원문 보기
hey this is Warren redlick thank you so much for watching we're going to talk about when to sell Tesla I'm wearing the Tesla nire t-shirt which you can get at Elon bits.com this is one of my best shirts one of my favorite shirts a lot more Tesla NS these days with the stock going up so a lot of people ask me whether it's about my Tesla stock or about my recent Tesla options purchases well Warren when do you sell and people have this idea that well when the stock goes up 3x or when the stock is 2x then I'm going to take profit you'll hear this term lot I'm taking profits there are people who when they when their options their options get to a certain point they take profits and there's a very common thing that people say that you never lost you never lose money taking profits and I don't agree with that I think that that's missing the point that if you take profits and then the stock keeps going up then you missed out on further gains one of the common questions people ask me is at what stock price would you sell you know if Tesla hit $1,000 a share would you sell if Tesla hit $2,500 a share would you sell like well is do I expect the company to continue growing if I expect the company to continue growing fast beyond the the share price then I'm not selling just because it hit a certain price that's not to me the right way of thinking it's like maybe it gets to 2500 a share and I see you know future growth to 5,000 a share and I see at that point Nvidia is likely Nvidia is likely to Triple well okay now I want to sell some Tesla stock and buy some Nvidia because now I see a better investment but it's not because it reaches a certain price point it's not because my portfolio reaches a certain size I don't think that's the the right approach so there's a couple situations when I think it makes sense to sell whether it's Tesla stock Tesla options or frankly any other financial asset the first thing is and this is the big one for people who are investing for the long term is when you see a better place to put your money so for example I recently did sell a Tesla option it was for June 2025 I'm not as confident about the short-term performance of Tesla stock going out to June 2025 I know what the stock would have to get to for that option to be 2x it was 2x at that moment like you know what I don't know if it's really going to get where it needs to get by June to get where I want so let me sell it and I bought options out to January 2027 I'm a lot more confident about January 2027 then I am about June of 2025 maybe I'm right maybe I'm wrong but the the whole idea is I thought you know that asset that has a strike date of January 2027 it's still Tesla I'm still investing in Tesla but I wasn't confident with that particular asset I was a lot more confident with this other asset same thing with selling stock or whatever you're selling like well do you think Nvidia is a better investment do you think lemonade is a better investment do you think paler is a better investment um for me I'm an all in investor I see Tesla's the best possible investment I do have some ideas that at some point maybe in 2025 I'm going to sell some of my Tesla stock and buy some neuralink try to get into neuralink because I think neuralink is going to be really big in the future I don't know whether I can make that happen I think I can make that happen and if I can that that might be worth doing with a percentage of my portfolio about 5% of my portfolio so that's an example like would I sell Tesla stock if I thought I could get into this um it's kind of like diversification into another Elon company could I get into boring company you know maybe that would make sense um I know I like SpaceX I don't know that I'm going to invest in SpaceX though but neuralink for that that's an example so when you see another stock that you would rather buy that you feel more comfortable with or it's close like right now I'm basically all in Tesla if I believe that Invidia was going to grow just as fast as Tesla and I was as confident in the growth of Nvidia as I am of Tesla then it would make sense to sell some Tesla stock and buy Nvidia right if there's some other stock out there I think it's going to perform even close to as well as Tesla then diversifying into that other stock would make sense but I see Tesla by 2030 being easily a 10x and maybe a X or more so it I don't see any other investment that's going to perform that well and even with the the all kinds of bumps in the road they going to happen economic things government things there's all kinds of things are going to happen I'm still more confident in Tesla growing faster and larger than any other investment I can see that I have access to so that's one when you see another investment that you feel confident is competitive or better as an investment than Tesla then it would make sense to at least sell some Tesla stock and buy this other investment like paler I don't get it I I sort of get the company but I don't understand the growth story lemonade I personally think Lemonade's long-term business is going to be shot because there there won't be car insurance in a robo taxi world so they they might make money in the next 5 10 years but long term I think they're done I think Nvidia is a great company and I think they're going to grow a lot but are they going to 10x are they going a 20x or is it like a 3X and like with Tesla I don't believe the competition is coming stuff is there compet ition coming for NVIDIA I'm not as confident that they're not going to face competition I think they're doing really well I think they've got modes I think they innovate faster than anybody else but there's others gunning for it I think it's less difficult to compete with Nvidia than it is to compete with Tesla on Robo taxi and Optimus maybe I'm wrong but that's my take so for me I don't see another place to put my money that's a a more competitive investment for the future the second reason that I would sell Tesla stock and that you might tell sell Tesla stock is when you need the money for something in the real world so for example in April or so I expect to sell some Tesla it might be the options that I have I might I might sell something to buy a model y we are currently living near a transit station we don't really need a car so I don't currently own a Tesla I did look I was close to buying a Tesla and I was just like you know I can't justify selling the stock for this we're not going to use the car that much we drive like you know once a month we go on a on a a road trip trip and then some months we go to another country and we're not going on a road trip so what's the point if you're going to take if you're going to drive the car three days a month do you really need to buy one that's that was the problem there but coming in in April May I think we're going to be moving to a PL I'm not sure we might stay here but we might move somewhere where we don't have access to a transit station and then you know we're going to need a car we'll see what other Tesla options are out there I don't see myself buying another EV if I'm going to buy I could it's tempting to buy like a byd AO3 because then I would have to sell less stock right and the by AT3 if where I think we're going a city car would be good enough but I still if I'm going to do it I'm going to buy a Tesla so that's one example is like I'm going to buy a Tesla that's a reason people have said Warren why don't you buy a house I personally don't think it makes sense to own a house right but if you had that dream property and you had that dream idea for something you wanted to build well then you sell the stock and you build what you want to build because that's what you want to live in but not as an investment because to me real estate is not a competitive investment so the the investment side of the theory that I'm going to buy real estate because in 10 years this is going to be worth double well in 10 years Tesla's going to 10x so I'm paying rent I I prefer renting and renting gives you a lot of freedom to move if you own something it's hard to sell sometimes for me that's not a solution but it might be your kid needs you need to spend some money on your kid you need something for your family when you don't have and and like for me I'm making enough money from YouTube and x and the daily Li and and patreon and by the way please support me on the daily Li patreon as an ex subscriber as a YouTube channel member but as I am making enough on those platforms and that as a content creator I make a lot but I make enough that I don't really have to spend out of my assets sort of like breaking even roughly maybe once a year I have to take a small amount out but it's not much but if you need to finance your cost of living by selling Tesla stock well then you know if you don't have another way of fin ing your cost of living that would make sense too I do want to say that my vision for the long term is at some point Tesla has reached so much and I'm at a certain point where okay let's say I have $10 million in Tesla stock in the future I don't have 10 million yet in case you are wondering but I do think I'm going to get to 10 million I have this theory about how you spend out of your assets and the theory is basically let's suppose you didn't hold Tesla stock at this point you got 10 million you sell it all and you put it in conservative Investment Portfolio that earns about 5% a year that's reliable you're fairly confident you're going to make 5% a year on average over the next 20 years then you can take out 5% a year for your own personal spending and live a comfortable life and if you have 10 million that's $500,000 a year now for me I get to that point I'm probably not selling test the stock I'm probably not going to the conservative portfolio but I'm probably going to limit myself to the 5% spending and if I get to 10 million and I'm spending $500,000 a year I'm not going to cry right I don't know that I could spend $500,000 I Hest struggle with like how would I spend that much but that's sort of the idea like you get to a certain point you're retired and you've got to live off your assets you want to try to guide your spending to not take more than 5% of your assets a year if you've got five years left to live and you don't have anybody to give the money to let to inherit the money then sure go have a party spend it on like crazy but like I don't really know how to spend money in that volume like you if I bought a private jet where would I fly you know the yacht I'm not a yacht guy like I you know don't I don't drink I don't smoke don't go to hookers don't do drugs you know eating out can only you can only burn so much money going to nice restaurants so you know I I find it challenging to do that you you sell because you see another asset you want to buy that you think is a better performing asset than what you have which is unlikely or or at least close so that you you know have some additional diversification in your portfolio I got this one that's going to grow this way I've got this one that's going to grow that way you can diversify if they distinct uh ways they're going to grow and then I need money for spending then you just got to be careful not to spend too much control your spending so you're not taking too much out and I think there's one other Theory which is you're planning for your family's future and you have this pile of Tesla stock and you're like you know I want to set aside something for my family that's not as volatile as Tesla as as confident as I am in Tesla you know this balanc portfolio is more reliable for the future for providing for my children my grandchild my my wife whatever you you might set aside something there and that might be weighted differently that might be you know half S&P 500 and half bonds or something like that I don't personally see myself doing that but I think that might be a sensible thing to do if you're setting you know creating a trust for family members something along those lines for Estate Planning and that's a conversation you would have to have with your estate planning lawyer about you know how can I do this and still be heavily invested in Tesla stock and and you know because there's a fiduciary obligation on whoever runs the trust to manage the trust in a safe Manner and if you are too heavily invested in one stock in a trust somebody might say you're not managing the trust properly and I don't know whether it would or wouldn't be a problem that's something you would talk to a trust lawyer about you know me personally the joke is I'm never going to sell but of course I will sell for those other reasons if the time comes I don't expect to see any other asset worth investing in in the near-term medium-term future you know when Tesla hits $5,000 $110,000 a share you know I'm going to constantly look around and see if I see something that impresses me but until that happens I'm sticking with Tesla except when I need money for certain purposes and so far that hasn't been a significant issue for me check out the t-shirts the Tesla t-shirts at Elon bits.com please support me as a subscriber on X as a YouTube channel member on patreon or on the daily Li waren r. locals.com thank you so much for watching
Comments 0