저자: WarrenRedlich · 외국인
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테슬라 주가가 한 달간 약 50% 급등(800달러대→1235달러)했으나 단기 고점 여부는 알 수 없다고 강조. 2030년 차량 2,000만 대, 로보택시 사업(연 2만~5만 달러 수익 가정), 에너지 저장 등을 근거로 장기 가치를 주당 1만~10만 달러로 추정. 장기 보유 의사를 밝히며 2026년경 주가가 과열(4만 달러 수준)되면 매도 가능성을 언급. 투자 자문이 아니라고 명시.
다듬은 글
and as i said where in any locations where there's not enough supply for sharing uh will tesla will just make its own cars um and add them to the network in that place in our own fleet i don't know i guess long term we have probably on the order of 10 million vehicles hey this is warren redlich i just wanted to make a short video talking about the recent rise in tesla stock we've all seen it going up pretty fast and i wanted to cover that really quickly you can see that tesla has gone up from under 800 a share to now 1235 dollars a share that's a more than 50 jump in a month so there's a tendency for people to think that it's hit some sort of maximum that this is a peak that you want to sell high and buy low and i can't tell you what to do i can't tell you what the right decision is for you i want to try to give some long-term perspective if you're thinking very short term at some point it's going to dip stocks go up stocks go down you can't know whether it's going to dip now from 1200 and something to drop down to a thousand again or whether it's going to go up to 1500 and then dip down to 1300 you just can't know there are people who think they know no one knows we might be at a local maximum we might still be rising to another local maxim so are you a short-term investor looking to make money on the trades or are you a long-term investor looking to buy and hold you know my view that tesla is the next tesla and we have a long way to go up right we're on a rise now but there's a lot more to go if you think that in 2030 tesla will produce 20 million vehicles if you think that in 2030 tesla will have a robo taxi fleet of 10 million or maybe even 100 million robo taxis making 20 to 50 000 in profit a year and you do the math on what that means in terms of 500 billion to 2 trillion dollars in gross profit on the robo taxi network alone if you do the math and you think you know i think tesla's going to have one terawatt hours of energy storage business or three terawatt hours of energy storage business in 2030 and you put that together and you think you know what i think teslabot might actually happen and they might sell a hundred million tesla bots a year we we don't know what this market is they might have a fleet of tesla bots that they're renting out we it's really hard to model teslabot but if you look at those numbers just just even 20 million vehicles a year then this 1200 share price is low because what we're going to see is as tesla scales production as tesla grows they're also managing to be more efficient about their production and profits are growing faster than sales and revenue revenue and sales are growing fast but profit is actually growing faster because as you open a factory in berlin you're reducing your transportation costs of delivering products to europe as you expand in china you're delivering the factory in china only supplies china you're reducing the transportation cost of getting your products to your customers in china as you develop your supply chain locally around your factory you're reducing the cost of producing your vehicle so the cost of selling the vehicles of producing and selling the vehicles getting the vehicles to customers is going down while the price is holding steady you're going up so tesla's profit is going up faster than revenue and sales so when you're looking down the road to 2030 if you're a buy and hold investor you just don't worry about the dips and the jumps so am i happy that the stock is up to 1200 or 1230 or whatever it's at today sure that's good news does it really matter for the long term when i'm looking out five years and 10 years no i see five years from now tesla's making 10 million vehicles a year and has a fleet of robo taxis running and they're making ridiculous money and they're making money on selling dojo's ai training services to other companies and they're making money on the robo taxi fleet there's so many different ways that tesla has to grow maybe they're going to have an hvac system they're going to sell the residential customers they'll be making money on mega pack they're making money on solar and powerwall there's so many different ways that this business grows fast and large and this 1.2 trillion dollar market cap is going to seem like chump change when tesla is a 5 10 20 trillion dollar company with that said this is not professional investment advice i'm not a professional investment advisor i'm telling you how i look at it i see it as a long-term investor i have my stock in an ira and two other accounts i am not planning on selling my stock until 2030 unless something really unusual happens the one thing that i think could happen and we're nowhere near there yet is it from my perspective is if the stock price overshoots so we get to 2026 and i think that tesla should be worth 20 000 a share but wall street has overreacted and tesla's trading at 40 000 a share that's a scenario where at that point i'm probably going to sell some stock i might sell all of it it sort of depends looking at 2026 where do i think it's going then i think you have to look at where do i think this stock is going where do i think this company is going what do i think the value will be in five years ten years down the road and then you compare well what what's the share price now if i think it's going to be a twenty thousand dollar stock in 2030 then why the heck would i sell at 1200 or 1300 a share now you know it's there's it doesn't make sense and where are you going to put that money that's going to give you a better return long term that is a challenge now starlink does an ipo doesn't make sense to sell some tesla stock to buy into that you get an opportunity to invest in the boring company i think these are two very very big growth companies with a lot of potential maybe it makes sense to diversify into other elon businesses neuralink beyond meat you know there's some other companies out there that are very innovative if you see somewhere you want to invest then that might be a good choice if you need money right you need the money because you're going to buy a house one guy on twitter said he was selling half a stock he's going to buy a house in redwood city california okay houses in redwood city california really expensive probably a good investment all right not the choice i would make but i respect that choice but if you're just selling because you think well it's too high too high for what you can't value how high is too high it's it's not it's not possible to do that unless you have a fundamental valuation of the company and you're looking at this company and saying how big is this company going to get how fast what revenue does that produce what profit does that produce and so on when i just my models people who follow my channel you look at my models the battery revenue model the robo taxi model i see tesla going to ten thousand dollars a share twenty thousand dollars a share even fifty or a hundred thousand dollars a share depending on how things break out so 12 1300 a share is still cheap from my perspective there's no reason to sell at this point for me i don't need the money i'm not buying a house i don't have some particular need i do have other money i have income from this channel i have other sources of income i i don't i don't spend a lot i'm you know i'm doing this to generate wealth to take care of myself in my future when i might no longer be able to generate income and to take care of my children and my family and so on and and those needs are not immediate if you can get to a point in your life where you don't have the immediate needs and you can afford to invest some money then you buy and hold like the idea of playing the game of trying to guess where the high is and trying to guess where the low is that's a very very hard game to play so those are some thoughts i hope this is helpful to you as you decide what to do with your tesla stock or whether you're going to buy into tesla stock in the near future i hope this is helpful to you if you like this video please check out some other videos please support this channel on patreon check the links in the description below check out my political channel on locals where i'm going to be doing a live stream this sunday my live stream from this channel is moving there check out the t-shirts at elonbits.com and the stainless steel mug and all that elonbits.com check out my book fair dui if you want to understand what happens in a traffic stop there's a link to this in the description below as well and thank you so much for watching
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