저자: WarrenRedlich · 외국인
요약 보기
Gary Black의 테슬라 목표가 380달러 분석을 비판하는 영상. Black이 로보택시와 옵티머스 가치를 0으로 두고 판매·마진 모델만 적용한 점을 지적하며, 로보택시 시장점유율(20%)과 휴머노이드 로봇 시장 규모(연 100만대) 가정이 보수적이라고 주장. 자신은 옵티머스 연 100만대·대당 10만달러 이상, 주당 가치 2,000~5,000달러 증가를 계산한다고 언급. 'Gary Black은 과거 방식에 갇혀 있다'고 비판.
다듬은 글
Gary's price Target is 380 compared to the street average at 275 Gary's price Target is below the current share price how is that bullish that that's not that's not bullish that's bearish start to model out how many cyber cabs could actually be in production what does FSD penetration look like when you get to 50 60% of all the Teslas out there the way Dan Dam knives as I jokingly refer to him talks about cyber cab and FSD instead of what's the value of a company that is selling rides these guys are still stuck on selling cars and Tesla's not going to be in the car selling business Tesla is going to be in the AI and Robotics business and their four-wheel robots are going to sell rides they may sell some cars but that's not the business story that Bulls understand basically what these guys do when they say well we're not factoring in Optimus is we're placing zero valuation on something that might be the most valuable thing created in the history of the world everything I see everything that Jeff sees when Jeff talks about it the valuation that goes with Optimus is so high that if you give it a 10% probability is still incredibly huge I build up my model I use volumes pricing margins zero value for selling rides zero zero value for Optimus it's volume and margin you he's still on the selling they're selling objects to customers and they're getting margin on their objects and he has no sense of what the value could be of selling rides he has no sense of what the value could be of selling Optimus what its real value is what the value is to the customer and then what that translates to and what customer will what the customer will pay for it and what you know what method would you sell it by would you sell it the robots directly would you sell robot Services over time there's a lot of ways that that's going to play out and he's apparently put zero thought into that in his valuation I don't add anything for robo taxi and I don't add anything for Optimus I don't add anything for robo attx I don't add anything for Optimus this is equivalent to saying look the company's telling us this is what they're going to do and I've assigned zero probability to them achieving this thing that they've told us they're going to do you got Elon Musk who repeatedly does things that people say can't be done now you have something that doesn't look like it's that far off looks pretty likely he's going to do it and by saying zero probabbly you're probability you're betting against Elon you're saying that Elon and the team the Tesla team will not get done something that people who are watching closely are saying they're almost there this is coming soon there's some probability they're going to get there before 2030 and Gary assigns it a zero probability that is not competent analysis when you're trying to analyze the future when you're trying to analyze the future the company is telling you this is what we're going to do and you say no they're not going to do that don't call that bullish you can't be a bull on Tesla if you say say they're not going to do what they say they're going to do that's bearish and it's frankly blind Barry glac okay Uber's got seven billion rides per year and lft has a billion rides per year that's eight billion rides and I put $10 a ride assume Tesla took 25% of it and then I say okay let's suppose Tesla could take 20% market share which is a lot because these guys are entrenched with their apps Uber and Lyft and regular taxis and wh are all high cost structure operations Robo taxi is going to be a much lower cost structure operation because you don't have to pay the human and in compared to whmo the cost of a whmo vehicle is very high weo delivers its service at a very high cost per ride but Tesla's got these Robo taxes coming you're going to be able to sell rides as low profitably as low as0 50 cents a mile but if they bring the price of a ride down to $2 a mile they undercut everyone else and what he's telling you is all these consumers are going to say well I've already got the Uber app what do I want to bother saving money for it's like like the the hurdle of installing an app on your phone is so large that 80% of customers will say ah I'll spend an extra 10 bucks a ride who cares I'll spend an extra five bucks a ride what what difference does it make it's hard to believe that this guy is considered a responsible professional investor and someone that people look to for advice on investing when he says something like well they're only going to get 20% market share when they introduce a vehicle that's going to deliver rides at far lower cost than everybody else it it's just nonsense the market for robots today is only about 500,000 robots so even if I used a million because they will grow the market and I assume 20,000 per robot and assume that um Tesla took 50% share of the robot market so his numbers for Optimus is a million a year at $20,000 a pop and again what did Elon say the world will have more robots than humans that's not a million a year that's not 10 million a year if you did a 100 million robots a year it would take 80 years to have more robots than humans it's not going to take 80 years the global market for humanoid robots is going to be in excess of a hundred million a year and Tesla's probably going to grab a majority of that market wrap your head around and the value created by the robot is way more than $20,000 right this is the kind of guy in 2013 I bought Amazon stock this is a guy who would say well maybe it'll go up 20% right maybe if they if they get their things in order but they're not really profitable yet I don't really see it right and and I saw it and I got a 13x if you don't try to see the future you won't see the future we can be wrong we can be wrong but the pro the future of Optimus is $1 million robots a year worth $100,000 a piece or more and you can say okay I don't think it's going to be that value but fine put a probability on on upside put some probability on an upside I've given you an upside I think Stephen Mark Ryan gives a similar approach I think CERN Basher gives a similar approach there's lots of people who put these numbers together and say you know this is going to be really really valuable he's got his way of doing things and anything that makes sense for the future anything about the future well that doesn't fit with my analysis yeah well maybe you need to rework your analysis you know people who are adding you know1 $200 $300 a price you know price Target because of Robo taxi and robots I don't know if they're doing the math yeah yeah we've all done the math and we're not coming up with 100 $200 $300 in increased valuation we're coming up with 2,000 3,000 $5,000 increased valuation per share okay Warren's a nobody Warren's a lunatic fine he doesn't listen to Warren he doesn't listen to Stephen Mark Ryan he doesn't listen to CERN Basher he doesn't listen to Dave Le who does he who is he getting these h1200 $300 price targets maybe Arin vest I think Arvest is much higher too where where is he even and does don't do the math I do the math all the time Stephen does the math CERN does the math we do the math he doesn't do the math because he just says it's not going to happen I don't see it you know it's not it's not it's it's a million it's not a big deal it's a million robots that you know they're get a 50% share and they'll make $20,000 a bot Well yeah if you come up if you I where did you get your numbers how did you come up with the market for humanoid robots is a million a year and that they're only worth $20,000 a piece what was your theory for Val because the market doesn't exist yet how did you determine that's the valuation it frustrates me that there's so many people who think that this guy is a leading analyst as Herbert put him a leading Tesla bull he's not a bull he doesn't understand the company he's not an analyst he he doesn't he doesn't apply sensible analysis to how you should think about the future he he's locked in the past
Comments 0