저자: 미상 · 외국인
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레이 달리오/브리지워터의 'Lost Decade(잃어버린 10년)' 경고를 소개하며, 주식시장이 장기간 저수익에 빠질 수 있다는 관점을 다룬 영상이다. 기업 이익률 측면: 최근 10년간의 경기 호황으로 기업들이 가격을 계속 올려 이익률이 높아졌으나, 브리지워터는 이 이익률이 현 경기 침체를 넘어 구조적으로 하락할 수 있다고 본다. 경기 전망: 진행자는 이번 충격이 단순한 영업 중단을 넘어 1929~1932년과 유사한 수준의 대공황 가능성이 있다는 견해에 동의하는 입장을 보인다. 실업률 상승과 소비 위축이 이익률 하락으로 이어진다는 논리다. 밸류에이션: 현재 S&P 500은 역사적 정상 밸류에이션 대비 약 두 배 수준으로 평가되어 과열되어 있으며, 2008년 금융위기 직전 매수자들이 원금을 회복하는 데 약 6년이 걸린 사례를 들어 재조정 시 장기간 회복이 지연될 수 있다고 설명한다. 세계화: 브리지워터는 지난 수십 년간 선진국 수익성의 주요 동력이었던 세계화가 정점을 지났다고 평가한다. 미·중 갈등과 팬데믹으로 다국적 기업들이 비용보다 공급망 신뢰성을 중시하며 공급망을 다변화·국내화하고 있으며, 인텔의 국내 투자 사례가 이를 보여준다. 중앙은행 변수: 반대로 연준이 시장과 경제를 최대한 지지하겠다는 입장이라는 점을 들어 반론 여지도 언급한다. 진행자는 장기 저수익이 실제로 나타날지는 확신하지 못한다고 밝히며, 향후 1~5년 이상의 시장 전망을 시청자 의견으로 남겨달라고 요청하며 마무리한다. 결론: 달리오의 장기 저수익 논리는 설득력이 있으나, 연준 지원 가능성과 시장 예측의 불확실성을 감안해 단정은 피한다.
다듬은 글
hey guys welcome back to the channel interesting topic for today's video Ray Dalio is coming out and he is certainly doubling down on his his views around the shutdown and the economy moving forward his fund Bridgewater associates came out last week and said that pretty much a reversal of the strong growth seen over the years in the US corporate profit margins could lead to a lost decade for equity investors now we know that Ray Dalio and Bridgewater associates have basically been everywhere recently talking about how they believe that we are actually due for some really big economic changes coming out of the shutdown and have actually pictured the the situation much worse than what most people do but it's really interesting to see them come out and you know saying that we're going to lose equity investors are going to have a Lost Decade like that's a very big call they say that the margins which have produced a big chunk of the excess return of equities over cash could face a shift that would go beyond the current cyclical downturn in earnings so what does this mean well first of all let's talk about profit margin profit margin is essentially talking about how much of your revenue do you get to keep so for example if Apple sells an iPhone for $1000 it might cost them seven hundred and fifty dollars say to actually build that iPhone and advertise and distribute and all that sort of stuff so if they can sell it for a thousand and it cost them 750 then they've got two hundred and fifty out of the thousand that they get to keep so they've got a 25 percent profit margin now what we've seen over the past 10 years is a bit of an economic boom time so essentially everyone's getting a little bit richer you know unemployment's been really low so everyone's making a good healthy wage you know corporate profits are going up and asset prices are going up everyone's just getting a little bit richer and because everyone individually is getting a little bit richer what it means for companies out there is it means that they can start to charge a little bit more and a little bit more and a little bit more for the same product so that's them boosting their profit margins now what Ray Dalio is fund has said is that the margins which have provided a big chunk of the excess return of equities over cash could face a shift that would go beyond the car cyclical downturn in earnings so while we're seeing a downturn in corporate earnings now because of the shutdown and businesses haven't been up and running recently Bridgewater associates are basically saying no no no it's it's gonna be worse than that they're seeing this event not only as you know a business shutdown but a real economic downturn like a real economic downturn where unemployment rates obviously stay high people are earning less so therefore they start raining in their spending asset values drop in it etc which means that the flow in effect is that companies start to make lower earnings and they can't make those nice high profit margins anymore because quite frankly no one's willing to pay those high prices for products because spending is reduced from a practical level do you think that we're headed into a global depression yes but I want to be careful about what I use the word you know like to be work though the word is in evocative word yeah I'd be scary and so on so what do you mean by a depression okay something like happened in the nineteen thirty so just to repeat 1929 to 1932 there was a fall in the economy and a very double-digit unemployment rate and a magnitude a fall in the economy like about ten percent do I think we're in that yes so how does this all relate to the idea of having a lost decade in the stock market well what it's kind of referring to is firstly what we're seeing with the stock market right now is that it's the current market values are just so detached from reality it's insane if you look at historical valuation measures like what we've been talking about in the last few videos investors that are say buying into the S&P 500 right now essentially saying that right now we are willing to pay twice as much for our stocks as historical normals would allow us to so essentially what they're saying is the outlook right now for the stock market is pretty much two times as good as historical normal conditions now personally I don't agree with that and obviously neither does Ray Dalio or Bridgewater associates so what they're saying here with the idea of the Lost Decade is that if investors were to really wake up and recognize that this is much more of a serious economic event one in which you know we aren't just going to see corporate earnings and corporate profit margins just bounce back to the levels that they are at say six months ago if that doesn't happen if we don't see that beautiful perfect recovery then it's likely that the stock market will get re priced quite harshly and because it is a full an economic downturn an economic event where unemployment is high and incomes are low and spending is low then it might take some time for conditions to return to the way that they were even six months ago so what this Lost Decade business is all about is is essentially saying that we might be at a period of time where if you were an investor now it might take you several years if the market were to fall it might take you several years to get back to where you were kind of like when we talk about those investors that were buying just before the start or even leading up to the start of the GFC in 2008 2009 it took them a good six years to get back to where they once were now interestingly to add to the comments out of Bridgewater they also said that globalization perhaps the largest driver of developed world profitability over the last few decades has already peaked now the us-china conflict in global pandemic are further accelerating moves by multinationals to reassure and duplicate supply chains with a focus on reliability as opposed to just cost optimization now I found this really interesting because to me this actually makes a lot of sense because what we've been going through with the lock down companies have realized that there is a real value in having that reliability of manufacturing over just being as cost-effective as possible in the manufacturing process so even though it's more expensive there is a real value in having some manufacturing overseas but some manufacturing at home so you're manufacturing chain is diversified and we've already started to see that you can even look at a case example like Intel where Intel has announced that they're actually going to put significant investments in hometown manufacturing as opposed to just going the ultimate cost-efficient way of just going to an overseas factory and getting all their products manufactured over there and obviously with what Bridgewater said in this quote they believe that this trend is going to continue and get bigger and bigger so much so that they went out on a limb and said that they think the peak of globalization is already past us maybe overseas manufacturing will become less of a thing in the future so it's it's interesting because it kind of makes sense of what we've seen even just from the shutdown is there is a definite power for a country to be relatively self-sufficient so overall I think there's some really interesting insights coming out of this note from Bridgewater and I have to say that it kind of does make sense now I don't know if we will see a full decade of low stock market return so I don't think I could go out on a limb and predict that but it's really interesting because their rationale does make sense based on the economic figures that we are currently seeing so overall I'd love to hear what you guys think on this do you feel as though the market will be in for a rough time not maybe not only in say the next three or six months or whatever because that's all up in the air but I'm thinking more over the next year the next two years five years ten years I'd love to hear from you guys obviously the other side of the coin is that at the moment we are seeing from central banks particularly the Fed over in the United States they're basically coming out and saying we're going to do everything in our power to help this market along and help the economy along as much as possible for the foreseeable future so that's kind of the argument on the flip side but I'd love to hear your thoughts do you reckon that you know the market is just going to stay strong and the federal just keep supporting it do you feel as though we are going to see a period of maybe not just a short term but a long term period of sustained low returns and the stock market in the future do you agree with what Ray Dalio on Bridgewater have come out and said here do you agree with Ray Dalio rationale behind the whole shutdown I'd be super interested to hear what you guys have to say about this definitely drop that stuff down in the comment section below of course leave a like on the video if you did enjoy it it really helps me out I super appreciate it it definitely does help the video out in the YouTube algorithm and it's the easiest way to support the channel so I super appreciate it and make sure as well if you haven't checked out profit all links are in the description if you'd like to learn either how to be a passive investor or you want to be more of a stock picker and active investor then definitely check out those courses that are linked down in the description below but I think that'll just about do me for today thanks very much for watching guys and I'll see you all in the next video
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