저자: KevinSarkar?미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
중국의 AI 오픈소스 추격과 과잉 데이터센터 투자 리스크를 지적하며 Morgan Stanley 데이터센터 익스포저 축소 검토, Oracle CDS 급등, OpenAI-AMD-Nvidia 연쇄 자금 흐름의 취약성을 언급. 연준 금리인하 가능성(87%)과 고용지표(Challenger 감소) 등을 근거로 단기적으로 상승 우호적 시장을 전망. 팔란티어는 밸류 과열이지만 선호하는 AI 기업으로 언급. 개인 투자자는 ETF·금·테슬라·엔비디아를 매수 중이나 애플은 매도 우위라고 설명. 영상 말미 본인 추천 종목(플랫폼 회원 분석 대상)이 24~25% 상승했다고 언급하고 추가 매수 의사 표명.
다듬은 글
We're 6-days away. 6-days away from the Federal Reserve likely cutting. And yeah, my coffee's empty, so I'm pissed. But, let's keep it simple today. We've got China eating our lunch. We got Morgan Stanley panicking about AI data centers. We've got the Mom Dommy effect actually having the inverse effect, which who could have predicted that?
And we've got retail buying pretty much every stock except for one, which we'll reveal in this. And then of course, which I still have to make a separate video on, the Alpha report. Shout out to all the course members, we smashed it on a really good fundamental analysis three uh three days ago with the stock now up over over, probably somewhere around 24% uh in just the last three days, which is insane.
Uh also bought a bunch of it. But anyway, so I'm a little biased. But anyway, let's get into the topic for today. So, first uh I want to start with Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley is considering offloading some of its data center exposure. Now, this has been done already by some companies like Citigroup and JPMorgan, so maybe it's not the biggest of deals, but there are these fancy things called risk transfer arrangements to keep these bank capital ratios in line.
And they're basically trying to get a lot of this junk bond lending they're doing to these data centers off their plates. And this is aligning at the same time with sort of China eating our lunch because in America, what we're throwing money at right now are big data centers. And John Thornhill suggests we could be throwing money at the worst possible thing.
China is throwing money at open-source models. And so is Mistral. Mistral, which isn't mentioned I actually think they are. Mistral? Nope, they're not even mentioned in this article. Mistral is the European Union's version of DeepSeek in China. And they're expanding their open-source models. They just announced new flagship models called the Mistral large three and a smaller suite of Ministral three models optimized for edge computing applications for drones and and whatever on-device AI.
Uh and this is in real contrast to all of the money that's going to these massive data center projects mostly for proprietary LLMs at companies like OpenAI or Google. And so people are wondering, why are we throwing so much money at basically duplicating all of these proprietary models? Maybe we should be throwing money at open-source models, and then we can consolidate these data centers and stop throwing so much money into all of them.
My long-term belief is that LLMs are going to be no different from dictionaries. Everybody's going to have an LLM. They're all going to be the same. And it's not LLMs that you want to play when it comes to AI because those are all going to be commoditized. I think you want the downstream service companies that are actually providing real net worth boosts to the companies that are using the product.
And I'm not talking about Bill Gates's daughter's startup. Apparently, you know, cuz she started her startup in a dorm room, you know, humble beginnings here, humble beginnings. Bill Gates's daughter starting a an AI search startup to go find you deals for crap that you want to shop with Hailey Bieber, Kris Jenner, Sheryl Sandberg from Meta, Sara from Spanx, you know, very humble beginnings here.
But not talking about that kind of AI. Talking about businesses that actually make money for their customers. I mean, I frankly think Palantir is a perfect example of that. But there are a lot of companies that do this. And so picking the right winners in that space, that's where I think the biggest opportunities are.
You know, whether you're looking at you know, some people are really into Salesforce. Some people are into Snow. Some people are into Path. You kind of have to evaluate where that money is. But I think that's a much better direction than you know, caring what Sam Altman is up to because I think Sam Altman, honestly, he is like kind of a gang guy for billionaires.
That I tweeted about this yesterday, but I think that billionaires are having like this gang warfare. And instead of like shooting each other or fighting over drugs, what they're actually doing is they're just trying to make each other look bad. Like Sam Altman is now trying to explore competitor for SpaceX.
And it looks like so far while talks ramped up as of the fall, they kind of fizzled since then. So it's probably not going anywhere, but it shows the pettiness of someone like Sam Altman. And it makes you wonder if Sam Altman is trying to fight Elon on SpaceX, is he so distracted that that's why GPT is sort of falling behind Gemini now?
And Sam Altman is literally the face of this $1.4 trillion we want to blow on more data centers, which is probably just misallocated money while China is literally eating our lunch. I mean, look at this. Out of 74 high-impact technology sectors, China is leading us on 66. We lead in eight. Okay, so we get eight, China gets 66.
Part of that in my opinion is because of sort of the Trumpian method right now of let's just let all the AI tech bros guide policy in the White House. And so you get shills like David Sacks who prop up their own startups in the White House basically centrally planning policy. And ironically, we are way concentrating risk at data centers.
This probably going to lead to a really nasty burst in data centers and LLMs. That doesn't make me bearish AI. I'm actually really bullish AI, not just because that's also what my startup does, but that's providing, you know, real net worth to people. Uh but you know, companies like Palantir, although their valuation is way too high right now.
Those are the kinds of AI that I really like. Now, this though is a red flag. You know, Oracle CDSs, while they've cooled to about 126 in the last two days, we just hit an all-time high on Oracle CDSs. And I think part of it has to do with what's going on with companies like Morgan Stanley going, we need to bail out and we need to reduce our exposure to these data centers.
It's exactly why I like Meta. I think Meta is not only going to be a recipient of LLMs trying to advertise when they compete with each other, but you know, Meta is brilliant for moving their data center debt to Blue Owl. Let private equity hold it. But all of that is a risk factor somewhere. Because if Sam Altman blows up, he's going to take a 1.4 trillion dollars of capex plans with him.
It's going to take AMD down with him. Lisa Su's AMD sales projections are in part based on their belief that they are going to pump chips to OpenAI in Q3 of next year after the Nvidia check comes in. Yeah, I said that right. The Nvidia check is supposed to clear Q2 of 2026 at OpenAI. Then OpenAI wants to buy AMD chips starting in Q3.
So if Sam Altman goes, the whole cycle falls, right? Well, we we know that's a big risk factor. And it's interesting seeing CDSs continue to rise as of two days ago. And now Morgan Stanley wanting to dump out. Now, what's also fascinating is no, not Mindy Smiley. I have no idea why I have this blonde up on my screen here anymore.
But that we are going to get this 87% chance of a cut in six days. We expect to get this cut. We're going to get this cut. I actually don't think it's going to be that hawkish anymore of a cut. And it's one of the reasons why I've been relatively bullish since November 18th. I made a video on November 18th called buy, and I talked about how most of the bad catalysts were behind us.
In the short-term, I think we're bullish going through the Fed meeting. And that bullishness might actually continue through the Fed meeting because of those ADP numbers that were weak. Unemployment claims are very volatile. We got seasonal adjustments. I'm not really worried about that. But something else that's bullish, frankly, is you should be looking at the Challenger report.
The Challenger report, yes, is bad in the fact that it's some of the worst numbers we've seen for November since 2022 and 2008. But we've collapsed in job cut numbers from the October really bad numbers. Like the October numbers were so bad Donald Trump doesn't even want you to have the October job numbers.
I think there's a lot of truth to that, by the way. Some of that is jade. Some of like I'd call that probably 50% jade, 50% truth on that one in my opinion. But anyway, this Challenger report this morning on job cuts, it wasn't that bad. We you know, we came down off this crazy October peak and we're kind of in like a normal range, a more normalized range for job cuts here.
So the Challenger report was bullish. ISM and PMIs were bullish. The the earnings that we got from some AI plays yesterday were fantastic, and there were some real gems hidden over there. And JPMorgan tells us basically retail is buying. 75% of retail investments at JPMorgan are going into ETFs. A lot of people are rushing into gold, gold ETFs.
Flows into Tesla and Nvidia continue, which I think there's a risk of those. And ironically, you're seeing outflows at Apple. Which I actually like Apple. I I I I don't have exposure to Apple, so I'm not like talking my book here. I actually think Meta is one of the cheapest of the Mag 7s. But uh yeah, retail investors are consistent sellers of Apple throughout the year, whereas they're consistent buyers of basically Tesla and you know, certainly Google and Nvidia.
That's at least based on JPMorgan's retail radar, which is very interesting. But uh are there dislocations in this market? Yeah. And I actually think the way to look at this right now is you kind of have to go deal hunting. You go look and say, "Okay, well, where are we able to buy things at discounted valuations?" Like, you know, when I look at uh this this Bill Gates' daughter raising $30 billion at a hundred eighty bill sorry, $30 million at a hundred eighty million dollar valuation for you know, a Google Chrome extension, I want to vomit.
I'm like this is like this is nepotism at its finest. You know, I'd rather talk about the irony of what's going on in New York, which we'll touch on really quickly. But, it makes me think I need to get a new valuation done for House Hack because I think our valuation is going to be a lot higher, but I think I probably should go uh I should buy more of our more House Hack before I do that.
Uh but anyway, not a solicitation to invest. Read the offering disclosures at househack.com. But anyway, look at this. Not an irony or not a surprise at all. Manhattan luxury apartment market surges after Mom and Daddy wins. What did I tell you before this guy won? Before this guy won, I made videos every single time and I said every time a Democrat wins, they suck at expanding supply so much that the smart money ends up buying because they know the Democrats are going to constrict supply even more.
And so with little new supply in prime neighborhoods, I mean, obviously he hasn't actually taken office yet. It's not like he's been able to build supply. But usually, like wealthy people know this. When Democrats win, supply gets constrained for housing. And the best move is actually to buy and not to sell.
So we're looking at, you know, what is $4 million dollars get you because that's what the number was, record a surge in $4 million dollar purchases. Here's One Wall Street where you could buy a two-bedroom apartment on Wall Street, which is a great address, One Wall Street. I mean, this is a fantastic address.
You I mean, I actually I mean, this is pretty modern contemporary. I'd call this contemporary design. This is not your most like timeless because it's too contemporary. It's too in right now, like all these designs in the cabinets or whatever. But you know, it's nice. It's not for everyone. It's a little cold.
But uh you know, ooh, it's got Miele appliances. Dude, those are a pain in the ass to repair. Uh but anyway, uh like this is just an example of what you get for $4 million. Sales of these things are surging right now after Mom and Daddy won. Not a surprise because again, usually you don't build build under a Democrat.
You know, then you got Pete Hegseth who's in trouble trouble for using a signal. This is old news. He's a dumbass for using signal. He doesn't He wouldn't know compliance if it bit him on the ass. Then you've got Emmanuel Macron who, according to Candace Owens, is married to a man in disguise. But anyway, Emmanuel Macron is talking to Xi Jinping basically saying Trump is effing up Europeans' relationship with uh China and it's all Trump's fault.
Whatever. Uh and yeah, that pretty much covers what the hell is going on today. So, uh you know, broadly, shout out to everybody in the uh oh damn, it's up even more right now. Shout out to everybody in the course member live stream. We did a really good If you're If you haven't looked at, look at our course member analysis on Monday in the stock analysis tab.
We did a phenomenal analysis a fundamental analysis where like this is really bullish. Every signal is pointing to bullish on this. It just smashed on earnings. It's up like 25% since then. And I think if this catches the momentum wave, it's going to it's going to skyrocket even more. I hope it goes down so I could buy more.
That's all. That's all. I just bought like $70,000 of the damn thing. But anyway, that's it. That's it. That's all I got for us today. Okay? So, cheers. I got to go get some more coffee because obviously, I'm running low. And then I got to go to an open house because it's broker tour day and there's a fixer-upper on broker tour a few minutes away.
And you know what happens. Sniffing. I sniff the blood. In fact, it even came up in our deal finder. Uh our net worth sniping deal finder brought this. Uh I don't want to give it away. But um here's just I guess a quick screeny of of part of it. Um yeah, I'll just zoom in enough so it doesn't give it away.
But our deal finder even brought it up uh and uh you know, this is just a a quick little back end super zoomed in that you can kind of see the funky kitchen in there, the reinvest net worth boosting score. And uh you know, soon we'll actually be doing the net worth calcs as well. That's coming in 2026.
So we have some really exciting things going on here uh for for real AI, not some stupid dumb browser extension that's going to go shop for clothing for you. This shops net worth for you. Sniping net worth. Uh anyway, you can read about that over at househack.com. I got to go. I need more coffee. I'll see you all on the next one. Goodby.
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