저자: Kevin · 외국인
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최근 비트코인 상승은 비트코인 선물 ETF 출시에 따른 소셜 모멘텀·단기 투기 수요 때문이며, 관심이 식으면서 하락 조정 중이라고 봄. BTC 지지선 58,000 및 54,353 제시. 이더리움은 약 3,400~3,700 부근, 카르다노는 2달러 부근 또는 그 아래에서 매수 관심을 언급. 2022년은 크립토에 긍정적이라는 장기 낙관론 유지. 현재 포트폴리오 비중 BTC 20%, ADA 40%, ETH 40% 언급.
다듬은 글
everyone kevin here so cryptocurrencies are starting to fall and a lot of folks are wondering wait a minute what's happening why are cryptocurrencies falling well in this video i'm going to take a stab at addressing why i believe cryptocurrencies are falling but first this video is brought to you by block five you want to earn interest on your cryptocurrency deposits and get up to 250 totally for free go to medkevin.combf okay let's take a look at uh some background here so we just this week had peak potential short-term media for cryptocurrencies why and what does that mean well up until about a week ago we haven't had much mainstream discussion for cryptocurrency in mainstream tv fox cnbc local news stations cryptocurrencies just weren't super mainstream up until recently and they have been before it comes and goes in cycles right up until recently though because of the launch of the bitcoin futures etf my expectation and i have not looked yet but my expectation is that cryptocurrency related searches are probably starting to slow and we know that 70 of trading in bitcoin is done by institutions and when cryptocurrency or the cryptocurrency bitcoin falls others tend to follow down and we also know that institutions like to trade trends also known as social momentum so when social momentum slows prices can tend to fall as traders move to other opportunities and this is where what we're going to do is we're going to look at trends and we'll look at we'll do a little bit of ta to see where we might fall to then we look at well wait a minute where might the money actually be flowing to so let's take a look if i type in just bitcoin in google trends what we're really going to want to look for is something within the last 30 days here last 30 days we've got a good increase here all the way through the 19th so we actually don't have the last three days of data on the 30 day so we're gonna have to go down to the seven day and here on the seven day you can kind of get a feeling that on wednesday when we really went wednesday morning likely when we spent a lot of time talking about that bitcoin futures etf we got peak searches yesterday we were yesterday around the morning we we were about 20 lower and this morning we're about 40 percent lower so we're seeing that trend kind of slow down but where are we seeing a trend take off well try dwac for a moment this is where you have exactly the opposite happening a trend taking off so you've got social momentum potentially moving into some of these other opportunities and i want to show you because you might not think oh well you know why would somebody go from bitcoin to digital world well it's the same reason why the big losers right now in today's market which there are a lot of them but the big losers with the exception of those that had earnings or pre-earnings releases like snap and beyond me you have a lot of momentum place vinco ater intel had earnings so it doesn't count wishes uh momentum naked is momentum fuel cell camber embryon microvision sos btx qs all of these right here are momentum based plays including smile direct trade desk is an advertising related play that's going down because of the snapchat uh reveal but amc gamestop almost everything that is momentum based is down right now and so i'm making the argument that this fall in bitcoin is actually just a temporary sell-off by traders people who came in because of the hype around the bitcoin futures etf now we have the bitcoin futures etf the hype has left the trends are starting to fall and therefore the price of bitcoin is starting to rotate down now how far can we go down i personally believe 58 000 as a potential support level that we might hit it is not a very strong support level so if we break past 58 000 it's entirely possible that we're going to break down to about 54 353.
so i'm going to keep an eye on this but 54 353 you can see over here you've got a nice channel between this 58 and 54 region here in recent days this is the one hour chart if i go out to the day chart let me clear these because i know this is a little messy if i go out to the day chart looking at this without using some of my lines it would seem holding on to 60 obviously a big deal it's a psychological threshold as well so very important but otherwise looking at this without any lines and just trying to find a place that 54 looks like a pretty strong support level not only do we bounce off over here but we bottom out at 54 multiple times earlier in the year over here of course uh this right here this big summer crash this is when i did a lot of loading up on cryptocurrencies i took my portfolio from somewhere around two and a half percent to somewhere around seven percent in cryptocurrencies now so still not like over ten percent but much more bullish and great opportunities here to go shopping but that's hindsight right so now we've got to look forward to new opportunities remember that this low here was really driven by china fears of china banning anything related to cryptocurrencies essentially with the exception of hodling but any kind of transactions or mining there was a lot of fear happening over here just like we had a fud summer for tesla and i kept encouraging buy tesla my tesla by tesla uh usually it's when you're at peak fear is when you want to go shopping so right now you know folks folks were asking over the last few days should i buy bitcoin should i buy bitcoin look i don't i don't give financial advice on the internet but a uh something that i always look at is wait wait for the media to go away the last thing you want to do is you want to speculate into something when you're in a peak media session and so i do expect us to pull back and i think there'll be a nice opportunity to go shopping and going around that 54 000 to 58 000 range uh for bitcoin i think for ethereum let's go ahead and see if i can get any drawings on ethereum here so i have lines set for ethereum at 37.06 that's probably where we might fall to here more recently this might be an hour uh line in terms of why it was drawn but beyond that uh i don't have a lot of ta pre-drawn if i was going to look at the day chart uh yeah 37 37 seems to be a an area that i would look at a couple couple touch two three touch points here uh certainly uh sitting above that uh or at that 34 number we tend to stay channeled here you've got resistance over here you got support over here and again you're looking away from the summer flood season probably looking for a discount more in line with potentially even this upward trend that we have right here so if i draw a trend line here and i grab a little bit of ta over here maybe we could get to yeah that 35 34 35 level again i'm going to remove this because it's just not that well of a drawn line let me go down to the hour level here let's see how the hour looks see this is where you could see the lines working a lot better uh all because i usually draw these off of the hour and so we got our bounce here 4k 4k is a psychological touch point we've broken that we're now sitting on the 200-day moving average basically bouncing right off that 200-day moving average this also the 200-day moving average kind of reiterates that trend yeah you can see that that trend line looks very very similar that we drew here for um very similar to the 200-day moving average so that again reiterates somewhere 35 something like that for ethereum i'm going to jump over to ada ada here ada had a little bit of an issue where we had our summer collapse and weeble doesn't show any historical here but there is also historical but anyway we had our summer collapse and we had a lot of hype going into the smart contracts this is the same thing that i expect to happen with btc and we're already seeing that now is you had a run out of the summer dip got over here to uh you know to above two dollars doubled our money here he did triple though at one point but a lot of this right here this fat i like to call this the tumor this excess tumor right here is really in my opinion a result of hype around the alonso hard fork so that's that's my expectation here for uh ada and looks like tesla just got uh credit upgraded by the s p that's pretty good but another thing you're gonna see here is you're starting to kind of channel here on ada you're channeling between 208 and about 230 is a little high let's say 208 to 215 you're probably in a channel over here so i don't know that i would add to ada right now unless i saw a catalyst coming or i saw a breakdown under this channel so for example if we broke under 208 went back to 200 i start two dollars or under two that's probably when i'd be a little bit more interested now i haven't done sol or salan technical analysis yet but i'm willing to do that this is actually my first time looking at ta here we did have a little bit of a run-up i was going to post a fundamental analysis well i shouldn't say fundamental more of a coin analysis yesterday now solana uh i still need to make that video i i've not finished filming it yet though i have researched everything and i'll just give a little bit of a preview i'm i'm impressed i do have some concerns but i'm impressed and my concern has nothing to do with the stupid uh you know centralization issue i will be addressing that fear not but i'm actually bullish on solana so i like this a lot you know i think just on on very basic simple ta here i think you've got a very easy uh support at 178 or sorry resistance level at 178 but that could end up serving as a support is what i meant to say you've got you know maybe you just don't have a lot of support in these price ranges here let me go down to one hour that doesn't help me a lot either i'd probably say sitting around this 200-day moving average is probably closer to where i'd want to buy it it regularly does fall under the 200-day moving average so i probably wouldn't want to buy it of course you know you could be trading above the 200-day moving average for a while here i mean look at this you went from 66 in august to the next time you fell below the 200-day moving average was 168.
so and then you fell to 135 116 so you would have missed out on on a 2x trying to just trade with the 200-day moving average so you do have a risk to consider there looking at the 200-day i don't personally love buying on super hype moments so i'd probably try to if i was trying to enter this or time it probably be trying to get back to some of these levels over here that 150 level we've got in my opinion a nice channel over here a lot of recent enthusiasm here motley fool articles and discussions about it uh but uh i'm i'm satisfied also right now with my crypto positions in that i don't need more exposure to crypto right now and one of the reasons i'm saying that is because there are a lot of stocks that are selling off and remember i'm a big fan of trading between stocks and crypto so these are some of the things that i'm looking at like for example matterport this morning i executed a trade at matterport probably uh posted a notification about this somewhere around 1890 something like that so i was doing some ta just watching mad report and made a purchase here of course if you want all of my buy sell alerts they're not guaranteed to make you money but if you want to just know what i'm looking at because i literally sit here i spend all day doing this i'll pay one time join the stocks in psychology money group it's small investment you'll learn a lot with the lectures your lifetime access to the lectures and i think you'll love the um alerts i do them for crypto options stocks everything check that out link down below and uh folks uh yeah look i'm bullish on crypto i want to make this also very clear because sometimes this gets lost in the shuffle when i talk about you know crypto falling i'm bullish on on crypto for now i do think that long run there are potential deflation risks uh if if we do start inflecting into a deflationary era i think there are going to be risks for for uh cryptocurrencies but that's really far down the road right now i don't believe that's really an issue uh that we even need to begin talking about probably for another six to 18 months quite frankly but uh between that time frame between now and then i'm bullish i actually think 2022 is going to be a phenomenal year for cryptocurrencies and i think this pullback right now is just a temporary uh you know trader removal uh let's get the hype out of here let's uh let's go back to a level where i can go shopping which is fine with me and again if i could get uh into this uh this 54 000 support here especially if we start showing signs of bouncing off of that 54 i i'd be down to add uh to rebalance a little bit because i'm a little overweight right now in ethereum and i'm trying to keep my portfolio 20 btc and uh 40 cardano and 40 uh ethereum though i'm open to potentially especially if we get a btc dip and maybe it pulls solano down episode down i'm open to potentially um throwing a fourth coin in there and uh seoul's what i'm looking at unless of course it just it keeps running i i don't i don't need to chase it so anyway uh it and then if i haven't made it clear yet yes a lot of traders right now are going into things like uh dwac uh fun ph un crtd right these things are getting a lot of attention a lot of movement right now uh just be very careful here okay get in if you start seeing the technicals move don't rely on somebody else to tell you to get out you take your profits sometimes it even makes sense to take a small loss to avoid a big loss keep this in mi
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