저자: Kevin · 외국인
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트럼프미디어(DWAC) 스팩 상장 소식으로 주가가 급등 중이며, 기초 펀더멘털은 없고 낮은 유통물량·공매도 불가·미디어 주목에 따른 모멘텀 랠리로 본다. 큐스케이프 사례처럼 1~3주 내 급락 가능성을 경고하며, 단기 스윙은 가능하나 장기 보유는 비추천. 면책 고지 있음.
다듬은 글
everyone meet kevin here oh my goodness so there is a new hot stock on the market and people are going in nuts over it because it has the political flavor to keep people highly invested and potentially even taking a note from wall street and reddit diamond hand a brand new stock going public via a special purpose acquisition company or spac the trump media group is going public under ticker symbol d-w-a-c and folks you don't even want to know what it looked like today but because you're watching this video you either know or you want to know so i'm going to show you anyway folks dwac is a spack and when something is a spack it usually sits around a 10 par value that's what you have right here 10 this is because people investors in this digital world acquisition company believe in the people who put this company together so much so that they give them money at a value of ten dollars per share to go find a company to purchase they have a certain specific time frame that they have to purchase a company by and then once they find a company and strike a deal they release an update also known in the wall street world as an 8k and they say hey look we entered into an agreement to acquire a certain company and take it public through what's known as a reverse merger you don't really have to know what the specifics of the deal are but what's important to know is anything above 10 is really profitable for the initial investors who are in the deal given that right now in just one day this is one day the darn thing is up over 356 to 45 dollars and 50 cents and in the after hours it's running even more of 26.97 to 57.90 meaning if you invested ten dollars as one of those private equity investors through the pipe you'd be up almost six x on your money today well folks obviously there's a lot of attention being drawn to this and that's what happens take a look at this though at the same time as we're seeing these insane numbers on this particular spec watch this facebook stock down 5.08 percent in after hours after going up just a third of a percent today or here's another one let's look at some of the other social media stocks snapchat down point 69 on the day and down point 23 in after hours at the time of this recording twitter down 59 i'm sorry point 59 on the day and 3.98 in after hours so wait a minute why the heck are all of the traditional media stocks going down and trump media is going to the moon is it because people are fed up with social media corporate elitism and the disaster of communication and censorship that we have in the united states well yeah that's definitely one of the reasons but there are a lot of other factors that go into this like the fact that snapchat missed on earnings today because of changes that apple made making it harder to make money with advertising on platforms like snapchat twitter or even companies like a facebook or etsy and we're not gonna make this video political we're gonna look at this video as a neutral person here because look i've got qualms on both sides i actually ran for california governor that was before my hair was green and i know that politics is pretty dang device at divisive and especially censorship is something that happens i posted my announcement for my gubernatorial campaign and i came in second place of the recall candidates in california and my announcement post was deleted by facebook twitter refused to ever verify me as a candidate which is something they always do for elections oh but not in california they decided nope we're not going to verify anyone else except the governor who's running in this recall election and so a lot of this sort of frustration that we see our censorship in the media spills out over into our discussions community discussions discussions with our friendships and now folks we actually have a place we can put our money to say we're sick and tired of it but is dwac a good investment is it a good idea to protest media censorship and throw your money into dwac because it is what is taking the trump media group public and truth social public well that's what this video is about by the way in the last minute that i've been talking the stock is now up 30 in after hours geez all right folks so here's the thing first what we're going to do is we're going to look at what the company is and then i'm going to give you some reasons as to why the stock's going up invest in this or not so let's go ahead and go to the presentation documents for this you can look up truth social in the apple app store it's available for pre-order i am not sponsored by them i don't care if you sign up or you don't sign up i have i'm not taking any position on this whether you do or don't uh this document was prepared here october 2021 and it's worth noting that this pdf document here is uh it's known as an investor presentation but what it really is from the pro the view of a finance professional is a sales presentation they want you to invest in this stock and the easiest way to get people to invest in a stock is make people feel like there is an us versus them happening as a reason why you've gotta buy and hold a stock this is exactly what happened with gamestop think about gamestop for a moment what happened in january sure there was a higher short squeeze percentage available for people who were wanting the stock or expecting the stock to go down but what happened was you took a stock that was essentially trading at the beginning of the year for 18 the stock ran up to 347 dollars intraday ran up to over 482 dollars there were rumors that it was going to a thousand dollars the stock promptly fell back down to 45 dollars but then now has eventually settled around 181 this happens very commonly when we have a large momentum movement around a stock usually these sorts of peaks or momentum movements we usually don't see sort of lasting attention and momentum moving stocks i'll give you another example or a few more examples later and they're going to be a whole lot different from the gamestop one but i want to start by saying i believe this investor presentation is trying to create a gamestop style movement where you take a stock that has little to potentially no fundamental value and you create so much implied market value that you can actually create something great with now the market value opportunities you have more on that in just a moment but let's go through this so remember what you're looking for is to be sold on this i could tell you out of the gate probably not a lot of democrats going to be sold on this one because take a look at this the trump media group the tmtg the acronym aspires to be or create a media powerhouse to rival the liberal media consortium and fight back against the big tech companies of silicon valley who have used their unilateral or one-sided power to silence opposing voices in america notably facebook twitter and others donald trump obviously and the trump media group make the argument here that there is liberal bias that this is a dangerous exercise of monopoly tech censorship and that essentially by competing with them by creating another opportunity the trump media group has the real chance of creating a platform that caters more towards potentially a more conservative agenda or in their opinion a more uh free agenda okay now let's see some of the other things here so we've got headlines here twitter bans trump amazon will suspend hosting for pro-trump social network parlor because we know that trump was banned from twitter then his apps were removed from the apple store the android store parlor was taken down we remember some of these things back in january twitter bans the us president but the taliban still has a twitter account are our freedoms under attack right this is supposed to get us to feel upset and to want to invest in this company remember this is a sales pitch document market opportunity nothing screams selling a stock like the letters t-a-m or total addressable market and even though they're not trying to sell you products through the trump media group they're comparing themselves to apple uh and amazon amazon's the one i circled first apple's the one circle second uh netflix google and facebook i think a fair comparison is obviously twitter and facebook some of these are a little bit of a stretch to compare to but the trump media group then also goes on to compare themselves not just to social networks but also traditional networks like disney i heart radio media or obviously left-leaning uh platforms like cnn but what they're really doing is they're saying hey if we grow in the future we might be able to get into web services like what amazon does cloud computing like the web services that google provides payment processing got a lot of hopium i like to call it where they're selling you something with the impression that this is gonna be big and the best way to make you believe that it will absolutely be big is by making you feel like they can do absolutely everything and that's really what we're getting here is they're trying to sell you on the idea of joining a quote non-cancelable global community and they want to attack everything netflix twitter iheartradio to whatever instagram you name it you can also go over to truthsocial.com and join the waiting list to get into the app early to get an account now truth social has already had either an instance of i don't think it was necessarily hacking it was more like name squatting somebody stole uh donald trump's username in it and i i believe this has all been corrected at this point so that was just sort of like a side story in in this whole drama here the big story obviously is what's happening to the stock and again not sponsored doesn't matter me if you sign up or not the only thing i sponsor are so if you want perspective on investing in stocks or real estate or you want to build wealth not so much with a lottery ticket but get rich for sure through strong sound investing principles then stocks on psychology of money you get all my buy sell alerts real estate programs we do real estate analysis amazing things for you to learn and save money all right take a look at this trump media and technology group this is the 8k that was released by dwac today october 20th that is this was last night is when this was released and they've entered into a definitive merger agreement the company is being valued at 875 million dollars plus the opportunity as long as the stock performs to create or generate an additional 825 million this creates a combined valuation of about 1.7 billion dollars for this spec so now usually usually usually with with spax it's worth noting that you're only going to have access to about 10 of the shares of this company so it's relatively small in terms of how much of the company actually ends up going public but they are still seeking to raise somewhere around 1.7 billion dollars so far what we really have is a company that has wireframes and a register website it'll be interesting to see what kind of platform ends up getting developed donald trump has been talking about building a platform since january so he's obviously had plenty of time to be able to build something with developers and programmers or whatever worth noting that donald trump here says i created truth social and the trump media technology group to stand up to the tyranny of big tech we live in a world where the taliban have a huge presence on twitter yet your favorite american president has been silenced uh dwac currently has 293 million dollars oops that's supposed to be the highlighter 293 million dollars in trust and assuming minimal redemptions this is when people would want their money back uh who invested in the pipe and this money is designed to fuel tmtg's scale up including providing world-class technology services to build strong secure social networks so they're kind of even saying in here that they don't really have everything built out yet and that additional information is to come including uh further information like their s4 which they intend to file along with other information that is coming out in the future this is really just announcing that the partnership has been made and now all of a sudden we're seeing the stock again dwac that is a spac do extremely well so should you invest in dwac and why is it going up so much well first there are few reasons why the stock is going up so much and i'm going to keep this as simple as possible since there's a chance you might not be super familiar with stocks when you have a company so let's say this this right here is a company this little house right here when you sell a company and shares what you're doing is you're selling little slivers of that company right and let's say there are 100 million of those slivers usually with a spac you're only going to sell about 10 to 11 million so you're really only going to sell a little portion of this property the rest or company right the rest continues to be controlled by presumably donald trump and some of the people who are working with him on developing this application this is normal this is very very normal but in the spac process it tends to do something known as it creates a low float and the problem with the low flow is it's just basically a way of saying there aren't that many shares available for people to buy and hold on to let me give you an example let's say that there are 1 million shares available for something but immediately nine let's say 9 000 people come in and each of them say you know what we're going to buy a hundred shares well if nine thousand people buy a hundred shares each then we're going to all of a sudden be in a place where we have nine hundred thousand shares tied up and so if these people are holding on to the shares now you actually only have a hundred thousand shares to trade with and this these are just example numbers right the actual number's probably a lot larger but if there are a lot of people holding on to the shares you have a very small percentage of on already small percentage of the company that's freely trading and when there's or less shares available the price can usually go up quicker because there are fewer sellers so the way that might work is somebody might say hey i'm going to buy it at 15 i'll be willing to sell it for 25.
well if there's nobody in between here and somebody else says hey i'm willing to buy it for 25 the stock will immediately go to 25 and this is a lot of what we saw today in uh in the stock market here for dwac this is actually the warrant set so let me go to dwac i'll explain warrants in just a moment so you go to dwac this thing started uh kind of look where uh where my mouse is right here and you'll kind of see the pricing here the closing for that minute so the stock really started about 14 then it ran up to about 17 19 20 25 went to 30 i went to a high 40s here went to 51 for a moment and now in the after hours it's going up to 59 and uh if you could see every single minute about 1.2 million shares traded hands so kind of the example there on the sheet that i just showed you would be accurate of a representation for maybe uh about a minute or about 10 times that since a million shares are trading right so the actual number's probably 10 times that uh per minute but the actual number doesn't matter so much the point is they're going to probably be a lot of people buying this and holding it not a lot of people selling it now usually that isn't a problem because if a stock gets too rich and all of a sudden something's selling for 25 and the market thinks that's too expensive that's where people can come in and they can do something known as shorting a stock this is where they borrow the stock from somebody and then they sell it so let's say you're holding on to the stock i could borrow the shares from you and sell it now i'm providing liquidity at a lower price and that helps keep the price in check but there are some problems here in addition to having a low float you have like i mentioned in my opinion an army of folks who are going to politically want to hold on to this stock we call that huddle hold on for dear life huddle that stock but on top of that you cannot short this stock yet it is not available for borrowing so you can't short the stock which means you the market can't accurately price this stock right now there's no counter balancing force so you have very few shares a lot of people of the shares who that are outstanding holding on to it and you can't short the stock the company also has a uh is or is going to be the recipient especially today of massive massive media attention which remember the sec actually tells us that mass media attention is one of the ways that we can actually get a stock to be extremely valuable extremely quickly now that doesn't last forever but the sec just put together a report on why gamestop went to 482 and i wrote down what the sec says something that creates a lot of momentum in a stock the price going up is the price going up so when the price goes up more people want to buy it because of the fear of missing out large volume changes lots of people buying it and selling it all of a sudden and that these are volume bars so when you've got a lot of changes here and prices going up that meets two of the criteria a large short interest which according to ortex the short interest in this particular spec is over 20 percent which probably comes out of the fact that a lot of specs have been shorted since well uh their highs around february of this year remember this is a spec and so a lot of folks just went out of their way and just started shorting all specs kind of sucks for them at this point especially if that short interest is over 20 but that short interest of over 20 percent according to ortex could give more momentum for that for the stock to essentially keep going because that is because if the short interest is high then short sellers when they start losing lots of money might have to buy the stock back to stop their losses leading the stock to go up even more and then of course the sec mentions frequent reddit mentions youtube mentions or significant coverage in social media worth noting as well the short interest according to the s3 partners app in the bloomberg terminal is 16.22 there's also another ticker symbol and that is dwac those are to buy warrants for the company those are basically option contracts and if you're not familiar with those i would just recommend staying away from those those can go up more or down more faster with movements than the underlying stock that now begs the question is the stock running to the moon essentially because of fundamental reasons no absolutely not is the stock running because of social movements social inspiration social frustration partisan politically partisan investments into this stock to make a point and is this running because it is something that has low float there are lots of haulers reiterating the low flow you can't short it there's a lot of mass media attention the short interest is up the price is up and it has jumps in pricing and the volume is up well folks the answer to all of this is obviously yes so no this is not going up because it's a really good company quite frankly this company doesn't even have to exist all that we know that exists right now is a sign up website some wireframes which is just basically pictures of an app that somebody could mock up in an app store and this spac we have no earnings we have no revenues we have no operating costs no advertising costs we don't have anything that's because the company is basically a brand new company now they're not lying to you saying they have a big company or that isn't new they're being very transparent about it but because of all the factors that i mentioned this stock is very likely to pull a very big quantum scape style run up and crash now that is not me being negative about the company i'm not taking a position either way but if i type in qs or quantumscape the spac battery company or battery company that's spacked look what happened folks it went from ten dollars in a very excited manner went up went up went all the way up to thirty 132 dollars and look how quickly it came down and this is a warning for you thirty nine percent on the last day of its run over here down three percent then it was up a half percent then it was up 2.38 then it was down 10.8 percent then down three percent 10.8 percent 40 0.2 percent and then we kind of stabilized again up a little bit down a little bit and then you get this slow bleed out where the stock that used to be at ten dollars ran all the way to 132 dollars quickly sold off and then bled out the rest of the way all the way to where it sits now at 24.91 now does this mean that the trump media group is going to go back to 10 or 15 or 24 not necessarily in fact this is a pretty unique stock where quite frankly this could just stay high uh not maybe not necessarily as high as it is now but because of political intentions or wills of people to want to hold on to this for political purposes for wanting to be a part of the movement purposes right but when this starts rotating down and attention starts going away from this my guess is within the next week to three weeks i expect this stock to come down substantially i would not make a long run investment in this now this is not financial advice but if i were looking at playing around with this stock if i was interested in buying i might potentially buy the stock but then i would be prepared to sell i would set a limit order to sell the darn thing i would set a trailing limit as another option if i wanted to stop loss you could do a whole host of things to make sure you sell if this price starts going down or get into it day trade it swing trade it and get out of this but once options start trading once we can start shorting it once the mass media stops talking about it once uh once the mass media or in the reverse starts talking about how much it's fallen then it's probably off to the races in terms of this going down for now though we might not have hit peak media yet i still think there are a lot of people who haven't even heard about this which means there's a good chance this could continue to soar so congratulations for those of you making money on it i wish you the best on making money i encourage you to take profits liberally on this one often and continue to try to make money playing the stock but it's not something that i would fundamentally hold until i get financials in like a year or two when the company actually operates something or even we have a chance to use the social media platform but again if you want to make some short-term money you could consider swing trading in this just be aware there's a risk of loss and if you want more of my insights thank you for watching share
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