저자: Dylan · 외국인
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캐나다의 G7 최초 금리인하 및 유럽 인하로 중앙은행 완화 사이클이 시작됐다고 진단. 캐나다는 변동금리 모기지 비중이 높아 가계 부담이 커 인하가 필요하지만, 미국 인플레이션은 더 끈적해 연준은 올해 1회 인하에 그칠 것으로 봄. 미국 고용은 헤드라인은 양호하나 내부 지표는 약화되어 실업률 상승 신호가 있다고 해석. TLT 차트상 주요 이동평균과 지지선을 근거로 87~92 구간에서 적극 매집 중이며, 첫 인하(9월 또는 11월, 12월 가능성)가 나오기 전 진입 필요. 본인도 손실 가능성을 언급하며 투자 권유 아님을 강조.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two super guys PR Sox I'm Dylan and I'm V this is a big day all right It's the final countdown for those of you who are in the TLT trade I am loading up there are three huge events that just happened this week and one that's about to happen so big news we're going to talk about it and I want your honest opinions I was going to get the audio for The Final Countdown um but then my baby threw up on me so I didn't um have time yeah I think I did a great rendition of it right there so um Canada becomes the first G7 Nation to cut interest rates all right that happened Wednesday uh in a widely expected move that will ease pressure on highly indebted consumers but indicated further easing would be gradual and dependent on data now the reason why is important I'm going to show you some charts but we've essentially not been identically following them but fairly fairly close our our fed and uh Bank of Canada doing very similar things now there is a little bit of a difference here which is why I don't think we're going to get it cut in June or even July just to be clear but soon so um basically this they stressed the time of the next cut would be dependent on you know actual inflation data and then there's a note here that US inflation is stickier and markets expect the Federal Reserve will cut rates only once this year I mostly agree with that um now why is that all right core inflation in Canada has slowed much faster than the US you have your light green in Canada and you have your dark green in the US wow now yeah I know kind of wild now yeah it's pretty startling difference for Canada America Jor sorry yeah americ um it it is a kind of a large difference there is multiple reasons for that that we I'm not going to get into that's going to be like nine hours um but it's more important the consumer for Canada is having a much more difficult time specifically the housing market than we are so they definitely need a rate cut now what am I talking about Canadian households now considered to hold the biggest debt among G7 countries took out variable rate mortgages we don't really have a lot of those here in the United States um when yeah and they did that at historic lows and then a series of hikes put a lot of people not having a good time essentially there's a large percentage it's it's 25% of all mortgages were variable rate mortgages and the vast majority of those are doing interest only payments while the principal is piling up they're actually losing money each month love it's interesting how differently real estate is finan across the world because that's common in the UK too is fireb rate mortgages yeah and so this is really weird I actually did not know this so the second part of this meanwhile fixed rate mortgage holders will likely see a payment shock when their mortgages renew in the coming months so unlike here Canadian mortgages renew once in three or five years so it's a 5year mortgage basically amored over 25 years so even if you got a solid rate on a fixed rate mortgage in 2020 2025 your payment's going to change it's okay odd it's to me that's quite odd but ours change so mine changes yearly when it comes down to real estate taxes and and property insurance I just got it the other day it went up like a $90 per month $2,400 mortgage it's not like a huge amount but right but that's property tax and then if you have PMI this is this is R yeah no PMI the my home owners insurance goes into escrow that's what it's for too right that okay that's fair we did multiple videos in this change your insurance yep I'm not going to harp that anymore um it's a big deal I save 60% uh so here's the rates over time now the dark blue here this is a projection this is not real okay but you have your Bank of Canada and fed policy rates Divergence so we've been fairly close for 20 years you know maybe a half percentage off they are expecting a much bigger Divergence than we've ever had before but I just want to show you that chart because that's kind of the big deal now what else happened Europe also cut all right now we have less in common with them and how they do things but the big news is Canada cut then right after Europe cut all right they said the same thing hey we need more data before we know if we're going to do more cuts um this is kind of a cool chart now this is an estimation but they were correct so this is this is Major uh central banks pois to embark on a cutting cycle so the purples cuts the uh the red or orange I'm kind of color blind is that red or orange uh it's kind of an orange I'll take it um that's Japan has the only rate oh are you too no I'm saying it looks more like salmon to me than it does anything okay I can't tell the difference that's all the same um but they're not having anything for for us as cutting um until September 18th okay okay I actually think that's possible to be honest with you now what's the other big big data point for TLT baby monthly job creation in the US all right we thought there was going to be a big problem we thought that you know oh there's going to be no more job jobs unemployment is going to shoot up and you initially see the numbers you're like oh we're we're fine we're still we're still killing it we're relatively fine but let's sure dig into those numbers shall we okay so on the surface report was hot but you've also got a bigger drop in house employment for what's worth it tends to be a more accurate signal when you're at an inflection point in the economy you can find weakness and underlying numbers meaning hey this numbers were solid but unemployment still increased that's essentially what this is saying because this chart going from April to 22 is now it's it's cut off because it was still waiting on the data and there's too many Bloomberg kept asking me to pay for it to refuse but imagine there's a four right there for the next month it saved me $199 so big deal I can picture the four yeah all right and we had talked earlier here that you have a slow increase in unemployment and then kind of a very rapid increase in unemployment is that the inflection point we're at we're not sure I would say no but I would say we're very very close unfortunately because our inflation is so much stickier which I don't think everyone truly understands why corporate greed's a big part of it we also that um because of that we need to keep rates as high and stress the economy for as long as possible cutting now even though I would make a lot of money on it would not be a good idea that would completely understand that now y here's TLT all right your blue is your 200 small moving average this is not a stock now I will say it weirdly respects small moving averages and support and resistance lines which you're like hey TLT is you know a series of 20e bonds why that should matter I don't know I don't have an answer for you it does though you just zoom out and it respects even the 9 EMA here this dash line I don't get it but you can see we actually broke some trend lines here uh oh yeah yeah testing it from the top side yeah is see tends to happen so for me I am loading up I'm no longer doing Wheels I'm now just trying to accumulate as much as possible um my accumulation um that I'm trying to get through is 87 to 92 there are some people who commented that got it like at 83 good job you guys killed it I'm very jealous I got so greedy I do that every time yeah it happens I mean I think you're still gonna have time I know you're saying now September maybe before like the the FED cut I I just want to be in before the first cut and I think the first cut will be this year so that's six months I'm not saying right now I'm saying now you're in the loading zone of 87 to 92 I don't think it's going to go lower than 87 I would be surprised if it does good news I'm thinking we might get a to token cut into at the December meeting honestly I uh Powell has been very consistent and he's referenced vler and keeping at it quote unquote multiple times and that is Paul V's biography talking about many things but in particular the inflation cycles of the 1970s and how y the their major mistake was cutting too soon and I think if anything Powell is actually gonna do the same thing he did when it came to raising rates he's gonna wait too long he'd rather wait too long to cut rates then he would too early he's that's the direction in which he will choose to error and and you know that maybe a token rate decrease in December but I think they're going to be by Far and Away the last Reserve as far as cutting rates I agree they probably will well I think Japan will be the last they're still doing raid hikes so I'm I'm going to throw them out because they're going to be last in my my opinion yeah um different problem yeah different whole different deal um but I do think I'm feeling what's do you have the yeah I have the chart up uh these are these are the we have left this year for Federal Reserve meetings um you know the June 1 11 to 12 that's this week and the cool thing is that a little star right there tells you we're gonna get SCP we're gonna get a Dot Plot out of this we're gonna get to see what they think is going to happen for the rest of the year um then we have one at the end in July September November and then December 17th 18th um like I said I think that might be like the the Christmas present Jerome Paulo give us as a 25 basis point cut just to say like yeah see we did it before the end of the year just barely by the skin of our teeth but we did it I actually think it's going to be November you think it might be November I have been right every time except for the times that I was wrong yeah yeah 0% of the time it works every time uh but yeah I'm loading up as much as possible between that range um obviously I could be completely wrong and lose everything so please do not follow me into this I'm just going to throw it out there I don't know what I'm doing yeah love it all right guys catch you the next one
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