저자: Dy · 외국인
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PCE 물가가 2.7%로 둔화가 멈추고 평탄화됨. 서비스 물가(임금 영향)가 잡히기 어렵고 보험료가 인플레를 주도. 연방정부 지출이 2019년 대비 크게 늘고 연준 대차대조표도 2020년 수준으로 복귀해 통화량 축소 효과가 제한적. 소비자 신용 연체율(카드·자동차)이 상승 중이며 소비 둔화 및 소비자 리세션이 인플레를 식히고 연준이 급격히 금리를 내릴 것으로 전망. 학자금 대출 연체 데이터는 2024년 하반기 이후 재집계되며 연체 급등 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two super guys Soxs I'm Dy and I'm Vinnie and holy crap we got some PCA data this week Jerome Powell the Federal Reserve best inflation data point I'm GNA look through a couple things about why we're still having inflation at what level and how I think it's finally going to resolve what's going to trigger it talk about it yes so um you actually saw pce data came out this week all right we' talked a little bit about that before this is what you're seeing as far as like headlines basically saying like all right inflation is tracking sideways Su spending was a little bit kind of weaker that's going to be a major kind of talking point a little bit later on in the video uh mixed signals on Federal Reserve they don't really know what the hell they're doing they're just G to pause here and wait and see what happens until they actually have like a clear and definitive evidence of what's going on before they make any moves all right this little snippet here from this nerd wallet uh you know Economist that was interesting uh people have been pinched for a while and it's likely starting to show the cooling is encouraging for slower inflation in the coming months all right so that's kind of where I want to get to as far as what may cause inflation to finally resolve but we're gonna look at some other things first all right yeah because I'm okay I'm gonna wait all right uh so this is the actual you know personal consumption uh expenditures this is pce this is the data that drone power likes as far as uh inflation and we did make some significant progress from the peak here but we've kind of flattened out for a while now and that that trend is going to be reflected in many other items when you look at a line by line kind of analysis of latest pce report so this is the headline number we're looking at 2.7% all right that's trilling 12 months you know you can see we've had a few months in a row here we actually had a slight uptick compared to um you know this time last year where you're looking at 2.5% as a couple months ago that's that's the one-year rate of change but we've had a slight uptick there like I said on the chart it's more like it's just flattened out we stopped making progress this is line by line when you're looking at the actual categories that make a pce here so overall this whole first page is different Goods categories and you know Goods have come down um quite a bit 0.2% on a month-over-month basis now there were times where it was significantly better if you look there were actually had negative recordings at one point in time um this is when people were talking about the decreasing prices of like a lot of durable goods like washing machines and things like that um they went negative for a little while compared to you know a couple years ago or last year right but um there's still categories that are you know staying relatively robust even amongst the goods segment here all right um there non- durable goods 0.5% that's kind of more your everyday items that are designed to have be used and thrown away right now those those are continuing to have like a fairly decent month-over-month uh increase in prices 0.5% services this is the one that PO said is the hardest to crack all right this is where wages really come into play and compare the goods number at 0.2 Services here is 0.3 right services are a little bit smaller as far as the actual categories and as far as on when you look at line by line basis here uh we really haven't had many of these go negative for any substantial period of time because it's hard to put wages back down right that's generally just what happens um we have seen you know some things improved transportation services did actually have a negative month airline tickets is a large portion of that uh we finally have had the Ed car market starting to cool off so we're getting some kind of you know things here that are a little bit more positive for us negative numbers being positive um but remember we did a separate video about this financial services and insurance look at that number 0 % for the month you know this is where inflation is being driven right now yeah it's absolutely disgusting but I I Mo remove my cam because there's just no safe spot on these slides I'm trying to not cover stuff um but insurance we did a video where essentially every 12 months you need to re-evaluate what you're doing because you're paying an astronomical amount it's they're also making record profits so [ __ ] those guys yeah yeah exactly yeah I know it it's really really disgusting I actually I changed my uh car insurance company I did not change my homeowners for most recent Year my my car insurance company try to ask for a 35% price increase uh year-over year uh and I was like absolutely not my uh homeowners insurance asked for 20% which was still large but not quite enough to motivate me because I hadn't been with them quite as long uh but next year I think they're gonna have to go all right when we look at the actual like overall categories here all right so PC excluding for energy this is that core pce this this is the one that really represents non-volatile things that people have to spend household money on and what the month-over-month price changes is looking like here and when you look at this this data it's hard to really draw much of a pattern out of it because we've been just kind of prating in this this low positive category here of between 0.1 being the lowest reading on here to 0.5% being the highest yeah sure we actually had another 0.5 here in January of 2024 we've come down a little bit over the last couple months but we're not really making significant progress on inflation I want to posit to you now a potential explanation for that all right ignore the names here okay this gets some very politically charged but I wanted to just demonstrate a little bit about the supply and demand economics when it comes to you know government spending right so this is the federal government spending United States all right and you're looking at two columns here that are really most important is receipts and outlays all right outlays is how much they're spending receipts is how much they collect it in taxes perfect and you know this data goes back quite far it's so cute to see when the federal government was only spending a few billion dollars a year um these all represent you know multiple trillion dollars per year now um so I want to compare the kind of last pre-pandemic year to now right to give it a little bit of what has happened to our money supply and demand from government spending so 2019 last pre-pandemic full year $4.4 trillion in spending okay now we come to 2024 Where We Are year the estimate for this year is $ 6.18 Six Trillion in government spending federal government spending alone so essentially we are at a about a one trillion deficit for 2019 and then this year about 13ish trillion yeah three five these are the deficits here um that's not really what I was going to focus on this is like my total debt um but what I want to look at is the change in spending rates okay so if I took CPI from April 20 I mean uh December 2019 compared to April 2024 all right these is actual index readings it's a 21% increase from where we were in 2019 right that's that's different inflation metric but that that's kind of showing you how much purchasing power we've lost in the last five years the federal government though on a yearly basis now spending 40 or has spent 40% increase in their their their yearly annual expenditure compared to where the when inflation was a little bit more tepid okay hard to send back that much spending right it's not easy this is 100% going to be a political comment section this is quite possibly quite possibly um I wanted to show you this too we haven't looked at this in a little while but this is the Federal Reserve balance sheet okay we've almost got back to where we were at June of 2020 as far as their balance she they've been offloading was a 775 billion dollar in like MBS per month they actually finally turned that down slightly at the most recent meeting that was something that was kind of like not as well I guess broadcast if you will but they didn't adjust rat but they did slow down the offloading of their balance sheet billion a month yeah so the the slope of this line is going to start to decrease a little bit but we're almost back to June of 2020 so you would think that that would have had a pretty dramatic effect on the money supply and the amount of money available in the economy right I mean yes and no because the amount of money we spent during covid is astronomical and it kind of changed things forever there's not really a going back to preco possibility when you added 10% of the national debt in one year yeah it's just it's so I think it's more than 10% I actually think I undercut that it's hard to put the genie back in the bottle but you did actually see a little decrease here in the money supply but it stopped making any progress as far as decreasing money supply despite desite the fact the Federal Reserve like I said has been offloading their balance sheet in theory when the Federal Reserve buys something that money is printed into existence you know because they don't have to borrow in order to do it they just create it to purchase the thing right that's why they driver of inflation you can but no one's gonna take Dylan bucks for anything damn it maybe talk to your wife we'll see um but the money supply has really not been affected by the the federal balance sheet being offloaded there right so this is kind of some news reports from earnings that kind of ties into what I think is going to ultim be the driver here of this inflationary cycle of stopic uh so Walmart actually crushed earnings and they basically were able to say like hey we did so well because we we started attracting affluent higher income households right on the same kind of quarterly report you want to slide us up here you have Target saying that they they miss the mark because Shoppers are avoiding things they don't really don't need I think a consumer recession is coming and that's what's going to be the major driver of uh cooling down inflation and Federal Reserve is not going to go through a nice staged kind of draw down in interest rates they're gonna have to respond stimulate very abruptly and I think it's going to be a very sharp move in interest rates is what I'm which is what the TLT crew is waiting for that's what we're waiting for Dad all right so I don't know if you've seen this chart anywhere but this is actually delinquency rates right this this people 90 days plus delinquent on their loans right and multiple different times of credit here but look at the what's happened to the credit card here all right yeah quite significant and that's at a time when interest rates are extremely high much higher than they were back in 2008 2009 right so people are really feeling that that's going to continue to go for a while um other I'm not really sure it's probably it's a small pool anyways the other thing that's really startling here is look at student loans right well that's false though because everything was put on pause exactly so if you're looking this and you don't know that you're like oh man everyone's paying their loans no one's paying their loans it's just you couldn't collect so that's G to that's G to have a V coming soon I mean I I don't even know if you can connect the two points once you actually start reporting this data again I feel like it should just start a new graph like up here you know connecting those two is lying to you um the the rate is GNA be much much higher than is being reported right now and things that we do have data on are you know this uh credit cards more than anything else you're starting to see an increase there um same thing with with car loans you know car loans I think you will be certainly influenced by this uh because you're going to see people there massively negative equity uh there's a lot of jokes about like how the you know there's a shortage right now of repo drivers in order to actually you know repossessed cars so you know the number of repossessions being reported and actually executed on are much lower than they should be just because there's like a lack of availability for actual rep possessions you know people have a lot of negative equity because people are borrowing 120% plus of of the MSRP on these these loans and financing that at these ridiculous rates so it is getting very very tenuous for the American Consumer and it's going to be consumer sentiment that's going to drive this in inflation Cooling and ultimately the FED kind of moving into more a um uh what's the word a accommodative uh Financial stance by Ling rates to order to stimulate demand again I mean anecdotally i' I've certainly started to see it a little bit when I go out for for like dinner restaurants used to be you know everywhere had a 30 minute wait on a Wednesday uh now I'm starting to walk in on a Friday night and and get a table immediately um you're starting to see people pull back their spending in in many discretionary portions of their you know budget so couple takeaways from this one I really wanted to buy Target when I was at I missed the boat I do think I'm going to get that option again it was very interesting to see Walmart and Target have complete opposites on earnings if you look at their stock charts it's wild you would not have thought that was going to happen um two is the other the gray line is that personal loans I'm assuming I think that's included in it yes um I think that's one of the categories yeah I don't know what portion of it bet you if you look at the the amount of debt that's in that category it's going to be infantes compared to you know mortgages and student loans though so it's not going to be a major mover but I I agree I think it probably is personal loans because I don't see Mortgage Debt going I I don't see delinquency happen because so many people have homes at a 3% or a 2% interest rate it's not like 2008 2009 it's a it's a it's a different situation I do think do you know when student loans are going to pick back up uh when they start reporting again I would say it was a 12 12 month uh it's after the election I want to say is the next time that you'll actually see delinquency data yeah yeah tell me that wasn't intentional yeah no yeah no that's okay that's yeah I'm gonna shut my mouth um all right I'm not gonna say anything oh no wrong button sorry like kind of um the the like one final like uh point I wanted to make about um the mortgage situation is you remember there was that bur tweet about how you know a 3% mortgage and a bunch of divid paying stocks is is great HS against inflation he was right he was he has been wrong multiple times to be fair but he was right multiple times with this now granted Chinese stocks have cooled down a lot damn it yeah but now you got the 3% mortgage and you probably have $200,000 in equity in your home so delinquencies on homes are not going to happen yeah I don't think it's going to happen I agree all right guys let us know what you think and if it's oh wait before I shut this off when do you think you're going to see the spike of the the rapid decrease in rates and whatever you say I'm going to hold against you you have to make a prediction now without thinking ahead of time yeah I know I'm I'm you're definitely putting me on the spot I want to say you're G consumer spending really is the fourth quarter of the year so I think it'll be next January February where we'll we'll see how uh bad consumer spending had fallen off a cliff in the fourth quarter and that's really going to be like when the decision time makes so early early 2025 be October 14th specifically I'm just kidding I don't know all right guys have a good one thanks
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