저자: 개발머스트 · 한국인
요약 보기
개인 계좌 수익률을 공개하며 미국 증시가 8거래일 연속 반등 중이라고 밝힘. 연준 데일리·카시카리 등의 9월 25bp 인하 발언을 소개하고, 금리 인하기 증시는 과거 9차례 중 7차례 하락했지만 경기침체가 없으면 상승 가능하다고 설명. 고금리 장기화 속 경기침체 위험에 대비해 현금 보유를 권고하며, 워런 버핏의 애플 지분 축소·현금 확대를 예로 듦.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Develo most, tarting by revealing my accounts again today. My direct US investment account has climbed back up to a 166% return and a profit of 182 million won, while my domestic stair trade is currently showing a 140% return and a profit of 8.3 million won. On top of that, a second trade yielded 10 million won in profit, along with foreign exchange gains and Bitcoin turning positive again, bringing my total current profit to approximately 230 million won.
Now, if we take a brief look at the US stock market yesterday, the market, which was in an uproar two weeks ago predicting further declines, has shown signs of rising for eight consecutive trading days. If we examine this on the chart, we can certainly expect a proper rebound. That is why you should never sell, even during a market crash; it is because no one predicted such a rebound.
Therefore, we must always maintain the mindset of living as asset holders who continuously hold onto their assets. It is about humbly accepting the fluctuations of assets. So, what were the key points yesterday? It was the remarks by Fed members who began laying the groundwork for a rate cut in September.
This week's Jackson Hole meeting... We are currently facing a situation where this is imminent. In this context, there were remarks from Fed President Mary Daley, known as a dove. President Daley stated that she gained greater conviction while observing recent inflation indicators. She noted that while the labor market is showing signs of slowing, it is not currently in the form of a sharp decline, and therefore advocated for gradual rate cuts rather than a sudden, drastic reduction.
In other words, this means a gradual reduction of 25 basis points. Please keep this in mind, as we will discuss the 50 basis point cut later. Additionally, Fed President Neel Kashkari, known as a hawk among hawks, also made remarks. The hawkish Neel Kashkari went so far as to mention that a rate cut in September would be appropriate.
The Fed's goals are 2% inflation and full employment; while inflation is clearly being brought under control, the risks in the labor market are now gradually rising. Therefore, he is taking the stance that if the focus has been on slowing inflation, the focus must now shift back to stabilizing the labor market.
In doing so, he mentions a 25 basis point cut in September. Furthermore, most Fed members... It is expected that an opinion on a 25bp interest rate cut will be expressed in September. So, today, I would like to discuss how the US stock market will behave if interest rates are cut. Yesterday, I mentioned that we should pay more attention to an economic recession than to interest rate cuts; however, that does not mean you shouldn't monitor rate cuts.
While we should focus more on whether or not a recession occurs, we must, of course, study interest rate cuts and prepare for them. So, today we will study this aspect. Most of you are likely thinking, "They say a massive market crash follows when interest rate cuts begin. Should I sell everything and run away?" That is likely your biggest question.
To address this, I have brought charts of the Fed's base rate and the SMP 500. By examining how US stocks have moved in the past when interest rates were cut, we can prepare accordingly. Since 1959, there have been approximately nine periods of interest rate cuts. However, you can see that stock prices fell significantly during the seven periods marked with black squares.
In the US stock market, which is trending upward, 70% The fact that it showed a significant decline with a probability exceeding 25% indicates a highly significant, high-probability drop. That is why many people are worried about interest rate cuts, and I, too, have recently been uploading videos emphasizing the importance of holding cash.
I am emphasizing, almost to the point of being tired of it, that we must manage risk in dangerous situations, even if it means a rise or less profit. This is because protecting your money is more important, even if my videos are boring. And that does not necessarily mean it will fall. Out of the past nine interest rate cycles, stock prices actually rose significantly twice.
Statistically speaking, we can think of it this way: out of nine interest rate cycles, stock prices fell seven times and rose twice. That is why there is talk of needing to be cautious during interest rate cuts. Then, we need to study the reasons why prices fell during rate cuts and why they rose when they did.
This is also connected to why people say we should focus more on economic recession. If the economy holds up well and achieves a soft landing, and if interest rates are gradually cut by 25 basis points as we currently expect, the stock market will actually show a better performance. The parts checked in blue on the screen represent the areas to be used gradually on the day of the 25p interest rate cut.
It is the case that in 2019, 1998, and 1995, even though the Fed cut interest rates, we could see positive stock price trends from one year to five years later. However, if the market cannot withstand high interest rates and a sudden economic crisis erupts, the Fed does not gradually cut rates by 25 basis points to prevent the crisis; instead, it abruptly lowers rates by more than 50 basis points.
Representative examples of this include when COVID-19 broke out and the world shut down, when the 2007 Global Financial Crisis occurred, or when the Dacom bubble burst in 2000. In such cases, you must understand that the stock market did not fall because of the interest rate cut, but rather because the market had already fallen due to the economic crisis, and the Fed urgently lowered rates to prevent it.
Therefore, you should not blindly think that rates will rise if they are cut, or that they will rise in the opposite direction during the next rate hike because they fell from the 2022 trend. Instead, you must understand the interest rate cycle and the economic cycle. Ah, without an economic recession You must study and prepare for the fact that if we achieve a safe soft landing and begin gradually lowering interest rates, the stock market is more likely to rise; conversely, if an unexpected economic crisis erupts and the Fed belatedly cuts rates significantly to contain it, the stock market could plummet.
That is why I am emphasizing to you that while we study and prepare for interest rate cuts, we must now focus more on the possibility of an economic recession. However, as we viewed probabilistically earlier, the risk that stock prices could fall sharply at any time coexists within a high-interest rate cycle.
Of course, there is a sufficient possibility that it will not happen, but it is true that the likelihood of that is higher than usual. Because interest rates are high, people do not buy cars or take out loans, and the same applies to companies tightening their spending. As they refrain from new expansion investments, the economy gradually erodes.
Yet, somewhere, a top-tier entity could collapse due to excessive expansion and leveraged lending driven by high interest rates. If that happens, an unexpected and rapid economic recession will follow, triggering a crash and decline in the stock market. Therefore, as we are currently passing the tail end of the high-interest rate era, we must be prepared for this.
This is something you must do. And here, wise investors would choose investments that minimize risk as much as possible rather than making reckless investments. That is why, although I proclaimed the 2022 bear market as a once-in-a- lifetime opportunity to become rich, I am now advising you to hold a certain amount of cash to prepare for a potential crash.
If you act like the majority, you will end up living the same life as the majority. However, those of you watching this video are people who want to break away from the ordinary, live a comfortable life, or become rich. If so, we must prioritize not losing money in a high-risk environment like this.
In fact, while we cannot know for sure if Warren Buffett took this action in preparation, we can see that he reduced his Apple holdings by about half and increased his cash holdings. We, too, must prepare for a potential crisis, even if it means eating less. Nevertheless, I still find the idea of a soft landing futile.
However, predictions are a useless waste of time. So, you just need to prepare and respond. Investment is determined not by insight, but by principles, attitude, and mindset. We must hold onto those principles when we are tempted by greed and when we need to prepare for risk. Enjoying the moment and picking up the dips— that is our overarching investment principle.
Let's invest wisely in this cycle to protect our assets while also investing in diversified positions. .
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