저자: DebelRomong · 한국인
요약 보기
미국 증시가 경기침체 우려로 급락 후 반등했으나, 시장의 해석 기준이 금리인하 기대에서 경기침체 여부로 이동했다고 주장. 8월 대선해 조정은 좋은 매수 기회였고 글로벌 유동성도 공급 쪽으로 전환 중. 다만 추가 하락(이중바닥 또는 계단식 하락) 가능성을 열어두고 현금 비중 10~30%를 유지하라고 권고. 계좌 수익률(해외 100%, 국내 135%, 총 약 2.3억 원)을 공개함.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Debel R. Many members and subscribers have left comments saying that they successfully "snapped up" during this puddle and are already seeing profits. I sincerely congratulate everyone. Since I believe I can return at any time following the double bottom, I would like to state that we have now turned into the 5-line zone.
00% return with a profit of 173 million KRW, while my domestic account is showing a 135% return with a profit of 8 million KRW. On top of that, my second account is also showing a profit of about 10 million KRW. However, the exchange rate dropped slightly today, reducing foreign exchange gains, and Bitcoin has entered negative territory again, so the total profit is currently around 230 million KRW.
And even though the Bitcoin account has entered negative territory again like this, I would like to mention that this is when I keep a close eye on the "consolidation" trend. Now, we need to examine what important events will occur in the US stock market this week. The most important events include Target's earnings announcement, the July FMC meeting, and There is Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech.
First, why is Target's earnings announcement important? It is because we need to examine whether U.S. consumer spending remains robust. As I will share in more detail later, we now need to focus more on whether there is an economic recession rather than the timing of interest rate cuts. Therefore, Target's earnings announcement is crucial, followed by the minutes and Powell's Jackson Hole speech.
What exactly should we pay attention to in Powell's remarks regarding the Fed? This is also the reason why Target's earnings announcement is important. I would like to emphasize that the distinction between a soft landing and a hard landing is more important than interest rate cuts. Previously, even when looking at the same data, it was crucial whether investors viewed it as a positive factor due to expectations regarding interest rates or as a negative factor due to concerns about an economic recession.
From 2023 to 2024, whenever economic indicators came out poorly, the U.S. stock market continued to rise, viewing it as a positive factor alongside the AI bull market driven by expectations of interest rate cuts. However, this interpretation sentiment is now gradually shifting. Personally, I would confidently say that now is the time to start being cautious about concerns regarding an economic recession.
While other media outlets and YouTube channels will emphasize interest rate cuts, the economy... I believe the presence or depth of a recession is what matters. Now, we need to examine this in more detail. If we look at the bull market over the past two years, there was a period where stock prices actually rose significantly, interpreting bad news as positive catalysts even when economic indicators came out poorly.
This is because if economic results are bad, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates immediately. In other words, it was a stock market where expectations of interest rate cuts were crucial. Driven by this expectation, we can see the Nasdaq achieving a return of nearly 100%—or doubling—from its lowest point in October 2022 to the end of July 2024.
However, speaking personally, what I feel lately is that when economic indicators come out bad, investors' sentiment is not to drive the market back up based on interest rates or expectations, but rather to increase volatility due to growing concerns about an economic recession. This seems to have intensified during the recent correction.
The US stock market, fearing a recession, experienced its biggest plunge in two years and encountered a correction due to concerns over the liquidation of NK Trade. Now, I believe the graph is currently very important. Now, if economic indicators come out bad, interest rate cuts... The point is that the stock market has shifted from rising due to expectations and positive news to fluctuating wildly due to concerns about an economic recession.
It began to plummet suddenly starting in late July because the unemployment rate closed much higher than expected. In other words, the fear of a rapid economic downturn has emerged. As the probability of a recession increased significantly, expectations for interest rate cuts naturally rose as well.
In fact, if we look at the light blue graph, we can see that expectations for interest rate cuts have risen. However, normally, this should have been a positive catalyst for the stock market to rise; instead, we can see that the market has plummeted this time. This implies that as expectations for interest rate cuts rise, concerns about an economic recession grow even larger.
Conversely, although expectations for interest rate cuts have recently decreased, the stock market has successfully rebounded as recession concerns begin to gradually dissipate. You must understand what this means. Even when looking at the same data, the market's interpretation sentiment has changed.
Now, if economic indicators turn out poorly, there is a possibility that it is not a positive catalyst. In other words, the focus is no longer on interest rate cuts, but on whether an economic recession will occur, and if it does, how deep it will be. Therefore, you just need to watch my videos every day, study this aspect, and prepare in advance.
So, like this. Now that the stock market has rebounded, questions are starting to arise such as, "Should I enter now?" or "Will it go up or down?" However, no one—not economists, YouTubers, CEOs of major corporations, experts, or the world's top investors—can accurately predict the future of the stock market.
Therefore, instead of harboring the foolish thought of trying to predict it, we simply need to create a situation where we can enjoy both scenarios: the market could rise or it could fall. We have already "snapped" the dips during this correction. So, we have created a favorable situation known as "O-jeul"—where we simply enjoy our account growth if the market rises.
Conversely, if we look at past corrections, we must keep open the possibility that a double bottom or a stepwise decline could occur at any time. I am a staunch believer in market management and bullishness, yet I do not blindly advocate for going long. I am an investor who keeps the possibility of a decline open and prepares in advance for when it does fall.
So, what exactly is this preparation for a double bottom or further decline? It is not about selling at the peak and buying at the bottom. The strategy for preparing for a decline, as I have been emphasizing ad nauseam recently, is the cash ratio. Depending on whether or not you have this cash ratio, the dips...
When an opportunity arises, investors' psychological interpretations change. Investors holding a certain amount of cash feel psychologically secure and will view this dip as an opportunity rather than a crisis. Conversely, if you go all-in on stocks without any cash reserves, the fear of not knowing how far or how long the market will fall will consume your psyche when a dip hits.
Since you lack the cash to seize the opportunity, everything feels like a crisis and a source of fear. That is why I emphasize that long-term investors—especially those who are greedy with long-term leveraged ETF investments—must hold onto a cash portion, even if it means earning less. Making money is incredibly difficult, but that money can vanish in an instant.
So, regarding the question of how much cash you should hold, to put it simply, it varies depending on each individual's situation. Therefore, you must set your own cash ratio according to your circumstances. I will summarize this for you to understand easily. Those who have a decent monthly income or are still young enough to utilize their time to invest their spare cash long-term might allocate about 80% to stocks, while cash...
You can set it at around 20%. The cash allocation mentioned here refers to the cash reserve to be used during a bear market or a massive market crash. Conversely, if you have a relatively low monthly income or are older with retirement approaching and therefore have limited time, you should reduce your stock allocation.
For instance, you could set your stock allocation at 70% and your cash allocation at 30%, or you could allocate 50% to stocks and 50% to cash. There is no single right answer to this. You need to honestly and objectively assess yourself, determine the allocation that allows you to grow your assets while protecting your hard-earned money in the event of a crisis, and establish a principle accordingly.
For those who feel their current cash allocation is too low—less than 10%—I would advise letting go of greed and increasing your cash holdings, even if the market were to rise further. Of course, since I already hold at least 10% in cash, I am not selling right now and am simply holding onto my investments.
However, if you are currently heavily invested or your cash allocation is too low relative to your situation, I suggest considering increasing it now, even if the market rises. So you don't regret it. Why is it that we can see Warren Buffett, who advocates for long-term investing of over 10 years, has reduced his weighting in Apple by about half?
In other words, he didn't sell everything, but he is rebalancing to some extent. I also find myself considering this possibility: perhaps he kept a quantity he absolutely wouldn't touch to hold for even longer, and then rebalanced the rest. This is because, similar to Coca-Cola and a few other stocks, he sold off all but exactly 400 million shares.
Why is Warren Buffett, who advocates for long-term holding, rebalancing the world's number one stock? He is not just an investor well-versed in theory, but a practitioner, and he already knows that practice is different. Theoretically, it doesn't matter when we buy; we could just make a lump-sum purchase at any time and mindlessly buy whenever our paycheck comes in.
However, among the investors or wealthy people you know, is there anyone who became rich that way? No. They are investors who scooped up when prices were low. In other words, theory and practice are different. That is why you must hold a cash position. Within that theory lies your environment, situation, and psychology...
I did not enter the market. I hope you engage in practical investing tailored to your environment, situation, psychology, mindset, and even your financial capacity. I still view the market positively, but I am preparing for potential risks. That is why we were able to successfully "snap up" the dips with you all this time as well.
The reason is that we did not buy when the price rose, but maintained a cash position. This means we were able to prepare for risk and view it as an opportunity. Additionally, I am sharing this data in case there is any misunderstanding. Just because I mentioned a double bottom with further decline earlier does not mean I am telling you to short.
I am saying that I cannot predict that exactly. Conversely, the market could rise. This is because the dip in August of the presidential election year was a very good timing for buying. In fact, if you look at the red circle, it marks August of the presidential election year. You can confirm that they were all very good opportunities to buy.
Furthermore, looking at the long-term graph of global liquidity, liquidity is now shifting back into supply. Therefore, I advise that we should always view the upward-trending US stock market positively and optimistically, while preparing for the worst-case scenario. And regarding the stock and cash ratios that suit you personally...
Please set it up properly and let's stick together for as long as possible. In the worst-case scenario, if you lose money, no one will take responsibility for it. I am not responsible for yours either. That is why I take responsibility for my own money. Please configure your strategy so that you can grow your assets while protecting them without losing money.
That is why I sometimes increase my cash holdings to about 10%, and at other times, up to 30%. I have been doing this for the past four years, and while my assets have fluctuated, they continue to rise, and I am steadily moving toward becoming wealthy. If you utilize the Puddle Trading Method, cash allocation, and time together with me, you will be able to continue growing your assets. .
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