저자: Kevin · 외국인
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3월 17일 FOMC와 파월 발언을 앞두고 시장 급락 위험을 경고. 은행 SLR 규제 연장 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 수익률 상승은 연준이 원하는 바라 YCC 없을 것으로 판단. 연준 점도표·SEP 변화(GDP·실업률·PCE 상향, 금리 인상 시점 앞당김)가 핵심 변수로 시장 하락 요인. 1개월 이상 매수를 자제하고 현금 비중을 늘림. 극단 상승 10%, 보합 55%, 급락 35% 확률 제시.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here we need to talk about the fed because the fed could literally destroy the market uh well you might be watching this tomorrow so i should just say the date on wednesday march 17th which is almost one year to the date almost the bottom of the market march 23rd of 2020 when the market was totally in the big old doldrums and things weren't pretty good on march 17th last year either okay because march 16th was one heck of a sell-off but the point is the federal reserve could do some serious damage to markets tomorrow and i'm not happy about it and i'm not very enthusiastic there is a reason why i have not sent a single freaking buy alert to my course members in the stocks and psychology and money group in seven days now which is a long period of time for me not to buy stocks that's cause i'm loading up on that cash cause the fed could be pretty nasty tomorrow there are two big catalysts that we're looking for tomorrow all right let me first explain details here as well the federal reserve chairman jerome powell will be speaking at 2 30 p.m on a march 17th and he will be discussing the outcome of the two-day policy meeting the fomc federal open market committee policy meeting essentially they'll be discussing the results of those federal reserve chairman jerome powell will give a prepared statement and then he will answer questions for about 45 minutes what jerome powell says or does not say during this discussion and initial speech will not only be picked apart word for word but could make or break the market tomorrow the market's already very tenuous and we saw that today here on the 16th we saw a lot of tenuousness in stocks and i mean look we had a good open but after the first hour here on tuesday the market just started selling off because it's like wait a minute tomorrow's fed day it's almost like the suits woke up and they're like oh yes ducks are doing good jerome powell speaking tomorrow sell everything like seriously like it used to be don't fight the fed jerome powell this savior is coming out to speak now it's bad and it's all bad because of what happened last time around and that was when jerome powell spoke a couple thursdays ago on an interview and he was asked hey bonds bond deals just skyrocketed they shot up at the fastest velocity we have seen bond yields go up in over 10 years what are you gonna do about it mr powell and remember the stock market's like dude you've been here for us every day so far you keep bailing us out like what are you going to do for us this time uh we're worried about inflation coming like please assuage our fears of this inflation coming and jerome powell's like everything appears to be operating normally here we want inflation we're trying to get interest rates up we're trying to get rates to two percent or trying to get inflation to two and a half percent we're not planning on doing anything now but i mean look if bond yields are going up because they think there's going to be inflation cool sweet i'll write that off my list success and the stock market lost it lost it i mean we had the bloodiest thursday and friday uh in this crash that we had over the last month here because of powell now obviously we could say we've had the greatest run in over a year because of powell and the money printer but what jerome powell says or does not say tomorrow is going to potentially amplify in either direction what happens now i have expectations we'll talk about those expectations but let's make the two catalysts very simple catalyst number one is jerome powell making a statement about anything that could affect yields if jerome powell says hey standard leverage ratio or standard liquidity ratio over the banks we'll go ahead and extend that we'll let the banks have less money on hand and uh you know what we'll just um extend the cares act program that expires at the end of this month which lets banks have less cash on hand so that they have more money for for potential losses or issues that come up if fed chairman jerome powell says hey we're cool with you having less cash on hand that means banks could potentially buy more bonds yields come down market's happy if we see any kind of yield curve control where the fed says you know we're going to start buying some longer-term bonds we're going to buy instead of maybe 10 years we're going to buy some more 20 30 yields that has the effect of pushing down long-term rates which is a form of yield curve control the market's going to cheer that the market is going to cheer anything that implies additional liquidity or lower rates that will be very very good for the stock market it certainly will be very very good for tech stocks unfortunately i don't think that's going to happen now there is a second catalyst but let me talk let me finish the thought here on on problem or catalyst i should say number one and give my opinion on it on catalyst number one i don't expect catalyst number one going any differently from what we had two weeks ago and that was fed shared jerome powell going look money's flowing markets are working if yields are going up we don't we don't see a problem with that or if yields are going up we don't see a problem with that in fact uh we'll you know if we think inflation is getting out of hand or something we'll do something about that but we don't think there's going to be inflation we think we're going to have temporary spikes due to base effects comparing to a year ago and temporary spikes due to a reopening but we think those will be transitory in nature he'll say they'll say we don't see persistent inflation happening we think money markets and you know liquidity is operating as intended we don't think the banks need uh to have these low reserves anymore because they're writing off less losses i mean this was something i just covered all eyes look at this look at this you think the fed is going to be nice to the banks after this on page one of the wall street journal come on folks banks i cash reserves for profits u.s banks are sitting on a pile of cash that could turn into billions of dollars of profits you think jerome powell is waking up on tuesday going banks need help no my expectation is not good for tomorrow for you know when when chair powell talks because chair powell is not going to give the market what the market wants the market wants some more cheap simi you want some more print money let's go come on just just one more hit just one more hit come on please one more hit it's what the market wants market's not going to get it tomorrow and that's why we started selling off today i really believe that fed chair pedro powell is literally gonna do nothing he's gonna let this bank thing expire he might not even address it i think he's going to get asked about it and if he gets asked about it i wouldn't be surprised if he just blows it off and says ah we haven't determined yet that's gonna be a blow off it's gonna be like march 30th and they're just gonna let it expire i wouldn't be shocked they'll just kind of let this bond thing play out and then they'll just let that bank uh slr expire wouldn't shock me whatsoever i mean that's what i would do if i were chair powell and i were reading this stuff in the wall street journal and probably doing research to reiterate the same thing and it's true banks didn't lose as much money as they thought they would lose so they got plenty more cash they set us a bunch of money aside for a rainy day and they didn't need it so i don't think banks are going to be happy uh you know and i think everybody's kind of expecting that i don't think they're going to institute any kind of yield curve controls because what is happening with bond yields going up is literally what the fed wants they want this this is good for them and the auctions are going fine there was a panic initially with how quickly the yields went up but the auctions are going fine there's enough balance the supply and demand is right the fed doesn't have to change anything so not expecting change it's just going to be bad for tech oh well maybe a buying opportunity again the second catalyst okay and this is potentially a bigger one because we already have this strong expectation from the last time jerome spoke that nothing's gonna happen okay so what's the second possible thing what else could fed chair screw up tomorrow you know sorry i don't want to come across too blunt but oh well i am something called the summary of economic projections the scp notice what it says here for release at 2 pm eastern time december 16th 2020.
this is uh this is what the fed does when they release these they have these uh documents embargoed until exactly 2 p.m well we got one coming up tomorrow which you might be watching this on the 17th so today at 2 p.m eastern time it's the same thing and they are on time these people are sharp this is not like biden or trump taking 30 minutes to show up because both of them are late all the freaking time to their events this stuff shows up on time they're on point and there are two very important pages that we have to look at page of importance number one is the change between the last summary of economic projections in the next one so for example what we're looking for is any kind of change that could signal the fed is interested in moving rates higher let's go ahead and just erase all this jibber-jabber that i wrote on here from the last time let's grab a little highlighter here and let's do a little bit of highlighting so the this this summary of economic projections here from december indicates that the fed believes we will have gdp growth of 4.2 percent and that we will end up in 2024 plus with 1.8 growth if the fed increases their projection if this number goes up if this number goes up then it's possible the fed's thinking oh the economy is doing much better than expected which is something i do think the fed is going to do and that number goes to 4.5 or 5 or 6 percent people are going to perceive that as oh oh fed thinks growth is coming back faster that means they're going to increase interest rates faster it's that simple and the market's going to sell off it already is because of this expectation if the unemployment rate is expected to be below 5 in 2021 it's gonna change expectations people i think the market might sell off especially to attack again if uh we see the unemployment rate in 2022 go under four percent oh you better believe when that unemployment rate goes under four percent people are going to think that's it the fed's raising rates sooner and tapering remember there are two things the fed could likely do they could begin tapering their bond purchases sooner and then they'll eventually raise rates and the stock market doesn't like the idea of that even though this is all a bunch of bull crap short term crap thinking it's not like i want to sell out of the market and not be in the market and not be participating in the market just just because oh over time yields are going to go up again and interest rates are going to go up again i don't care bring it on i'm still going to invest in train america but anyway inflation going up or i'm sorry gdp going up the unemployment rate going up and certainly inflation expectations which the fed fed's measure is the pce here any kind of increase in these figures here is absolutely going to make people nervous that oh the fed's going to taper sooner and then interest rates are going to go up so this is a very very very very certainly over here but we're not going to see any change down here they're not going to clearly signal oh yeah we think interest rates are going to go up over it's i don't expect to see any change down here the biggest changes we see are really going to be in this box right here so you got to look for this page table 1 economic projections of the fed reserve board very very important keep this in mind my timeline this is kevin's timeline okay now and i believe between now and rates going up is 18 months but now gets delayed by the start of taper so let me explain that the day the fed starts tapering bonds the day they say hey instead of buying 120 billion dollars in bonds every month we're gonna buy a hundred billion we're gonna put less money into the market we're gonna print less money then we're gonna go to 80 billion then we're going to go to 60 billion the day that happens i think we are 18 months away from rates going up now the fed has told us they will tell us quote and they're going to say this again tomorrow they have told us regularly we will tell you well in advance of any kind of tapering so i don't actually think tapering is going to happen tomorrow which would start that 18 month o'clock where maybe we see rates go up in 22.
i don't see that but a way that the fed can start signaling things to us is this table folks this table right here this is this is where the money is right here that's gonna be a big change uh the next thing we're gonna look at is we're gonna look for the dot plot right here and so this dot plot says that uh these are sort of people on on the board at the federal reserve and they get to determine hey what do we think rates are going to be in the future so what's kind of cool here is you can add these up right now 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16.
so you got 16 dots here uh and everywhere there's a dot it says oh okay so two people think rates should be three percent in the long run it just says longer one which is really 20 24 plus right two people think that you know one person thinks 2.75 a bunch of people think 2.5 and one person thinks 2.0 right so pretty much everyone's pretty heavy on on being at that 2.5 level but look at this you've actually got one member saying no no we should raise rates in 2022 and you've got uh five members who say no no no we should raise rates in 2023.
if all of a sudden this gets a whole lot more crowded and we and this could this could spook the market and we start seeing something like uh you know we uh you know we start seeing something like this here you know and then let's go ahead and jump in here and uh you know we'll take out a little three dots so we had over here there we go so we start seeing something like that you better believe the market's going to go that time pretty there's a reason i haven't bought stocks in over a week this is the dark time now look if the fed surprises us and we don't get nastier expectations uh you know we we don't get you know we get the constant reassurance that everything's okay we're not gonna taper for a long time we're not worried about inflation our projections haven't changed our dot plot hasn't changed the market might do okay i think it'd be flat to a little bit positive i think the market would skyrocket if the fed came out and said oh banks we're going to give you more uh you know more latitude to to have more cash we're going to print more money and buy more bonds or we're gonna do yield curve controls if that happens the market will skyrocket in my opinion i think we get a skyrocket i think there's like a 10 chance of a skyrocket in fact let's go on record here something that a lot of people do not like doing but i don't care it's what i think and that's why i think you come to this channel i think there's a 10 chance of a shocker excuse me market skyrockets i think there's a we'll say 65 is that fair no i'm not that now no the next two are pretty close okay so i'm gonna go let's go to the worst case scenario here like really good projections and and a big rate increase here right so big crash crash like last week uh or this is really like two weeks ago right so two weeks ago fine crash like two weeks ago let's give that a 35 chance of happening uh that means i think there's a 55 percent chance of just a flat and uh soft market after jerome speaks today all right well whenever you're watching this on the 17th so those are my thoughts uh and we know what to look for so we know what to look for we know these thoughts what am i doing with money i'm building up as much cash as frequently possible to keep margin as low as possible i'm at about 30.1 percent right now obviously if stocks go up my margin outstanding goes down which would be great but i'm not going to rely on that so i'll have to really see a sweet opportunity to go buy now if we get a crash that 35 thing happens and we get a big sell-off again tesla goes under 600 again you know what i'm doing uh and i might actually add to some opportunities then too i might i might add a few new stocks that i want to get into but i would have to i'll wait for a discount to get into those i'm certainly not going to get into something that's uh that's up substantially and uh is and while the fed's behaving the way it is right now so i'm gonna be a little more cautious because these next three months could be problematic so keep that in mind if you want more of my uh sort of guidance psychology thoughts and opinions uh i feel like i do some form of discussion like this regularly uh with course members almost every day in the live stream i guess sort of a summary of here's my feeling today this is what i think is going on in the market check out that coupon code we expire we extended it for a few days just to make sure people with stimulus checks can get in there were so many requests for that get 38 off use that coupon code hotel and folks see you in the next video thanks for watching you
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