저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 2022년 하락장에서 비트코인이 최근 큰 폭으로 조정받았지만 경기침체 속에서 아직 바닥이 아니라고 본다. 그는 기관투자자의 비트코인 유입을 핵심 근거로 든다. 블랙록과 코인베이스의 파트너십 등으로 기관 인프라가 갖춰지고 있다는 것이다. 추정치로는 기관이 비트코인에 2.5%만 배분해도 가격이 두 배 이상 오를 수 있다고 하며, 유동 공급이 약 300만 개 수준으로 제한적이라 수요 증가 시 가격 상승폭이 더 커질 수 있다고 주장한다. 2030년 비트코인 가격 목표는 100만 달러이며, 이 전망에 대한 자신감이 높아졌다고 밝힌다. 과거 경험으로 비트코인을 초기에 매수해 큰 수익을 봤고, 멕시코 주식 투자에서는 큰 실수를 했다고 회고한다. 아크 인베스트는 비트코인, 줌, 테슬라 등 혁신 기반 자산에 투자하는 전략을 쓰고 있다고 소개된다. 단기적으로 연준의 다음 행보와 금리 인상이 시장 변동성을 키울 수 있으며, 글로벌 경기침체 가능성도 열려 있다고 본다. 출연자 전망 요약: 장기적으로 비트코인 강세를, 단기적으로는 하락 압력과 변동성을 경계하는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin especially this year has succumbed to the significant deterioration in most asset classes hey guys welcome back to Library of wealth today we have the CEO of Arc invest Kathy Wood on the crash in the stock in crypto markets and what effect it's having on bitcoin wood goes over a scenario in which Bitcoin actually doubles in price which would put it right around the Forty thousand dollar range she says that she's surprised at how badly Bitcoin has performed in the current environment and even though we're in a recessionary climate Kathy says that we haven't seen the worst of it she believes that the current trajectory we're seeing now is only a precursor of what's to come let's check out this interview with Kathy Wood as she goes over her financial outlook for Bitcoin as well as the crypto market and what impact Rising interest rates will have don't forget to like And subscribe if you enjoy the content we do here on this channel let's get right into the video I think a lot of people have been surprised at how badly Bitcoin has done in this environment but what has happened especially since we first started doing our research a lot more investors have become involved with it traditional and hedge fund investors and so in a risk-off environment which is what inflation and higher interest rates has meant over the last year and a half and a risk-off environment uh Bitcoin especially this year has succumbed to the significant deterioration in most asset classes I mean this is the worst bond market believe it or not since 1788 more than 200 years ago go we've never been in this bad a bond market certainly through the first half of the year the stock market worst through the first half since 1970 and Bitcoin uh Bitcoin was doing well until last November at almost hit 70 a thousand now it's down to the low 20s and yes our confidence has increased believe it or not in our price Target one of the reasons is the partnership between BlackRock and coinbase we're seeing the traditional investment firms really being pulled by their clients into supporting or providing an infrastructure for institutional investing in the space and uh by our estimates alone if institutional investors put two and a half percent into Bitcoin that would more than double the price uh right now what feels that if everyone followed her method it it would dramatically increase the value of Bitcoin the only issue is there is a large illiquid supply of people who hold Bitcoin and never sell this restricts the flow of the digital Commerce space and Emerging Markets are already being terrorized by inflation which is collapsing purchasing power with only 3 million Bitcoin and illiquid Supply Kathy believes this could drive the price even higher than double what it is now we think that that's just one use case though if you look at Emerging Markets which are being terrorized by inflation right now talk about collapsing purchasing power while while seventy thousand to the low twenties is a very big correction what it does not change that is the fact that Bitcoin is mathematically metered to top out at 21 million units and if you look at most of the supply we're at 18 and a half million units I think are out there right now Bitcoin 14 million of those are illiquid people hold on to bitcoin so if we now have this Institutional Investor base moving more aggressively into Bitcoin uh at the margin the supply relative to demand there's I think only 3 million in liquid Supply at the margin uh I think it could drive the price up much more than the doubling I've said just because of that imbalance uh so our confidence has increased in that in that forecast for 2030.
best investment is Bitcoin I remember when we first did our work on bitcoin with art laugher my former Professor I remember saying that it was 250 at the time and we were doing this white paper Chris bernitski was our Analyst at the time and when we got to the through the white paper with art I looked at him and I said oh my gosh it can serve the three rolls of money it could uh it's already serving as a store of value but how big could this be art and he said well how big is the U.S monetary base this is the first Global monetary system rules-based in history it was four and a half trillion dollars then this was two hundred and fifty dollars a six billion dollar market cap to 4.5 trillion as the potential tan today that would be eight and a half trillion and I went out I became the guinea pig for it for Arc uh right before to make sure all the plumbing worked with gbtz at the time and put my own personal money and to the point where the analyst was saying like oh well I feel so responsible this could go to zero and and uh and so it's been the best investment and you know I I put down a pretty good chunk of change there and then of course uh Arc followed very quickly at around the same price the worst investment probably I I felt very responsible at the time I was at Jennison Associates and I was that adventurous analyst who was willing to go out and look at Mexican stocks and you know Chinese stocks and the the worst investment I we had loaded up on Mexican stocks I was the ant Prime analyst and you know uh I did not believe that Mexico would devalue that because the leadership was saying they would never revalue well we didn't take any of the risk off as that risk was building and that's the worst mistake I've made I think in my career and it it made the difference at Jenison between outperforming the big benchmarks that year and underperforming we underperformed so I felt very responsible you know there are a lot of in the traditional Asset Management World there are a lot of what I call inductive thinkers they they take company information and try and put a picture together we need both we need deductive thinkers as a starting point if they can be both fantastic but the deductive thinkers are really good at figuring out how to size markets and to figure out where the unit economics are going to be so that's the second screen and then if uh if the analyst or prospective analyst gets through our director of research then the analyst usually comes to me and I am looking for I don't know have you heard of you know the the book blink blink is where there are a lot of subliminal things that you can pick up in an interview I think that's my role and it's also again about the cultural fit uh just you know the body language the appetite for adventure and that sort of thing the ability to withstand criticism which of course we get a lot of that uh so those are the sorts of questions I'm asking because by the time they get to me they're we know they're a good cultural fit we know they have powerful intellect and and so there are just a few few more things we have to know about them wood says there's currently no way to tell if we're exiting the bear Market or if we're only in a trading range Arc invest has utilized a strategy to invest in innovation-based ideas like Bitcoin zoom and Tesla Kathy also analyzes the current market's record high inflation Rising volatility as well as the chances of a global recession in 2022 while we wait to see what the FED will do next there are institutions wanting to participate in the crypto space but they have no efficient way to do so she says the Tipping Point from retail to institutional adoption could be much lower and her price target of one million dollars per Bitcoin by 2030 is still very much the path she sees Bitcoin on we'll be keeping an eye on this what do you think of Kathy Woods prediction for Bitcoin and the future of the crypto industry let us know in the comments below thanks so much for watching don't forget to like And subscribe this is library of wealth we'll see you in the next video
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