저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 경기침체는 확실시되며, 규제와 기술 변화가 물가·고용·기업이익에 복합적 영향을 준다는 주장. [경기·시장 전망] 경기침체는 확실하다고 봄. 시기와 소비재·서비스 가격에 미치는 영향이 관건. 암호화폐 시장이 경기침체의 가장 큰 피해자가 될 것이며, 지표들이 2008년 주가 폭락과 유사하다고 언급. 일부는 이미 주식시장 폭락 중이라고 보나, 발언자는 단정하지 않음. 최근 5개월간 글로벌 시가총액 소실 규모가 엄청나다고 언급. [규제: 이익 상한제] 이익률 상한(예: 10%)은 과잉이익을 임금으로 재배분하려는 취지지만, 기업이 사업을 다시 짜 사람을 줄이는 역효과가 있다고 주장. 저숙련 일자리(이민자·청년 첫 일자리) 감소 및 경제 파급효과 우려. 캘리포니아 입법자들이 인센티브 작동 방식을 이해하지 못한다고 비판. [자동화·AI] 맥도날드 사례: 계산원은 이미 사라졌고, 수년 내 로봇 임대로 인력이 1/2~1/3 감소할 것. 기술 도입 시 기술 창출자가 생산성 증가분의 약 1/3~1/2을 가져가고, 결국 생산성 향상으로 가격은 하락할 것이라고 봄. 무어의 법칙은 GPU로 이동해 끝나지 않았다는 견해. [제약·의료] IRA(인플레이션 감축법)의 약값 협상과 처방약 본인부담 상한(연 2,000달러)이 고가 약 기업의 R&D 모델을 바꿔 AI(알파폴드 등) 중심으로 전환시키고, 연구인력 감소를 야기할 것이라고 주장. [리스크] 향후 몇 달간 평균 소비자 타격이 가장 클 것. 신용·주택시장의 금융 조정과 대출금리 급등 주시 필요. [출연자 전망] 주식시장이 현재 공포 기반으로 움직이나 폭락 여부는 단정하지 않음. 금리 상승 환경이 지속될 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
i think that the folks writing these laws have just an extremely poor understanding of economics and capitalism [ath on the all in podcast giving us the news and stocks economy and the financial markets we've had some pretty severe corrections recently and recession is a certainty at this point but the question is how soon and what that will do to the price of goods and services in the meantime the crypto market will be one of the biggest affected by this economic downturn and all indicators point to the massive similarities between the current recessionary climate and the stock market crash of two thousand eight let's get into the interview with chamath as he lets us know what to the first thing that it does effectively and everybody can understand this is it caps the profitability of a company right because it effectively says if you look at an industry that is over earning then this council will essentially see money that should be reappropriated to employees now that idea is not necessarily a bad thing for example you see that all the time in technology right if you look at the ebitda margins of like big tech and how they've changed they've actually eroded over time as the companies have had to generate more revenue because employees demand more and more of those gains that's an implicit part of how the free market economy works in technology so you know if you don't feel like you're getting paid well at you know google you go to meta and you get paid more and vice versa so there's a natural effect of people being able to do that in certain markets but when you impose a margin and essentially say you can only make 10 because the rest of these profits i'm giving to these folks because i've imputed their new wage to be something that's much greater than what they were paying before the unfortunate thing is what friedrich said which is that you will rebuild that business without those people because it is the rational thing to do and so unfortunately what you'll do is you'll take a bunch of people that should be in the economy right think about like new immigrants or young people that are first getting on their feet they'll take these jobs you know i mean i first yeah i worked at burger king when i was 14 that's how i got my first yeah you you those jobs won't be there to be had and that has ripple effects as these folks get older or try to get more ingrained in the economy and this is what i wish california would understand is that these things aren't free and even though they seem like you're coming to someone's rescue there's all kinds of unintended consequences and very obvious consequences that you're ignoring by not really understanding how the economy works the increasing prices of goods and services along with stagnant wages slower business growth and a surge in layoffs a recession is a certainty at this point some believe we're currently in a stock market crash as we speak because of all the panic selling that's going on the amount of global market value that has been wiped out in just the last five months is astounding and now the banking infrastructure is being threatened also the sad reality is that within a few years unfortunately you'll know a lot fewer people that work at mcdonald's because the number of jobs for humans will be dramatically lower they got rid of the cashiers that's gone already or what people will be more acutely aware of in a number of years is how expensive mcdonald's has gotten because if the price does no that that won't be because like again mcdonald's has a very simple no not not even the market mcdonald's is not stupid they understand how to use excel and so they'll think well i can amortize a robot versus actually jacking up um prices because what mcdonald's understands is the sensitivity of pricing to demand for their product yeah that's right i mean they are the most intelligent about how they price every anything at the sort of the lower end where you're capturing you know nickels and dimes they are the most sophisticated and understanding supply demand and and and the curves and so to think that they're not going to just invest heavily now at the corporate level the next franchisee of mcdonald's will still pay a million dollars for franchise fee but will give will be given a bevy of robots that they rent for mcdonald's and they'll have to hire half or a third less that's that's the real shame of this which is the number of people that should actually be gainfully employed in the economy will then shrink again but in this case it was because legislators just completely don't understand how incentives work and how the economy works and people are not clued into exactly how well narrow ai machine learning is doing right now by the way i'll say like it's really moving quickly one general way to think about this is is technology is introduced and the technology creator captures roughly a third to a half of the value increment because of the delivery of that technology the productivity increment so let's say that it costs 12 15 an hour to employ a mcdonald's laborer today and let's say that you can build technology that the amortized robotic cost is ten dollars an hour there will be a technology company that will make 250 an hour off of that so net net what ends up happening is productivity has to be gained and prices will reduce and so you know there are moments like this where there could be an acceleration of technology and also an opportunity for new industries to emerge and when that happens new jobs emerge too i think people misunderstand that moore's law has actually not ended um and this is something that a friend of mine adam deangelo characterized to me a beautiful human being together he was a cto facebook when i worked there so we this is you know we we've known each other for 15 16 years and now he's a ceo and founder of quora but you know the the way that he described it to me which is so true the minute he said it i was like my gosh it's like moore's law never ended it just shifted to gpus you know because the inherent lack of parallelization that cpus have you solved with gpus and so that's why the the surface area of compute of innovation has actually shifted jason to what you're saying which is you know all of these new kinds of machine learned models because you can just now brute force and create such a tonnage of compute capabilities and resources to solve these problems that weren't possible before so you know you see this thing you know fun things like wally or you know dally sorry and more sophisticated things like gpt3 but he's right which is that you know we are at a point now where all kinds of expert systems which is sort of like v1 simple forms of ai are going to be completely next level and so when gov exactly and so when governments don't understand this and they try to it you know step in they're going to be shocked at how much faster they're pulling forward the actual future they actually are trying to prevent here's another example of this in a law that just passed so in the ira the inflation reduction act you know we granted cms and medicare the ability to negotiate drug prices and we actually also capped the total prescription costs that any american can pay at two thousand dollars now it turns out that overwhelmingly most americans will never spend two thousand dollars a year on prescription medications but there will be a few and they bump up against drugs that cost millions of dollars so there was a you know there's a drug for you know uh sma um that's like you know 2.4 million and like you know beta thalassemia of like 2.8 million and you're and and we will all bear the cost of that now if cms and medicare go and really crunch those costs what is pharma going to do well pharma is going to do what is the obvious thing which is like if you're going to cap what i can make i have to completely change my r d model and they're just going to use alpha fold you know and what it's really going to do is potentially put a bunch of research scientists out of work and those are folks that should probably in the you know for our general future be gainfully employed but the nature of their job is going to change completely because the economic capitalist incentive of big pharma is going to move towards technology which is you know an alpha fold and their protein library is the equivalent of ai and automation for mcdonald's so this is where again governments have to be super careful that they understand what's actually happening because they're creating incentives i think that they don't completely understand even though the market may be operating on fear right now the coming months will be a clear indicator of what we can the average consumer will be the one affected most by this recessionary climate and something else to keep an eye on is the financial corrections happening in the credit and housing markets the interest rates on loans are rapidly increasing and chamath believes we may actually be see market conditions right now and how do you think the average consumer will be affected comment down below
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