저자: KevinHanks · 외국인
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지난주 기술주 대규모 매도 후 반등 여부를 점검하며 중동 지정학(이란·후티 해상 봉쇄 선언, 휴전설)과 유가 80달러 근처 변동이 시장 핵심 변수라고 봄. 이번 주 알파벳·테슬라·IBM 등 메가캡 실적과 은행권 호실적을 주목. 칩주(엔비디아·브로드컴·AMD) 약세 후 MAG7 리더십 회복 여부를 관찰. 보잉은 대규모 주문 소식에도 주가 회복이 제한적이며 GE 에어로스페이스의 엔진 독점적 지위는 긍정적으로 언급.
다듬은 글
moment. But if you want to learn more about the forces driving the market this morning, I'm joined by Kevin Hanks live from the CBOE for our pre-bell guide. So, Kevin, futures are pointing to a higher open this morning after a pretty significant sell-off in tech stocks last week. So is this recovery in chip stocks a true reboot, or just a sigh of relief after seeing last week's intense trading ease off?
Good morning, Jen. Yes, we are monitoring the crude oil markets. Apparently it was almost $85 this morning. There it was below 80. There are a lot of headlines about crude oil. The latest news a few minutes ago was that Iran, the Houthis, and their allies in Yemen are declaring a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.
This returned the price of crude oil to flat or slightly higher levels throughout the day. We'll see how it goes. There are rumors of a 10-day ceasefire that could come after you mentioned the nine days of US bombing. Last week, the price of crude oil certainly rose from $70 to over $80. So we're certainly keeping an eye on that, but it looks like the stock markets are more focused on earnings this week as we start to prepare for the full-scale earnings release.
This week we will have some famous names. Wednesday will be a big day with Google, Alphabet, IBM, Tesla, Texas Instruments . We will have several more airlines within the week. We will get American Express. They will be released on Friday. Thursday is still a big day with Intel and Honeywell. So there are, you know , the numbers, earnings volume is starting to pick up with some big names, but it looks like the market is coming off the recent VA volatility, starting the day higher, Jen, but who knows what we'll do next.
I know, and especially because, as you mentioned, with the mega-cap earnings really starting this week, we see Alphabet, Tesla, I mean pretty big names that obviously can cause a lot of, I mean, ancillary market maker moves, as we've just seen historically. How important are these reports, say, in stabilizing sentiment about some of these fast-growing tech stocks?
Well, you know, Jen, the interesting thing is that a lot of these companies, let's take Tesla, you know, last December it was trading at almost $500. It fell $1.20, almost $120 from its highs. Google Alphabet traded at $408 in May of this year. So that's $50 or $60 below its recent highs. So, both of these companies that are coming out with earnings this week, if they show good solid numbers, remember, Tesla, uh, will be part of SpaceX, you know, SpaceX, uh, was sold late last week due to a canceled launch of one of their rockets.
So, you know, there's some volatility around these companies right now . They all seem to be recovering early in the day, but, you know, the chip sell-off , and Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD, their stocks were hit hard late last week. So, I think there are a lot of names like that, you know, the S&P will start the week a little bit above 7460, let's say.
But a lot of these names have been beaten, especially MAG 7. If that leadership starts to take its place again, it could get really interesting. But obviously, Jen, the most important thing to start the day with is geopolitics still dominates. A very slow week for economic data. We have virtually nothing except the usual weekly ones we receive, such as mortgage applications and unemployment claims.
Also , we will get some PMIs on Friday. It's really all about the economic data, Jen. So, it will be geopolitics. These will be profits. Good. And so, as you mentioned, geopolitics obviously plays a role in energy conversations. Oil has been a pressure point around tensions in the Middle East. But if energy prices continue to rise from here, I mean, how quickly could that become a problem for, say, stocks and some of these general inflation expectations?
Well, at the end of last week, it was clearly already a problem. The price of crude oil fell from below $70 to above $80, and the market was struggling late last week. Friday was a pretty strong day of decline. So the question is, are we escalating tensions, or are they dissipating this morning? There was a little bit of both .
There have been rumors of a ceasefire or talks that Iran wants to restart. But then there is news from Saudi Arabia and Yemen. So I think there's a lot going on and investors are going to have to digest that as they look at the earnings that we're going to get throughout the week. And so far, you know, the start of the reporting season has been pretty impressive.
Jen, I know. And I will say that anyone who is so quick to say that we have broad turbulence right now, that this is the underlying theme of this market, I would actually argue that the sentiment underlying this market is still very strong. I mean, the big banks, the financial companies, even the regional companies, of course, had a really solid reporting season.
So, I think this sets the tone for these mega-cap tech companies. It seems we're going to have to see big numbers from these companies. Absolutely true. And when Tesla comes out , remember that they change. They are essentially transforming their company. So you'll want to hear updates on robo- taxis and robotics, as well as the relationship with SpaceX that seems to be keeping everyone on edge.
So I think that's important. I think Google Alphabet, every part of what is now key in the U.S. economy, that Google Alphabet is involved in. So I think that would be a big disadvantage. Some of the weaknesses, you know, the last one, like I said, in May it was $48, now, but now it's around 360, so the stock has come down from the highs.
Yeah, I think there are big... Remember, the last two quarters we've really struggled with what's been bothering us about capital expenditure, capital expenditure and capital expenditure costs, and actually companies having to raise cash, and these hyperscalers. So I think we'll want to see some accountability, some moderate capital spending, things like that, um, could get these things going.
You already saw some news from Meta Platforms on Friday. They had some good news that they might actually start selling excess capacity. So, I think there's a lot of news. You need to hold hands, Jen. It will be very restless here. I know. Actually, I'm a little happy to see maybe some volatility movement.
I mean, honestly , from a VIC perspective, things have actually been pretty calm. But to move on to some of these individual moves, Boeing is focused on new orders at the Farnborough Air Show as it continues in the UK. So what are we really watching for in aerospace companies this week? We, of course, discussed really solid numbers from GE Aerospace.
Last week, the Farnborough Air Show, held in Hampshire, England, was in the spotlight all week. It lasted from July 20 to 26. So, we're going to get headlines every day about aviation, Boeing, Airbus, GE jet engines, you know, GVE aviation, all of that will be in the spotlight. Boeing is already painting the tape with orders from, let's see, AirCap, they're talking about Riad, uh, SMBC has ordered 100 planes.
Philippine Airlines, another 2787 , you know, uh, Air Force One, they have news about that. Here is the news from the FAA. One of their administrators was talking about, uh, the 737 Max 7 and 10, which are about to be certified . So this is good news for Boeing. But if you're Kelly Ortberg and you're Boeing, you're interested in a few things.
First, it's delivering aircraft, filling the backlog, healing the balance sheet , understanding, increasing production so they can continue to deliver the 737 Max. This restores their balance. Remember, Jen, in March 2019, Boeing shares were trading at $446 when the two crashes occurred, and since then the shares have been, you know, in the $ 200 to $250 range, and even lower.
So, these stocks struggled for a long time to recover. So, Kelly Orberg, the CEO , an engineer by training, you know, he's in Seattle at the factory, doing the work. So, the news is good, but I don't know anyone who thought Boeing would still be this low, so many years into 2019. So , good news from Boeing.
They continue to pile up good news in the news, but the stock has fallen over the last 12 months, Jen. It's down about 7.5% now, and it was on a really good recovery path earlier this year, but I mean, that's obviously due to ... well, even beyond higher costs. I mean, it's obviously exposed to oil, exposed to some of the tensions that are still, frankly, in the Middle East, and has it become a risk story now, mainly because it seems like aerospace stocks have really collectively rolled back.
G was just a great example of that. I mean, this time was really one of our most successful (no pun intended), but even the profits weren't enough to significantly move the needle, at least in terms of sentiment lately. Yeah, GE airplanes have an incredible history, don't they? After the breakup of GE as a company, that's the jet engine they supply for 100% of the 737, but they also supply Airbus jet engines, and their main competitor is Pratt and Whitney, and Pratt and Whitney has had some quality issues.
So GE jet engines or GE Aviation are in a really good position. And while the news will be about Boeing and Airbus, GE will also have some good news from the Farm Air Show. Yes. So much to pay attention to, and like you said, buckle up. This will be a busy week for us. So there's a lot of news to cover, but I'm very grateful to Kevin Hanks for this whole breakdown.
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