저자: TomWhite · 외국인
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2분기 실적은 대체로 예상치를 상회(TSMC 매출·EPS 상회, 총마진 67.7%, 3분기 매출 446~458억달러 가이던스). UNH 실적 호조 및 연간 EPS 가이던스 상향(19.5~20달러). GE Aerospace 수주 잔고 증가 및 EPS 가이던스 상향(7.65~7.85달러). 반면 이란 지정학 리스크와 유가 80달러대 상승으로 항공주(유나이티드)는 연료비 부담 우려, 한국 신용융자 증거금 규제 루머로 메모리·반도체주 조정. 10년물 금리 4.6% 부근, 30년물 상승.
다듬은 글
We invite Tom White, co-host of Fast Money, to help us make sense of today's events. So, Tom, there is definitely some kind of struggle of opposing forces going on here. One day, strong earnings reports take center stage and take center stage. The next day, geopolitical risks arise. What is your overall view of the markets today?
Hello, Diane. I think you're right. You know, earnings are coming in better than expected, both on the top line and the bottom line. We see these figures exceeding forecasts. I think one of the differences is that maybe a significant portion of the price movement in some of these names—you see the pullback in Taiwan Semi, GE, United Airlines today after the reporting.
But, you know what? Maybe it was already built into the share price. We've enjoyed three or four quarters in a row, you know, of above double-digit growth, and in some places, over 20% profit growth. And, uh, maybe the stock price movements that we've already observed. I keep coming out of this. What we are seeing is a slight pullback, perhaps profit-taking on some of these names.
And then add to that, as you said, the geopolitical risks and tensions that are growing here. Iran has effectively stated that they will retaliate if the US attacks infrastructure , something President Trump hinted at yesterday, saying they will begin striking them as early as next week. So, these are the concerns we are weighing right now.
Crude oil has risen significantly in price since the beginning of this month. At this point, we are at around $80 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate. Brent continues to rise at this point. But I think one of the culprits of what's happening is , and you're seeing a pushback in tech companies, right?
Especially memory chip manufacturers, Intel, AMD, Nvidia are a bit weaker this morning. And this may be related to rumors coming out of South Korea, where the government is imposing restrictions on credit ETFs by raising the margin rates required to trade these stocks. They are trying to curb the enthusiasm we have seen in stock markets in general.
You've seen significant pullbacks in shares of SK Hynix, Samsung, and some others overseas, and now it's spilling over into our markets. So, perhaps profit-taking is still ongoing in these areas as volatility or uncertainty has increased there. But I think the market probably wants to see some stability in the rates market right now, as the 10- year bond yield is just below 4.6%.
You see that the yield on 30- year bonds is currently rising. And this is happening against the backdrop of better-than- expected inflation data. Will it remain stable, or is it just a temporary phenomenon? Or perhaps oil, if the price stabilizes at $80 per barrel, will negatively impact inflation. We will likely see these rates perhaps not fall as much, but stabilize just above the Fed's 2% target.
I think one of the keys to the tech sector's recovery, Diano, is for profitability to stabilize or even decline in the near term. This may provide some support , but remember, yesterday we saw the rise of all the big tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Google Alphabet, and at the same time pressure on memory chip makers and semiconductor equipment.
So, this discrepancy persists here to some extent . They returned to hyperscalers, to the kind of familiar confidence and gains we saw earlier in the AI arms race. So let's talk a little more about Taiwan Semi's increased investment here in the US. It seems that this is partly due to competition with Intel, but tell us more about your findings.
Well, perhaps this is due to competition with Intel. I believe it's more about capacity expansion, as demand currently still exceeds supply . They announced an additional $100 billion investment in their Arizona manufacturing facilities to produce 2-nanometer chips. This brings their total investment to approximately $265 billion .
So the administration is probably happy with that. But look at the results. They exceeded expectations for total revenue. They outperformed earnings per share. They gave a higher forecast. Now, one of the issues that you might be seeing a pullback from—aside from the fact that Taiwan Semiconductor has already shown parabolic growth over the past year and a half—is gross margin.
This quarter it reached 67.7%. They predict that this figure will remain at almost the same level in the next quarter. That may be putting some pressure on the stock, but they are expecting third- quarter revenue of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion. This is approximately 12% sequential growth. And then you start looking at operating margin.
It continues to grow constantly. The profit margin is currently approaching 56%. So, everything is going as it should. They said that, you know, a big part of what they're trying to build, this high-end chip sector in the AI segment, continues to perform well. I think it's more about capacity and how long these tech companies will be willing to pay for the increased costs.
And this is one of the problems for the future. I think this worries investors . When will this capital spending end, even though these companies have said they will continue to increase spending through 2027? Uh, when will we see a peak at these levels at this point? I think this is one of the problems for investors, but you can't argue with the results here .
Maybe a little weaker on gross margin in the current quarter. Now let's move on to United Health's results, which look pretty solid. Yes, United Health Care, well, you know, it's about efficiency. Uh, you know, they had a big drop, like, $630 a share, and the stock was trading below $300 because of the mistakes they made.
But look, they posted second- quarter earnings that beat expectations on revenue and profit. They raised their full-year profit forecast going forward . Managing high medical costs and using AI to optimize operations. They are currently investing about $1.5 billion in AI . Uh, this will likely lead to job cuts at United Healthcare in the future, but the largest private health insurer said it expects earnings of $19.50 to $20 per share in 2026 .
This is higher than the previous forecast of about $18.25 per share. Uh, and then their full- year forecast is $439 billion for this company. Uh , they said the trend is better, operating costs are under control at the moment . Uh, so if you look at the price dynamics of the stock recently, it's weakening a little bit.
That's a little bit supportive of the Dow today, but I think if you look at what caused the problems for the company during the latter stages of 2025, they're starting to fix them. And I think that's what worried investors; but it was a good earnings report, higher than forecasts on all metrics, and control of medical costs.
They are starting to get rid of some unprofitable contracts , which will also help their margins grow in the future. Good. Let's also talk a little about income statements. This morning, our focus is on GE Aerospace. The company's stock is performing well , but tell us about your conclusions regarding their quarterly performance.
Yes, we discussed yesterday on Fast Market how much money they make from the service and parts divisions, and they have exceeded expectations again. We have seen growth rates of over 20% in most of their segments, including engine sales at this point. You know, maybe profit-taking is happening again, as the stock has pulled back a little bit.
They stabilized a bit after hitting lows in the aftermarket, but this is another good report from GE that only confirms that the company is doing well. Their order portfolio continues to grow. They raised their adjusted EPS forecast for fiscal 2026 from $ 7.10–$7.40 to $7.65–$7.85. So you see, if you listen to Larry Culp, the CEO, he actually says they had a strong quarter.
Revenue and EPS grew by more than 20%. And the strong commercial services segment within their business continues to perform very well. And that's what the backlog story is about . We have seen growth rates of 40 % and above in sales orders. Last quarter they were 86%. So currently this indicator continues to grow.
Now, will costs play a role? They talked a little bit about the capital expenditure numbers being up a little bit. This could be a concern going forward, but as I said, with many companies doing very well, showing extraordinary growth, and raising forecasts, perhaps a lot of the data is already built into the share price, as we have also seen the parabolic rise in GE Aerospace shares over the past few years.
Okay, let's talk about United Airlines. It seems like there's still potential there. I will say that I was aware of their focus on premium consumers, but I have to say, I was surprised that they continue to show such strength. What is your opinion? Yes, this is a good report, and it somewhat echoes what we saw with Delta Airlines.
I'm trying to figure out all these profits, you know, it's all mixed up, but I think one of the key points is higher fuel prices, right? They actually said it could add almost $6 billion to spending this year. This is significantly more than they expected for this year. They knew they would suffer because of the conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices.
But fuel costs in the second quarter rose 84% year-over- year, to about 2.3 billion. They are raising their forecast for how much they plan to spend on fuel. But if you look at the bandwidth discussion , for me it's always one of the red flags. Start increasing bandwidth . Throughput actually increased by about 3.5% in the quarter.
It's more to do with seasonality, right? Everyone flies on vacation in the summer . But at the same time, Scott Kirby actually stated that they are not going to increase bandwidth, and that is one of their problems. Currently, jet fuel prices are undoubtedly increasing the cost of airline tickets by 15–20% compared to last year.
United is taking on some of these costs, but at the same time they have no plans to lower prices, and Delta has made a similar statement that they are not going to lower ticket prices at this time . They may even continue to raise them because jet fuel prices have changed from what we saw a month or two ago and are now back to those levels.
I think one of the main things for companies like United, American, Delta, Southwest is that they are very dependent on the price of this product, right? Because this immediately affects the company's profitability. But they gave a good outlook for the future, maybe a little weak for the current quarter, and I think that's why we're seeing a slight decline in the stock, although it's also stabilizing.
So if you're following airlines, you better follow the price of crude oil, because they definitely correlate. That's a great observation. Today, West Texas Intermediate crude is trading around $80 per barrel. Thank you, Tom. It was Tom White, co-host of Fast Money. Watch Tom today at 9:00 a.m., noon Eastern Time.
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