저자: 찰리멍거 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 멍거는 향후 주식 실질 수익률이 과거 10년보다 낮아질 것이라고 봤고, 진행자도 저금리 효과 소진으로 같은 견해를 덧붙임. 멍거의 근거 1: 투자자 수 증가로 경쟁이 심해져 저평가 종목 발굴이 어려워짐. 멍거의 근거 2: 시장의 광풍(프렌지)과 과열 밸류에이션으로 기대 수익이 낮아짐. 특히 초기 성장 기업에 과도한 기대가 몰림. 멍거의 근거 3: 경영진 보상 체계가 어리석어 주주 이익과 어긋남. 매출 성장 위주 보상이나 무분별한 자사주 매입이 문제로 지적됨. 대안으로 ROE·ROIC 등 주주 가치 지표 연동을 제시. 멍거의 근거 4: 실질 수익률(인플레이션 조정)이 명목 수익률보다 낮아질 수 있음. 인플레이션 우려는 언급하되 결론은 유보. 진행자 추가 견해: 금리가 장기간 낮아져 안전자산 대비 주식 매력이 높아졌고, 그 과정에서 자산가격이 크게 올라 기대 수익이 압축됨. 금리를 더 낮추기 어려워 이 효과는 한계에 도달했다고 봄. 진행자 결론: 기업 실적이 좋아도 주가 수익률은 별개의 문제이며, 향후 주식 수익률에 대한 시청자 의견을 댓글로 요청.
다듬은 글
hey guys tom here from the investing with just a week or two ago charlie munger sat down and did a zoom video call and sort of q a session with celtic and at 96 years young charlie munger is still as sharp as ever and in this video i want to pick up on one of the questions that was presented to charlie munger and charlie munger gave a very quick and kind of snappy answer too and that was basically all about his expected returns moving forward for stocks and as you might know on this channel i don't typically like to get into sort of macro level stuff but i think charlie munger's response was really really interesting and i sort of concur with many of the things he was saying so want to play that short clip for you right after this intro and then get into some of the finer details of what charlie munger was talking about here's degree of science in 1975 asked do you expect the next 10 years to have lower returns in the equity markets than the last 10.
it doesn't give us an idea why the answer is yes could you give us a hint as to why that might happen yes because so many people are in it and the frenzy is so great and the systems of management the reward systems are so foolish that that i don't think it's going to work at all i don't think i i think the returns will go down yes in real terms the returns will be lower now in that short clip from charlie munger he very concisely gave us at least about four reasons that he expects the returns from stocks moving forward to be lower than they have been in the previous decade now those four reasons were the number of people in it the frenzy that's so great foolish management incentives and uh he sort of snuck in at the end that he expects uh returns to be lower but the way he actually phrased it was he said real returns would be lower moving forward so i want to kind of dig into that particular point as well and i'm also going to kind of tack a fifth one on the end there from myself which is basically all around interest rates so um there will be time stamps right along the bottom of the video if you just kind of want to skip forward to any one of those parts of the video but for now let's get straight into it and i hope you enjoy now the first point that charlie munger brought up here was simply the number of people investing in stocks at the moment and he sort of mentioned this in the past as well particularly as it relates to value investing and individual investors trying to pick individual stocks in an effort to sort of outperform the market and he sort of relates it back to his own time when he first got started investing now at that time he said that the competition was minimal and any people that were sort of in the finance and investing space frankly weren't all that intelligent and in recent years it's attracted a whole bunch more people and a whole bunch of really really smart people and that just creates more competition in terms of finding opportunities now with charlie munger's investing strategy he is always looking to buy things for below their intrinsic value sure he kind of converted warren buffett across to this uh wonderful business at a fair price kind of mentality as opposed to a fair business at a wonderful price but still price is very important and really value investors who are trying to outperform the market over time are really looking for heavily missed price opportunities misunderstood companies uh small companies that maybe other people just aren't looking at and the more people that are kind of in this space hunting through these opportunities and sort of turning over rocks then the lower the chances are for any one individual trying to go out and find a basket of heavily undervalued securities now the second thing that charlie mentioned which are going to drive lower stock returns moving forward is the frenzy being great and i'm sure that many of you have seen this i've seen a lot of people describe the stock market at the moment as very frothy kind of bubbly and not necessarily predicting a massive crash or anything like that but just sort of trying to say that there are certain pockets at least in the stock market where valuations are at least getting stretched if not getting you know egregiously overvalued in many cases and there's a huge amount of examples of this particularly with early stage companies now a lot of new people are in the stock market this year a lot of people are investing for the first time in 2020 and a lot of those people get drawn towards these really cool stocks towards our businesses doing new things innovating growing really really fast and in my opinion that has been both a good thing and a bad thing the great thing is it's getting a lot of people started investing and typically starting investing a lot younger than they might have otherwise been able to um but the bad thing is that a lot of them really aren't focusing on the core drivers of what makes a good investment we have talked many times on this channel about the differences between a good investment and a good business and those not necessarily always been the same thing and this sort of frenzy type action with many stocks is almost certainly going to reduce the returns moving forward one of the things that i spoke about in the previous video on this channel around warren buffett and some of the mistakes that he's made from investing was just overpaying for a business and a company i always like to use with this example is a business like microsoft it's a company that has done really well over an extended period of time it's grown its revenues it's grown its earnings it's become a larger and more valuable business but the investors for a long period of time didn't do all that well they overpaid for the business back in 1999 2000 kind of time and they basically had to sit there and watch the business do extremely well for sort of 10 or 15 years while the stock basically didn't do anything and it took them sort of a 15-year period or at least very close to it until they were able to break even on the investment so there's a lot of pockets of the stock market at the moment that i think are probably in a pretty similar situation there's some really great businesses out there doing incredible things but whether the returns will actually be good is an entirely different question now charlie's third point here was around foolish incentive programs for management teams now uh this again is kind of a topic that i covered in my previous video on some of warren buffett's investing mistakes and the categories that those investment mistakes tend to fall into and one of the things that he also spoke about was management and i kind of talked through some of the the issues that go on with management incentives now uh when you've got someone running a business for you that you are invested in ideally you want your incentives to be aligned you want um the stock price to go up as an investor and you want a ceo or a cfo or sort of an overall management team to be incentivized for the exact same things to happen for you to get good returns as a shareholder whether that be through stock price appreciation or whether it be through dividends or some other form of kind of return as a shareholder and don't get me wrong there are many great businesses with many great managers but there are a large number out there where that's simply not the case maybe they are really good business people and maybe they're great people in general but the incentives simply aren't in place for uh these management teams oftentimes to execute on things that would grow the wealth of their shareholders now i want to give you a couple of examples quickly and then kind of talk you through a couple of examples of um incentive structures that actually do work quite well which uh warren buffett has actually implemented within berkshire hathaway now there's basically two things that jump out at me as poor management incentives generally the first one is revenue growth although revenue growth is really important it can incentivize people to do some done stuff might cause them to spend a whole bunch of money on things that will grow the revenue but they don't grow the revenue anywhere near enough to justify spending all that money um you know it's easy to throw money at things like marketing or acquiring businesses at exorbitant prices those sorts of things and the other thing that often comes to mind is share buybacks just kind of happening regardless of price as a way to get the stock price up in the short term as well now really good management incentives align with uh the interests of shareholders and a way that warren buffett has done this with some of his subsidiaries at berkshire hathaway is incentivizing people on the things that matter for shareholders something like incentivizing management teams on return on equity or return on invested capital now if you take the return on invested capital example there are basically two ways that a management team can increase their return on invested capital one they can increase the return in other words the business becomes more profitable or two they can reduce the capital in other words they can return uh unnecessary money that's kind of within the business to warren buffett at headquarters of berkshire hathaway and um setting up that structure really stops the management teams from doing nefarious things it really keeps them kind of in line and doing things that are entirely in the interest of shareholders now that definitely doesn't work for every business with this return on equity or return on invested capital type metric and buffett has said many times that this needs to be really aligned with the type of business that you might be in now let's take a commodity company for example uh commodity businesses have notoriously low returns on equity and returns on investor capital because oftentimes you are selling an identical product to all of your competitors that's kind of the definition of a commodity and oftentimes you're also in a business where prices are very cyclical and you don't necessarily have a lot of control on your year-to-year profitability so instead buffett helps as managers to focus on the things they can control if you're in a commodity business that might be something like your cost of production now in any kind of commodity businesses there's basically two main things you should look at now that drive profitability one is the price you get paid and second is how much it costs you to produce that so if you're a dairy farmer here in new zealand for example and you sell kilograms of milk solids there's really two things that are going to drive profitability um how many kilos of milk solids can you sell and at what price and how much does it cost you to produce that kilo of milk solids now the price you can't really control uh in terms of what you sell uh that milk two you know each year um but the cost of production is something that you really can control and that's the way that warren buffett incentivizes his more commodity style business managers now the fourth thing that charlie manga kind of just snuck in at the end here was uh he mentioned that he expected real returns to be lower in the stock market moving forward he didn't necessarily just say returns or nominal returns or anything like that so i want to just talk on that briefly now basically real returns is the idea of uh instead of looking at you know how much of a percentage gain you make in a typical year let's say you invest a thousand dollars and it goes up to 1100 that's a 10 gain rather he looks at things in terms of purchasing power or he adjusts them for inflation so for example if you invest that thousand dollars and it goes up uh ten percent now you have eleven hundred dollars but all of the goods and services sort of around you that you wanna go and use that eleven hundred dollars to you know purchase those goods and services uh if the price of those has gone up say two percent within that same time frame your real return is only eight you've had an investment that's gone up ten percent but everything is now two percent more expensive so you now only have eight percent more purchasing power so that's kind of just something that charlie's snuck in at the end potentially he sees nominal returns just focusing on that 10 kind of percentage gain been good but we may have a lot of inflation and that's kind of a macro thing that a bunch of people have been saying lately but we'll kind of just have to wait and see how that plays out now the fifth and final thing i want to mention here is not one that comes from charlie munger it's actually one that comes from me and it's kind of a thing that i've spent a lot of time thinking about lately and i've shared a little bit here and there kind of on the channel but i want to get into it in a bit more detail and that's basically this idea of really low interest rates meaning lower returns in the future as well and um this comes down to a pretty kind of basic idea now any time that you value a particular asset whether that is a piece of real estate or a business in the stock market or a private business or whatever it might be um basically you're always comparing the return that you can get out of that asset from your next best alternative and often you're even comparing it to the safest alternative and the safest alternative for many people has been either buying bonds or just putting that money in a bank account and in the past you were able to get reasonable returns uh by doing that by just putting your money into safe investments so for uh stocks and kind of riskier assets to look attractive had to be able to see a return that was much greater than you would be getting in this sort of risk-free assets or else it simply just didn't make sense to put that money um into something risky without getting that extra return now if you take that out into sort of a real world example in terms of say buying a business um it meant that if you could get five or six or seven percent even just sitting in a bank account when interest rates were much higher um for you to go out and buy a business you would probably be expecting something like 10 or 12 or 15 now if you go out and look at say a stable business that earns a hundred thousand dollars a year for you to get a 10 return you would pay about 10 times that amount you'd pay about a million dollars to buy that business and that would get you your 10 return if you wanted a higher return you would pay a lower price again maybe you'd pay seven or eight hundred thousand dollars for that hundred thousand of cash flow if you wanted a higher return uh because you felt that's what was necessary because you had this risk-free alternative which was still producing something pretty good now what's happened though over the past couple of decades is you've gotten these assets which were priced um you know relative to these higher interest rates let's say you've got this hypothetical business that trades at 10 times earnings has stable earnings and just chugs away at an at a 10 kind of return every single year if you take that business into a lower interest rate world where it's still producing all that cash flow um basically the value of the business is going to go up and up and up and up even though it's not doing anything better and that's simply because your alternatives uh in terms of lower risk investments are looking less attractive which means that a business earning 10 a year looks more attractive and it means the price goes up and it's no longer earning 10 a year and we've run that process really aggressively over the past decade or two and in my mind it just kind of squeezed a lot of the juice out of these business returns if you were able to buy a lot of assets when interest rates were high uh those assets have just gone up and up and up and up as interest rates have come down and now we're at a point where you know interest rates can go negative but realistically they're probably not going to go another five or ten percentage points lower and have sort of the second squeeze of extra asset price inflation i think we're probably towards the end of how much we can push that one and i think that kind of squeezing of the juice out of this interest rate stuff um has really explained a lot of the returns over the past decade and we simply don't have that lever to pull moving forward so those were some absolutely massive nuggets of wisdom and a very short clip there from charlie manga plus a little bit from myself kind of added on here in there so i do hope you enjoyed i'd be keen to hear your thoughts on future returns from stocks down in the comments below as well are always interested in reading that stuff
Comments 0