저자: Tom · 외국인
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결론: 멀티배거는 이익 성장과 밸류에이션(PER) 확장이 함께 있을 때 가장 크게 나오며, 둘 중 하나만 있고 다른 하나가 역행하면 주가가 제자리일 수 있다. 이익 성장 사례: 애플은 2011~2019년 주당순이익이 약 0.75달러에서 2.97달러로 약 4배 증가했고, PER은 약 14에서 15.7로 거의 변하지 않아 주가 상승(약 4.3배)은 전적으로 이익 성장에 따른 것이었다. 15배 안팎에서 움직였기 때문에 극단적 고평가 구간 보유 부담은 없었다. 밸류에이션 확장 사례: 화이자는 2011~2020년 주당순이익이 약 1.45달러에서 1.55달러로 사실상 정체됐지만 PER이 약 8배에서 26배로 약 3배 확장되어 주가가 약 12달러에서 34달러로 상승했다. 저금리와 투기적 수요가 배수 확장의 주요 원인으로 제시됐으며, 예측이 이익 성장보다 어렵다고 설명했다. 복합 사례: 몬스터 비버리지는 2008~2020년 주당순이익이 약 0.30달러에서 2.23달러로 약 7.4배 늘고 PER도 약 17에서 36으로 약 2배 확장되어, 주가가 약 5달러에서 약 80달러(15~16배)로 올랐다. 경고 사례: 마이크로소프트는 1999~2015년 이익이 약 3.4배 늘었지만 PER이 66에서 15로 떨어져 주가는 1999년과 2015년 모두 약 50달러로 제자리였다. 고성장 기업이라도 지나치게 높은 배수로 사면 손실이 날 수 있다는 점을 강조했다. 결론적으로 이익 성장과 밸류에이션 확장 중 최소 하나는 유리하게, 다른 하나가 역행하지 않도록 해야 한다는 것이 핵심 메시지다. 출연자 전망에 대한 구체적 가격 예측은 없었다.
다듬은 글
hey guys tom here from the investing with in this video we're going to be talking all about multibaggers now multibaggers are a concept first presented by peter lynch and it's book one up on wall street and basically it describes when you invest in a stock and that stock returns many multiples of the amount that you put in so if you put in a thousand dollars potentially that stock can five x that would be called a five beggar uh and it goes to kind of five times the initial value that you know you put into that stock so multibaggers are great for your financial health and great for your returns and i want to present a couple of ideas today of two pretty simple but very important ideas that really drive these big multibagger returns so in order to achieve that i'm going to combine some of peter lynch's concepts from one up on wall street with chris mayer's concepts from his book 100 baggers uh we talked about stocks that return 100 to one so massive home runs in terms of stock investments now there's going to be two basic ideas that i talk about from these books and that is earnings growth and multiple expansion pretty basic ideas but i want to give you some examples of where each of those uh investment styles have worked uh when you can combine both of them and sort of supercharge your returns and also some things to be cautious of and making sure that you haven't just got one with the other kind of working against you so a few things to talk through there i do hope you enjoy and let's get into it now one quick thing to say just before we get started is i recently put together a video with brandon from the new money youtube channel talking all things berkshire hathaway i'm particularly focusing on what happens after warren buffett has gone so if you want to go and check out that video i'll leave a link to it down in the description below if you've come across from brandon's channel welcome and i hope you enjoy the content on the investing with tom youtube channel as well okay so two core concepts which drive multibaggers the first one is earnings growth um pretty straightforward the company earns more money over time and therefore demands a higher valuation in the stock market over time and the second one is earnings expansion people paying more for that company for every dollar of earnings maybe realizing it's a higher quality company or realizing it potentially has more growth opportunities ahead in other words people pay a higher p e ratio for that stock over time so let's give some examples of both and let's start with the earnings growth side of this multibagger equation so there are numerous examples of earnings growth driving stock returns frankly any business that has really large stock returns over time will have some growth built in but i want to give you the example of apple from 2011 through to 2019 because this is an example of a stock where all of the capital gains all of the returns in terms of the stock price going up was entirely driven by earnings growth so if we think back to 2011 and talk through some of the stats for apple now in 2011 apple was trading at a p e of around 14.3 they had earnings per share of about 75 cents and this is all adjusted for stock splits and everything that's kind of happened recently uh they were they were earning about 75 cents per share and the stock at the time was trading at a little under 11 dollars per share about 10.74 now what happened between that day and 2011 and then fast forwarding through to 2019 as apple experienced spectacular earnings growth particularly driven by the iphone sales now uh in terms of what happened with the stock the p e ratio stayed about the same so in 2011 the pe was about 14 in 2019 the pe was about 15.7 so minor increase but next to no change now what really drove the stock returns for apple were earnings growth so the earnings per share went from 75 cents uh in 2011 per share right through to 2.97 per share almost three dollars a share um over that sort of eight year period is what they grew to and that was right about a 4x in the earnings per share and we had you know minimal changes in the p e ratio we had a slight increase so that rough 4x in earnings resulted in about a 4.3 x in the stock with that sort of slight uh increase in earnings multiple sort of built-in that is the first thing that's going to drive multi-baggers it's a very straightforward concept and something that peter lynch and chris mayer both talk about on the book and their books are extensively it's just focusing on earnings growth and buying into companies that are growing over time now uh with apple i think it's very important to note that um with apple you were never forced to hold the stock through that 2011 to 2019 period when it was trading at some crazy high earnings multiple it was always trading in around that 15 fluctuated kind of in and around that through that eight year period but it was never up at 50 or 100 or 200 times earnings or anything crazy the returns were solely driven by earnings growth and you weren't having to sit there holding on to shares and apple when it was getting to you know speculative crazy high prices with a ridiculous pe ratio or anything like that now let's look at another example which is frankly quite the opposite this is an example of a business that had basically flat earnings over about a 10-year period but they experienced multiple expansion people started to pay a higher pe ratio for the company over time so this is something that you might experience if you're sort of a deep value style investor and you're you know trying to buy you know basically stable businesses trading at half of what they're worth and then they appreciate up to you know what they're fully worth and that sort of thing so let's give you an example of that now the company i'm going to talk about now is one that's been in the news quite a bit lately and that is pfizer so we're going to look at pfizer from 2011 through to 2020.
now back in 2011 fisa was trading at quite a low p e ratio they were trading at about eight times earnings or a little over eight times earnings now uh what happened between 2011 and 2020 is that the p e ratio of pfizer expanded a lot it roughly tripled it went from about 8.1 times earnings all the way up to 26 times earnings so what drove that multiple expansion surely they're experiencing all this massive growth and people are expecting huge things out into the future for pfizer well um basically if you look at the underlying earnings from 2011 to 2020 they went from about a dollar 45 this year in 2011 through to a dollar 55 this year in 2020 their earnings were basically flat through that entire period now granted pfizer have actually earned more than 1.55 in the last couple of years so potentially investors are banking on higher earnings over the next few years but nonetheless if you take a snapshot in 2011 and a snapshot in 2020 and just frankly look at the earnings between those two points they are basically unchanged but regardless you had a stock price that went from about 12 a share all the way to about 34 a share and you captured close to a 3x with basically no earnings growth so what actually drives multiple expansion when you're looking to you know capture one of these multibaggers well frankly it's much trickier to determine than earnings growth it's relatively simple to predict a business that you think is going to grow over time particularly if they've got a really strong brand or great product or something you know like in the apple example with something like pfizer it's much more difficult to predict this multiple expansion there are a few fundamental things that drive it uh the first one frankly is low interest rates um i'll put up a market average sort of p ratio on this screen and you'll see that over time pe ratios have been going up generally as interest rates have been going down generally over the past couple of decades or so really and the other thing frankly is speculation now um speculation is something that ideally as value investors we want to stay away from as much as possible um but it does exist and it is something that will drive these higher multiples over time particularly with something like pfizer which has been in the news a lot lately okay so there are a couple examples where we get uh earnings growth driving a multibagger and we get multiple expansion driving to multibagger but you know tom those are only three five x's where's the ten baggers where's the 15 bag as well let's talk about that and basically that is driven by combining these two if we can get both earnings growth and multiple expansion we can sort of pour fuel on the fire for getting these massive outsized returns and the example i want to use in this video is monster beverage now many of you will know monster beverage and all the energy drink products and brands and so on so basically here are some of the stats i'm going to go from 2008 the depths of the recession if you had bought monster you know back through the global financial crisis through to 2020.
let's have a look at what's happened now through that period monster experienced massive earnings growth they grew earnings per share from about 30 cents per share in 2008 right through to about two dollars and 23 cents in 2020 that um to do the maths for you at home is about a 7.4 x multiple in their earnings and if they had had kept a stable pe ratio through that period of time you would have captured about a 7.4 x on the stock as well but the interesting thing that happened with monster is their p e ratio didn't go the same it actually went up quite a bit so back in 2008 the the p ratio was about 17 if we fast throw it forward through to today it is about 36 it has approximately doubled so if you get a little over a 7x from the earnings growth and then you get a little over a double from the multiple expansion then what you end up with in terms of stock price appreciation is you get about a 15 or 16x if you kind of combine those two multiples now um that took the stock from about five dollars per share in 2008 through to about 80 dollars per share today and that is how you get the massive multibagger home run stocks as you combine both earnings growth and multiple expansion and it turns into crazy returns okay now i want to give just one word of warning before i wrap this video up because frankly i think a lot of people see these types of concepts particularly on the growth side and think that they can just invest in really high growth businesses and get good returns and that is not always the case now um in this video we've talked about two drivers of return we've talked about earnings growth and multiple expansion now what you need to have happen in order to capture these good returns is you need at least one of these things working in your favor with apple it was the earnings growth with pfizer it was the multiple expansion and with monster energy it was both now what you have to avoid at all costs and what will absolutely destroy a multibagger is one of those things working for you and one of those things working against you now let's take the example of a company with really high earnings growth and where multiple expansion actually does the opposite and those multiples contract now one of my favorite examples of this is actually microsoft now microsoft was an absolute darling of the dotcom bubble it was one of the rare businesses during that period which was actually printing money and producing a lot of cash flow and it still had huge growth prospects moving forward now the mistake that people made is although microsoft had this really good you know high growth rates uh that they managed to achieve moving forward they paid too high a multiple too high p ratio for this company so here are some of the stands for microsoft and we're going to look from 1999 through to 2015.
so in 1999 sort of peak tech bubble here uh microsoft was earning about 71 cents per share the pe ratio was 66 really high p e ratio and the stock was trading about 50 per share now if we fast forward to 2015 microsoft had gone ahead and grown their earnings really really well they had grown their earnings from 71 cents per share to 2.41 cents per share that about tripled a little over tripled their earnings about 3.4 x over that time so they've definitely take the first box just like apple they have grown their earnings substantially but the kicker here is that the p ratio has worked against us to quite a significant extent now remembering that microsoft was trading at about 66 times earnings in 1999 if we fast forward to 2015 microsoft was only trading at about 15 times earnings so here we have a situation where microsoft's earnings have gone up about three or four x the multiple placed on that business has done like reverse forex it's gone down to about a quarter or less than a quarter of what it was and basically you have these two things cancel each other out so if you look at the stock price of microsoft in 1999 of about 50 per share and then fast forward to the microsoft stock price in 2015 it is also about 50 per share so that's my word of warning and something that you definitely have to watch out for you can't just buy really high growth businesses and pay huge multiples for them if you pay say a hundred times earnings for something and you think their their earnings are going to 5x over the next decade well if their earnings 5x and they go from earnings say a dollar per share to five dollars per share but the p e ratio goes down from 100 to 20 that means that the stock price has gone nowhere over that 10-year period so it's important to try and get both these variables working in your favor if possible and that is what can produce these absolute multi-bagger returns so that is all for me today if you enjoyed the video please hit like and hit subscribe uh interestingly this video topic was actually suggested by one of you i put up a community post the other day asking for video ideas because every now and then i completely run out of them and this was a suggestion how to look for multibagger stocks so if you've got a topic that you would like to see me make a video on definitely drop it down below
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