저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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수에즈 운하 좌초 선박으로 공급망 차질이 생기고 단기 인플레 우려가 커질 수 있으나, 장기 인플레는 아니라고 봄. 3월 PCE가 예상보다 낮아 긍정적이며 CPI 발표 전까지 변동성이 있을 수 있음. 채권금리 급등이 주식시장 충격 요인이라 경계하면서도 약 6주 조정 후 W자 회복을 기대. 공격적 매수 실행 사례도 언급했으나 단기 변동성 대비 필요성을 강조.
다듬은 글
well folks the good ol might be upon us why because of a stupid cargo ship getting stuck in a canal why would i be so pissed off about it because what have w well obviously the market's going nuts this massive fear over oh no bond yields have gone up short-term increase in the bond yields means maybe inflation's coming and we should just sell everything and rotate over to recovery stocks we're just out of everything because inflation's come we all think so at least i certainly think it's a bunch of fugazi whatever that this uh inflation long-term inflation is coming i don't think it is in fact i think over the next uh inflation readings will continue to have lower and lower readings in fact guess what came in today the personal consumption expenditure is reading and it came in one one tenth of one percent lower than expected for inflation and this is the data that the fed uses we like to hear of cpi the consumer price index well this is the personnel consumption expenditures index it's kind of the same thing basically came in lower than expected month over month which is good this is kind of what we're expecting in fact the next cpi data release comes out here on it looks like april 13th at 8 30 a.m and we're looking forward to that cpi data coming in lower month over month to show like hey month over month we're not seeing inflation nothing to be worried about now we know that the cpi doesn't account for everything we know that there are a lot of hidden forms of inflation like obviously look at asset prices stocks real estate lumber there are lots of things that are going up through the moon but a lot of these things have to do with supply chain issues and guess what just got a whole lot more freaking bad folks supply chain issues why because there's a freaking ship stuck in the suez canal doing nothing because its bow is stuck 30 feet under the floor of the canal and it can't move and now they're talking about maybe this will take like 10 days to move this is a this is much more of a crisis the longer this goes on than it appears why because guess what happens it's not just that freaking ship it's all of the other ones i can't use the canal if you can't use that canal to go from the red sea to the mediterranean sea you can't get goods and supplies from india and china through the middle east and up the mediterranean into europe and then wherever on from there you can't you got to literally go around africa again i go all the way around i mean this is they see an ad somewhere around 6 000 miles to the trip and it already takes forever for these container ships to get around they're not exactly the fastest things i mean i think they drive it like 14 knots which 6 thousand miles uh adds a a lot of time uh let's just do the math really quick here you get six thousand miles divided by fourteen uh and that might even be generous that's 428 hours uh divided by 24 hours in a day you just added 18 days you just added three weeks to your commute time to some of these products that's kooky crazy because guess what's not just on this kind of ship but the other ships well food uh certainly like commodities like coffee no not like fresh stuff obviously uh but food commodities iron ore chips computer parts things that we need right now things that the world is like yo we need more of please we we want to buy more because real estate prices are so high computer you know we want more computers we want to invest let's buy stuff let's get a new gaming computer let's buy more or mine more bitcoin or ethereum or whatever right or build more cars i mean look at neo shutting down their facility for five days because they can't get their hands on enough chips and they're in semiconductorville imagine how the rest of the world feels when all of a sudden you get supply chains oh sorry add three weeks to your commute there yeah oops so what is why is this potentially really bad so my expectation here uh has been that we're gonna see lower month over month inflation data that's going to come though despite the fact that we're going to see larger substantially higher year-over-year inflation data that's because we were in a pit last in the pandemic in march so it makes sense year over year it's going to look it's going to look rough you know and i kind of wrote down over here that i wouldn't be surprised if year over year our inflation comes in around 2.4 percent for march around 3.5 to 3.3 in april and may and then we go back down those are kind of the numbers that i'm working with my projections uh they're gonna be bad you're over here but we don't really care i mean we shouldn't really care about that number some people are gonna be freaked out because the media is gonna oh my gosh i just three percent you know but but uh the big thing is gonna be that month-over-month data well guess what all this crap here with the suez canal could do it could literally jack up inflation because not only is freight going to get more expensive but everything is going to get delayed which means people who want their stuff sooner are potentially going to be willing to pay a premium for it if those prices get passed on to the consumer which they very likely will guess where they'll show up consumer price index yes we can literally see bad inflation for march because of this crap because a ship got stuck oh my gosh like what were they doing so this creates a giant cluster of problems because now you have hedges and the funds the suits going okay cool we did our rotation for the quarter great you know recorder's coming to a close this is our last friday of the quarter uh all right are we good we rotate enough now you get this problem coming up it's possible that hedges and suits could get even more defensive and try to get out of higher multiple stocks even more monday tuesday wednesday of next week now i hope not you know i'm looking for good catalysts here the problem is all we have right now is a bad catalyst and that catalyst literally screams i'm causing inflation like every time you see a picture of that ship on a newspaper just think inflation now that's the that's bad obviously right that's bad there's no good news about that now is that not going to ask you okay is that long-term inflation or is it short-term inflation we talk about this all the time on the channel obviously it's short-term right supply chain constraints are short-term issues in the stock market which means you have to bear through the house of pain that much longer which means if you need basically what's now a mental health support group for your stocks and the psychology of money make sure you take advantage of that 38 off coupon code expiring today so you too can get support but anyway obviously every single day we have a live stream where we talk and it's not just a support group but the point here is folks that ship could very likely unless this gets broken free this weekend could very likely cause a spike in inflation on a month-to-month basis that could potentially lead the bond market to freak out again sell off on the bonds sends yields up yields go up if they go up too quickly then the stock market's like whoa that was too quick of a jolt you know the acceleration of rates going up i made an analogy earlier on the live stream it's kind of like imagine you're driving a car you're going 65 miles an hour uh you know if somebody slowly steps on the gas a little bit and you get from 65 miles an hour to 80 miles an hour and you're in the back seat you don't really notice you don't notice the creep of bond yields potentially right but if you're at 65 miles an hour and somebody's in a p 100 model x and they floor it and you zip up to 90 or even 80 but you just do so very quickly you notice because you're like whoa yeah the same thing that has happened could potentially continue with this kind of news like i was literally hoping for hey that's fine we got no news it's fine things will settle down people get over this whole bond yield started going up big deal it was bound to happen anyway it's something you could have easily seen coming not a big deal but it came a little too fast and it's been pretty volatile and now we got a ship stuck in the str you can't make this stuff up you can't make this stuff up so what what are we thinking what's the bottom line well the bottom line is you got to be prepared this is even though as fun it is to buy the dip and as fun as it is for me to go yay we just put 500k into a big buy the dip stock uh that uh that i'm excited about i have high conviction in uh maybe we'll do it again i don't know we'll see we also at the same time gotta be a little careful because and i know this this kind of sounds like contradictory it's like how could you be careful if you just invested this and gave everybody your high conviction report in the course link down below like how does that make sense well i might have pretty high conviction that we are not going to see long-run inflation and that we are going to w-shape recovery out of this but i also could not have predicted a stupid ship getting stuck in a canal causing potentially inflation fears to ramp up i think all of this will clear i really believe that once we get out of this crappy march month we get out of quarterly rebalancing we finally realize that no worries like things can be okay as bonds recover all is going to be okay that's one of the reasons i keep investing i'm not panic selling i have not sold anything since february 16th and trust me everybody who's buying the dip gets that feeling of like oh it's just just keeps dipping oh it's like i'm putting money in the fire pit it just just keeps going yeah i don't know i hear you stay strong and stay true to what you believe will matter 10 years from now ask yourself how old are you now whatever how old you are right now add 30 years to it do you think we're gonna look back and go oh i remember all that hyperinflation we saw in 2021 no no it's all gonna be fine problem is right now it doesn't feel fine because the weenie babies are all rotating out of stuff that matters but not only are the weenie babies rotating out of stuff because they can't handle it but they're also exacerbating the problem setting stop losses trying to sell at the bottom these are a bunch of paper-hander bears it's bad bad true hodlers make money through these times this is when the money is made when there's pain what do people always say be fearful when people are greedy and be greedy when people are fearful what do you think people are right now they're fearful okay so deduce and remember very very very important when prices go down you are de-risking you're taking risk out of the balloons so to speak you know a really inflated balloon is very fragile very likely to whereas a balloon that's only like like if you had a normal balloon that was like this and the balloons kind of like this it's like really soft and spongy and you can kind of like boom you know hit your face on it or whatever punch it if you want it holds up a little more that's not going to say we're not going to see further declines because this stupid ship thing here if it weren't for this ship i'd be a lot more optimistic but you know i i want to believe that our w is going to occur we're going to see a recovery over the next few weeks usually these corrections last about six weeks we just finished like uh this is week five we just finished week five so potentially we could see some more volatility next week especially because of the ship on top of that but uh buckle up stay strong and folks we're gonna get to the other end of this all right one
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