저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2021년 3월 하락장 속에서 Kevin이 자신의 포트폴리오와 마진(대출) 현황을 공개. 총자산 약 2,050만 달러, 마진 비율은 약 25%로 줄일 계획이며, 현금·부동산 담보 신용대출 등으로 마진콜 대비 플랜을 설명. 마진은 연수입 6개월치 또는 자산의 20% 중 낮은 쪽으로 제한해야 한다고 강조. 비트코인·M1 파이 순으로 매도 우선순위를 제시하며, 자신은 매도 계획이 없다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
oh man this is just the stock market disaster that keeps going and going and i say that and quite frankly it's been about a week and five days since february 19th which means we're really only like four and a half weeks into this crap and sometimes these can tend to last around six weeks now i was hoping a couple weeks ago that we were over but it looks more like now instead of a v-shaped recovery we might be in the midst of a w and heading towards a double dip sort of crash now i personally do not believe the right side of the w aka the right side of the w that we're in right now will be as bad as the left side because peak fear regarding all this madness about bond yields and the fed and all this is not really here anymore but we're still seeing sell-off so we're definitely in that w for now and hopefully it ends up looking like a w which basically means we've got a nice v-shaped recovery ahead of us but i'm not larry kudlow and instead of talking about v's like larry does all day long let's instead do a portfolio reveal because well it's not gonna be a full portfolio reveal it's more of a margin reveal and portfolio balance reveal but uh anyway the reason for a portfolio balance reveal is actually thanks to you because if i type in portfolio reveal on youtube we get do a portfolio reveal we've done this before this is correct i've done this before so we don't have to do this i mean you've seen many i mean pretty much every week i've been updating what my trades were and then of course in the course i update every single moment i make a trade but anyway do a portfolio reveal now i like that question perfect you got it here we go let's give this a heart and then we want a portfolio reveal got it lots of this then we've got this is a good one look at this adventures on a honda everyone always does portfolio reveals when they're green when they're all green do one now edit on his live stream happening right now he said he has two percent of his portfolio in shift then said which is a lot 400k so by my math his portfolio is around 20 million dollars okay well uh what i'm going to do is i'm going to show you uh the balances in my accounts right now and i am going to remove because i personally have not looked at this number yet and i don't even want to add it up for today because i this is part of this part of what i teach like people are like okay kevin yes stocks and psychology and money well when you actually go through the course that i have on stocks and psychology money efforts you're like oh damn that that did change my mindset a little bit or maybe even a lot a lot of people say a lot but but anyway i love you all i hope you all uh at least give it a shot but anyway in this i say i don't like looking at my portfolio value i don't want to know how much it's fluctuated per day i don't know what it was yesterday so i can't even try to self-compute so i kind of blindly scribbled to reveal any kind of things that would indicate how much the portfolio has gone down and it's mostly because my goal is just to show you the portfolio for oh my gosh portfolio value you could sort of impute how much it may have gone down but i don't encourage you to do that i don't encourage you to do that when it's going up either it's really bad for your psychology so anyway uh this is my robin hood we've got uh 2.2 million dollars in market value and a robin hood with about 459 in margin and i'll go ahead and add up what what all these accounts add up to i've got a new spreadsheet and it's my margin update because it's always good to know what your margin is like so anyway we got a 2.2 minus about that 459k of leverage uh and again i'll add these up for us then we've got this is the net account value over at weibull which remember you can sign up and get two free stocks with weeble if you go to medkevin.com weeble but anyway a market value of 4.8 with a margin of about 1.3 million dollars so that gets you that net account value of about 3.5 million dollars then uh over here we've got uh m1 finance which shows you there's uh two uh to about two million dollars now uh there's no margin on this and that's because i took well all of the margin that i have at m1 finance is actually that cash balance you see at the bottom i just leave that there as kind of like a little emergency tool but that is literally how much margin i owe so 706 the 706 cash like just ignore that number is even there so two mil over here with zero in margin and this is my chase this is just what i when i log in what i see on chase and so uh the investment account is at 11.9 million dollars we do have margin on this and we do have a cash balance of roughly two million dollars a little 18k in credit cards uh and uh 6.6 in a credit line that is drawn at chase so when you add all of this together you get to i'm going to pull put this on screen here so it makes the math easy for you so that way you don't have to do it oh there we go and perfect on screen now so here you go we've got robinhood these are all the same numbers that you saw and if you add it together you get to a total portfolio value right now of 20.5 mil this this was a lot higher at one point but i don't even actually remember how much it was because i wasn't actively updating my margin too terribly much i try not to look at my portfolio uh value i think it's toxic i think it it motivates you to get too stressed out and then you start selling or when things are green you get euphoric and it's like oh my gosh things are going up or whatever i gotta buy i gotta buy buy buy it's very dangerous so anyway then you add up the margin over here and the way you figure out what your margin percentage is is you divide uh the debt by your total portfolio of in this case 20 mil so that actually puts me at 40.8 uh percent in margin right now but that's not my actual margin balance because i've got cash and i've got cash that's transferring to my jpmorgan from a different account right now so i have 1.9 in cash a plus 1.25 coming from a different account this means when i add up these figures here i've got about 3.2 that i'm going to be using to plummet down this margin right away and when i do my margin will actually go to just 25 outstanding but on top of that if i needed to i have about 350 available in credit lines from real estate which that's one of the beautiful things about having real estate is i get access to certain credit lines from having real estate and the 350k will be coming from real estate if i needed it so if i needed to well if i don't do anything other than use the cash from about 25 margin and this is why it's always good to have backup strategies and you should run these strategies as well like okay what cash do i have and what could i liquidate if i need it to in a margin situation well first thing i would do again use the cash to pay down then we can draw on credit lines that would be the 350k from real estate i could draw from i could also try to rebalance some of the money from m1 finance if i needed to in the event i had i got closer to margin somewhere else first right so i have a little bit of play there then the next thing that i could do is i assumed a 25 drop so a quarter percent drop on my entire m1 finance portfolio which is a lot because it's the stocks are you know pretty tech centric but if i just shut down my m1 finance with the 25 loss i would have another 1.5 available oops uh there we go i have another 1.5 available to use towards payoff that would bring me to about 16.2 margin and it would allow me to protect my really concentrated positions because most of the positions in my m1 finance are diversified in my pies and i want to protect my really concentrated positions then the next thing that i could do if i needed to continue to sort of bail out of margin is uh i would actually probably do this first i'd probably close my bitcoin holdings and so i'm going to assume about a 50 decline in value and so let's go ahead and put 500k in here one two three there we go so uh with with just bitcoin not closing out m1 finance i'd be about negative or be about a margin of 21 if i close out the m1 finance assuming these declines i'd be about negative 13 uh if i then still need it to pay off margin my first ones that would be going would be unfortunately my lovely apples googles and amazons and that's because i consider them to be a little bit more cash parky and i'm gonna assume declines here as well so i'm going to go with 1250 and this would assume like another 20 to 30 decline of these values one two three equals uh and so that would bring me down to about 7.6 margin so not totally eradicated but there's a very clear path for me if i needed to to basically protect myself from a margin call and the biggest thing is obviously cash and so one of the things that i generally recommend and where some of this cash came from is sell when you're green now it's too late for a lot of us to sell when it's green because we're not green right but i sold march 9th and march 16th and i told all my course members like hey folks i'm getting too high on margin i've got to follow my rules i need to get under 20 margin so i sold off my holdings until i got to about 19 margin now there was unfortunately this little private deal that came up and i ended up taking some money back out on margin and then we kind of walked into this uh but that's that's an unrelated thing because that's going to be very profitable i'm excited about that anywho and we'll talk about that in the future video anywho the point is when it's green that's the time to try to reduce margin ideally under 20 and if you want to be really really comfortable get to zero and then just put all of the rest of your money in the market when you're at zero you don't even have to worry about doing these sorts of numbers right then having a credit line or equity in real estate because even though the real estate market can crash at the same time as stocks when you have credit lines as long as they don't get frozen you could draw on those and you saw how on m1 finance i drew that cache to have it sitting available yeah that's because when i have it sitting available it's harder for them to not let me take it out anymore you could do the same thing with real estate lines of credit if you needed to of course having equity in real estate is also a really good idea because then if you needed to you could always refinance or sell your real estate so this is one of the reasons i hate refinancing real estate when the market's skyrocketing and i prefer to let that grow as meat on the bone and that way if the market ever crashes i could refinance at that point have equity and use that cash to go shopping at the bottom of the market in the event there's ever a real estate crash or another stock crash so generally as the market's booming you really want to be thinking about get out of debt get out of debt get out of debt especially margin debt right then i'm basically going through my lowest can after those so like after cash brings me to 25 uh after if i needed to the credit line brings me down a little bit further going back to the chart here i'd be about 23 margin if i use my credit line and the cash that i have to pay down margin which is good that's no selling no selling and i'm at 23 margin only after that point if i needed to not because you know i want paper hand or whatever but because i got backed into a corner then i would liquidate in this order bitcoin sorry bitcoin goes then m1 finance just simply because i'd probably start with uh metkevin.com 1337.
the reason for that is that's a pie of like 59 stocks that i really really like but there's so little in each one of those at m1 finance that it's it's very diversified and to me i'd rather sell that and be able to preserve my top top picks then i'd probably sell 38 then probably the biden pie which is also pretty diversified and i'll try to keep 13.39 which again you could see these just go to metcalfer.com1337 slash 1338 1339 or slash biden and you'll see those but i'll sell the most diversified things first well actually first bitcoin then the most diversified things and then only at that point would i actually if i really needed to i mean things would have to be really really really really really bad uh would would i just dump apple google and amazon uh and obviously i would want to try to be a little bit predictive here uh and see i mean i never want to try to like time the market and try to determine how much the market's going to fall uh but i do that you know even though that's not the best thing to do it's what i do i personally do not think i'm going to have to sell a single thing here because again i'm just taking my cash and just properly allocating in like wiring dryer transferring finishing my wires which i've got like 200k wires scheduled every day so it's going to take like 10 or 15 days or whatever to get it all done unless i get on the phone and do it manually but i want to get on the phone and this is fine for me too because there's no rush like it's not that bad there's no rush so anyway the point is i've got a plan and i want to stress to you that if you're ever in a situation where you're using margin you've got to ask yourself what's your plan what's your back-up plan what's your income like here's another rule of thumb i like to use do not exceed six months of your income and margin or twenty percent whichever is lower so for example if you make six thousand dollars a month don't exceed thirty six thousand dollars worth of margin which would mean your account value thirty six represents twenty would be somewhere around a hundred eighty thousand 000 in stock so let's say you got 180 000 in stocks you get paid 60 000 a year or rather 72 000 a year six thousand dollars per month i wouldn't want to exceed 36k uh ever so even if my account value went up to like four or 500 i would wanna be able to make sure i could get that margin down in six months because that way if the market starts trending down first of all you're not past twenty percent but every week you get paid you could take a little bit and start using that to lower your margin and try to escape that falling of stock prices now sometimes stocks fall really fast and it's really good to have a plan for okay what's going to go first so that way in the event there's some crazy like flash crash or something like that and you get that phone call you already have a plan you're not panicking and that's the big lesson here is you never want to be in a situation where you're like oh crap i'm panicking sell everything and then you end up selling some of your highest conviction stocks because they've sold off the most and then when the rebound happens you get a small rebound but not the big rebound on your high conviction stocks that you usually see when the rebound comes so those are some lessons that i'd be thinking of right now some thoughts that i'd be processing so if you've got margin ask yourself okay what would i do if if you don't have margin just keep buying this dip if you're less than 20 margin less than six months outstanding on margin you know i don't want to tell you to go into margin because i don't know your situation so i never advocate anybody going to margin but i would just say if you make the personal decision to go on a margin stay within those guidelines as much as you can do whatever you can to always follow those guidelines very very very very important uh and when i get down to which i'll be at soon if i get rid of the credit line here i'll be at 25 margin i will see i mean stocks could continue to fall right uh but anyway then i'll be at about five uh million dollars outstanding uh so i gotta get that down to twenty percent to follow the rules right i gotta follow both rules the income rule and uh and the margin rule so we wanna make sure we get this down so both rules are followed the big thing right now is getting under that 20 figure sometimes that's a little hard though when the market's falling because like every day the market falls it's kind of like you're literally just taking cash and throwing it into a fire pit but remember we still own the shares right the big thing is preserving as much of the shares we have as possible because pain is temporary it hurts but it's temporary so stay strong dab and hand this good luck
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