저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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로빈후드 IPO 예정 소식을 다루며, 웹사이트 트래픽 지표상 로빈후드가 경쟁사 대비 성장세가 강하다고 분석. 다만 2021년 1월 무료주식 프로모션 효과가 섞여 있어 해석에 주의가 필요하다고 함. 사설 거래 데이터(주당 60달러, 기업가치 약 613억 달러)와 페이팔·스트라이프·스퀘어 등 비교를 근거로 IPO 기업가치가 800억~1000억 달러 이상일 수 있다고 추정. 수익성 자료가 없어 실제 가치는 불확실하다고 언급.
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quick reminder to get 38 off with the private live streams and chat where we get to talk together check those out down below the coupon code does expire on friday and the price will be going up well the cat's out of the bag robin hood has a secretly filed for ipo now the big question is do we even care there is a lot of negativity regarding robin hood surrounding the events that unfolded on january 28th which also happened to be my birthday no relation obviously the gamestop crisis stopping uh people from being able to buy gamestop stock and options around january 28th led to a temporary exodus of people from robin hood now we don't know if there was a net exodus that is more people leaving than coming in but these things are going to be very important when it comes to deciding do we actually buy robinhood when the ipo comes and how the heck do we even value this company we hear rumors that this be this used to be valued at 12 billion dollars but maybe it's going to be coming out at 40 60 80 billion dollars how much could robin hood possibly be worth well this is sort of a first reaction video on my thoughts in terms of how i would value robin hood but first i want to set a quick bit of groundwork my hypothesis for robinhood my belief and this is an unpopular belief i am saying this as an investor so take it for what it's worth as an investor when i think of robinhood i think they have nailed options trading and they are the platform that has figured out how to do the cheapest and easiest options trading maybe not necessarily the cheapest i shouldn't say that but certainly the most simple options trading they've got that down when it comes to buying bitcoin they hands down out of all of the tests that i've done and have done a few more that i haven't published on the channel but you could just take a look at cheapest way to buy bitcoin on or meet kevin on youtube and you'll see a video i made comparing at least block fi uh robin hood and another one and i've done some of those tests similarly with other companies i plan to eventually release a video on that but anyway spoiler alert every single time robin hood is the cheapest now the problem with robin hood is uh you don't actually have ownership there's no crypto wallet right we don't need like this video is not to try to encourage you to buy in robinhood if you want more on that watch the other video and you'll understand my conclusion should you buy on robinhood or not the conclusions in the other video but anyway the point here is robin hood has made a lot of things very easy for people and there are a lot of people that don't invest in gamestop and there are a lot of people who say i would have never bought robin hood anyway there are a lot of people who use the robinhood debit card which i don't know if that's ever going to focus probably not but uh eventually oh wait you can always focus on something by just putting it right next to your face see i've never used this once but anyway there are a lot of people who have their options in their stocks they auto deposit money in or when they get money they pause it in they spend it on stocks and they're out of there they may not even know what happened with gamestop which sounds crazy it's really concentrated though on youtube and wall street bets so now what i want to try to figure out which is very difficult to do is what percentage of people who are robin hood members are actually also on youtube and wall street bets is it percent kind of like how we might feel or is it more realistic that maybe five or ten percent of people who are robin hood users are actually involved in the gamestop drama and how many poor people signed up for robin hood during all of this drama see the other thing that's crazy and i learned this really early on in marketing when i did my first tv commercial it was a tv commercial that i spent forty thousand dollars on producing and another fifty thousand dollars on actually distributing and that was when my income was like 60 000 a year like that was 2013 and in 2012 i made 60ish k a year i think i net like 49 or 51 something like that so the point is i spent a lot of money on this tv commercial when i published it the world of warcraft community thought i was making fun of world of warcraft players they didn't know that i was a warcraft player myself and i was just making a contrast between real estate agents anyway i got a lot of hate on that video in the world of warcraft community people thought i was making fun of people in world of warcraft crazy thing though is that virality actually led people to call me interested about real estate and so there is something in the media business known as no press's bad press and that sometimes when you have bad press you can actually end up with net more customers than when you only have good press it's kind of like would you rather have a really viral video that 50 percent of people hate but fifty percent of people love but it gets 10 million views or and and you gain let's say 5 million subscribers like that right or 5 million loyalists you're like oh my gosh this is the best thing ever because even if you've got 10 million views you're probably not going gonna get five mil subs right away but anyway would you rather have that or rather make a video that everybody loves but a thousand people watch it and maybe all of them subscribe right so there is that no press's bad press reality when it comes to media and i know this sounds crazy but we're going to actually look at some data here but i believe it's very possible because especially since robin hood was doing a promotion during this controversy it's very possible that robin hood came out of this controversy even better and stronger than before the controversy because at the time of the controversy robin hood said they were going to consider delaying their ipo now there it seems like they're back on track if anything they might even be trying to expedite this because they had such a good quarter one speculation right but let's take a look at some data in order to take a look at some data it's really useful to think well what kind of data should we look at in my opinion the first type of data we should look at is website traffic data relative to competitors uh and so i like doing that uh and then we can also look at some search trends so let's go ahead and pull some things up so the first data set i'd like to look at is robinhood.com website metrics and what's fascinating here is the fastest rate of growth that robinhood has ever had at least within the last three years has occurred right here around the january 28th crisis now you have to know what's happening at robinhood robinhood had a promotion which they've never had before where you would get four free stocks with robinhood if you signed up between january 23rd and february 1st that promotion is now over but that is also right overlapping the period of time they had a massive controversy so literally they have a massive controversy the company goes into peak media mode and people are like oh wow they're also giving out free for free socks and so many people use it if people are like hey i wouldn't have bought gamestop anyway they might end up signing up for robin hood and quite frankly the growth even though it's not as rapid that slope that slope of the line there is not as rapid anymore over here it's flattening a little bit it's not plummeting like their website traffic is doing very very well let's compare them now let's compare them to robinhood weevil public and so fi now this is a little bit of an asterisk because not all of these websites let you trade on the actual website so it's difficult to say we can immediately compare uh robinhood.com to some of the other brokerages because not and i'm not familiar as much yet with public and sofa i know they've got apps but i don't know what you can do on the website so it's it's worth noting that we shouldn't say that robin hood's better because people spend 14 minutes on the website but only two minutes on let's say public because they could be on the app right what we do want to look at though is an increase uh the green numbers here which even though they do this stupid little green arrow because it's green even though it's pointing down this is an increase so on average over the last three months compared to the prior three months robin hood users spent an additional one percent of time on the website so we didn't really get much of a change over time there comparing uh weeble we don't have a metric for but comparing public to itself we got a 30 increase in the amount of time spent on the public website which is very good and at so far we had a 65 increase on time spent on website which is very very good now if sofa lets you do trading on their website it's still half of what robin hood says now i'm not going to go into the other brokerages because this is really just a first impression video here on my thoughts for robin hood now remember robin hood's growth here on the chart and take a look here at weeble notice that they had growth around this period as well but nowhere near the scale that robin hood had and it's actually slightly turned negative at the end there whereas uh and and this could be you know promotion based whereas robin hood though still pointing up let's look at another one here public.com went up substantially right here you got a nice inflection point but look at that flattening and slightly turning down there at the end and then so far so far is doing well a nice increase here also a tiny little bit of flattening but not not pointing down yet so these are important things to consider is how are these websites ranking amongst each other now obviously it's helpful to put all of these on the same chart just so we can compare them all together i like starting with them individually though because when you put them all on the same chart it can get a little bit messy a little bit fast so anyway here's that chart robin hood is the green weeble is the yellow line right here uh public is down here and so far is here you can see that sofa has actually had the slowest growth in this space out of all of them they've kind of been floating around the space for a while here recently yeah they had a bump but they're not growing anywhere near at the rate that like a public is growing public this is very very nice growth basically from non-existence to competing good that's good but still weeble and public doing a little bit of that curvature down robin hood still dominating with curvature pointing up and a weeble i'm sorry and so fi somewhat flat here on this particular chart it's interesting this is good information to take a look at uh these are all website analytics now uh another thing is we've obviously had a lot of negative attention regarding people wanting to brokerage transfer out of robin hood totally makes sense uh it's useful to note i'll just keep myself hidden for a moment here it's useful to note that the google trends data obviously had a spike right around the time of the crisis but uh a lot of this has not lasted you know people have kind of stopped searching for this almost entirely transfer now this one this is not something i would ordinarily search for because like this is what i search for transfer out of robin hood because that's what i would write but google actually recommended this as a breakout search term how do i cash out on robinhood uh and so i thought okay i'll click on that too and see that well that has pretty much disappeared as well uh and then if we look at robinhood versus versus public and robinhood versus weeble assuming that people might want to comparison shop we can see weevil has a very very big competition against robin hood for comp you know comparing people comparing the two public not so much so far i didn't even rank on this it was like a flat line uh but uh clearly you could see the interest in even comparison shopping right now is declining and look i'm not here to try to shill robin hood i just i'm honestly surprised like i thought i would see user growth decline uh which we don't actually have user growth yet currently the current numbers but i certainly thought we would see website traffic data decline and that we would see uh search data continue to stay stable of people wanting to complete their transfers out of robinhood uh now we'll see we'll see once we get more disclosures from robinhood because see this to me is a little bit misleading when we get this is from cnbc this is a little bit misleading in my opinion because this here says robinhood leads in app downloads amid gamestop frenzy but this is actually in my opinion very misleading because there should be a footnote that says robin hood ran a get for free stocks promotion during this time and before the time they started the promotion before this time coincidentally at the same time and they had never done that before so like what would this line of actually look like if there was no promotion honestly i mean sure they had peak media but would it have been like here you know would it have been negative i don't think it would have been negative because i believe the whole no press is bad press thing but i don't think it would have been this mad uh if it weren't you know we probably somewhere around here is my guess my guess so this right here is probably from promotion this right here would have just been normal people interested in signing up for stocks because they just saw a bunch of people get rich off gamestop and then get broke off gamestop so this is this is not an endorsement to buy or sell gamestop okay anyway focusing on robinhood how do we now value this company so now we've got a little bit more background right we we realized that okay i mean robinhood's traffic data is still good it's true maybe we are overexposed to this echo chamber that can sometimes be youtube that maybe we think uh people hate robin hood more than than they do because because maybe a lot of people in youtube and on the reddit community do and that totally is understandable and again we still don't really know what happened on jan 28 but i get it but the rest of the world is not here right now the wall street journal here mentions that robin hood had an internal valuation in august of 12 billion dollars but they recently raised 3.4 billion dollars like this while the gamestop crisis was going on i doubt they were able to raise 3.4 billion dollars without that valuation skyrocketing my guess and based on estimates we're seeing online based on new york times reports uh and also cnbc or wall street journal it seems like a lot of folks are pointing to somewhere around a potential valuation of 40 billion dollars for robin hood but it could potentially even be more than that see the valuation of robin hood might be 40 billion dollars internally but when this goes to public markets and robinhood shows how much profit they make which we don't know how much the profit they make yet we don't even know if they make money we don't know how profitable they are yet these financials are all sealed we don't have them private companies so we don't know but anyway when those numbers actually come out if they're impressive i think 40 bills going to be a joke and i actually don't think that robin hood is going to value their company for 40 billion when they go to ipo why do i say that well because i got my hands on which i can't show on screen but i got my hands on some private equity data somebody who bought shares inside of robinhood uh yeah off you know off-market sort of pre-market and uh the share price was 60 dollars per share and the implied valuation was sixty one point three billion dollars so that means somebody about robinhood shares at sixty dollars a share with a valuation of sixty one point three billion dollars which is really really high it sounds really really high right but what if i told you this what if i told you that those shares sold in the pre-pre-market in other words somebody was able to buy these shares in the pre-market before other people in sort of the private market i shouldn't say pre-market private market were able to have access to them and that when this was opened up to the actual private market there was a bidding war for these shares and there was like i think it was like a 20 million dollar wait list on this platform for people to try to get shares uh this is just information that i'd gotten i don't want to mention you know platforms or or people or anything involved uh right now but the point is i think there was somewhere around like five million dollars of shares available to be bought privately and they had a backup of like 10 to 20 million shares or whatever in over bid for those shares to try to get their hands on those shares so the appetite to get the people's hands or for people to get their hands on these robin hood chairs is like really really really really freaking high i don't think robin hood's going to want to leave that money on the table certainly not all of it now they're not going to price at a premium because they want a big opening day but i would not be shocked to see robinhood come out with an 80 billion dollar ipo valuation and then on ipo day robin hood potentially extend to over 100 billion dollars now why would i say that that sounds crazy right yes i know it's going to come down to profitability and comps here's the thing paypal has 361 million users they're worth about uh 200 this is actually a billion i'm sorry billions uh their current market cap is 278 billion stripe which is a private company with two million users which these are different users so we shouldn't really be comparing users but stripe has a valuation of 95 billion in the private market kind of like i was describing this 60 billion 61 billion ish dollar valuation for robin hood that same thing for stripe is 95 billion dollars and to make that clear that's that was a 61.3 billion implied valuation yeah share price 60.
okay anyway then square slash cash app we have 97.9 billion dollars so you have to ask yourself could robinhood be as big as cash app and square now cash app and square have 30 million users this is recent numbers or recent numbers here we don't know how many users robin hood has right now we just know that in 2019 robin hood had 10 million users but folks kovid i would not be surprised if covid has 3x this uh for robinhood and if robinhood is at 30 million active users even after the crisis of january it would not shock me for robinhood to have a valuation somewhere around what squares is now square has a lot of things going they've got business integrations the credit cards business which is somewhat hurt by uh the pandemic maybe that'll be a good reopening play and when i say credit card business i mean the credit card processing business the merchant operating business the omni channel where businesses can combine their business inventories with online inventories their uh bitcoin ownership services which robinhood uses as well square actually owns a bitcoin which i don't think robinhood does because i'm pretty sure they're just using an index uh or like a fund to track the price of uh of bitcoin but anyway the point is they have differences but they also have a lot of similarities square cash app they're coming out with a debit card they just got a banking license wouldn't shock me to see robinhood come out with a credit card soon as well we know they already have a high yield savings well it used to be high yield savings not anymore and a credit card or sorry a debit card is what they have right now so it wouldn't surprise me to see 60 bill be low based on these other valuations because quite frankly when stripe goes public would not shock me at all to see stripe be a 150 billion dollar company just would not shock me at all and square well i mean the stock has been absolutely hammered over the last uh you know a few weeks here in sort of this tech sell-off but if we gave some of this tech sell-off valuation back to see how frothy things got uh you probably want to add like 30 to this which means square could be like 130 billion dollar company all of a sudden it doesn't sound so unreasonable for robin hood to maybe be at 100 right and it depends it's totally going to depend on what the market does at the time as well now td ameritrade has 11 million users the growth is pretty slow and they're at about a 21.6 billion dollar market cap on the canadian exchanges uh robinhood again latest sort of private rounds were over subscribed at 60 bill uh and those are private sort of secondaries like robin hood wasn't selling those shares this would be like an employee of robin hood going yo i want to sell some shares who wants to buy them and then a ton of people going uh and then eturo is a spec and they're going public uh through a spec i i'll look up what the the name of this back was it's like ft some fctv or something like that spec anyway i'll i'll figure it out uh etoro so anyway they they're a very interesting platform and they got 20 million users uh kind of exciting but i don't they're more of like a european international company they're not so heavily used in the united states so that could weigh on its valuation in america certainly by american speculators or investors whatever we want to say but then again in fairness backs have been selling off like crazy i found it the correct ticker symbol is uh ft cv so foxtrot tango charlie victor ftcv is etoro 80 cents it's a spack and spax have absolutely gotten destroyed destroyed uh in this latest sort of spec crash that we're seeing so this gives you some perspective on robin hood now this article actually did not have much exciting in here i kind of just talked a little bit about gamestop talked about that 12 billion valuation not too much useful in this one but uh definitely made me think about sharing some of my thoughts on the robinhood ipo with you now stay tuned i plan to release a video on the lawsuits that robin hood is dealing with from this whole gamestop crisis so stay tuned for that let me know if you're interested in that i want to dig through the lawsuits and see what people's claims are how they're going and so on thanks so much for watching folks we'll see the next one you
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