저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가는 최근 실적 기대 상회로 급등했으나 선행 PER이 약 71배로 대형 기술주 및 자동차 경쟁사 대비 과도하게 높다고 평가. 2025년 EPS 추정치는 90일 전 대비 약 10% 하락했고 생산·인도량은 두 분기 연속 전년 대비 감소. 선행 PER이 약 60배로 하락할 것으로 보고 연말 주가를 200~225달러로 전망(현재 248달러 대비 하락).
다듬은 글
Tesla's stock price has been on a wild ride over the last few weeks after the company reported quarterly production and delivery numbers that beat Wall Street estimates Tesla's stock price is absolutely soaring but where could the stock price end the year at the end of 2024 that's the question I'm going to answer in this video so let's jump right into it so one of the estimates I'm going to use to make Tesla's stock price prediction for 2024 is its forward price to earnings ratio as you can see right now Tesla's stock is trading at a forward PE of a whopping 7063 and that's on the back of the recent stock price increase as its earnings per share expectations haven't really improved but what has improved is the multiple Tesla stock price was already expensive coming into July but now it's reached a whole new level jumping from a forward price to earnings around 50 to now trading at a forward price to earnings of over 70 that's more expensive than most of its large cap Tech stock peers and more than 10 times more expensive than its car company peers so whether you think of Tesla as a car company or a tech company it's more expensive than all those companies combined so you can get a company like Nvidia stock at half the valuation you can get Tesla stock or alphabet stock at onethird the valuation you can get Tesla stock and if you're looking at car companies like Ford GM those are tra trading at roughly on10th the valuation of Tesla stock so Tesla's valuation has soared and I'm going to forecast that this forward PE multiple declines for the rest of the year as I highlighted Tesla stock price has soared it's now trading at $248 per share way above my previous price prediction forecast and it soared mostly in the last month here as it jumped from a little over $160 per share back up to $248 per share right about where it started this year so it started this year at around current levels and it dropped all the way close to $130 and now it's jumped back up to $250 per share in quick fashion so one of the other items I'm going to need to make thi for 2025 the analyst on Wall Street that are following Tesla stock they think it's going to deliver $335 in EPS in 2025 that's up from $3.16 7 days ago but down from $337 30 days ago and down from $3.74 90 days ago so despite its earnings per share expectations falling from 90 days ago by roughly 10% its valuation the stock price has jumped significantly in that time so this is a situation where a stock price is increasing despite the fact that its profitability forecast has not improved the company doesn't expect to be more profitable after these latest quarterly production and delivery numbers came out the numbers were still signaling that Tesla's production and delivery was down year-over-year so that's two straight quarters where its production and delivery were down year-over-year and given the rising competition it wouldn't surprise me if Tesla's deliveries and production are down for the rest of this year as well so the stock price increase is just based on momentum just based on enthusias M and even the potential announcement for its driverless car its Robo taxi that was even delayed by several months and it might be delayed even further into the future so I highlighted Tesla has surpassed my previous stock price prediction as you can see here my previous forecast had Tesla stock price ending the year between $165 per share and $185 per share and that was based on its multiple of a forward PE of 48.6 six at the time as you'll notice the earnings per share expectations of $3.33 from the previous video have only Changed by 2 cents so it's only up from $3.33 to $335 but what's changed as you'll notice here is the forward PE multiple which is now at 71 and the stock price has increased as a result so if the forward PE ratio stays the same and the earnings per share expectations stay the same same the stock price could end the year at $237 per share which would be below where it's at today at $248 per share and in fact I am predicting that Tesla's stock price will end the year lower than where it is today I expect the stock price to decrease if the forward PE was to decrease to 60 then the stock price will fall to $21 per share if the forward PE Falls to 40 then the stock price could fall to1 $34 per share if the forward PE were to fall to 30 which is where its large cap Tech stock peers are trading at if you look at Nvidia Microsoft Apple alphabet meta platforms they're all trading at roughly a forward price to earnings of 30 or a little bit above or a little bit below Tesla is more than twice that valuation so even if you consider Tesla a tech stock and not a car company which I would argue against still even if you consider it completely a tech company it's still more than twice as expensive as its large cap Tech stock peers so in my opinion Tesla is overvalued and I'm forecasting its forward PE multiple will come down for the rest of this year so where do I think the stock price ends up well I think it ends in a forward PE ratio of around 60 and a stock price of around 200 to 225 $5 per share so while the stock price forecast is higher than my previous forecast of 165 to 185 I still expect Tesla's stock price to fall from its current price of $248 per share as a result of its expensive valuation a difficult comparison with the previous year given that its production and delivery numbers are falling and I expect little evidence on its progress on Robo taxi and little evidence in revenue and profit and cash flow from anything other than selling cars and the energy business which is doing really really well to offset some of the declines in the car business but the energy business relative to the overall business is still small in scale so for all those reasons I think Tesla stock price Falls to between 200 and $225 per share by the end of this year but don't forget to take advantage of those free 15 stocks or up to 15 free stocks if you use 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