Should You Buy Taiwan Semiconductor Stock Before July 18? | TSM Stock Analysis

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TSMC 7/18 실적 발표를 앞두고 매출 가이던스(196~204억 달러)와 영업이익률 40~42%를 점검. AI 수요로 매출 성장·수익성이 개선됐다고 평가하나 주가가 연초 대비 두 배 이상 올라 선행 PER이 12~13배에서 22.5배로 상승. 밸류에이션이 높아 하락 위험이 커 실적 발표 후 매수를 제안.

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※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. hey everyone Taiwan semiconductor is scheduled to report earnings results on Thursday July 18th so I wanted to preview those upcoming figures and answer if I think investors should buy Taiwan semiconductor stuck before or after it reports quarterly earnings or if you should buy this stock at all in the range of 19.6 billion to 20.4 billion in the upcoming quarterly earnings release remember in the first quarter the company was guiding to revenue at the midpoint of 18.4 billion and it delivered 18.9 billion in Revenue similarly Taiwan semi is forecasting 40 to 42% in operating profit margin in the second quarter it forecasted the same operating profit margin in the first quarter it delivered on the higher end of that forecast coming in at 42% operating profit margin in the first quarter to some of the most popular AI companies in the world including Nvidia and AMD Nvidia does not manufacture its own chips rather it outsources the manufacturing to Taiwan semiconductor and so as Nvidia prospers so will Taiwan semiconductor that's probably why you're considering Taiwan semi as an investment today is because you've heard that it's a supplier to Nvidia and you're bullish on nvidia's prospects and you're looking to benefit from nvidia's boom indirectly through Taiwan semiconductor which I've felt is a reasonable strategy I've ha I'm happy with the results as the stock has performed exceptionally well here in 2024 as I highlighted Taiwan semiconductors stock price is up to $184 per share that's up significantly from around $90 per share where it started 2024 so the stock price has more than doubled year to date in 20 24 still looking at the company's longer term it has demonstrated excellent performance it's not just in the last year year and a half that t Taiwan semiconductor has performed well Revenue has increased to 71.4 6 billion in the trailing 12 months that's up from a little more than 20 billion in 2015 Revenue approaches 100 billion in the next 5 years as a result of the growing demand for Semiconductor chips some Market expectations forecast that semiconductor demand will double from current levels over the next decade and Taiwan semiconductor will certainly benefit from that Tailwind now it's not just that Taiwan semiconductor has been growing Revenue it's also one of the more profitabl it generated an outbreak ing profit margin of 41.8 2% and that was up from roughly 38% in 2015 Taiwan semiconductor is making significant investments in expanding its manufacturing capabilities outside of Taiwan billions of dollars in investments in new countries like Japan and the United States will help diversify its supply chain outside of Taiwan additionally Taiwan semi conductor is investing billions of dollarss to capitalize on the latest generation technology the most Innovative technology so that it can continue to increase its performance and increase its desirability among chip designers like Nvidia because it has the capability to produce these Cutting Edge Technologies now with the increase in Taiwan semiconductors share price has also been the increase in the valuation when I rated Taiwan semiconductor stock a buy earlier in 2024 it was trading at a forward price to earnings in the low double digits around 12 to 13 that valuation has now soared up to a forward price to earnings of 22.5991,40.2667,17 now Taiwan semiconductor has earned this premium valuation because of the business prospects are much improved over the last year year and a half that being said when I'm forecasting or when I'm trying to answer whether or not to buy a stock before or after earnings one of the things I'm looking at is valuation is it on the higher end of its valuation does it appear relatively expensive according to its past or does it appear relatively cheap according to its past and if I want to buy before earnings what I'm looking for is a stock that's trading on the lower end of where it's been over the last several years because in those instances I'm concerned that the earnings do not have to be that strong and the stock price will jump anyways because it's coming into the earnings release at a depressed valuation however when you're coming into to the earnings at an elevated valuation then the earnings report has to be exceptional to cause another increase in share price so when you're coming into the earnings release on this upward momentum there's greater risk to the downside than there is to the upside so when I'm coming in with the valuation stretched as Taiwan semi I'm more inclined to suggest buying after the earnings release because I'm more concerned with the risks to the downside then the risks to the upside and that's precisely what I would suggest her business with great profitability great Revenue growth and Great Expectations over the next several years however the valuation is on the higher end so I would be more concerned with the risks to the downside so if I was an investor thinking about buying this stock before after earnings I would wait until after earnings when we're this close to the earnings release let the new information come out digest that new information make sure everything is okay and then you can go ahead and make the purchase now there is a chance that the earnings will be so good that the stock price will jump by 30% and you might miss out on those gains there is that risk but I would rather take that risk then coming into it buying it before this information is out and then the stock price Falls falling significantly and then dealing with those losses so in this case I prefer waiting digesting the new information then making a decision of course I will have a review of Taiwan semis earnings results soon after they are available to the public