저자: Kevin · 외국인
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미 노동통계국(BLS) 고용보고서가 헤드라인 수치(일자리 증가 22.3만)와 달리 실제로는 정규직 감소, 시간제·다중직업자 증가라는 질적 악화를 보인다고 주장. 두 조사 간 이중계산 가능성과 평균 주당 근로시간 감소로 임금상승률이 과대평가됐을 수 있어 연준이 과도하게 긴축할 위험이 있다고 경고. 본인은 희망은 투자전략이 아니라며 경기 침체 우려를 제기.
다듬은 글
while the government is misleading us again and not only are they misleading us with the labor report but unfortunately they're potentially misleading the Federal Reserve as well now that's not to suggest that the Federal Reserve is stupid it's just to suggest that the Federal Reserve bases a lot of their actions on what the Labor Statistics are telling us and when the Labor Statistics come in hot guess what the Federal Reserves does they get a little more aggressive last report the Labor Statistics came a little hot and what'd we get we got Jerome Powell who came out just a couple weeks later and acted a little more hawkish and suggested the labor market was so tight and wages were so increasing that the three parts of inflation that we have to deal with only two of them were actually coming down goods inflation and household inflation like rent inflation is finally starting to rotate down but wages are surprisingly sticky and they're still going up and that could lead to a wage price spiral which would crash economies nce again came out and actually had to revise some of the garbage they gave us last month and even at that they're still misleading us with some of the other numbers in this video I'm going to break that down for you first this one a little bit more benign but shows you graphically some of the issues so Jerome Powell who was a little frustrated last month was referring to the light blue line that average hourly earnings based on a 12-month rate of change had actually risen in the last Labor report and that made Jerome Powell nervous but the Bureau of Labor Statistics screwed up and they ended up revising the average hourly earnings change from last month to instead of rising to actually lower and then flat at a lower level and then down in other words great versus bad the that we could see depicted or actually written out right here we had average hourly earnings for the last 12 months that came in at 4.6 percent the estimate was five percent and the last hourly earning read was also revised down that revision down was critical we saw a revision down to 4.8 percent from 5.1 for those year-over-year figures that's a big shift and that actually suggests wait a minute maybe there's actually more slack in the labor market than we think which is a good thing to some degree because it removes that last mass of fear the FED has of a wage price spiral now don't get me wrong I'm all for people making more money but not to the point where it looks like people are making so much more money that the Federal Reserve has to destroy your job make you get unemployed and destroy the economy much more than they actually need to because they think the economy is much stronger than it is based on all the phony money printing they did leading to all this inflation that now they're fighting but that's not the big part the frustrating part with the Federal Reserve is uh they they continue to look at some of these headline numbers where we go oh look the headline number here we were expecting to get 203 000 jobs would we get we got 223 000 jobs oh no the employment Market is still very very tight now the Philadelphia fed has come out and suggested just about three weeks ago wait a minute maybe we're over counting people because there are two surveys there's an establishment survey which counts how many payrolls there are then there's a household survey which counts how many people are actually working and that means maybe we're double counting people who have multiple jobs and what did we find out happened between November and December's jobs reports well shout out to Zero Hedge take a look at this chart it's damning job changes from November to December ready for this full-time job changes minus one thousand part-time job changes Plus 679 000 jobs multiple job holders plus 370 000 jobs look usually people in this market work part-time not because there aren't full-time jobs available they take an extra full-time or a part-time job because they have to they have to supplement their income that's why you get a big bump in multi-jobholders and part-time but then you also see another bump sort of the the rest of the chart right because if multi-jobholders let's say this is the multi-jobholders portion you still have another part over here that's part-time that isn't also full-time and that could be represented by a couple things a people with full-time jobs need to get an additional part-time job not because they want to have an additional part-time job driving Uber or doing Dior de Shay but because they have to they're Americans they pay the freaking bills they do what they got to do they get another job and they get through a hard time by working harder and paying the bills rather than giving up they keep going now that sucks you don't want to do that forever it's hard but hopefully that pain is temporary but you also see an increase in part-time workers potentially as people who retired realize oh even though I got a nice Cola cost living adjustment for Social Security dang things are still expensive out here I gotta go get another job or get a job again so you enter the labor force as a part-time individual this is a very different story than seeing Oh number of jobs uh went up by 223 000 in December um well what kind of jobs well apparently not a lot of full-time jobs apparently a lot of part-time jobs and multi-job holders uh and massive changes in those sectors November to December but if we actually look at march to December so we zoom out a little bit more what do we get here we actually get a decline of full-time employment by 288 000 a net increase of part-time employment of 886 000 and multi-jobholders up 684 000.
point is between March and December it looks like we have actually on net lost full-time employment yet what is the Bureau of Labor Statistics tell us well they tell us that we've actually created 2.1 million more jobs than the household survey shows but what kind of jobs are we potentially creating well it doesn't seem to be full-time work it seems to be a lot uh to some degree here part-time and multi-job work now this is a little wild because you have a Federal Reserve that is starting off with looking at these headline numbers and they're saying uh-oh looks like we have wage inflation looks like we have more uh more jobs being created it's time for us to be more aggressive and talk about how we're going to raise interest rates more but it seems like there's a very real risk the Bureau of Labor Statistics isn't actually doing the best they could and maybe they're trying but it's hard for them with the data they have but it doesn't look like we're getting the best uh in terms of clear data when we zoom in and we're we're starting to realize holy smokes we're losing full-time work average hourly work weeks are also declining now that's another issue compared to all of what I've just described that's another issue because watch this if you go here to the average hourly work week for all employees in this last report declining by 0.1 hours that's actually very important I'll give you a very quick example let's say you're paid a salary of two thousand dollars okay so you're paid a salary of two thousand dollars that's different from being paid hourly right but let's say you in your case are paid salary two thousand dollars per week okay if your average hourly work week was 34.4 like it was last month 34.4 2000 divided by 34.4 that implies you were paid about 58 dollars 14 cents per hour but if your average hourly work week actually went down to 34.3 then 2000 divided by 34.3 it makes it look like you made more money in this case about 16 17 cents more money 17 cents might not seem like a lot but it's a big deal because when we look over here and we go the average payrolls in the last report increased nine cents then that implies wage inflation is occurring but wait a minute if in this example 17 cents was made up by the fact that you got paid the same amount even though you worked a little bit less because there was less work to be done at the factory than a lot of potentially that wage increase could actually be written off as a shorter work week which actually might mean wage inflation in reality is flat or negative that's wild so peace piece all of this together here as sort of a bottom line and and you see how Wild this is okay so what do we have first we have that the headline numbers double counting double counting people and even the Philadelphia fed said this the Philadelphia fed said that in Q2 the BLS suggested we created 1.1 million jobs the reality was more like maybe we created 10 000 jobs the Philadelphia fed pointed out that the Bureau of Labor Statistics might be wrong okay and that's because of the double counting but it's not just that where we're seeing the real big increase in jobs isn't part-time jobs multi-job holders which when you have multi-jobholders it's an implication that there's economic stress and actually a decline in full-time job holders at the same time average hourly earnings May we're not certain about this but may appear higher as the work week shrinks so all of a sudden I I mean I'm not I don't want to come across as like hey I'm just I'm just looking for reasons to be like hopeful here in fact I'm not very hopeful when I look at the government data because it just it seems like the amount of revisions we get and the amount of sort of misleadingness that we get with headline numbers that aren't actually reflective of what's really happening it makes you a little frustrated because the labor report we got that headline number implies oh man dang that job market it just continues to be tight what the heck well then you break it apart and you're like wait a minute we're a barely creating jobs according to the Philadelphia fed we're getting people who are working more because of well rate hikes uh and inflation leading to more pain in the economy people's household net worth is going down their stocks are going down their car values are going down everything's going down in terms of things that you own which is very painful so people potentially get another job so they can go buy that new paintball gun or whatever they want and hey I'll go paintballing with you okay big fan but anyway then what else do you get you get a decline in full-time workers now that's weird because you think like does this mean people are less needed oh no well if that's the case then maybe it means production is actually falling and companies realize we're going into a recession they're actually laying off which is what we're starting to see even McDonald's is talking about laying off more of their corporate staff and their stocks only download like one percent year over year and average hourly earnings may actually appear even higher as that work week shrinks that's wild and in my opinion seeing this I become somewhat hopeful that soon and remember hope is not an investing strategy okay I'm a licensed financial advisor I run an ETF I run educationa you know long-term investment mindsets buying real estate wedge deals I teach you everything I know and I'm not here to say hope is a good strategy but I am here to say that the more we look at the actual Deep dive numbers the more concerned I get that the FED is going way too far way too fast and they're acting based on numbers that may actually not be as accurate as they think and that's scary because when you have somebody driving the car that doesn't even realize they're being Reckless you're tightening your seatbelt because you're like dude we're coming in for a crash man happy Saturday everyone thank you so much for watching consider sharing the video if you found it helpful and we'll see in the next one good luck and goodbye
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