저자: Kevin · 외국인
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소비자 신용 증가폭이 예상보다 크게 나와 신용 버블 우려를 제기. 대출기준 완화 → BNPL 등 고수익 대출 공급 확대 → 2025~2026년경 부채 붕괴 가능성. 단기적으로는 경기침체를 늦추며 금융회사에 기회가 있다고 주장. 가계 소득 대비 부채상환비율 9.6%가 13~20%로 올라가면 위험. 마지막엔 강의/플랫폼 홍보.
다듬은 글
we need to talk about a serious potential issue in the United States and potentially global economy and this isn't exactly bullish either it has to do with a Global Credit bubble and I know oftentimes when people say the word bubble there are some people who are like yeah finally and then there are others who are like Oh eye roller okay bubble here we go everything's a bubble well let's understand a potential scenario we could actually be facing using data that just came out minutes ago as usual I love presenting data as it just comes out this data was released minutes ago here on August 7th and this is the Federal Reserve statistical release for Consumer Credit it's a little bit backward looking these numbers are from June so it does take them about six weeks to put these numbers together or as some like to say rig the numbers but that usually just depends on what side of the fence post draw anyway what we found in this data was that Consumer Credit expanded substantially more rapidly than we actually expected it to and this leads to some potential bubble concerns let's quickly understand this so expectations or that we would see a 13.5 billion dollar increase in credit the previous increase in credit was 7.24 more in line with trending towards zero and potentially recessionary instead we actually got another blowout number at 17.84 and while it's nowhere near the levels that we had seen at the end of last year where Consumer Credit was exploding to the tune of 34 to 37 billion dollars in a month it's clearly coming in hotter than expected now personally I think it's important to put everything into context and these numbers are clearly smaller than those 30 billion gains we had for Consumer Credit last say March and really in the middle of last year where we were really exploding with Consumer Credit this is really where people were getting concerned about a consumer credit explosion and this softening has actually come as a way to say okay well on one hand that's good less bubble risk but on the other hand does that mean we're trending towards a recession and as you can see the trend here is clearly down this latest beat over expectations though sets up an idea that perhaps as we end up getting the July and August data we could start revisiting some of the numbers that we saw in early 2022.
one of the reasons we might actually see an explosion of consumer credit is what I call a weakening of loan standards now this is really counter-intuitive because remember during the banking crisis what was everybody screaming during the banking crisis roll with me on this and you might see something here that's kind of shocking so during the banking crisis everybody was worried about credit contraction but the credit contraction we actually got was just Trend contraction we were trending towards uh oh we might go into recession right we might have recession so let's plan for that let's do less risky lending and companies kind of focused inward on uh-oh might have recession well now because more of the economy is anticipating a soft landing and no recession guess what you actually tend to have a trend reversal and this would be looser credit standards now this is forward-looking okay this is my opinion right here we see consumer credits coming in stronger we don't yet know that credit standards are loosening but why do I think that credit standards might begin to loosen and how could that lead to a debt bubble well here's exactly how and then we'll talk about what it means for recession I believe that when you have companies like PayPal who are able to take their buy now pay later loans and offload them in Europe to this company called KKR what you're really saying is the market has an appetite appetite for high yields this makes sense if risk-free treasuries are giving you four to five percent and you could potentially get 11 to 15 on a bundle of bnpl loans even if 10 percent of them default you're still probably yielding somewhere between rough math here 9 to 13ish percent on your bnpl portfolio which is still like twice as good as treasuries so give me more bnpls but what happens in a non-recessionary Time demand for these portfolios demand for these goes up in recessionary time demand for these goes down okay so now you have to think about this as a supply and demand issue so consider this if bnpl Supply gets eaten up what do companies like a firm and Sofi and PayPal and credit card companies want to do what do they want to do they want to increase Supply they want more of these high-yield BNP loans that they could sell off to these other Pension funds or investment funds how do you do that well you do that by loosening credit standards basically saying hey hey hey look we all thought we were going in a recession but you know what good news we're not going into a recession come one come all get your new bnpl loan we are more than happy to give you the best rates ever best terms ever come get more loans from us because the more loans affirm so if I'm PayPal and the credit car companies can make the more payments get processed which is how all these companies make money in part then they take the loans and sell the loans which is another way all these finance companies make money and then those institutions they're the ones holding the bag and the bag's either going to do very well and they're going to get their yield or they'll have some defaults or you go into recession you really end up holding the bag so this is like a remarkable flip okay everybody's been concerned about credit tightening I actually think now that we're trending towards a soft Landing we're likely to go into credit loosening now what is that actually and practically going to do for the economy in the short term and then a recession in the longer term well in my opinion here's what happens and obviously I don't have a crystal bulb but my expectation is if you have credit contraction going throughout 2022 and then you get a reversal in 2023 where you actually end up getting is no recession in 2023 you actually end up getting more spending and more indebtedness eventually from consumers eventually those consumers will not be able to support their household payments anymore and then you get default and that's where you actually get a real recession so if we're potentially right here in 2023 then this x date I do not believe that's your default date right I do not believe that X State actually occurs until sometime long in the future like I don't think it's 2024 maybe is it 2025 probably not it's probably more like a 26 to 30 instance which means you can really Kick the Can of the recession down the road and this is something that bears are not in my opinion paying attention to right now this is not me being permeable this is actually long-term bad this is going to be a real risk in our lifetimes that we have to pay attention to the people are going to take on too much debt and there's going to be a debt bubble in a terrible collapse uh and and an increase of bankruptcies across the board personal bankruptcies business bankruptcies everything and but the problem is right now is actually very low let's pull it up let's get the latest data right here we're super low right now you know I know household debt itself like nominally is high but people still have the income to support these payments as of q1 of 2023 people are spending just 9.6 of their income their disposable income on debts I think we're going to end up getting back to 13 and then exceeding that level that we saw before the Great Recession this is how you actually really create a bubble you fuel it now with loosening credit standards then you get to say 13 to 20 credit uh or uh payments as a percentage of your disposable income towards credit and towards that right and then guess what you end up getting you get a real bubble that's when you have the real collapse so what is this credit figuring mean in the short term well let's make a conclusion out of this and let's try to summarize this all together and keep in mind these are the sort of perspectives that I like to talk about regularly in my course member live streams daily it's not just fundamental analysis on stocks but it's my opinion my real fully transparent opinion on here's what I'm doing here's what's going on with my businesses here's what I'm seeing and it's this idea formulating that we get to do together generally every day the market is open sometimes I make a mistake and I miss but usually I'm there every day the market is open so what does this practically mean so practical guide to this well short term this kicks the recession down the road what to watch for credit loosening I know everybody's talking about credit tightening but remember the time to start thinking about what other people are not paying attention to is now so what does that potentially mean maybe finance companies are becoming the place to be in other words banks credit cards PayPal just launched their stable coin right these are these are all examples or of of places to consider being when you're on the upswing in in credit expansion you want to be in these companies hashtag not Financial advice I am a licensed financial advisor but obviously I don't understand your portfolio maybe one day in the future I can actually give you personalized Financial advice but that would be down the road so maybe not too far down the road though so short term this kicks the recession can down the road we look for credit loosening maybe finance companies start becoming a place where we really want to fundamentally look for opportunities because in credit expansion you want to be in these companies then the risk that you want to watch for is credit payments as a percentage of disposable income watch this uh approach and exceed in my opinion 2008 levels I'll probably say 2007 is more accurate uh yeah 2007 was the peak okay and then uh eventual risk real uh great reset so to speak bubble uh explosion crash but before that I would actually expect an earnings trough potentially in Q2 Q3 of 2023 and credit expansion supports New Growth ad companies so short term this is actually good longer term this is going to sow the seeds today of the next financial crisis my take rough link down below you can also Shadow me when we explore real estate check that all out via the link down below ll the other access into beautiful courses I'm building through real estate stocks entrepreneurship being an employee you name it there's a program for you you can even bundle them together or
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