저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee은 대선 직후 증시 랠리 지속을 전망하며 연말까지 5~10% 상승 여력을 주장. VIX 선물 곡선이 높아 과도한 리스크 회피 후 반등 여지가 있다고 봄. 테슬라는 AI 숨은 자산이 있어 저평가라며 자사 대형주 ETF(Granny Shots)의 최상위 종목으로 편입. 단기 목표가 300달러를 제시했고, 마크 뉴턴의 기술적 분석을 인용해 내년 상반기 신고가 돌파 및 565달러 가능성 언급. 출연자 Larry Goldberg는 채권금리 상승을 근거로 훨씬 신중한 입장.
다듬은 글
Tesla stock is on a major run but what's even more rewarding is when big names like Tom Lee director of research at fun Strat gets on board not only is Tom now forecasting a strong year and rally for the market overall with Tesla he's surprisingly now calling it undervalued fun Strat just launched a new large cap ETF and guess which is his top pick out of 20 to 50 positions yes Tesla he's calling Tesla having an hidden asset of AI I at Larry Goldberg here with me we'll watch a video of Tom Lee explaining what it is he's doing and why Tesla is now his top position welcome Larry thank you great to be here H so fun Strat Tom Lee very well respected in the market um interesting that he's now talking Tesla uh but uh creating a new ETF too large cap so first we'll watch his video the first bit his his his projection that the year end is going to have a really big rally for Tech in general and then he talks later second half of his video the large cap ETF that he created why he picked Tesla and what do he thinks Tesla is a big deal so let's uh watch this Tom Lee is our headliner today he joins us now he's the managing partner of course and head of research also a contributor it's good to see you again thank you again for helping us um guide our investing viewers through election night it was good having you so what do you make now you you've had a chance to digest a little bit of of what what's happened yesterday was you know felt euphoric now what well I uh yeah first of all Scott thank you for having me on Election night it was historic and I I really um enjoyed it um the move yesterday 3% the best move in the history of any post-election rally I think uh needs to be respected because it really highlights uh one of two things or both one is that there was so much drisking into that election actually it was unus ual we we actually fell 2 weeks into election day that that happens like about a third of the time and the second is that animal spirits could be un Unleashed because of the the interest and belief that there's deregulation and mergers and a pro business environment so I I think it's a very respectable move and I think it sort of argues we have 5 to 10% upside into your end at what point though do you get on board with Barry bannister's idea that we could be the train could be leaving the station head uh you know full speed to Crazy Town well um he's sort of structurally correct that um you know this Market top is not going to be because of someone's going to have a problem with PE or because of a recessions uh going to happen I I think it's very likely you know in the next six months the top is because either Firepower is exhausted or expectations have become unhinged on markets we can measure either right with a we can look at margin debt that's just been flat for the last 4 months so the Market's been up and most investors have been drisking that's pretty that's fuel for me upside Fuel and when you look at sentiment readings it's it's not extreme in fact the vix was elevated and only normalized yesterday so I don't think sentiment extreme gosh I was just going to ask you about the vix it's funny you went there I'm staring right at it I mean it's down 30% on the week I just a fullblown collapse right don't forget we were we're above 20 I think we were at 22 at one point last last week we're barely above 15 yeah it was actually very interesting to look at the Vick's Futures curve but on Election Day the vix Futures curve was over 20 all the way through August of next year that's it should be around 15 16 the markets were pricing in tumult and uncertainty for like 9 months 10 months so I think there's a huge amount of risking taking place I don't think people got their exposure yesterday and today I mean look you you I know thought that we wouldn't know the outcome of the election for many weeks I think that was your base case coming in so I think there's a lot of surprise reink as we look at where this Market might be able to go on that note and Pa there so what do you think Larry he's being very very bullish he it's great to hear Tom Lee how he thinks and what metrics he's following but um do you think that the way he's he's guessing or his forecasting what's going to happen to the stocks Market's going to keep going up bullish God if Tom Lee is bullish who am I to be bearish I mean he's I mean you don't get a better an stock picker than that or analyst than that I'm not as optimistic as he is you know I'm watching um bond yields Bond yelds are you know 4.2 I mean that's that's not looking like you know the Market's going to take off but and it's going up by the way so I'm not as bullish as he is and um I think that we're going to find after the you know when we get into the new year and there's going to be positioning by the new Congress and and the president and so I think there's a while before we actually before we settle down and then that's from the political side the macro site I think you know we are coming out of what uh Kathy would cause a rolling recession so it could be that there's a little bit of upside and so in that in that V he may be correct so I I don't know I'm I'm very nervous of this Market that's it I'm very nervous of this Market he's not I should uh I should gather my courage we've been in a down market for two three years now you've got the interest rates being cut you just heard fed Powell uh being very optimistic himself he's continuing to believe that doesn't give me any courage okay okay I guess if interest rates you know the the the narrative is that interest rates will continue to be cut um and I know there's some concern about Job cuts and whether or not we're we're not through the woods or anything like that but uh you know large caps uh technology is uh is taken over and uh look okay large software companies are doing very well yeah govern employees are doing very well and there are a lot of them and and there more of them being employed all the time we're at we're at the peak of government employment not seen since Clinton so yeah there are components of the economy that are doing very well which means to say that at the current level of growth there are huge swats of the of the economy principally manufacturing that are doing extremely poorly and are in recession so you know is that a good platform for growth I don't know okay let's uh go back to the mag s the to large cap ETF uh fund Strat here Tom Lee created a brand new large cap ETF and uh Tesla's right at the top watch you do have a new ETF which I want to talk about it's called the fun Strat granny shots us large cap ETF um Granny shots being that you think these would be a little bit easier to make right at the that's right it's how' you build it there we're talking about names I I hope that we show this I I think we we have produced this up U Tesla Goldman JPM Johnson Controls caterpillar Emerson trans diim Eaton Oracle ingera that's the top 10 but H how'd you build that um the granny shots uh ETF is really a or built upon the research model we used at fun Strat that was a thematic uh core stock portfolio that we had been using since 2019 so for six consecutive years it takes seven what we consider relevant Market themes and it finds the most correlated stocks to those themes whether it's AI or Millennials or fed easing or improving um pmis and then the stocks that appear in MO in the most frequently across themes are our granny shots and Granny shots is named after Hall of Famer Rick Barry's way of sh free throws some of us do remember that we definitely do um Tesla's the number one stock the waiting is three and a qu% you want to just talk about the move in in that stock this week and and what it means to you in in context of of how you built this and where you think it can go yes um Tesla has in our research product had been appearing um since Inception since 2019 because that company has a hidden asset which is is it Ai and intellectual property and now of course the intellectual property built around all this infrastructure they own so it's a company that to us looks undervalued because people look at it as a a car maker or and look at at current margins and earnings but as we know there's a lot of new initiatives whether it's robotaxi and you know robots and uh and now of course there is a political angle that you guys well discussed and I I think it can only help Tesla Tom be well we talk to you soon appreciate you Tom Lee fun Strat so Tom Lee isn't it refreshing to see this analyst talking about Tesla as an AI company um you and I just did a show uh we probably published a day ago where we covered eight analysts and they are just still talking about Tesla's an auto company and then regulations will allow robot taxi to improve but uh he still believes it's an hidden asset what do you think what he said about Tesla and Tom Lee mentions robots yeah which none of the other analysts mentioned now Roberts are you know thematically part of the AI story but Tomley understands this company very well and it's very refreshing to see so you know I'm aligned with him 100% I if I had an ETF if I were running an ETF Tesla would be right at the top and uh what what do you think about this whole thing about a hidden asset of AI so people believe that you know with the jump of Tesla stock recently they're attributing it to uh not only the regulation removal uh because of the Trump admin because of elon's relationship but because more and more are believing in robotaxi do you think this hidden asset of AI is still at the beginning are we already well into this or investors no we you know the story of AI has not been written yet what we're at is the very early beginnings of the story of AI we don't even know the forms that AI is going to take we we're really stuck in in the early days of how to exp how to build these L these large language models or these large models what their cap what their capabilities actually are and where it's going to take us I think that if any company is in the perfect position to you know exploit AI it is is Tesla and as as AI leads us through its surprising future very surprising future I think we're going to find more and more product capability or products to be built on top of that that AI that Tesla are going to bring to Market because they are you know their their product genius is just un unas un unequaled anywhere in in in the world l i you know I think it's right to say that fun Strat and specifically Tom Lee is well respected yeah now that they've created not only a recommendation for Tesla but actually has a large cap ETF that includes Tesla that is Tesla's one of the top picks him talking about Tesla being an AI company is that going to be influential to other funds uh who wants to choose what to buy they'll look at to Tom Lee and goes hey I respect this guy I respect what they're doing it they pick it we ought to pick it too absolutely he's got a lot of influence a huge amount of influence on uh on the street um he'll be watched very carefully and when they when when people see his pick I mean it just adds to The credibility of the company so we're going to see a lot of first the S&P companies are have to going to have to build their their numbers up and we're going to see a lot of um you know PMS portfolio managers also picking Tesla moving forward and it's going to increase the ownership of the stock I don't know if the move of the stock in the last couple of days uh since the election and since the the investor meeting um and the great deliveries I don't know to what extent um you know we've fully priced in all of that and we fully priced in the political aspects but there's no doubt that when we see moves like this we you know we're adding to the story we're adding to the appeal and we're making Tesla you know great again so yeah I think I think we're on our way so right what happen obviously it's like you know retail investors spot an opportunity we see a growth company we buy into it then for years we've been like banging our heads against wall why aren't the institution analysts seeing what we see now you know because of the Trump win you see that them jumped raised their upgrades not only by 10 bucks or five bucks which is what they did three weeks ago remember that we were having fun with them going everybody upgraded everything but they did it by five bucks yeah now they're doing it by $50 by $100 and then you've got fun Strat and these you know like bigger names doing this does this now really turn this into a fomo where others will start buying into it big time is that what's gonna see next yeah I think you're right on target look I I predicted $300 by the end of the year boy was I way way out I mean I couldn't have been more wrong directionally I I I had it right but man it just ran over my prediction just it was it takes a lot of guts to actually even say 300 because when you were saying that the sentiment even from us Bulls were so low that nobody was willing to say 300 yeah and now it's well past that um any chance that Warren Buffett would ever do this I know then it's almost z% chance because is just not there there's nothing he's he's uh he's uh racking up the cash and he sold a little bit of his T apple and he's not doing BuyBacks and he's like people are wondering if he's preparing for a recession I think he saw a move down I think he um I think he's surprised by this move up honestly um I wouldn't be surprised if he had predicted a serious problem around the um around the election um but look Warren Buffett is 94 95 he's he's getting on there's going to be a transition he's preparing for that transition so I don't think the um you know the short term means that much to him I think he's preparing something very strategic yeah I just think it's uh interesting you have somebody like a fun Strat Tom Le like very very bullish right talking about the year end rally May he goes it may may start pulling back in the new year then you've got uh him choosing Tesla um his uh I've had Mark Newton who is his technical analyst the head of fun Strat on three times and what he predicts for Tesla he was dead on right he called the absolute low of 140 in April he then called that it's going to hit 270 which it did and he said that once it hits 270 it's on its way to 300 which is where we're at now he's saying that it's going to hit Tesla will hit its all-time high in the uh first quarter or second quarter of next year somewhere in those six months it's going to go up to alltime high past alltime high and he says once it hits past alltime high it's free it's free sailing all the way to 565 or some crazy number I I mean I have I have very similar views I don't know about his timing you know he's pretty precise and he's been very precise in his timing and I listen very carefully to that session because I have huge amount of respect for him um you know he's looking at at technicals and I'm just thinking about the product roll out we've got some very very good news coming next year in terms of product roll out we've got you know I'm telling you FSD is getting so good I just see 20 25 I I see us rolling out the the robot taxi Fleet probably an assisted you know with assist driving assisted uh for the first three four months so I think he's I think he's on Target and you know whether it happens that early in the year or a little bit lateer in the year it's going to happen in in my judgment so yeah it's pretty exciting time for us thank you so much appreciate your comments uh follow Larry on his ex account at Tesla Larry thanks everybody bye I've created a website that is the most comprehensive resource for the Tesla investor please check it out Simply go to my website at herbert.com
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