Wall Street Analysts: Dan Ives and Ray Wang: Bullish on $TSLA and Economy

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첫 줄: 테슬라는 단기 조정 후 AI·자율주행 기업으로 재평가될 것이며 Dan Ives는 6~9개월 내 300달러 이상 회복을 예측 [테슬라 전망 — Dan Ives(W. Bush Securities)] 목표가 310달러(현 주가 대비 약 50% 상승 여력)를 제시, 6~9개월 내 300달러 이상 회복 전망 현재 하락은 성장 둔화에 따른 일시적 '에어포켓'으로 보고 마진은 바닥을 다지며 내년 수치는 보수적이라 판단 배터리 기술·FSD·자율주행을 합한 가치(sum of the parts)가 저평가됐고 AI 관련 최고 플레이 중 하나라고 주장 [중국·수요·금리 리스크] 중국 시장이 테슬라 성장의 핵심이며 가격 인하로 어느 정도 안정화 국면 진입 중이라 봄 내년 230~240만 대 판매 중 40~50%는 중국에서 나와야 한다고 언급 금리 상승은 소비자 수요와 테슬라 강세론에 부담이며 채권시장 영향이 중요하다고 평가 [경쟁사·비판 — Jeff Lutz 반론] 패널 측 비관 전문가들은 정보가 부정확하고 숏 포지션으로 자기 이익을 대변한다고 비판 리프트(Lucid)·Le AO 등 경쟁사는 확장이 어렵다고 보고 테슬라 우위는 유지된다고 주장 자율주행 하드웨어 원가는 테슬라가 경쟁사보다 낮다는 취지로 설명 [AI·빅테크 — Ray Wang(Constellation Research)] 마이크로소프트가 다음 달 애플을 제치고 세계 최대 기업이 될 것으로 전망(당시 시총 애플 2.87조 달러, MS 2.70조 달러) MS는 클라우드와 기업용 AI 도입 확산으로 성장, 엔비디아는 단기적으로 GPU 공급 제약이 있으나 AMD·구글 TPU 등 경쟁 심화 예상 [테슬라 AI 기업 재평가 전망 — Lutz] 테슬라는 자체 추론 칩을 설계해 위탁 생산하고 Dojo 등 자체 AI 인프라를 보유해 AI 기업으로 재평가될 것이라 주장 현재 시장은 테슬라를 자동차 회사로 보지만 FSD 확산 시 인식이 바뀔 것이며 지금 매집할 적기라고 권유 [리스크] ChatGPT류 AI의 오류 가능성, 중국 수요·금리·경기 둔화가 주요 변수로 언급됨

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01. an important question for many of us Tesla investors right now is what will happen over the next several months to both the stock and to the economy in today's show we're going to show you a video clip from Dan IES managing director of W bush Securities who is bullish on Tesla and is targeting the stock to grow 50% to over $300 very soon and we'll also show a video of Ray Wang of consolation research who is bullish on the economy saying that he sees Microsoft overtaking Apple as the largest company in the world next month as it rides the AI wave so today we have Jeff Lutz with us Jeff is an ex supply chain executive worked at Motorola Google noo currently running his own uh consulting firm thank you so much for Jeff great to be with you Herbert looking forward to talking about this yeah so let's start with Dan Ives Dan is as we know pretty bullish on Tesla he's replying to people who actually sees Tesla very differently at the the quarter he's very bullish let's hear his uh take four of our Traders tonight are negative on Tesla so we had to bring in a pinch hitter here to play the bll our next guest has a $310 price t on Tesla that is nearly 50% upside from here let's bring in wed Bush's Dan IES welcome back Dan hey great to be here good to be here great to have you should it be kicked out of the Magnificent 7 does it go to 50 I mean like where where do you start I mean I think I think 6 to9 months from now the stock has a three in Fr in ter I think it's back to above 300 as old ultimately I believe this is more of an air pocket that we're seeing from a growth perspective I think margins start to trough out and going into next year I think numbers conservative and the sum of the parts you as Dan talked about I think when you look at Battery Technology FSD autonomous I could argue it's probably one of the best AI plays out there to me this is more of a table pounder opportunity rather than time to hide in the cave can it um grow can it gain market share can it achieve scale if China is weak weak if there are issues in China I mean if Le AO is really I mean it had a very good qu it reached 100,000 units that's the point when Tesla started making it work a 100,000 units and it's at that critical Mark now so maybe it's poised to sort of you know really win the market there yeah you raise great points Moses you know obviously raised great points I mean I just got back from Asia you know I was there for two weeks I me in my opinion the China Story the cuts they've done that's the Strategic poker move they needed to do no doubt the and soften but I do believe we're starting to see some equilibrium where I look down to next year you look at 2.3 2.4 million units 40 50% of that needs to come from China so to your point no doubt China is the hearts and lungs of the Tesla growth story but it goes back to look the the Bears have hated this if you go back five years ago three years ago and I get it they view it as an auto company as Danny talks about I view it and I've always viewed as disruptive technology company which is why I view this sell off here and a lot of the hate as more the opportunity to own it rather than the time that there's some sort of you know fire in a crowd theater no hate here all love but you know what I think Elon Musk doesn't love the fact that interest rates have been going higher he made a point of talking about it at length couple weeks ago how important is the bond market to the Tesla Bull story I mean I look must called it out and again it goes back to like that was a disaster conference call we talked about that just the way that that was handled of course it's very important because the price Cuts Essen nothing even happens that relative to the consumer and I think as Nathan's talked about ultimately you need to see that come down you need to see the China story stabilized you have a lot of competitors come from all different angles but if you look at lucid and others it's very hard to scale and I think it just continues to come down it is still Tesla's world and everyone else is paying rent in electric vehicles um I was just looking doing some research really quick I mean first off again these panels are uh outside of Dan U highly misinformed I don't think Le Auto shipped a pure electric vehicle yet it may may have been at some point this year um they just started shipping pure electric vehicles so they're I mean they're a hybrid um player but but anyway just putting that point to the side uh and by the way their autonomy solution their CEOs on the record um is saying their autonomy Solutions in the you know $4,500 to $6,000 range and they think the hardware that's in a Tesla is under you know 1,500 I think it's closer to 12200 and I I I know the founder of Le AO where I used to work he was my colleague I used to work with him and uh it's a very good company but again just starting the segment just off with with with not really good information is China getting competitive sure um but I think Dan made some of the similar comments I've been making regarding the some of the parts thesis of their um of their charging business their their battery business and their FSD uh business and and how those will continue to unfold and I think volumes you know I think I think 2024 again I like I said I've said before I think analysts tend to overshoot in both directions and I think they brought it down a little bit too much for 2024 we'll see we're going to have all kinds of macro economic concerns but you know EV adoption continues to poke through you know from a secular perspective it continues to outstrip any slowdown in in in Auto um but I I just find these panels and maybe part of the reason is is they're so watered down because they're looking at Banks they're looking at you know silicon chip companies they're looking at you know uh financial services companies they're looking at package good companies maybe they just don't have the ability to have the kind of breath and knowledge that they should have about um the auto business and the electric bus electric auto business that they probably should so I just find them to be not only just misinformed but also just highly negative uh because they're misinformed uh and and again in the case of Danny Moses in the case of Dan Nathan on that panel they have short position so they're talking their book uh against Tesla and that's that's ultimately what we're doing you and I are both bullish you and I both own the name we've been very clear uh about that and we're we're telling you not only the you know the opportunities for the company but we also talk about some of the risk too so again I just find these panels to be highly imbalanced I think Dan did a a great job kind of walking through it and supporting his his price Target I think he's going to be ultimately correct okay so there's a couple things that was mentioned in that clip one is um you know that the macro economy what's going to happen there how's that going to impact Tesla and then they I love that Dan actually referred to Tesla as an AI company a disruptive technology company so I'm going to show a clip here of Ray Wang of consolation research I'm actually going to interview Ray this week and looking forward to that he's a very well spoken but he's going to talk about uh the AI boom that's happening his opinion that Microsoft might overtake apple and then I want to ask you kind of why is Tesla still not necessarily being seen as an AI company and we'll discuss that shortly that's why watch this clip with Ray Wayside they're on the upside now meta Apple Microsoft alphabet and Amazon all moving up Ray Wong joins us to cover the technology sector this morning are you are you betting on a big Tech comeback because I think we've already had the comeback haven't we I think we've had the comeback the runup has happened but I think the important thing is AI is powering that runup and of course we've got a lot of advancements that are coming into the holiday season and this is really the Partnerships that are happening in the cloud Ai and of course that cyber security attack on the the Chinese bank the other day that's going to reinforce what's important in terms of investment in cyber security you think big Tech is going to keep on advancing across the board the the seven The Magnificent Seven they keep going up to the end of the year do they yes they do to the end of the year and then we get to a point where people do the sell off right before the end of the year to cover their losses do you have one particular big tech company you really like so right now I think the big bet is really on Microsoft and it's a lot of it's whether they're going to hit in terms of uh not just the cloud not just the aips but will they be able to break past so well there's this contest we've invented this contest actually Apple versus Microsoft who's the most valuable in the world at the moment I've got Apple at 2.87 trillion Microsoft at 2.70 trillion there's a$1 17 billion difference when is Microsoft going to catch up and beat him we think it's going to happen in the next month so really in the next month oh you come back anytime you like on this very good stuff why what what is so good about Microsoft so Microsoft's firing on all cylinders they're winning especially in terms of getting Cloud growth there's a big battles you know for cloud uh but the other piece is really the fact that companies are actually looking at them to actually bring AI into the marketplace and that's the big driver and of course they've been able to do one thing that a lot of companies their age have not been a pull off which is really get to younger users it's coming through GitHub it's coming through like the development it's coming through the consumer side and that's been one of the biggest turnarounds uh in the but do we know for a fact that AI has contributed to Microsoft's bottom line I mean is it already contributing to their profits well it's not contributing directly as the $30 per month plan that hasn't hit yet what's contributing is the fact that everybody knows they need to move their data into the cloud to start the AI process tell me about Nvidia it's close to a high $470 a share at this point something like that where's it going and going to go up they're the Arms Dealer because gpus are what drives Ai and that's really what everybody's looking for but that's going to be for the next four quarters everybody's coming back in and say I don't want want to keep paying Nvidia for gpus and so chips are coming from all different sources and you're going to see companies like AMD jump into the game you're going to see other chips like Google has a TPU that's going to come in as well and of course Microsoft's getting into the chip game as well AI is the next big thing is it AI is the biggest thing since the internet why don't I ever hear AI associated with apple and I don't what happens in the background right you get a message you know you see the text the pictures get better on your screen you take a picture it's dark it comes in Apple's done it all in the background in an ambient way there not out there touting AI it just happens that's right yeah Ray that was good stuff thank you very much indeed and I appreciate your support for Microsoft I you're a help when are we going to hear AI associated with Tesla but go ahead and reply to this comment yeah there's a number of great comments there first off you know what Apple does more of is really on the machine learning side and what you see them doing with camera and imaging and and and really your use cases for the phones and and understanding the apps you open that's really all machine learning based very little um on the AI side and then their assistant has fallen woefully behind this is why you don't hear apple and AI quite frankly quite frankly now they're gonna they're going to make a huge pitch with um their headset um their AR headset coming out and but even then I'll I'll question how much AI is involved versus machine learning and and pure Hardware it's a pretty complex piece of Hardware to build so that's why you're not hearing it U Nvidia I I like his uh his take I think they're going to be constrained for the next four quarters or so at a minimum as they catch up but then there are there is competition coming in but I think when you step back and look at it it's not that just the hardware they're selling they're selling their Cuda platform uh for AI development and that has as much you know value in it is probably the hardware itself so you know everybody's going to become a quote unquote arms dealer just like the competitions coming in EV but let's actually see the performance and what they're shipping and then let's see they if they have all the tools like Tesla has the supercharging platform they have battery supply they've got their own operating system in the car they've got autonomy you know let's see if these other silicon providers like AMD are going to have the software solution that comes with it as well I'm doubtful and then Microsoft says they're getting into everybody says they're getting the Silicon game uh and Tesla's already in it Tesla's been making the inference computer for their vehicles for probably over three years now uh they they took that business away from Nvidia remember Nvidia is fabulous Nvidia doesn't make anything they design and then they send those designs out to a tsmc for example who fabricate their chips and do the um integration onto a substrate usually with high bandwidth memory put those all together and then they ship that out and that's an h100 computer or the h200 that they just announced this morning um so why does Tesla not uh come into this conversation is because um number one Tesla doesn't advertise um I mean that's you know if you if if 98% of the world saw my yoke in my car turning as it drove around corners and did turn BYT navigation my guess is you would start hearing Tesla being talked about more as a as an AI company in terms of what they're doing in the vehicle but I think as this FSD ships and it gets into greater volume it'll be more it'll be discussed more and more um as an AI player also as Dojo ramps and they actually start U providing that service to not only themselves but the others to as grock gets out in volume you'll start hearing more and then you all of a sudden you have this AI assistant in the vehicles and all of a sudden you have this like Night Rider kit experience I sent that tweet out and Elon responded Yep this is what kind of what we're we're going for when that all starts coming together you'll hear them discuss as an AI company but just to summarize I mean they make their own AI inference chips okay uh Tes meaning they they design their own and they send them out for Fab just like Nvidia and they do their own software for for AI and machine learning and of course they have the end solution running in a consumer product that's in production you know I think everything that kind of we had this chat GPT moment in November December of last year we're coming on the year anniversary and it's amazing some of the stuff it can do but it's also highly highly error prone if you've used chat gp4 if you've used Bard you get a lot of wrong answers and in a vehicle you're not allowed to get that many wrong answers it's got to make the right decision video in control out it's got to be you know to the nines perfect so I think Tesla's going after a different a different animal when it comes to AI but once it's solved and it's in it's at scale and it's visible to others I think it it will be in those conversations and I think there'll be a realization too of like oh my God they designed their own INF chips oh my God they designed their own data centers oh my God they're sending them all out for Fab and they you know they're they're going to be in production on their own data center this year they already are in production on their own Data Center and then now they're filling that out with Nvidia and with Tesla silicon I think there'll be a realization like it like it's been in the past Tesla investors people that study the company are usually a bit out out ahead of this well it's been very frustrating for us Tesla investors in a way it's actually still good that the story is still to come so you saw that Microsoft uh they're they're booming they're growing people think they're going to be the largest company in the world next month Ray saying Nvidia of course has uh benefited from the AI Boom the most I love the way he said that he's an arms dealer but Tesla as you just outlined has everything has everything and yet it's not being valued as an AI Company still seeing as a car company which is good and bad but I think it's ultimately good because it means that the valuation is about to come and us who are in it now who want to keep accumulating it's the best time when you know something is about to come that no one else is seeing yet that you do thank you so much Jeff follow him on X at uh the Jeff Lutz thanks everybody bye thanks Herbert appreciate it