저자: LarryGoldberg · 외국인
요약 보기
ARK Invest가 테슬라를 약 2,700만 달러어치 추가 매수한 이유를 분석. 연말 포트폴리오 정리, 사이버트럭·모델 2 등 2024년 모멘텀, 로보택시·AI·Dojo 기대가 배경으로 제시됨. 사회자는 ARK의 과거 매매 실패와 10% 비중 제한 문제도 언급. Larry는 ARK 리서치와 몬테카를로 밸류에이션을 높이 평가하나 크립토 투자에는 회의적.
다듬은 글
so in a shocking move, ARK Invest actually bought more Tesla stock this time, for $27 million, and likely more buying to come. ARK has been selling Tesla over the last year, so why are they now doing an about-face and loading up? Let's explore some of those reasons. We've got Larry Goldberg here with us. He's a multi-entrepreneur who has been following ARK Invest, as many of us have been, for the last year. What did you think when you first heard that news, Larry?
Not surprised. ARK trades. It's a fund, but it's also an ETF, and it's also a trader, so they tend to trade, and they've done pretty well out of their trading on Tesla stock. As much as I'm a fan of Cathie Wood and of that organization and its researchers, who are second to none and who share their research openly, which is quite amazing, I'm also puzzled by some of their investments and some of their timing. But they're a very successful firm. I think they missed an opportunity to load up on Tesla stock right at the bottom, and I think they're probably buying now in preparation for the new year. The new year really promises some very significant moves by Tesla, with the realization of the Cybertruck, the conversion of the Model Y into really fairly significant sales, the announcement of the Model 2 or the next gen. So I think Cathie Wood and the team really realized that the moment has come, or the moment is going to come during the course of the coming year or so. That's what I think is happening right now.
Let me report that news. Alexander Merz of Tesla Bull Mama really does follow ARK quite a bit. In fact, she reports on it every single... I think once a week, or certainly every day. She says that ARK bought more Tesla for $27 million. ARK has several different funds. The ARKK, ARK1, they bought it for $23 million, so they used to be at 7.33% Tesla as part of their portfolio, and now it's 7.5%. It could move from number three to number two position in the ARKK fund. In the ARKW, they bought $4 million worth, so instead of 4.56, it's now 4.75%, and it's still the number five position in that fund. They have been as high as 11%. I think they try to maintain no higher than 10%, but they've been at that 10% and over mark in the past.
That's right, and that's part of their problem. Alexander did a full exposé on them one time. Their issue is that they have this rule of 10%, and the problem is that they have all these other smaller stocks as well. When the smaller stocks do well, they have to sell. When Tesla does well, they have to sell Tesla. So they always have to sell Tesla no matter what's happening, and that's this weird dynamic.
Alexander had this point, so her thoughts were: why are they doing this, and are they going to buy more? She says that usually they dollar-cost average into a position, so this could be the first day of many. Maybe this is what they're doing, just starting now. And it is the end of the year, so Alexander was saying maybe they're just cleaning up the portfolio for year-end. There are six trading days left. The other interesting thing is that Cathie Wood has announced she's going to do an X Space with Elon, so she is going to be able to interview Elon. Maybe there's something more to that. What are your guesses about what might be happening here?
Where I part company with ARK Invest is that they have a high confidence in cyber... I'm too old for a cyber. I disagree with some of their positions on cyber. I just hope they're not going to talk with Elon about cyber. I hope they focus on Tesla, on AI, and on X.
Wait, what are you referring to about cyber? Did I say cyber? I mean the so-called modern currency, crypto.
Yeah, I'm talking about crypto. They have a focus on crypto, and I part company with them on this modern currency. Not necessarily the need for crypto, but I have great respect for Bitcoin. Most of the other coins, including Ether, I don't have much confidence in. The problem with Bitcoin is security, the problem of the wallet, and the problem of maintaining it. I don't have a lot of confidence in that, and I just hope we don't spend a lot of time with Elon on that subject in the interview.
Right. It looks like she sent out a post saying she's going to interview Elon and asking what questions people want. They're going to talk about space, X, and of course AI. For sure she's going to talk about robotaxi. That's the big research, and that's where their big bet is. What's interesting about ARK is that their vast thesis for Tesla, and they're one of the biggest bulls, is robotaxi. Of course it hasn't come to fruition, but they haven't yet added Bot or AI. So I'm wondering if that's why they're buying now: they're realizing Tesla is an AI company, and that's one of the major topics they're going to talk about.
Yeah, I think we're going to see a lot of their year-end research for next year coming out early next year, and I think you'll see in that research a focus on xAI, a focus on Dojo. Following their analysis, listening to some of their podcasts, and reading their material, I think they're very high on all three of those subjects. So you're going to see a lot more conversation and mention of Tesla in that conversation. Hopefully we'll see something about xAI and Tesla emerge, because I'm hoping there's some exchange of shares between those two companies in the coming year. I'm a big believer, and hopeful for that too, that Tesla investors should get a piece of xAI shares. And we're certainly going to see Grok embedded in the cars and in the Bots.
Did you see this? There was a job description on Tesla's career page with a line about Dojo as a service. They didn't exactly say "Dojo service," but they said we need to build global APIs that will bring Dojo to the masses. Elon did mention Dojo as a service in the last shareholder call, sorry, earnings call. So there's no doubt in my mind it's on their mind, but we're a year away from anything like that on the business side, maybe more than a year.
This is great. Cathie Wood buying more Tesla. It's a small thing, not a huge purchase, but it's a little bit of a reversal from what they did last year. You also said something about ARK not being just an investor, that they also trade. Tell me more about that.
They do, and they've made quite a lot of money trading in the past. They will sell when they think Tesla is a little bit beyond the number the market will be comfortable with, and they will buy it back when that number is below what they think the current market assessment is. They completely called Nvidia wrong, right? They sold it just before it took off. I think it's fair to be critical of some of their buys. I don't understand some of their investments, for example Doccsign. I was very uncomfortable with that investment, and with their investment in Zoom. I liked the product and the company, but it was way overvalued, and I think their valuation was way over the ski. You can't win them all. But I have very high respect for their work in biotech, and I'm invested in their biotech fund because I don't understand that field at all, and I feel they have a grasp on it. I think it has real potential to realize unrealized value, so I'm excited about that.
I also like their valuation model for Tesla. A lot of people criticize the Monte Carlo method, but I think it's one of the best tools for evaluating a company. It's severely misunderstood. People take the extreme cases at the tails and say, "Look how ridiculous this number is." Well, of course it's ridiculous. That's what probabilities do at the long end of the tail. So I have a lot of respect for them, and their research on AI is fantastic, topline, the best in the market by far.
So they've called it wrong. Unfortunately, if you had invested in their stock five or ten years ago, you'd be underwater today. But their thesis is disruptive innovation, so there are going to be losses, and then if one hits, it's going to be massive. For us Tesla investors, we shake our heads: why would you sell Tesla? Of course it's been flat, it's been done. But if they start buying now, maybe they can redeem themselves when Tesla eventually skyrockets back up. If they didn't have the 10% limit on their fund, they'd be in a very, very good position right now, like Ron Baron. That's exactly what Ron Baron did. He went back to his shareholders. I'm invested in his Founders Fund. I think it's the best fund in the market right now, no question about it. I love that fund and I love him as an investor. For folks who are interested, I did an interview with Alexander Merz where she reviewed the big whale institutional investors investing in Tesla, Ron Baron, ARK, and others. You can learn more about that.
This is great. You should bring Ron Baron on. That would be a really good conversation.
I would love to do that. I've been able to get ARK Invest, not Cathie Wood herself but Tasha Keeney, and almost anybody who appears on CNBC has now appeared on this show too, so it's starting to happen, and a few more are scheduled. I'll petition Ron to come on your show if you can.
Please, yes. Larry, you are amazing, and we're very, very fortunate to have you share your knowledge once a week. Thank you for doing that. Again, follow Larry on X at Tesla Larry.
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