저자: LarryGoldberg · 외국인
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테슬라 주가는 과거 오랜 횡보 후 급등하는 패턴을 보여왔으나 2024년 경기 둔화와 금리 인하 효과는 불확실하다. 금리 인하가 테슬라에 유리하다는 Gary Black 주장에 대해 Larry는 경기 둔화 동반 가능성을 지적하며 단일 요인으로 판단하지 말라고 함. 내년 자동차 판매는 보합 이하, 성장주도 저성장 예상이나 AI주(테슬라, 엔비디아, 마이크로소프트)는 예외. 테슬라 주가 급등 시점은 FSD, 로봇, 25k 저가차 발표에 달려 있음. 장기 보유 권장, 단기 매매는 급등일을 놓칠 위험이 큼.
다듬은 글
so might Tesla stock be set for a major jump like a slingshot this seems to be the pattern if you look at how the stock has behaved over the last 14 years since his IPO today we're going to review Tesla's stock movement pattern what to expect for 2024 and more importantly we'll review the most compelling chart that investors need to be following the market expectations for the federal fund rate and we'll explain why so today we have Larry Goldberg with us he's a long-term investor in Tesla he's a multi- entrepreneur thank you so much Larry appreciate you joining me thank you for having me hbert so you've been following the IPO from the Tesla for quite a long time now and um obviously the economy is one of the things you're very closely following so has Gary black so let me start off with his tweet he says probably the most compelling chart for investors to buy Tesla okay lower interest rates provide double benefit for Tesla so this is the federal fund rate that's falling here this is the expectation we'll look at it closely but basically he's saying that there's multiple benefits if the interest rates fall specifically for Tesla's stock one is it reduces the chance that Tesla will need to continue cutting EV prices again interest rates uh impact the monthly payments that car buyers need to put in part of the reason why they have to uh cut prices to be able to reduce that if this is reduced then they Tesla can even maybe raise prices and then obviously as interest rates fall maybe we're heading into a boom Market long duration stocks benefit most this is the the growth markets and then uh money will start flowing again to the growth uh things so what what's your uh thinking about this potential here it's looks like the 2023 here we are the uh left and it looks like that he you know this Federal fund rate is looking for the first cut to happen in April and then continuously down till December 24th uh next year that's how we're going to see this cut and even all even further the following Years big time cuts um some people are even calling for cuts happening now in December 23 so what's your thoughts on this uh con concept you know there are multiple different factors um in to that affect the stock price and interest rates are a very important factor but interest rates drop for multiple reasons and one of the reasons is dramatically slowing economic activity and when economic activity slows very often stock prices go down so when you have multiactor impacts it's impossible to look at you know the one one factor as a controlling Factor now interest rates are very important I agree but interest rates declining in a declining economic climate is does not mean that growth stocks are going to climb sometimes it means they're going to decline very sharply so I would I would say that when we look at these factors we should not focus too tightly on a single factor I personally think that we're in for a rough ride next year economically and so I think that uh in general uh vehicle sales are going to be flat if not in Decline and so I think that stock prices are going to be you know even for growth stocks are going to be pretty uh pretty low growth for next year except for AI stocks and I would put Tesla and Nvidia Microsoft uh as the three leading contenders uh to you know know to to go against the the the grain of where the Market's going so I'm very negative about the market next year but quite positive about Tesla but as to a very rapid rise you know one of the historic jumps in the stock Tesla stock price not so much okay that's fair I just did a show though very recently about a number of people now who are saying that they expecting a boom next year because several reasons one is that we've been in a recession for the last several years you're correct though Elon is still predicting maybe that's going to be a soft Landing maybe a recession next year so that's not off the table but uh the AI boom is real it's coming into place and um and then the other thing is that there's a short Celler squeeze for the ages so that you know as now we're turning and usually they say that the short seller uh when they get squeezed and they get out of the the playing the playing field that sets it up for the boom and then finally there's all this money that's sitting in the sidelines that's been sitting for many years now and they're ready to come in and that could explain maybe economic boom so but like you said Tesla is a bit of a different animal they're they're an automaker so they're going to be affected by that but they're also on AI play and so maybe it's hard to say right yeah yeah a lot depends on the timing um and the uh the you the announcements about the timing in connection with firstly um the robot I mean that I think is a very very important moment yeah the timing of FSD those going to be very important moments as well how well the new version of FSD does I think they're going to be a few bumps in the road before it really shows its metal and then uh you know above and beyond that is announcements or some indication of what's happening to the 25k car if you take all of if you take those three controlling elements you know that's going to decide the the the direction of the Tesla stock and how rapid it rises the economic decline early next year particularly in China is going to have an impact across the markets as such and will influence Tesla stock but those three Tesla specific issues are going to really determine when and to what degree Tesla departs from the rest of the market that's my view anyway yeah that's a very good point I agree completely there so let's uh take a quick look here at other charts I'm going to get right into Tesla stock specifically how it's been moving but in the meantime let's look at the mag 7 so this is a chart showing the Ford PE ratio for the Magnificent 7 and currently it's slightly below average going back to 2015 now even though they say it's below average right from 2015 but yeah you can see that there's you know this big giant swings here this is probably an artificial jump but it also kind of says that maybe you know I mean I'm going to you could look at this as glass you could look at it as a pessimistic look that this was just like you you thought you saying this is just an artificial kind of thing but it also could mean that hey you know if the AI boom is real then the PE ratios are kind of you know fairly valued now and it can still go up um what's your thinking like for me I'm going this is more likely to go up than it might be going down I think it's likely to go sideways I you know I take these these charts with a pinch of salt firstly this chart is very limited in terms of time yeah and the time so if you go from 2015 to 2020 you're looking at an artificially low rate of interest incredibly low rate of interest historically low rate of interest going back to you know the the turn of the the 19th the 20th century so I I don't regard this as you know that valid and then the peak was clearly the pandemic Peak when everybody had huge cash balances huge I mean unprecedented cash balances in their bank so by and large what you're looking at isn't artificial chart and and if you go back another 10 years things would be very different but then of course there wasn't such a thing as The Magnificent Seven so yeah I don't think that looking at this chart is telling us much of anything now the AI boom is real it's going to have a huge impact there's going to be swings and roundabouts on that you know there's going to be oh it's not so good anymore things aren't really happening and then suddenly it really happens these are very difficult to predict moments uh of you know stock market reflecting real economy and so on and so forth but I would say that you know investing in valid AI stocks are a really good play and I think that you know Nvidia clearly is one of those Tesla is clearly one of those Microsoft clearly one of those Microsoft by the way is the big winner of this whole brewha over you know open AI you know it's almost an unbelievable failure in in in board governance unbelievable failure one of the failures of the century it and it points to this idea of you know filling boards with people who are filled with missions that are ex exogenous to the company's um you know true mission okay wonderful so this next segment here let's take a look at Tesla's stock and I I actually don't believe so much in you know stock astrology looking at the movements but um I think if we'll talk about it right after we see the stock movement I think that it it speaks to kind of how Tesla is continuing to build fundamentals inventing Innovation while the stock follows and then eventually catches up that I believe but let's take a look at how Tesla stock has moved over the age so this is the entire trading history of Tesla stock since IPO in 2010 and if you look at this um you can see that okay it was kind of flat for so long and then there was a massive jump then it was flat then a jump flat jump now it's actually a decline now you know does this mean that it's going to jump now or whatever who knows but that's sort of the typical pattern that we're looking here I just did it much more cleany cleaner here from um you know just looking at all the entire history of Tesla's stock really flat for many many years just a bump here of course it looked significant then but then massive jump massive fall and now we're kind of like in this up and down period and again like you said it's all affected by economy market uh interest rates all these things and uh you know what's happened this is the last five years um since 2019 um just to be you know very very volatile and then here's another look at this so you can see that uh you know fell jumps and now we're long period of falling maybe we're ready for another jump what's interesting is elon's own evaluation so he tweeted this out on April of this year and he said there have been several extended periods of flatness followed by rapid Rises to new plateaus and then Jason debolt said that was basically F you know Tesla was basically fat for 10 out of 13 years since IPO 2010 to 2013 2014 2019 2020 23 the majority of the 126x returns in Tesla happened in just 3 years out of the 13 Years 2013 2019 2020 so that's kind of a pattern and only in a few weeks of those years this is why you cannot be trading in and out of the stock because you'll miss one of the breakout days that provide the most returns you know that that that remark by Jason could you put it back on the screen please yeah yeah that is the wisest thing I mean Jason is a very wise guy and you know I don't necessarily agree with all that he says and sometimes I disagree with him quite strongly but I have a lot of respect for the guy and that's the wisest piece of advice I've seen on Tesla stock for a long long time if you don't own Tesla stock and maintain your ownership of Tesla stock and if you trade in an out of Tesla stop you are making a huge mistake if you want to invest in Tesla buy the stock put it away and stop worrying about the stock price on a day-to-day basis because you're right there are times where it spurts when there's a whole re realization by the market of what is happening in Tesla and it's unpredictable when that happens I know your charts show these jumps and it's very hard to really uh derive from those stocks a pattern for the future because you know Tesla's inventions and Tesla's developments and and Tesla's um 4A into new markets all of these things are happening at different periods of time and in different speeds so it would it's really impossible to say yep it's going to happen at that point but what is possible to say what should be possible to drive is yes it is GNA happen so Jason's right hold the stock put it away this is not stock advice this is not advice this is just my reading of you know the best way to hold to to to to derive benefit out of tesm amazing inventiveness yeah so you and I are both long-term investors We Believe very much that we have the same philosophy we don't trade you you might do some of it but basically it's like you know buy a chunk hold on to it for long term okay the complaint about Tesla stock is very very volatile it goes up it goes down it gets affected by rates that makes it a very interesting stock to trade and I would separate the trading of Tesla stock from the investment in Tesla stock two different two different animals entirely yes that's why some people can be successful in trading Tesla stock but like you say it's hard to know because it is affected by these you know daily in the interest rates affect the car sales but what what I look at as a product manager as a company owner and your company owner is I look at the company Tesla and I see that every single day that goes by there is movement there's progress forward with Innovation with factories being built with a new car being released it might be late but they have then countered that with inventions like FSD or the bot and the energy so as these continue and the stock Falls like people make fun of my chart my Milestone table of 2022 and they go look at your 2022 chart you list out all the milestones and look at the stock it fell and so they're going see there's no correlation and then I go okay well let's take a look at the 23 2003 to 2021 chart and you can see that a stock skyrocketed right so in 2022 it fell but all those Milestones did happen and here we are in 2023 we've got the Legacy auto manufacturers capitulating so competition has not come in 2023 and it's not likely to come in 20124 in the meantime Tesla's continuing to hit these Milestones stock is still fall absolutely but at some point you'll be recognized for the bot you'll be recognized for energy you'll recognized for AI you'll be recognized for FSD these things will happen then it'll do the jump absolutely rated as a new kind of company right now it's an auto company at some point it's going to be rated his new company now like you said I we don't know when but if they're if they continue to make movement like are they still progressing if they falter like the delay in a cybertruck absolutely that's a concern a delay in a model too maybe you know they can't build a new factories those things matter um maybe they fail in some new technology but at the end of the day what we're seeing is continued progress and things are still looking quite good in all these aspects so yeah yeah I you know the um there's a lot of impatience by Tesla investors on Tesla milestones and that results in predictions that are always too early and you know I I understand it I want to see the 25k car roll out of the factory tomorrow I want to see an announcement on you know all of these things are true but you know if you compare Tesla to any of the other car companies you get a sense of just how much they've sped the process so and and you know the truth is there's been a pandemic which has really you know made made life very difficult I mean I I have spoken to some Tesla folks that told me some War Stories of what they went through to maintain their supply chains in the pandemic and it really you know it's amazing what they were able to do so I I agree with you I if you don't hold Tesla stock and you you're you know intend to buy it and one day you wake up and and the stock has climbed by 5x or 10x that's on you okay it seems to be the pattern don't know if that's going to hold but I think the reason why that's the pattern is because people they because they're they keep inventing innovating and then so then at some point that Innovation becomes recognized right awesome thank you so much Larry follow him on act a tessla lary he has like prank regularly he's he does some deep dive great um tweets and posts that he does where he gives you some uh new analysis thank you Larry talk to you soon
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