저자: DavidTepper · 외국인
요약 보기
데이비드 테퍼 포트폴리오 상위 10개 종목을 분석하는 영상. 테퍼는 2024년 1분기 기준 Magnificent Seven 일부(엔비디아 제외 다수) 비중을 줄이고 중국 주식을 저점에서 매수. 알리바바 최대 비중(14.19%), 알파벳·아마존 등 빅테크는 GF밸류 대비 고평가로 제시. 영상은 종목별 과거 매매 이력과 GF밸류 괴리를 설명하며, 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
I am the animal at the head of the pack. You try. OK. Usually it is. And, as I said, I'll either get eaten or I'll find some tasty grass . David Tepper owns 36 stocks in his portfolio worth $6.7 billion. In this video, we'll look at its top 10 positions, starting with number 10—Baidu . David Tepper's position in Baidu is currently worth $199 million.
This represents 2.84% of his portfolio. He bought the company's stock during three different quarters and sold it four times. With its latest average purchase price of $119, it is down about 7% compared to the purchase period in Q2 2023. Baidu is a $32 billion Chinese tech giant whose shares are trading $16 above their 52- week low.
The company is called the " Chinese Google" and owns 84% of the country's search engine market . The company looks very strong in terms of its ability to generate cash flow and trading volume relative to the Graham number. That's why GuruFocus' valuation for the company today is $138 per share. That's $30 above the current price, suggesting the company is undervalued by up to 21%.
Baidu shares are owned by five super investors, four of whom bought them in the last quarter. Among them are Michael Berry and Howard Marks , as well as a significant addition to the position from David Tepper. It's been a while since analysts were optimistic about China, but now they've set a price target of $143 per share, implying about 30% upside potential.
David Tepper is a billionaire and hedge fund manager. He is the owner of the NFL team Carolina Panthers and the founder of one of the most successful global hedge funds in the world—Appaloosa Management. Tepper founded the firm 26 years ago and is said to have delivered an average of 25% annual returns since then.
Tepper specializes in distressed debt, public equities and fixed income markets worldwide. Although most of his investments are not disclosed in 13F reports, his stock portfolio has delivered excellent returns. Tepper acts opportunistically in investing and often follows a contrarian strategy , which we will see later when considering the rest of his positions.
If historically I can look back and see, well, there are other animals that follow me. They don't necessarily follow me that quickly. Sometimes there are no other animals around when we do something. Recently, Tepper's hedge fund significantly reduced its stakes in several " Magnificent Seven" stocks and instead began buying Chinese stocks when they hit multi-year lows.
Even after this rebalancing, we see that he still has significant investments in technology in both the US and China. In ninth place we have Advanced Micro Devices, better known as AMD. This represents 3.82% of Tepper's portfolio, and his stake is valued at $268 million. Tepper began buying AMD in the second quarter of 2023.
Since then, he has made a profit of about 58% and has been reducing his stake in the company over the past three quarters. In the last quarter, Tepper sold 18.9% of his AMD shares, making a profit of about $70 per share. Today, AMD is a $263 billion business, with shares trading $50 below its 52- week highs.
After almost going bankrupt during the global financial crisis, their shares skyrocketed. Over the past 15 years, they have grown more than a hundredfold . AMD is a semiconductor company specializing in processors and graphics cards. They outsource production to TSMC, focusing on chip design. That's why they're present in consumer hardware like the Sony PlayStation and Microsoft Xbox.
Today, AMD shares are owned by four large investors, and three of them reduced their positions in the last quarter. AMD's current valuation looks very high compared to their ability to generate cash flow. That's why GF Value's valuation is $116 per share. This is $50 less than the current share price, indicating that the company is significantly overvalued.
In eighth place we have Oracle. It's a database technology giant valued at $336 billion , just $6 below its annual highs. Oracle is a $ 284 million asset in Tepper's portfolio, representing 4.05% of the total. The average purchase price is $111 per share, and he increased his stake in Oracle by 73.6% in the last quarter.
At the moment, it has earned him an 11% profit. Oracle is the first company in David Tepper's portfolio to pay a dividend. The dividend yield is currently 1.29%. They increased their dividend by over 17% last year and have done so for the past 10 years. Oracle shares recently jumped 5% amid a possible $10 billion cloud technology deal with Elon Musk's company, XAI.
Oracle was one of the first software giants in Silicon Valley. It was one of those companies whose shares collapsed during the dot-com bubble in 2000. Considering all history, if you didn't buy during the " bubble", the investment has yielded excellent returns for shareholders. However, today the company's fundamentals do not seem to justify its current market valuation.
Guru focus is valued at $111 per share. That's $13 below the current share price, suggesting that Oracle may be moderately overvalued. Oracle is in the portfolios of 12 super investors, and it is the 18th most popular stock among them. These investors were divided on the business: Ter and two others bought shares in the last quarter, while five others sold.
PDD Holdings— next on our list at number seven, it makes up 4.37% of Tera's portfolio, worth $37 million today. This is a company he has been actively adding to his portfolio since the second quarter of 2023 . Most recently, in the first quarter of 2024, it increased its stake in this Chinese e-commerce giant by 171%.
If you look at the timing of these deals, Ter probably made a profit of around 42%. PDD Holdings, which owns Temu and Pinduoduo, is worth $199 billion and is trading just $5 below its 52- week high. The company has more than doubled from its lows. Today, PDD's valuation includes significant growth expectations .
Therefore, the value of GF is $177 per share, which is $30 above the current market price. This is true, even though it is not consistent with the company's current ability to generate cash flows. Only one other super investor owns PDD Holdings or Pinduoduo, and that's Rob Winall. He increased his stake by 46% in the first quarter of 2024, and it represents 9% of his portfolio.
Alphabet, Google's parent company, ranks sixth on our list with a $368 million stake, which is 5.24% of its portfolio. Since Alphabet's first purchase in the fourth quarter of 2015, Ter has bought shares in 11 more quarters and sold in 21 other quarters. He was very active about this position. Overall, he made a profit of almost 279%.
He started his last position at Alphabet in the first quarter of 2023 . After that, he increased it over the next two quarters, and in the last two quarters he sold shares. These recent sales have come on the back of Alphabet's rising stock price, which is why it still remains a significant part of his portfolio.
Alphabet is among the five largest companies in the world, and its market capitalization today is $2.2 trillion. It is trading at its all-time highs. It was in 2024 that Alphabet announced its first dividend in history. It currently pays a modest dividend yield of 0.45% and repurchases about 3% of its shares.
This is enough to provide Alphabet with a shareholder return of 3.37%. That's not bad for a tech giant whose shares are trading at all-time highs. Still , Alphabet's valuation may look ambiguous. They look decent on earnings, but are slightly ahead of their historical performance and cash flow generation capabilities.
Nevertheless, there is no doubt that this is a very high quality business. Although, perhaps, Alphabet is moderately overvalued now. GF's current fair value is $150 per share. This is about 19% below their current market price. Across both share classes, Alphabet is the most popular company among super investors.
Today, 25 of them have shares in this company, and they are led by Li Lu, who is called the Chinese Warren Buffett. Now let's move on to the top five from Nvidia. This is a $49 million investment, which represents 5.82% of his portfolio. Ter has an average purchase price of $316 per share. Based on the closing price in the first quarter of 2024, when he sold the shares, he nearly doubled his stake in the company.
Like another company from the "big seven", Google, Nvidia is also one of the largest technology companies in the world. Today, their market cap is $2.32 trillion, and they are trading just $26 below their 52-week highs. In the last year alone, they have more than tripled. This is incredible . Meanwhile, as the price rises, they continue to buy back shares and even pay very small dividends.
Together, this gives investors only a small return on equity. Similar to the other semiconductor stock we looked at, AMD, Nvidia's long-term chart looks crazy. Today, Nvidia's stock price is built on huge expectations for growth. That's why it seems that the company is unable to justify such assessments on almost any indicator.
Six different super investors own Nvidia shares. The two largest owners reduced their positions in the last quarter. Although they were recently joined by Lee Ainslie and Samantha McLemore. Even if the company can sustain huge growth in the future, there are many uncertainties. GFU's fair value is estimated at $773 per share, almost $200 below their current price.
Would you guess? In fourth place we have another promotion from the " Big Seven". This is Meta Platforms. Meta makes up 7.55% of Tera's portfolio and is valued at $530 million. Ter had a rather interesting history with this company: he sold a significant amount of shares at the very bottom, and then bought more when the price rose.
Recently, when the company hit its 52-week and all-time highs, Ter was a seller of Meta stock. It reduced its share by 39.3% in the last quarter alone. Ter probably more than doubled his money thanks to his investment in Meta. As one of the " Magnificent Seven" stocks, Meta is one of the most important and valuable technology companies in the world.
Today, its market capitalization is $1.27 trillion, and it is trading $50 below its 52-week highs. This is even four times higher than the lows of October 2024. Like another digital advertising giant, Google , Meta also announced a dividend this year. Right now, that's a very modest return, and they're still diluting shareholder equity by a large amount.
So, they have negative returns for shareholders. Meta looks pretty good compared to past performance and ability to generate free cash flow. The key for the company is to sustain this growth and ensure that it is sustainable in the future. Now, if we give it a more moderate assessment compared to the past, it doesn't look so attractive.
That's why after a huge rebound , when Meta was potentially very undervalued, the company looks overvalued today. With a GF value of $361 per share, Meta is the fifth most popular stock among super investors. 23 of them have it in their portfolios. And this list is headed by Rob Benol, Chase Coleman and Pat Dorsey.
Number three on our list is the largest company in the world. This is Microsoft, which accounts for a share of $588 million. This is 8.38% of Tera's portfolio as of today. He bought Microsoft shares every quarter of 2023. And at the beginning of 2024, it reduced its share by 17.6%. 6%. We'll see where he reallocated that capital when we look at position number one later in the video.
As the largest company in the world today, Microsoft has a market capitalization of $3.13 trillion and is trading just $9 below its 52 -week highs. Microsoft isn't always perceived that way, but it's actually a great stock for dividend growth. They have been increasing their dividend for 19 consecutive years, and today the yield is 0.71%.
This includes dividend growth of over 10% in the last year alone. Since its IPO, Microsoft has been the best- performing stock of all time. Despite this, its valuation is ahead of fundamentals, and it seems that the company will have to catch up to them to provide a decent return for shareholders. As an individual stock, Microsoft is a favorite of super investors.
32 of them have it in their portfolios, and it is no surprise that the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation trust tops the list. Terry Smith, who is called the British Warren Buffett, also has a 12% stake in this company . That may be true, but you may only see average returns in the future. Microsoft currently looks about 10% overvalued with a GF Value of $387 per share.
Number two on our list is our latest promotion from the Magnificent Seven list. This is Amazon.com, which accounts for 10.08% of Terry's portfolio worth $77 million. Terry bought Amazon shares starting in the fourth quarter of 2022 and continuing through the first quarter of 2024. Recently, in the first quarter of 2024, he sold 3.1% of his shares.
This earned him a profit of over $61 per share. Amazon is a company with a market value of $1.91 trillion, whose shares are trading just $5 below their annual high. This is not news, but Amazon is one of the best- performing companies since its IPO. All seven of these tech giants have been phenomenal investments throughout their history.
Amazon's valuation today only looks reasonable when compared to its past multiples. 23 different super investors own Amazon shares. This is the fifth most popular stock among super investors. Terry is one of six investors who have a double-digit stake in Amazon. As with Microsoft or Google, there may still be a lot of sustainable growth built into Amazon's business.
However, the company still appears to be trading above its intrinsic value. The GF Value indicator is $156, which suggests that Amazon is overvalued by about 18%. Terry's main asset is one of the most controversial stocks on the market, but it is a favorite among value investors. At number one we have Alibaba.
This is an asset worth $996 million, which is 14.19% of his portfolio. Terry's average purchase price for Alibaba shares is $79, and he recently purchased 6.9 million shares in the first quarter of 2024. Alibaba is a Chinese e- commerce and cloud computing giant worth $222 billion. Since the lows in April 2024, the company's shares have risen by more than $20.
Alibaba shares are owned by 10 super investors, five of whom continue to buy them. The only reduction was from the Daily Journal Corporation as they are reducing the portion of the portfolio previously managed by Charlie Munger. Alibaba has the best shareholder returns of all the companies on our list.
In the first quarter of 2024, they began paying a substantial dividend of 3.01%. Combined with a 3.58% share buyback, they provide a 6.6% return to shareholders. This is a very strong indicator for a company in such a state. Despite the recent rise, Alibaba shares are still 72% below their all-time high reached in 2020.
The company is trading at around its intrinsic value , which looks good compared to its ability to generate cash flow. They are also trading well below their historical multiples. Today, the GF value of this business is around $98.50 per share. That's about $10 above the current share price. If you want to learn about more opportunities in the market, watch the following video and subscribe to our investment tools.
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