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2023년 증시 전망 영상. 2022년 S&P500 20% 하락 후 금리 인상이 2023년에도 이어질 것이라는 전제 아래 찰리 멍거의 투자 조언을 소개함. 결론: 하락장에서 무엇을 어떻게 투자할지에 대한 멍거의 합리적·절제된 접근을 소개하는 영상이며, 구체적 가격 예측은 없음. 멍거의 분산투자 관점: 완벽한 분산보다 좋은 자산 몇 개(약 4개)를 고르는 것이 낫고, 20개 이상은 현실적으로 어렵다는 주장. 멍거의 조언: 여러 분야를 떠도는 투기적 접근보다 합리성과 규율이 중요하며, 대부분의 사람에게는 금융 업계 진입 자체가 성공 가능성이 낮다고 봄. 금융 산업 비판: 쉬운 돈은 나쁜 행위자를 끌어들이며, 현대 금융은 대공황 이후 시기의 보수적 금융과 달리 투기적이고 위험하다는 견해. 기대치 관리: 적당한 성공에 만족하는 것이 행복에 더 낫다는 조언과, 지속적 학습이 장기 성과의 핵심이라는 메시지. 출연자 전망: 영상 자체는 2023년 금리 상승 지속과 하락장을 전제하나, 개별 자산의 방향 예측 발언은 명시되지 않음.
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foreign ER is undoubtedly one of the most esteemed figures in the world of value investing he's been Buffett's right-hand man for decades and is still the vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway at the age of 99 but as many of you may know he's also a very successful investor in his own right with a net worth of 2.3 billion dollars a large part of his investing success has been due to his rational thinking and his ability to tell it like it is and to our benefit he's done this quite a bit in recent years as a result of the market decline of 20 percent in 2022 inflation will remain extremely high and interest rates will continue to rise in 2023 let's examine Charlie munger's investment advice that pertains directly to the upcoming Year's investment environment welcome back at Financial Fortune your daily advisor that gives you news and tips for financial success just keep on watching this year it appears as though we'll be investing in a down Market as I mentioned the SP 500 fell 20 in 2022 due to interest rates being raised to 4.5 percent but in 2023 it does appear as though interest rates will continue to rise due to the fed reaffirming their goal to bring inflation back down to two percent so with our portfolios all down 20 after the rough tidal wave of 2022 will be investing in a down Market the first question is whether or not we should invest at this time is it worthwhile considering there may be more difficult times ahead take note of Charlie's strategy well it may be that you have to choose the least bad of your a bunch of options that frequently happens in human decision making and the mongers have Berkshire stock Costco stock Chinese stock suit lilu a little bit of Daily Journal stock and a bunch of apartment houses do I think that's perfect no do I think it's okay yes I think the great lesson from the mongers is you don't need all this damn diversification that's plenty of it you're lucky if you've got four good assets I think the finance professors and the the tell the idea that perfect diversification is professional investment if you're trying to do better than average you're lucky if you have four things to buy and to ask for 20 is really asking for egg in your beer it's it's very few people get can have enough brains to get 20 good Investments I think my way of thinking will work for anybody I'm trying to be very rational and disciplined so I think that much but to flit around the various careers and going to the other fellows professional territory and trying to outdo him and do all kinds of things like that I think will not work for most people and so I always tell I'm always being visited by a young man who say I I'm practicing law and I don't like it I'd rather be a billionaire how can I do it and I tell them well I'll tell you a story a young man goes to see Mozart and he says Mozart I want to start composing Symphonies and Mozart said how old are you and the guy says 22 and he says you're too young to do Symphonies and the guy says yes but you were 10 years old when you were composing some of these and Mozart says yes but I wasn't running around asking other people how to do it right so I think this floating around business is something not everybody should try yeah I think if I tried it again it might not have worked as well you said just figure out why were you were lucky yeah yeah I think I have some luck yeah well but I think there's more to it than that I mean where were you yes the combination of luck and skill that's what all good records are right so many of you now who want to be rich by going into Finance and of course that multitude is not going to all get rich and and of course 99 will be in the bottom 99 that's just the way it's going to work if I look at the people in my generation who were the Nerds who were patient and rational eventually did well who lived within their income and and worked at being sensible and and when they saw an opportunity grabbed it pretty fiercely and so forth and I think that the Lord for the new nerds of the world and the people who get ahead because of their star salesman or charismatic personalities I'm not one of those so I don't know how to do that so if you're not a nerd I can't help you and and I think that the odds are that most people who try to do Finance are not going to succeed and and there's a lot of Rich at excess in it because easy money will always attract wretched access it's just the nature it's like a bunch of oh animals feeding out like carcass in Africa by the way that's damage I chose on purpose and but it doesn't also I don't think it's so pretty and I don't think that modern Finance is so wonderful and in my day a lot of the finance people were more like engineers they were so chastened by the Great Depression and all The Wretched failure that they really tried to make everything super safe and it was a very different plodding place that just tried the people weren't trying to get rich they're trying to be safe this modern world is radically different and I'm not sure if I were starting out a new world in your world how well I would do it would be a lot harder than it was to get ahead in the world the way it was when I came up how are you my best advance I think you'll be happier if you reduce your expectations and if you try and satisfy them and by the way it's generally a very good idea it sounds silly but it's so obvious you know how many of us are fairly content with pretty moderate success that is worth knowing because that's what most of us are going to get the most good is a learning experience with See's Candy it just the power of the brand the unending flow of ever increasing money with no work sounds nice yeah it was and I'm not sure about the Coca-Cola we had in both the Seas I think that a life properly lived is a it's just learn learn all the time and I think birchers gained enormously from these investment Decisions by learning through a long long period every time you appoint a new person that's never had big Capital allocation experience it's like rolling the dice and I think we're way better off having done it so long and and but the decisions blend and the one feature that comes through is the continuous learning if we had not kept learning you wouldn't even be here you'd be alive probably but not here please leave a comment below and let me know which of Charlie's pieces of advice resonates with you the best if you loved the video please like it and if you want to see more please subscribe to the channel
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