저자: SteveEisman/MichaelBurry의견인용 · 외국인
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결론: 크레딧스위스 사태는 스위스 내 제한적 충격이며 미국 대형은행은 자본이 충분해 시스템 리스크 우려는 과장됐다고 본다. 이에 따라 금융주는 규제 변화가 불확실해 현 시점 투자 부적절. 인수 구조: UBS가 크레딧스위스를 약 32억 달러에 인수하는 거래로, 시가총액 49억 달러였던 2018년과 대비됨. 스위스중앙은행(SNB)이 1,000억 달러 유동성 지원. 투자은행 부문은 약 25% 규모로 축소 예정. 채권 보유자 손실(bail-in) 발생, 주주는 주당 0.76 스위스프랑 수준 보상. 비정상적 고수익 AT1 채권은 소멸될 것이라 봄. 추가 백스톱 가능성 존재, 파생상품 책임 이슈 언급. 시장 파급 전망: 유럽 신용시장과 은행 섹터의 반응을 주목. UBS 배당 중단 여부는 불분명하나 크레딧스위스 배당은 당분간 없을 것으로 봄. 대형 은행 평가: 미국 대형은행은 역사상 가장 높은 자본 수준. 유럽 은행은 상대적으로 자본이 약함. 크레딧스위스 파산 시 손실은 발생하지만 시스템을 무너뜨릴 규모는 아니라는 입장. 스위스 GDP(약 8,000억 달러) 대비 크레딧스위스 자산(약 5,000억 달러) 비율로 판단. 지역은행 문제: 실리콘밸리은행 실패는 장기 채권 평가손실과 편중된 예금 기반 때문. 규제 완화(Dodd-Frank 임계치 상향)는 문제였다는 견해. 스트레스테스트는 신용 리스크 중심이라 금리 리스크를 충분히 포착 못함. 투자 전략: 금융주는 규제 방향이 불확실해 '모르면 투자하지 말라'는 입장. 고성장 기술주 및 적자 성장주 상승기의 패러다임이 끝나고 TINA(대안 없음)가 종료됐다고 평가. 금리가 높게 유지되면 머니마켓펀드 등 현금성 자산 매력 증가. 국채·채권 일부 매입 고려 가능. 포트폴리오 다변화와 리스크 축소 권고, 반도체·기술 노출도 축소 권고. 경기 전망: 리세션 여부는 불확실. 여러 불확실 요인이 동시에 존재하므로 리스크를 줄이라는 결론.
다듬은 글
foreign UBS just paid 3.2 billion dollars to acquire Credit Suisse a bank that in 2018 had a market cap of 49 billion dollars we do have a deal and there are a couple of critically important things to take away in the first take one we have a bail in of bondholders this is what the market will focus on tomorrow morning when I got on the plane in Dubai this morning this was a billion dollar deal this afternoon in products it was a two billion dollar deal it's not a three billion dollar deal and it has a Lifeline 100 billion from The Regulators the SNB they're standing behind this and Colin Kelleher made it very very clear this is the man who steered Morgan Stanley through a bailout in the GFC he made it very clear we're not in the risk business we're a capital life model and the Investment Bank at Credit Suisse will be reduced to 25 approximately that is the size the backstop is in the liquidity is there systemic risk for now we'll see how we go over the next 12 hours for Nye this is a salvo at saving systemic risk it's critically important that we that we understand what at ones are which are the additional tier one Capital they were put in place as the fundamental backstop to another situation like this my first take on this is that the bailing is a message from the Swiss to say look somebody's got to take pain here the equity holders will will get a little bit of something in other words 0.76 Swiss Francs but the bondholders who get handsome yield for 81 those days are gone my question will be how the credit markets react tomorrow morning across Europe and most especially within the banking sector the other dynamics that you've got to keep in mind is this there is also a back stock if things go wrong and Kelleher made it very very clear that they're not in the business of trying to make losses they're going to look at the whole book the whole credit book the whole derivatives book they're on the hook for 5 billion and then the SMB comes back in and they're on the hook for nine after UBS so there are a myriad of things to keep in mind here I just want to put one other thing to the two of you which is this at the moment it looks as if no Dividends are to come from Credit Suisse I've got somebody screaming blah blah blah he'll get a lot more blah blah blah before I'm finished the bottom line is UB UBS is a dividend Bank of Choice but what I didn't hear in that news conference was that there's any pause cessation or temporary pause on the dividend from UBS Kelleher's chairman Ralph hammers is the CEO the king is dead long live the king and that King is UBS welcome to financial Fortune where we bring you the latest news and insights on the world of Finance in today's video opinions of two prominent investors who were involved in The Big Short during the 2008 financial crisis Michael burry and Steve Eisman have recently shared their thoughts on the current banking crisis particularly the situation with Credit Suisse investors like Michael Berry recently he made the following statement on Twitter quote the crisis could so very quickly there doesn't seem to be any real threat here another man featured in The Big Short Steve Iceman was recently heard on CNBC predicting that we will never see another 2008 again do you see any sort of a banking crisis unfolding here in the United States and or in Europe um you know my partners and I look this really carefully and I would say number one the large U.S banks are better capitalized and have less risk than they ever had in anyone's lifetime the European Banks while they're not as well capitalized or something better capitalized than they are that isn't to say there won't be paying if credit Swiss goes down but it's not it's not a no wait thankfully so the counterparty risks in terms of transmission mechanism that's that doesn't exist today no it does exist it does exist it's just I mean people have been pulling back from credit Swiss from a long time I mean if if you hear that the company goes bankrupt there will be losses it's not death defying losses but it'll be a problem it's just not it's not going to take down the system I remember in 2008 when everybody was trying to get bailed out you know if you looked at the U.S the size of US GDP was many multiples bigger than all the bank balance sheets combined we looked at credit Swiss today credit Swiss balance sheet is 500 billion the GDP of Switzerland is 800 billion so could Switzerland do something yeah they could do something it's not going to be easy not easy at all the other thing I would say about Switzerland unfortunately is they really don't have a lot of regulators so what they actually know is no I don't think they know a lot if you look at Germany there's what I've heard is there's like 500 Regulators in Deutsche Bank every day right um I think the numbers of regulators of the Swiss pack I could be wrong is like 250.
for the whole sector but that statement paired with the notion that that Credit Suisse might be too big to save is sort of a frightening well it's frightening and it's not franking it's going to be ugly right you know credits with I'll say euphemistically has been a problem child in the investment banking industry for as long as I can remember and it's always had cultural issues but um you know it'll get Unwound it'll be painful it's only going to be painful for Switzerland you know if if I I that we heard today that they maybe won UBS to take it over believe me UBS does not want to take it over that's for sure so I don't know how they're going to unwind it but they probably will have to I mean is it possible that they could save them maybe but you know the the quiet default swaps blew out to like 800 basis points that means you really can't fund yourselves I heard that they were offering six to seven percent deposit rates and in Asia and people were still pulling their money um and nobody will be a counterparty anymore that's more than bad yeah that's that's really bad so how would Switzerland will deal this it's anybody's guess I'm not in the room do you see weird that we're in a new era now for regional banks for what the model will be and how to think about the whole banking structure the whole sort of business of banking when President Trump passed that bill and raised the threshold of I think it was 50 to 250.
now I think that was bad I think Elizabeth Warren has a real valid point about it but I we looked we looked at the stress test for last year and the stress test for last year had about a line in it about Rising rates and the rest of the entire stress test was about credit so even if Silicon Valley had been in the stress test given what the stress test says I don't think The Regulators would have caught it they would have passed it and you know the stress test is basically fighting the last battle that battle has been won in the large Banks they're better capitalized their risk even with that capital is much narrower you know as Warren Buffett says when the tide goes out you see who's naked this is a different tide this is not a credit tied credit quality United States is really good this is a tide of a mistake which is a lot some of the regional Banks especially those that have a lot of deposits above 250 but long-term bonds at very very low levels and have massive Mark to Market losses that's why Silicon Valley failed also they failed because they had a very very concentrated type of deposit base which has a very big herd mentality all the regulations are probably going to get much more stringent making the banks much less profitable and that's not going to be clear for many many months so why be a hero because you have absolutely no idea what's going to happen would you say that the banking sector right now with the uncertainty given what will happen on a regulation front that financials are uninvestable right now I would say you know we were looking as a team at every single Bank and I would say given the change in the regulations the best you can say is you don't know and if you don't know you shouldn't play I think what's happening is we're moving from one Paradigm to another Paradigm so the Paradigm of the last several years has been rates are very low you're paid to take risk and you're actually paid to take a lot of risk so you know what did the best of the last 10 years high growth tech stocks and what did the best within high growth tech stocks super high growth Revenue stocks with negative earnings okay so what did the worst last year super high growth stocks with negative earnings now are people going to go back to that I don't think so especially if rates stay up so what I think is coming is Tina is dead number one I think you're going to have a much more Diversified portfolio you certainly can leave money in your money market fund because it's over four percent I'm not sure if it's over four percent tomorrow but more it's still around four which is fine I think over time you'll be able to buy some treasuries and buy some bonds and they're going to be a lot more themes than just Tech infrastructure bringing the supply chain back to the United States and you're going to need to manage risk a lot more than people have so you know people who have who's outperformed over the last 10 years Tech investors you know the group is now so volatile I think everybody should take their exposures down not that you should invest in Tech at all but you really should diversify more of your portfolio um take down your risk manage your risk tailor your portfolios to your clients one size does not fit all and given the fact that you know my team and my partners and I we go back every single day is there a recession is there not a recession I watch your show you've had people come on and say there is recession a month later they said it's not a recession it's um it's a very uncertain time because we've never had the Confluence of stuff that we have today and I think that argues for taking less risk and that concludes our video about the opinions of Michael burry and Steve Iceman on the current banking crisis particularly Credit Suisse it's always interesting to hear from investors who have a proven track record of identifying risks and opportunities in the market if you found this video informative please give it a thumbs up and consider subscribing to our channel for more updates and Analysis thanks for watching
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