저자: 찰리멍거 · 외국인
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결론: 멍거는 중앙은행의 대규모 통화 팽창과 정부 부채 증가에 우려를 표했고, 가치투자는 경쟁 심화로 기회가 줄었지만 시장 충격에 따른 기회는 여전하다는 취지다. 거시경제: 연준이 약 4조 달러 규모의 자산을 늘린 것에 대해 멍거는 극단적 조치라고 평가했다. 불황 대응에는 유효할 수 있으나 이후 재정 규율이 뒤따르지 않고 계속 돈을 찍어 쓰면 결국 큰 문제를 일으킨다고 경고했다. 정부 부채: 2차 세계대전 당시 전쟁채권 구매자들은 이후 인플레이션으로 구매력 일부를 잃었다. 국가 부채가 GDP 대비 약 120%까지 늘어난 사례를 들며, 돈 찍기로 표를 사는 행위는 결국 역효과를 낳는다고 봤다. 한계점이 어디인지는 모르나 그 지점에 가까이 가고 싶지 않다고 했다. 가치투자 전망: 가치투자자가 많아져 경쟁이 치열해졌고 투자 기회가 줄었으니 적게 버는 데 익숙해져야 한다는 것이 멍거의 조언이다. 버핏은 기회가 완전히 사라진 것은 아니며, 대규모 시장 변화로 생기는 열린 기회는 이전보다 더 자주 나타난다고 봤다. 시장 구조: 지난 58년간 어리석은 대규모 투자가 늘었고, 자금 조달이 쉬워져 부실 기업도 쉽게 자본을 모을 수 있게 됐다. 큰돈은 투자 자체보다 남에게 아이디어를 파는 데서 나온다는 지적도 있었다. 단기주의: 시장은 분기 실적 맞추기에 집중하는 단기 지향이 강하고, 5~20년을 보는 투자자에게는 오히려 유리하다는 견해를 밝혔다. 출연자 전망: 채널 영상의 해설 내용에는 종목별 가격 예측이 없고, 멍거 발언 중심이다.
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foreign I used to come to the virtual annual meetings on coach from Los Angeles and it was full of Rich stockholders and they would clap when I came into the coach section I really like that Charlie Munger Vice chairman and chief culture officer of Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett's right-hand man is noted for his humor and Candor in equal measure however this does result in some humorous one-liners just hold the goddamn stock but have we ever made an emotional decision I think it's gonna get tougher I think the best road ahead to human happiness is expect less in light of Charlie munger's recent comments on the state of the American economy and his predictions for Value investing we'll be covering all of his remarks in this video first of all what does Charlie think about the future of the American economy especially in light of the Federal Reserves roughly four trillion dollar money creation binge over the past several years does the current size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet concern you well I don't know where we're headed with all of this been very extreme I think that you could be pretty extreme in fighting depressions and so forth if you were versioned afterwards to a period of some discipline but some discipline but if you're going to just keep borrowing and get printing money and spending it I think eventually it causes bad trouble welcome to financial Fortune your trusted source for valuable insights and Analysis in the world of Finance in today's video we bring you a crucial warning from none other than the legendary investor Charlie Munger prepare yourselves as we delve into his latest predictions and insights specifically focusing on the 2023 stock market get ready to gain a deeper understanding of the potential risks and opportunities that lie ahead this is financial Fortune at some point printing money to buy votes will be counterproductive yep and we don't we don't know exactly where that comes and if something is going to be dangerous and unproductive you ought to keep it a fair distance away we paid a price in World War II I mean everybody school kids and everybody else myself included I'm with we bought our originally called war bonds and defense bombs and savings bonds and all that but but from 1940 due to 1944 or five you paid out 1875 and it got 25 back and every kid safe savings Samsung all that but when you got all through you know you had 120 percent of GDP in the national debt instead of 30 or 40 percent and we had a lot of inflation subsequently a lot so the people that really that bought those bonds and supported the war had a portion of their purchasing power taken away from them well there wasn't anything wrong with that particularly but when the country gets in the habit of doing that uh I don't think it's I think it's tough to tough to figure out where the breaking point is with Society but I don't think I want to come anywhere close to it we're bidding is subject to death but by it is a problem I wish we had a solution how do you envision the future of value investing in this new era well I'm glad to take that one I think value investors are going to have a harder time now that there's so many of them competing first a diminished bunch of opportunities so my advice to Value investors is to get used to making less and Charlie was been telling me the same thing the whole time we've known each other we we get all wonderfully because we are making less yeah well but that's because that mostly I think is because it's larger we were younger but I I would argue that that or there's gonna be plenty of opportunities new things coming along don't take away the opportunities what gives you opportunities is other people doing dumb things opportunities are shrinking but according to Warren they aren't completely gone businesses may be fairly priced or even overvalued most of the time but Major Market shifts that present us with unexpected openings are happening more frequently than I can recall when it comes to Value investing uncertainty is a blessing it's fascinating to see how Charlie and Warren arrive to similar conclusions using comparable thinking well the 58 years we've been running Berkshire I would say there's been a great increase uh and the number of people doing dumb things and they do big dumb things and the reason they do it to some extent is because they they can get money from other people so much easier than when we started so you could start 10 or 15 dumb insurance companies in the last 10 years and you could become rich if you were a Droid at it whether the business succeeded it or not and the underwriters got paid and the lawyers got paid and that creates if that's not on a large scale which it couldn't be done what 58 years ago you couldn't get the money to do some of the dumb things that we wanted to do fortunately uh and uh so I don't I think that investing has disappeared so much from this huge capitalistic Market that anybody can play in but that the big money is in selling other people ideas it isn't outperforming but if you're running small amounts of money I think I think the opportunities will be greater Charlie wouldn't you we budget an edge on that or not there there is so much money now in the hands of so many smart people all trying to outsmart one another and not promote one another getting more money out of other people and it's a radically different world from the world we started then and I suppose it will have its opportunities but it's also going to have some unpleasant episodes but they're trying to outsmart each other in arenas that you don't have to play I mean the world is overwhelmingly short-term focused and if you go to an investor relations call they're all trying to figure out how to fill those other sheet to show the earnings for the year and the management is interested in feeding them expectations that will slightly be beaten I mean that that is the world was made to order for anybody that's trying to think about what you do that should work over five or ten or Twenty Years and uh I I just think that I would love to be born today and go out with not too much money and hopefully turn it into a lot of money I would not like the thrill of losing my big pile into a small pot Just the Way It Is Well I like we agree on that incidentally okay we do you're one of the most most extreme lovers of the big pile and that wraps up our thought-provoking exploration of Charlie munger's new warning for the 2023 stock market we hope this video has provided you with valuable perspectives and insights to help you navigate the ever-changing world of Investments remember to like subscribe and hit the notification Bell to stay updated with our latest videos at Financial Fortune we're committed to empowering you on your financial Journey thank you for joining us today until next time may your fortunes align with wisdom and preparation this is financial Fortune signing off foreign
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