저자: 제이미다이먼 · 외국인
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결론: 다이먼은 은행 위기가 2008년 같은 전면 위기는 아니며 곧 해소될 것으로 보지만, 그 여파(규제 변화 등)는 수년간 이어질 것이라고 본다. 은행 시스템 안정성: 은행들은 유동성과 자본이 매우 풍부하고, 다음 분기 실적은 양호할 것으로 전망. 중소형 은행 문제는 SVB처럼 집중 고객 예금 이탈이 원인이며 다른 지역은행에는 같은 문제가 크지 않다. 퍼스트리퍼블릭: 30억 달러 지원 시도는 시간을 벌기 위한 것이었고 결과는 아직 불확실하다고 언급. 금리 전망: 단기 금리는 연준 결정에 달려 있어 예측 불가. 장기 금리는 글로벌 투자자 심리와 수급으로 결정되며 상승 가능성이 있어 '고금리 장기화'에 대비하라고 조언. 주택·모기지: 고금리로 저소득층의 주택 구매가 어려워졌다. 정부가 모기지 생산·서비스·증권화 비용을 줄이면 대출 금리를 0.5~0.75%p 낮출 수 있다고 주장. 규제: 규제 완화가 SVB 사태의 원인은 아니며, 중소형 은행 규제 완화 논쟁에서 민주당도 완화에 참여했다는 취지. 실패는 불가피하며 도미노 효과만 막으면 된다는 입장. 저소득층 정책: 근로장려세today 확대(자녀 요건 폐지 등)와 일자리 창출을 강조. 영상 자체: 채널 소개 및 구독 요청 위주이며 특정 투자 종목 언급은 없음.
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foreign banking system truly safe and secure yes I mean the banks have extraordinary liquidity extraordinary Capital when the report earnings next quarter the Earth is going to be quite good in my opinion I don't think this is that kind of Crisis that you're going to have it ongoing forever JP Morgan CEO Jamie dimon is certainly not one to be afraid of voicing his opinions in fact last year he caused a big stir on the world stage when he described an economic hurricane on the horizon in the United States I'm going to change the storm clouds out there because I look I'm an optimist you know I I said there's storm clouds they're big storm clouds there it's a hurricane welcome to financial Fortune the channel that brings you the latest insights and advice to help you navigate the complex world of personal finance in today's video we'll be looking at the expert opinions of Jamie dimon CEO of JP Morgan Chase we invite people in to learn about mortgages and saving money and starting a business and it's been unbelievable and I've been like 14 of the 16 or so we've also taken their Community manager we have 120.
that's worked so well we're putting them in a lot of different communities so uh it was just part of what we try to do to when we enter a town we have 30 percent of our branches or so in lower income neighborhoods and we just try to lift those neighborhoods and bring in all the things that JB Moore and Chase can do to help there's two things so those are huge numbers that we say you know 12 billion of affordable housing eight billion of mortgages but the end of the day it takes place at a local a local place the mortgage loan officer you know reaching out to people helping them through the progress getting them a homeowner's Grant if they need something like that so that's how it takes place but when you do it you know we're right across from Georgia State University there are businesses opening up around here partially because you have a branch in here and it lifts up the community but it's also good business and you want good business as these businesses come here they are they're hiring locally there are paychecks in the neighborhood and it lists up everybody so that's part of a job of a bank what's interesting though about this time exactly this moment that we're sitting down is we're in a rising interest rate environment and this is harder for folks to get mortgages you've lamented that reality especially for lower income individuals in this country right now do you think given the high prices of homes now the rising interest rate environment this American dream of owning a home is really no longer for a lot of folks I think we have to bring it back you know if you look at homes there for most people the way they start building family net worth and family wealth and there are a lot of things to do so you already see home prices are down in some places Builders already making concessions we do a lot of special things you know special purpose credit for sometimes in low-income neighborhoods I think the government can do a lot of things I've you know we talk about these things here but the government can do a lot of things to reduce the cost doing now absolutely what reducing production costs servicing costs origination costs securitization costs which would make the cost of a small mortgage but probably 50 to 75 basis points cheaper that alone is a lot of money a month that's a lot of money a month and makeup available to more people so and we try to take policies you know things we do here but also worry about what Washington can do to make it easier to accomplish are they listening to you I've been begging in this one for a long time I'm praying I'm begging I hope to listen to this uh it's so important and it's the other important thing is we're not doing it for JP Morgan it won't affect the future JP Morgan if we make mortgages more available to lower income folks around America it's so important for lower income America and so you know we won't stop pushing this one until we get it done like I think we should double the earned income tax credit and then there is Warren Buffett has been saying that for years so for the American public if you if someone's if a single parent is with two kids is making fourteen thousand dollars a year the government gives you six roughly if if you're don't have children give you about 600 my view is we need to get more income into the neighborhood so if you if you kind of add to that earning of tax credit I would get rid of the child requirement requirement or you get more money into the neighborhoods and that money will be well spent it will lift up those communities there'd be nothing like that and the other thing I remember is jobs bring dignity jobs bring better social outcomes you know jobs that first job because sometimes people make fun of the burger flipper job very often that burger flipper own ends up owning the restaurant I've done it exactly we've all done it and that first job that first one in the ladder have you done it no but I served in a restaurant yes we're just getting people to open an account we've got new account so you can open here start saving money thinking about it a lot of us had the benefit their mom or dad took us to a branch and we throw the first passport and then you see your money go from like 84.75 to 85 dollars and 17 cents it's like that was magic there's a God you know like interest and so people learn and we want that to take place here you know we don't want people to be afraid to walk into a branch here you know come as you are bring your kids you know learn what you're doing that's why the community manager is so important because a lot of people you know look at a bank and they're going to walk by they're they're that's not what they're comfortable with and we want this community very comfortable walking in here I just read your annual letter that just came out this week and let's dive into the banking crisis because you write a lot about it is the current banking crisis over I I this is not 2008.
okay this is a much more limited there are only a handful of banks that have this particular problem they'll eventually be resolved one way or another and I think then people should take a deep breath in a week or two a lot of these Banks can be reporting earnings I think they'd probably be pretty good the Federal Reserve made some you know bold dramatic move to help it easier for some of the issues they had and I'm hoping it will resolve you know rather shortly you're hoping but hoping but is the crisis over you wrote in your letter there will be repercussions for years to come well that's that's different I think those repercussions are regulatory like and you know acknowledge think obviously when you have a problem things need to change but you know I'm begging the regulars let's just take a deep breath there are hundreds of rules you know you have to be very careful what do you want in the banking system what do you want out how do you make it easier for Community Banks and Regional Banks how do you reduce their costs not increase their cost on the but also make it safe do you expect more Banks to fail this year I I don't know but if there are I don't honestly they'll be resolved and it'll probably be the last of them I think I think again near the end of this particular crisis and fewer financial institutions remember in 08 it was hundreds of Institutions around the world far too much leverage we don't have that huge problems in mortgage markets we don't have that this is nothing like that and the American public shouldn't think that this will resolve and then we should go look at you know what went wrong and fix it you know in the clean uh in the light of day well so then then what why is it if this is coming to an end is this a situation like you know Warren Buffett famously said only when the tie goes out do you learn who's been swimming naked were these Banks swimming naked yeah so I said there's hiding in plain sight everyone knew about uninsured deposits everyone knew about instrument exposure everyone knew about health maturity portfolios the only difference the only real difference was we called concentrated clients so Silicon Valley Bank had you know a handful of people who controlled 35 000 corporate accounts and they just left you know 140 billion dollars or something or of course a course of two days that's not happening other Regional Banks they don't have that issue nor do they have all these other issues so it was only a handful without much offsides but then what's going on with First Republic I mean you led the effort to swoop in 30 billion dollars from you and your fellow Banks to try to study First Republic and you've acknowledged we don't even know yet if that worked yeah so that was an attempt to try to resolve help give them time to resolve a situation we represent them so I really can't talk about any more than that and we hope it resolves one way or another so uh that'll come in the future but I don't I don't think this is that kind of Crisis that you're going to have it ongoing forever it will be now Warren Buffett said when the tide goes out you mentioned something else Rising rates is that tide going out and if that tide goes out a lot so I would tell people be prepared for higher rates I don't know that's going to happen but be prepared if you're not in that time you think the FED raises again in May well there are two rates one is the short raid I do not know what they're going to do and obviously they may not because you know Financial conditions but there's also longer rates and that has a different effect and that defend does not control directly that's controlled by Global Investors sentiment Supply and demand and that's gone bad for sovereign debt okay so you know to me yes you have a chance at long rates will be going up and people might get used to higher for longer I higher for longer get ready for that I believe that is a I think it has a high outcome than other people I'm not predicting it right is the American banking system truly safe and secure yes I mean the banks have extraordinary liquidity extraordinary Capital when the report earnings next quarter the earnings going to be quite good in my opinion they can handle not just one stress test but multiple ways of being stressed it's the big guys who have to abide by all those requirements I'm talking about the mid-size and little guys that don't anymore well they they have formal requirements than you think so I don't think it was the requirement and some people think that they were also done that rollback literally had nothing to do with it how do you know because they had the same internal liquidity requirements stress requirements reporting requirements supervisory requirements they made mistakes it was different if they were under 250 billion dollars in assets not as much as you think so all those Senators that are saying it was wrong to roll them back Democrats rolled it back too some of them those senators are wrong yeah you know look it's not again when you talk about regulations they're looking at one thing I'm looking at multiple others so they had high liquidity required environments High Capital requirements they met the requirements they had too much interest rate exposure and things should change but they were not out of line with super you know with regulations and it wasn't the regulatory change it was other things and by in life that's going to happen this notion that somehow you can make everything perfect is wrong I know but you don't want a big well-known Banks to no you don't but you also really want is that every now and then something will happen and the sister can handle it and due course that's what the yes the failure is okay you just don't want this domino effect and so when you have a bank run you end up with some kind of a domino effect so I guess my point is we we are close to it get to the point where a bank can fail and it doesn't have this kind of effect okay and I think just monitoring changing a few things can get much much closer to that thanks for tuning in to financial Fortune we hope you found today's video helpful in understanding the potential impacts of the upcoming recession and banking crisis as well as the strategies you can use to safeguard your financial Fortune don't forget to like And subscribe to stay up to date with our latest content and let us know in the comments what topics you'd like us to cover next until next time take care and stay financially savvy
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