저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 PER가 2022년 기준 약 62배로 높아 성장률 둔화 시 멀티플 압축 위험이 크다고 주장. 현금성 자산은 Bitcoin 매각 이익 제외 시 사실상 여유가 거의 없어 향후 증자 가능성 언급. 중국 상하이 공장 리스크(봉쇄, 대만·무역분쟁) 강조. 엔비디아 대비 PEG 비교로 테슬라 밸류 부담 설명. 결론적으로 테슬라 장기 보유는 유지하되 단기 밸류 부담과 자금조달 리스크를 경고.
다듬은 글
Hey everyone, me Kevin here. Let's talk about Tesla because it's about daily that I get hated on on the internet and that's okay, but there's been a lot of confusion that I'm trying to spread Tesla FUD, uh complaining about things I shouldn't be complaining about because the permabulls like to go like this, "La la la la la la la Tesla can do no wrong." Look, I'm a really big bull for Tesla and I really respect the Tesla community.
I think they're wonderful people, very educated people, and they're people who are right to be long Tesla. Tesla is an absolute phenomenal company. There's a reason it is the largest position that I have. But, as with the largest position I have, I'm going to place the highest amount of scrutiny on that company because when something has the potential to really hurt me, I would be stupid not to hyper analyze and hyperfocus on the red flags.
So, that way I know when to pivot in the event that I need to. And Tesla is very, very, very critically exposed to one simple thing that props it up. What props Tesla up is a multiple. That's it. A multiple of their earnings and their projected earnings. We refer to this as the price-to-earnings multiple.
If Tesla makes $50 of earnings and the stock is trading for $500, then it is selling for 10 times earnings, right? Very simple. Again, you make $50 of earnings per share, it's trading for $500, well then that's 10 in terms of your uh multiple, your price-to-earnings multiple. The issue is this multiple fluctuates based on what the growth is that Tesla faces.
And there are three red flags that came out of the last earnings report that Tesla bulls don't want to hear about, but they're things that we seriously have to look at because they have the potential of affecting what the market's perception of this multiple is and should be. Now, Tesla's nowhere near $50 of earnings per share.
In fact, Wall Street or Bloomberg doesn't even have them at half of that by 2025. Let's just for example, look at 2022 estimates though, because lately that's what we've been doing for all of the companies that we're looking at. So, we're just looking at the end of 2022. What do we get? We get probably earnings per share of around $13.
And the share price currently is around $800. Let's go with 815. That's going to give us a multiple that's obviously a lot larger than this. Let's even be generous though and go out just to compare to a future year and say we're going to get to 25 by 2025. So, we'll call this the 2025 and this will be the 2022 multiple, all right?
And then at this point, this becomes easy math because we just take 815 divided by 13 and what do we get? We get a current multiple of about 62.6. And if we go all the way out to 2025, Tesla's currently trading for 32.6. This is really considered a forward multiple and this could be considered a forward multiple as well because often times if you just type into Google, "Hey, what's the PE multiple of Tesla?" What they're doing is they're looking at the trailing 12 months of earnings per share.
That means you're looking at a snapshot of earnings the last 12 months, which are obviously substantially less uh than what this uh you know, what what the 2022 earnings per share could be. In fact, the trailing 12 month is sitting at $8.43. So, obviously very very small relative to 13, which would make this like a 100 PE, right?
Okay. So, we've got to understand that at 62 times earnings, this is selling at a 50% growth rate of a PEG ratio by dividing 62.6 by the growth rate of 50 selling for a PEG ratio of about 1.25. That's actually pretty decent. I like that about Tesla. I really do. The issue is if Tesla stops growing at that 50% clip, then you're not going to be selling for a PEG ratio that that that's that high anymore.
In fact, if Tesla starts growing at just a 25% clip, which at some point in the future it will just because of the law of large numbers. It's not going to grow at 50% forever. So, two measures of growth here. One would be the top line, which would be revenue growth, and the other would be earnings a growth.
So, let's just go revenue growth here for a moment. This is the Bloomberg consensus estimate going forward that revenue is going to grow 57.9% in 2022. Uh and then 40.5% in 23, 20% thereafter, 12% thereafter, and 23.2% in 2026. I'm not sure why you get this sort of weird bump. Maybe they assume another gigafactory will come online at that point.
Whatever. That's earnings. Now, if I do EPS growth and I show you this, I'm going to skip 2022 because it's confusing. Uh let's go over here to 38.5% 20.1% 8.7% uh and then 19.1%. The point is all of these numbers are substantially under 50%. And when you get a number that's substantially under 50%, it makes your multiple much larger.
And so, what Tesla really needs to do is make sure that these numbers over here are consistently over 50%. Wall Street does not believe it's possible. Most Tesla investors do believe that we can easily get to a compounded annual growth rate of 50% at least through 2025. At some point that will go down.
We're not going to be growing at 50% forever. By 2030, we'll probably be growing at 25% or something like that, maybe even less. By 2030, we'll be growing at a lower or slower clip. And what's going to happen then is the valuation markets will give us will compress. See, when you look at an S curve that looks something like this.
Okay? When a company starts out, you start out with this insane, potentially infinite PE ratio because you're losing money. Then you start making profit and your PE ratio looks insane. It's like a thousand. Uh and then it's 500 and then maybe it's 100, right? And then this PE ratio can align with a growth rate.
If we're at 100 and we're growing at, let's say, 70%. Uh and then we're growing at, you know, uh 50% over here, 50 50 50, 50 50 50, something like that. Uh and then we have a multiple, let's say, of uh 50 is uh the multiple that we're using, or even 60, right? So, let's call it 60 to 50, which is roughly where we sit now in that 2022 range.
At some point when that growth rate slows and goes to maybe 20% over here or 25%, you might see this multiple collapse to about 30, kind of like an Apple, right? And then when you collapse all the way to the to the tippy top, which is sort of that flat region, which I'll show you over here, you get to this flat region where your growth is only like 3% and you're like, you know, an AT&T or or whatever.
You're a company that's so established, you just don't really grow that much anymore. You're just still printing some amount of pennies, but you're growing at very, very nominal paces. Well, well then your your multiple uh that you're paying for this kind of company might be something like 6 to 10. You pay a very, very low multiple once you get to the top of the S curve.
So, with Tesla, the hope is that, okay, but then we're going to have FSD and that's going to be another S curve. And then we're going to have robots and that's going to be another S curve on top of that, right? And we're going to keep having these reasons to have an expanded multiple at Tesla. Uh but, you know, future product announcements, like I always say, Cybertruck, insurance, semi-trucks, all this stuff for me is just a margin of safety, but I really want to be part of the Tesla ride as an investor as we're on this first S curve, but I do want to be aware that when this S curve hits here, multiples are going to collapse, and that's going to affect how much Tesla can sell for on the market relative to other companies, right?
If And that's a very important thing that that I think a lot of people forget in in the Tesla bull community is that look, if Tesla right now were, let's say, uh twice what it is now, $1,600, and now all of a sudden we're selling for 120, or it'd actually be more because I think we did What was it? It was closer to like 62.
So, whatever, it'd be like 124 times. That's our multiple for 2022. Well, jeez, man, why would I pay 124 times PE for Tesla if I could go over to, let's say, a company like Nvidia? And Nvidia for has has great margins as well. It's a phenomenal company, right? Uh into AI and augmented reality, intel- intelligence, everything.
I mean, look, they're obviously very very different companies, but phenomenal company. Uh Nvidia is a company that is presently selling for next year we are expecting EPS of 536 for Nvidia. Let's go ahead and grab Nvidia stock quickly. That is 173 divided by 536, and that's compressed quite a bit from the 300 where it used to be.
Look at that. You're only paying 32 times the projected EPS for Nvidia this year. That's not bad. Why would I pay four times that for Tesla? Well, maybe Tesla's growing faster, right? That's always what it goes back to. Maybe Tesla's growing a lot faster. See, the growth, the EPS growth that Nvidia is expected to probably average somewhere around 15%.
So, at around 15% growth, that means we're paying about a two PEG over here, right? But if we're growing at 50% here, then at 124 times, uh 124 / 50, that puts us closer to 2.48, right? So, I'm paying more money for the same dollar of growth at Tesla as I would be over at Nvidia. Now, this is opposite right now because Tesla is actually I think at a great point right now because again, we're closer to a one 1.25 PEG as we did the math earlier, which is substantially less than that two over at Nvidia.
So, I like Tesla right now. Just saying, the stretchier the Tesla valuation gets, the more attractive other companies become in comparison. And that's why there's a limit to how much Tesla can explode in terms of its multiple. You have to consider other companies. Now, this led to uh the the next issue.
And that has to do with the issue of perception. A lot of folks don't recognize that the way Wall Street maintains multiples is through this very, very important word called perception. The perception of growth at Tesla, the perception of stability at Tesla. So, when people are like, "Oh, Kevin, you're only identifying the FUD." I'm doing that because I know what the hedgies are going to be looking at.
I know how they're thinking. And so, one of the first things that came up is folks said, "Oh, well, Kevin, you've gone like 10 to 12 minutes in this video and you still haven't mentioned that on July 28th, the programs on building your wealth expire because there's a 50% off coupon code down below and that expires.
And then you're not going to get that amazing price anymore." We've been talking about this coming date for a while, so it's a really important date. It's also the day GDP numbers come out. We find out if we're in a recession or not, okay? So, mark your calendar on that. Okay. So, And what we've got to talk about now is the cash flow.
And this this got a lot of people kind of like um a lot of people got their their panties tied up over this one, all right? Because they didn't like the way that I did my math. And so I'm going to now use a spreadsheet to show you why I said what I said. So first of all, it's it's useful, I think, to know that I do a lot of quick math.
And I do that because I I don't have a lot of time. And when I'm live, I also respect that you might not have a lot of time. Now, that's no excuse for doing bad math, but it's I I round. I do slight roundings. So on the fly, within minutes of this coming out, I'm like, you know, people keep talking about how Tesla has $18 billion of cash.
I've I've done that as well. But let's be real, you have to do what's known as a quick test. Some people call it an acid test. And you subtract current liabilities not including inventories from current liabilities, and then you see how much cash the company actually has available in the event of a stress event, okay?
So that's very very important. And what we're going to do is I'm just going to erase all this highlighting here for a moment. And I'm going to show you what we're going to use. We're going to use current current assets available, like cash, short-term marketable securities, accounts receivable. So number one is cash in the bank.
Number two would be stuff like treasury bills or or well, cash equivalents or sometimes short or super short-term treasury bills, like three-month treasuries. Short-term marketable securities could be like a six-month treasury or 12-month treasury, whatever. Accounts receivable is you've already delivered a product, let's say, and you're expecting to receive that revenue within the next 30 days.
Inventory, we don't actually like to use inventory because inventory is part of operating expenses. So or or leads into operating expenses. And the reason we don't use inventory in our current quick test test or asset test is because inventory takes time to actually be used and sold. So, it's not very nimble in terms of how much actual cash do we have ready to go right now.
Prepaid expenses, uh fine. Okay, so we've got a a few prepaid expenses over here. I usually uh personally don't love using prepaid expenses either. Uh but uh you know, people differ on this. The difference on prepaid expenses here is uh somewhere around What do we got? $2 billion. So, you know, depending on how you like to do your your acid test.
Prepaid expenses, by the way, I think it's helpful to just understand a little bit of what they are. Prepaid expenses would be like, all right, we we paid our our lease next month a month early, right? Now, you wouldn't do that. I'm just saying that would be an example of a prepaid expense. Or uh hey, we paid our insurance premiums for the next 6 months.
Well, the next 5 months of those are prepaid expenses. The problem with that is is it's not really like ready to go usable cash. I kind of consider it very much like an inventory. So, in my quick math, I generally don't consider prepaid expenses. Yeah, they're they're they're bills that you're not going to have to pay going forward, but it's kind of already spent, right?
You can't respend prepaid expenses. Okay, so that means I'm really only going to take the first three numbers here of cash. Okay, so we'll highlight those. Now, we'll do the same thing over here in current liabilities. So, this one's a little bit trickier, okay? So, accounts payable, these are bills we actually have to pay.
Accrued liabilities are things we're going to have to pay within the next 12 months. Deferred revenue is a tricky one. We're going to get back to that in a moment. Customer deposits, let's just assume worst case scenario, we had to refund these deposits. Generally, you don't, but the expectation is when when we're doing these these cash analyses is that deposits aren't money that you're actually going to spend.
You need to show that you have that money available in the event people want their cash back. So, we're not expecting Tesla to have to take that to give that cash back, but it's just money you don't spend. So, we subtract that off, and then obviously current portion of the longer-term debts like a 30-year mortgage, the stuff due within the next 12 months, we're going to highlight that as well.
Now, notice I'm not going to subtract deferred revenue here. Deferred revenue is cash that you've gotten that now you just need to, let's say, deliver the car for. We're expecting that happen. This cash is usually cash that we could expect All right, yeah, we can expect to use that within the next uh you know, 12 months.
So, so really uh I don't like to subtract that as a current liability, though you can. Technically, if you're doing the asset test by the book, you would also subtract that deferred revenue because it just it's money that hasn't been earned yet. So, technically, you shouldn't be spending money you haven't earned yet, right?
Uh which which makes sense. That's logical. Okay. So, let's just go with that example, okay? I think I'm being very generous on both sides. Uh so, my mental math when I did this said we were roughly at a wash. Uh and people got mad at this because they're like, "Oh my gosh, Tesla has Kevin, Kevin, you're reading the statement wrong.
Tesla has $31 billion of assets and the current liability section only says 21. That means they have like $10 billion of extra." Again, they're they're not considering that eight of those billion are inventories, right? And and things that we can't quickly use. So, this is this is just a debate to be had.
These are nominal little differences. Uh but, I think the conclusion makes a very very important one. And that's what I'm going to show you here. So, take a look at this. Uh by the way, sorry to the course members. Uh I I gave out my cell phone number to all course members yesterday and I'm like 400 text messages down to still reply to.
So, I'm working on it. I'm like on the subway. Lauren's like, "Why Why are you texting so many people?" I'm like, "Yeah, don't ask." Anyway, um yeah, it's it's been kind of fun. Thank you for all your support, by the way. There's so many of you sending even just nice messages like, "Hey, thank you so much, you know, made a lot of money." Or changed my perspective in life.
Here, I'll pull up a a couple screenshots I have. That's my little There's LEGO on my desk right behind me. And so I thought it was uh Yeah, anyway. Uh so um this this was a pretty neat one I thought I'd just shout out really quick. Uh so shout out over here. Love all the work Kevin been at Disabled Investor proving you don't need much to get started only got 30k net worth but it's a start much love.
I thought that was really cool somebody who's just getting started with the program. Uh really really awesome. So anyway, thank you of course members really really do love you and appreciate you. Okay. Uh and again my goal is always to provide more value. Uh that's that's my life's goal. Okay. So if we put this silliness on a spreadsheet all right we get the cash the short-term the accounts receivable.
I'm putting zero for inventory prepaid. That gets us to 21-ish billion dollars. Payables accrued liabilities again I'm not subtracting off the deferred revenues here. Deposits current portion of long-term fine. Okay. That gives you an extra billion dollars of cash. So so that gives you Think about that for a moment, okay?
On one hand you have people running around going oh my gosh Tesla's got all this cash. They've got 18 billion dollars of cash. And I'm at fault for throwing that number around as well. It's a nice you know little tidbit to throw on on on TV or whatever. But like when you actually do the nuanced math you have to remember that this isn't like math that we could spend tomorrow.
It's not accessible uh cash to us math cash to us. What's really accessible and usable is about this extra one billion dollars. And what's remarkable about that is it's propped up by a sale of about 900 million dollars 936 roughly million dollars of Bitcoin. You see what I mean? Like if you take the 936 million dollars out of this the extra actual literal free cash that Tesla has or would have had would have been next to zero.
But let's say they have this billion dollars. This is again extra cash above their current liabilities not considering inventory, right? Why is this important? Well, if tomorrow we decided to build another 5 billion-dollar factory, we don't have it. Okay? Now, some people are like, "Oh, well, what about operating cash flows?" We'll talk about that in a second.
The point is, if you have 1 billion dollars of available cash and it looks like you have 18 billion dollars, we don't have that 18 billion dollars. We have another billion dollars that we could go spend. Now, the difference is that we do have cash to fund our operations, and that's really, really important.
But, if tomorrow Elon Musk is like, "All right, we're announcing that we're going to build three new gigafactories." Which I think they should do. They should do this. And they're like, "We got to raise 10 billion dollars because we think our operating activities will eventually cover the end of five, but we got to raise 10 billion dollars." What are they going to do, folks?
Well, folks, if they need to raise 10 billion dollars to build three more gigafactories, first of all, hell yeah. Why hell yeah? Because it you're going to have a short-term pain because they'll probably do bonds, which are convertible to stocks, which dilute shareholders, or they'll sell stock, right?
Which also uh uh you know, puts downward pressure on uh on the uh the company, uh the company's valuation on public markets. But, that's short-term because now they have 10 billion dollars to go build more gigafactories. Why do we actually need to do this? Well, we need to do this because again, remember the beginning part of the video how I talked about Tesla has to maintain that growth, that 50%, and right now Wall Street is thinking what?
30, 20, 18, right? Roughly numbers like that. Like, Wall Street's like, "Uh-uh, you guys ain't growing at 50% for the next four or five years." So, I'm making this argument here that Tesla does not have the money that people think it think it has in order to build more factories. They just don't have the money.
And so, people got to get through their heads Tesla's going to have to raise money. If Tesla goes to $1,500 tomorrow, Elon Musk is probably going to raise money, and he would be smart to do that. Now, some people are like, "But Kevin, but Kevin, they could just fund that $10 billion from their operating profits.
They had $2.3 billion of operating profits last quarter." This is true. They had $2.3 billion of operating profits in the last quarter. But remember the money furnace argument that Elon Musk talked about? Okay? Here's how this works. You go over here to this $2.3 billion. This $2.3 billion right here.
You then subtract the money that's being invested into the factories that are currently already being built, which will still be getting built and still be getting ramped over the next 6 to 12 months, which is when I hope to hear some more Gigafactory announcements. So, you're still going to have expenses here.
You had them here, you had them here, right? We're still going to be growing these factories. So, now all of a sudden, your operating cash flow of $2.3 billion actually gets reduced by what you're investing. Now you get a free cash flow number. Now your free cash flow is actually only about $600 million.
In fact, we could jump over here. There you go. Free cash flow is $621 million. Oh, but wait a minute. We usually ignore this eight quarters thing here. We usually also pay off some amount of debt, whether that's $400 million or a billion dollars or $600 million. We usually pay off something. In fact, in the last quarter, we paid off about $400 million.
That means we basically have no money left. Okay? We've got $621 in free cash flow, but if you pay off $400 million in debt, well, now you're down to $200 million. But even if you didn't pay off any debt, you're like, "We're going to borrow for $10 billion and we're not going to pay off any debt." The free cash flow is still only $600 million dollars quarter.
That would take you what? 15 quarters or more to actually pay for those 10 billion dollars in new factories? So, people like to make fun of me. And they they like they don't like my quick math or maybe they don't like that I laugh at my own jokes, which are pretty funny by the way. Uh I I don't know what it is.
Uh like I I think what Somebody told it to me once. Uh they're like, "I don't know why Kevin, but I've always wanted to punch you in the face when when I first started watching your stuff. But then when I got to know you either in person or just through watching you longer, I stopped wanting to punch you in the face and I actually started liking you." A lot.
Uh and and I Sometimes I wish it were the opposite. Like because that's very disappointing. It makes it harder to have lots of friends because more people don't want to be your friend out of the gate, right? Uh the opposite is very convenient for some people. Some people they watch once and they're just like enamored and love with.
But then over time, they realize, "Oh, wait, you know, this person isn't actually what I thought they were, right?" Uh yeah, this person will always tend to have more friends because unfortunately most friends are very uh surficial. Very surface level. Uh and and deeper friends uh are I think very very important.
But anyway, I don't know why we're on this tangent. I think it's because we've got to get to the next thing that people get mad about. And the next thing that people get mad about, which I think is silly because again, we talked about this, Tesla doesn't have that much cash for the next factories, okay?
They're going to raise money in the future. Mark my words, Tesla will raise money in the future. And if that catches you blind because you thought, "But they had all this these these uh you know, current assets." Well, I guess you just didn't look at things the way I looked at it here and the way I explained and that's fine.
You can have a different opinion. It just means you're not prepared. You're not prepared for Tesla to raise money. That's fine. Because I am. And so what if Tesla drops 20% because they raised money and and set off a selling frenzy because that's what happened the last time they did that in September of 2020.
Well, I will diamond hand because I'm already expecting that to happen. Uh okay. We're all We're all sell some calls before I think it's going to happen, right? All right. The next thing that people get mad at me about is they say, "Kevin, how could you say that the Model S's and X's and Plaid's prop up margin?
There only 16,000 of them versus the 250,000 vehicles that are produced." Well, the reason for that is the S's and X's add maybe to the margin the difference this quarter maybe only added, you know, 0.2 to 0.4%. When you do the math, that's probably somewhere around what what the S's and X's add to margin.
But what's so important when it comes to looking at margin is understanding that Tesla Shanghai is really really important. Because in my opinion, if and we don't know this with certainty, but if we could shut down all of Tesla except for Shanghai and make vehicles, margins would probably be at 35% or more, maybe even 38%.
If we shut down all of China and only made American-made Teslas, I would guess margins would probably be around 25%. And so, getting the blended average together is very, very important with two things. Or the way you get it up is is propped up by two very important things, I should say. Number one, more S and X in the mix.
Might be a smaller portion, but even getting this up 50 basis points or half of a percent, very, very, very possible through premium Plaid sales of the S's and the X's, which have substantially higher margin, substantially higher margin. I would guess that the margin on the regular vehicles is probably close to 27, 28%.
These S's and X's are probably closer to 40 or 50%. There's a lot of margin in these. They don't break that down because I don't think they want people like me who buy these cars to feel ripped off that we probably, you know, if I buy a $130,000 car, it honestly probably only cost them 50 to make it.
And that's 80k right there. Uh that's substantially more than half. I mean, that's like a 70% profit margin. This is what it is. I mean, and that that pads the margins pretty nicely. So, that's a fact. The other thing is Shanghai. Shanghai, really China, the low cost of labor uh and uh how quickly things can get done in China make it uh very very smart to do business in China.
However, there are also real risks associated with doing business in China. Now, some people are like, "Oh, but Cat, China's not a Vladimir Putin. China's not going to rug pull us and go invade Taiwan and then shut down Shanghai." Dude, they shut down Shanghai over COVID. You don't think in a trade spat there's a risk?
And, you know what? Don't take my word for it. Don't even consider what what I'm saying about it. Why don't we just look at what Elon Musk says. And I want you to see, now that you know that had it not been Well, let me put it this way. Let me remind you, with this Bitcoin sale, totally free and available cash, Tesla's got about a billion bucks.
Not a lot of money. Without the Bitcoin, Tesla's got nothing. In fact, their their cash would have been negative. They would have grown their business their cash, available cash, by a negative amount. Okay? Not so great. All right. That That aside, which people go, "Yeah, you can't you just study." No, being realistic.
I'm not going to be a permabull. I'm not I'm not here to to to to, you know, blow smoke. Uh and and I'm not saying that talking about all these future potential revenue sources for Tesla or whatever and all this excitement is blowing smoke. But, we got to be real. And by being real, let's also look at what Elon said about China.
Yes, it should be mentioned that the reason we sold a bunch of Bitcoin holdings was that we were uncertain as to when the COVID lockdowns in China would alleviate. So, it was important for us to maximize our cash position given the uncertainty of the COVID lockdowns. We're certainly open to increasing our Bitcoin holdings in the future.
That's because Elon is smart and he realizes crap. The amount of free and available cash we have be above and beyond our current liabilities is zero. Let's dump our Bitcoin, which I made a mistake on. I said they lost money on it. They actually sold their Bitcoin for a gain. They made money on Bitcoin.
Let me make that clear. Okay? I'm sorry. I made a mistake. I went too fast on that. But, this is very interesting, folks. Elon was worried about China digging into their actual operations because China's closed. If China was closed for another 6 months, Tesla's cash, after even breaking the piggy bank of a billion dollars of Bitcoin, could have gone to -3 bill.
Maybe if China was closed for the next 6 months, they would have had to raise money just to keep the company going. And that's not saying bankrupt. I'm by no means suggesting that Tesla's anywhere near bankruptcy. But, what I am saying is the amount of available cash is low. Above and beyond the prepaid or or above and beyond the what the the quick test that we did, right?
And we know again there are longer-term assets. We know there's brand value. We know yeah, they don't have to pay off debt and then they've got maybe $600 million of free cash flow. Fine. That's with Shanghai reopening, though. Free cash flow goes down very quickly with Shanghai closed. So, there are real risks.
And what you have to remember, and this is something that that like I I can't even plan for, but if China does invade Taiwan or we end up having some larger trade disputes with China or China says we're now going to put a tariff on every Tesla that that goes to the United States from Shanghai, well, shocks, we'll see some problems.
And so, it's just a risk factor you have to be aware of as an investor. Uh so, perceptions are key when it comes to Tesla, critically key. And uh these are risk factors that we are I'm not here to suggest oh, Tesla's going to go bankrupt. I'm here to say that in order for Tesla, let's sort of the bottom line, in order for Tesla to maintain or grow its Wall Street valuation, they must prove Wall Street wrong and show that 50 50 50, that compounded annual growth rate, is possible.
But it's not possible if you only have a billion dollars to spend right now. When this Tesla stock price goes up a lot, I expect them to raise money. Thanks for watching, folks. Good night.
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