저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 데이비드 테퍼 발언을 근거로 미국 주식시장이 고평가 상태이며 당분간 비싸 보이겠지만, 재정·유동성 확대로 주가는 추가 상승할 것이라는 견해. 테퍼의 발언: CNBC 인터뷰에서 현 주식시장이 평생 본 것 중 2002년 다음으로 고평가되어 있다고 언급. 밸류에이션 기초: 주식 가치는 실제 매매가로 결정되며, 소규모 기업은 연이익의 1~2배, 대형 상장사는 보통 PER 5~20배에서 거래되어 왔음을 설명. S&P500 수치: 현재 PER 약 23배로 역사적으로 높은 수준이며, 아마존 PER 130배, 델타항공 PER 약 4배 등 개별 종목 편차가 큼. 선행 PER: 실적 기대치는 낮아졌지만 주가가 높게 유지되어 선행 PER이 매우 높으며, 이것이 테퍼가 두 번째로 고평가라고 판단한 근거. 지수 흐름: 3월 저점 약 2800 부근에서 반등했고, 2000선이 지지선 역할을 했다고 언급. 금: 대칭삼각형 횡보 후 돌파 시 상승, 기존 고점 재시험 예상. 정책 전망: 추가 재정지출·헬리콥터 머니·인프라 계획 등 대규모 지출이 예상되며, 과거 저점 이후와 마찬가지로 자산가격을 끌어올릴 것으로 봄. 리스크/조건: 주식은 당분간 비싸 보이고 장기간 그렇게 보일 수 있으나, 큰 조정은 가까운 시일에 오지 않을 것이라는 전망. 결론적 견해: 주식은 비싸지만 지금부터 추가 상승할 것으로 예상, 견해 변화 시 업데이트 예고.
다듬은 글
yet another billionaire hedge fund manager legendary investor comes out and says something that ends up moving the markets today David Tepper was being interviewed on CNBC and he said that the stock market now looks like it's the second most overvalued stock market in his lifetime second only to 2002 so we are going to do today is to break down why he says the stock market is overvalued and yes there's a general consensus that stocks are expensive right now just because they fell a little bit from the coronavirus and then they've come back up significantly from the bottom and they're currently only about 13% down from their all-time highs so people just naturally are thinking the economy is bad but stocks aren't down that much they must be expensive so we are going to break down the actual valuation metrics do a little bit of a primer on how to value stocks and why stocks actually look expensive from an objective point of view right now and what to do about it let's dive in David Tepper is one of the most successful hedge fund managers of all time and so for the most part when he calls something out and he says something people listen now on CNBC David Tepper said that this was one of the most expensive stock markets he's ever seen in his life so let's break that down what it means for a stock market or stocks to be expensive take yourself back to your childhood you run a lemonade stand now this is a top-of-the-line lemonade stand you've got pink lemonade you've got lime aid you've got regular lemonade you've got sugar-free and you're in prime location and so you've got customers constantly walking by purchasing lemonade from you in fact it's so successful that you are knocking it out of the park and your one-man lemonade stand is profiting $100,000 per year now you are the only owner of this lemonade stand so in terms of how many shares exist it's one you're the only owner and you own the entire thing now let's say you're tired of the rat race you've built a successful lemonade stand as a nine-year-old kid and you want to retire how much do you think you'd be able to sell your lemonade stand for your pulling in a hundred grand profit per year how much can you sell this business to somebody else for well that's a great question because the sale of the business is what determines the value because before there is actually a sale made before you're able to transfer that ownership to somebody else the value of the company is whatever you say it is until there's actually a sale there's no way to verify hey this is what the value of the business is the price of the business is selling at and then once you have a price then you can say whether it was expensive or not let's say you think I might try and sell my business for a hundred thousand dollars well if you go and consult anybody about this the first thing they're gonna say is well that's pretty cheap because if you just work in the business and run it for one year longer you're gonna make that hundred thousand dollars yourself anyway and so you're gonna try and sell the business for more than you could just make by owning it for an extra year and you say okay perfect thank you consulting that's that's really good advice so instead of just one year's worth of earnings how much more should I be selling it for and for that we have to take a look at other businesses other small businesses to determine how much they usually sell for in excess of their yearly profits now for businesses that generate under a hundred thousand dollars in profits every year they usually only sell in between one or two times their annual profits and so if this business was making less than that you would only be able to sell it for the amount that you make in a year small businesses are just risky and since they don't make a lot there's not a lot of a market for people to purchase that small businesses but the larger that company gets the more you could sell it for beyond its annual earnings and if the business is making 200 or 300 thousand dollars a year then you might be able to sell that business for 2 or 3 times the profit that it makes any air so you're sitting back and you're saying hey I run a great business it makes a hundred thousand dollars per year I'm gonna try and get the top dollar for this company I'm gonna sell it for three hundred thousand dollars that's three times my annual profits and I can take that nice chunk of change and I can take a gap here take or take a mini retirement and and figure out what I want to do with the rest of my life now take this concept and apply it to publicly traded stocks publicly traded stocks do the exact same thing its owners of a company that are selling their portion of ownership in that company to a new buyer and all throughout the day sales and purchases are being made of these shares of ownership of these companies and that pushes the price of the company up or down and it determines the market consensus on where the price of the actual company is the value of the company the difference between a publicly traded company and your lemonade stand though is that publicly traded companies usually trade anywhere from five to twenty times their annual profits this goes back a hundred years you can see a very well-defined range usually the low end the cheapest that the sp500 on average the stocks that make up the sp500 on average their price to earnings ratio all put together the lowest it'll ever hit is really somewhere around five and then usually anytime that p/e ratio hits twenty stock start to sell off that means on average for the last hundred years investors are willing to pay up to about 20 times annual profits for a large publicly traded company stated another way if I buy a company with a p/e ratio of 20 and the profits don't change it will take me 20 years for this company to earn what I spent on it in profits this is the way that companies are valued and it's the most basic metric evaluation of a company to determine whether it's expensive or cheap how many years will it take for that company at the current level of profits to earn back the total price that this company is selling at per share right now the S&P 500 is trading at about a ratio of about 23 the price to earnings ratio of about 23 now that's pretty high compared to historical standards there have been times when it is popped above that and then it corrects itself either through an increase in earnings or through a decrease in price or both but 23 is pretty high and again for the S&P 500 this is just gonna be an average of the companies the companies inside of it are gonna vary a lot for instance a company like Amazon right now his price to earnings ratio is 130 so you'd have to own this company Amazon for 113 years before the profits that it makes every year if the profits stay consistent will equal the amount that you're spending per share where is a company like Delta Airlines right now it's trading at a price to earnings ratio of about 4 which means it'll only take 4 years at the current level of profits to make back what the price per share is now typically companies that are growing really fast will have really high priced earnings ratios because investors are willing to pay a premium because they can see hey this company's growing so it'll catch up yes it's expensive but it's going fast whereas companies that are priced with a really low price to earnings ratio might actually mean there's something wrong with it investors are selling and getting out of it because the future prospects for this company don't look good and now we get to the crux of it which is future prospects forward-looking valuation metrics namely the forward p/e now the forward p/e is just like the p/e it's just like the price to earnings ratio except instead of using current earnings they're using expected future earnings back to the lemonade stand two years ago you made $25,000 in profits last year you made $50,000 in profits this year you made $100,000 in profits every year you've doubled your profits on your lemonade stand so if you go to sell your lemonade stand for $200,000 that's cheap your forward price earnings ratio would suggest that you're selling that then for a multiple of only one of your next year's earnings and so your forward p/e is going to take into account expectations about the future of where your profits will be in the coming year right now the forward p/e for the S&P 500 is extremely high even taking into account the sell-off because of the future expectations of earnings as the supply chain disruptions ripple throughout the economy and unexpected economic forces are making their way across financial markets future earnings expectations are pretty low compared to historical norms yet the prices of the actual stocks themselves have not adjusted to that lower expectation of earnings their prices have maintained a relatively high level and so the forward p/e for the overall stock market the price per share compared to the expectation of future earnings is at a level that caused David Tepper to say this is the second most expensive stock market that I've seen in my career now this along with Powell's remarks about the fact that we're not gonna have negative interest rates I called that in my last video cause the stock market to sell off today and if you look at this intraday chart of the S&P 500 you can see there was a steep sell-off and then it bottomed out at about 2800 came back up settled up a little bit above that if you look at this longer chart last couple of months about the S&P 500 you can see here that that 20 hundred level is a pretty good support resistance line and and we held above it today now understanding that since negative interest rates nominally are not being introduced at least not yet more QE and more debt monetization will have to happen to deal with the ramifications of the economic crisis that we're facing which pushed gold higher now you can see gold is still in this consolidation pattern here it's still in this symmetric triangle that we see here it did settle out at the top of the range today but I would expect that once we do break out of here we will see a rally retest those highs for gold now seeing the stock market sell-off today like it did I would fully expect that over the next couple of days couple of weeks we will see a more aggressive response maybe Congress will make more progress on the next measures to send out helicopter money for everybody who is unemployed maybe an infrastructure plan will be laid out whatever it is there's going to be a lot more spending coming down the pike and this will have the effect that it's had since the market's bottom two couple of weeks ago it will drive stocks higher like I said in my video over the weekend about bad economic data it actually helps to drive the overall stock market higher because as bad economic data hits more spending happens and due to the Cantillon effect of spending first hits asset prices so yes stocks are expensive and I think they will continue to look expensive for a very long I don't think we'll see deals in the stock market anytime soon but I do expect stocks to continue to go up from here we'll see how things unfold and I'll keep you updated on whether that opinion changes or not if you do have any questions or thoughts let me know in the comments section below if you enjoyed the video hit that like and subscribe button and I really appreciate you guys have a great day
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