저자: JoeBrown · 외국인
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결론: 금 공급 급증 우려(우주 채굴)는 현실성이 낮고, 금광 기업은 여전히 저평가 상태라는 주장. 우주 채굴 우려: 엘론 머스크의 소행성 금 채굴이 금 가치를 떨어뜨린다는 윙클보스 형제 주장은 기술적으로 수십~수백 년 뒤의 일이며 채산성도 낮아 허구에 가깝다고 평가. 금 공급 원리: 금은 과거 수천 년간 연 1~1.5% 공급 증가율을 보였고 이는 인구 증가와 대략 맞아떨어졌다고 설명. 채굴 가능한 금은 이미 지상 광산에 매장되어 있어 우주 채굴보다 먼저 쓰인다고 주장. 금의 성격: 금은 투자(수익 창출 자산)가 아니라 화폐이자 부의 저장 수단이며 실물자산은 장기적으로 안전하다는 견해. 워런 버핏: 버크셔 해서웨이가 바릭 골드에 약 5억 달러를 투자한 사실을 언급. 버핏은 과거 금에 부정적이었지만 금 자체가 아니라 금광 주식(수익 창출 자산)에 투자한 것이므로 모순은 아니라고 해석. 2016년 애플 투자 사례처럼 버핏은 가치 판단이 서면 입장을 바꾼다고 설명. 결론적 견해: 금광 기업들은 현재 가장 저평가된 기업군 중 하나라는 기존 주장을 재확인. 출연자 전망: 금광 기업이 여전히 저평가되어 있으며 금 가치는 장기적으로 안정적이라고 전망. 뉴스레터 안내: 주간 뉴스레터 구독 안내(투자 정보 아님). 사회자 의견: 데이브 포트노이에 대해 호의적 평가, 윙클보스 주장은 완전한 난센스라고 비판.
다듬은 글
what's up everybody welcome to heresy financial my name is joe brown today we are doing a little bit of a fun video recently the winklevoss twins were sitting down with dave portnoy and it kind of went viral because they were talking about how bitcoin there's a finite supply for infinity for as long as time exists there will never be any more bitcoin created however something like gold elon musk is going to go up and start space mining and mine all the gold from asteroids and rain it down on earth and gold will become as plentiful and worthless as sand on earth meanwhile warren buffett who dave portnoy has blasted on social media as being washed up over the hedge past his prime and meanwhile warren buffett over the past few months has been scooping up a stake in barrick gold company a large miner so who's right is gold about to become worthless is elon musk going to go to space and make it rain down on earth and make gold as plentiful as sand or is warren buffett right justifying his new stake in a gold mining company let's dive in now i can't even believe that i have to make a video about this but i actually had enough people that i saw taking this seriously and getting a little bit stumped by it like hey if there really is all this gold in outer space won't that make gold less valuable because one of the things that gives gold its value is its scarcity and if we can just go to outer space and mine millions or billions of tons from asteroids that are floating around our galaxy and just send it back home and make gold extremely plentiful won't that destroy the value of gold well yes of course that would destroy the value of gold relative to its current value because obviously scarcity has a huge role to play in how well gold has preserved its value over the thousands of years over the last few millennia and in the times of earth's history when we've been able to increase the total supply of gold and silver in circulation extremely quickly there has been rampant inflation just like we experience a lot of inflation right now when the supply of paper money increases times when all of the gold was sent back from south america over to europe and asia there was a lot of price inflation at that point and so obviously in theory yes this would destroy the value of gold compared to its current value but as yogi berra said in theory there's no difference between theory and practice but in practice there is because if it was profitable to build spaceships strong enough to carry all the mining equipment to outer space land on asteroids drill into asteroids take out all the gold ship it back to earth and then land and deploy it if that was profitable the first thing they would do is just drill all the gold out of the earth first there is a ton of gold sitting in proven mines right now that the mining companies are just sitting on and waiting for it to become profitable for them to start their drilling operations and this is on earth this is equipment is there and they're just waiting for the price of gold to get to a point at which they think hey this is profitable for us to start spending the money to pay for the labor and the equipment and the energy to pull all this gold out of the ground and refine it and put it into circulation so if you have to take that entire operation and fly it to outer space number one you're going to be waiting a long time for the price of gold to get up to a point at which that becomes profitable and number two you first have to exhaust the supply on earth because if it's profitable enough to mine gold on an asteroid that means it's profitable enough to mine all the gold on earth minus the costs of the transportation of the rocket ships the spaceships it's going to be the same cost probably a little bit more to do it on an asteroid because you have to worry about you know breathing in space but the energy costs and the labor costs of actually doing the mining are going to be the same so any time you have to move that operation to outer space that's going to be more expensive and by the way let's say there was an asteroid that was actually pure gold really close by and it was really easy to get to all you had to do was pay for the spaceship and the equipment to get there and then start mining that gold and shipping it back in it let's say it's pure gold there's no other metals which that's not the case these asteroids that they're talking about are basically it's just speculation what they're made out of and the theory is that they are made out of some percentage of gold and because they're so large that means that the gold that's in them is worth a lot of money but they're not by any means just a giant hunk of gold flying through space but let's say let's say that it is and we just we find that one asteroid out there that's worth trillions of dollars worth of gold right now and they're able to very cheaply bring it back to earth yes like i said before in theory that would destroy the total value of gold compared to what it's at now but keep in mind even sand which is one of the most plentiful things on earth is a scarce resource in fact something even more than sand how about take water our planet is literally covered in water and it's still a scarce resource because it's something that is usable it's something with intrinsic value it's a commodity that people actually need and can use for things and so if the price point of gold was to come down enough from a massive supply increase of gold to make it you know as worthless as something like sand you would have a huge technological and industrial boom because all of a sudden you have this commodity that's extremely useful and things like electronics become extremely cheap and so there would be this massive overall systemic wealth growth from something like that happening and so it's not a concern to any launch first of all the technology's not even there to be able to do this this is minimum decades away and probably centuries away from being able to have the technology to do this let alone have it become profitable past getting all the old the gold out of the out of the earth's crust but let's say let's say that's there we don't really have to worry ever about at least in our lifetimes and more than likely our children's and our grandchildren's lifetimes we don't have to worry about a massive increase of supply hitting our value of gold because over time that's always been a concern there's always been the concern that a massive supply increase of gold will hurt its value and sometimes it happens yes there's a big discovery made resulting in a large increase of supply but over time for thousands of years the supply increase of gold has been right around one one and a half percent which on average that's been right in line with the growth of the population of earth and so as the demand for money has gone up because gold and silver they've always been money so as the demand for money has gone up over time due to the population of earth growing you need more money to be able to service transactions of more people that's made it more profitable over time to commit more research more resources to mining and producing new gold that's why there are proven deposits that miners are sitting on right now because they're just waiting for the point where the value of gold the price point of gold gets to a point where they're like hey we're going to now make some decent profits by pulling this out of the ground and when those profit potentials aren't there the gold just sits in the ground and so that's why storing your wealth in physical assets that have real intrinsic value is a safe bet over the long term because they store well they don't decay they have intrinsic value because they have actual use and they can never go to zero because the cost of acquiring more of something that has real use is always going to be tied to the man hours the labor needed to extract it and to produce more of it meanwhile the quarterly report about what berkshire hathaway has done with its holdings came out today and man this is something that warren buffett has never done before he bought about 500 million dollars worth of barrick gold corporation now barrick is a large mining company and warren buffett throughout his entire career has been very adamant about not liking gold his father liked gold but warren buffett doesn't like gold and i get it from his perspective because when he looks at something he's looking at investing and gold is not an investment i've said this a lot of times on this channel before but gold is money it's not an investment there's a difference between money and investments money and assets one produces income one is performing one produces cash flow the other is money it's a store of wealth and it's what you use to store up your wealth and then you can deploy that into investments when you find investments that are priced at good valuations and that is precisely something that warren buffett is extremely good at is finding companies that are undervalued that's been the hallmark of his entire career he's the best in the business at finding undervalued companies so what does it tell you that warren buffett has now deployed a sizable investment into a gold mining company well it confirms what i've been saying on this channel since the beginning that gold mining companies still are some of the best valued the most undervalued companies there are right now they're the by the decade and so no absolutely i do not think well number one i don't think he's actually flipping that much on his stance i mean back in 2016 that was the last time that warren buffett was kind of looked at as changing one of his investment beliefs it was when he switched from not he hated investing in tech he's always been really averse to tech and in 2016 he switched he bought a huge stake in apple when it was at about a hundred dollars per share now as of the close today apple is over 450 dollars per share and so number one warren buffett knows how to find value he knows how to recognize when companies are undervalued number two he's not afraid to change his opinion on things and when he does it's important to pay attention because that means that something caught his eye enough that had a good enough valuation relative to the rest of the market that warranted him to change a long-held belief about the value of something in order to put a sizable amount of his money into it and the other thing is that it doesn't actually contradict his long-held beliefs about gold that much because he's not investing in gold he's investing in a gold mining company which is an equity it's a stock it's an investment it's not money and so he's deploying his cash into a performing asset that's different so it's not really contradictory to what he said before about not buying gold because gold doesn't produce any income gold is not a performing asset doesn't produce cash flow but that doesn't change the fact that gold mining stocks are some of the best valued companies there are right now now i love dave portnoy he's one of the funniest guys to watch on the entire internet especially since he's gotten into day trading if you don't know who he is go check him out on any social media there is he's big everywhere and he's really funny and it's fun to watch especially watch his evolution from when this whole crisis started he started doing day trading when sports shut down and to watch him evolve in that and he slams the mainstream financial media all the time and it's largely satirical he's just it's basically a comedy media show and so it's fun to watch i don't have anything bad to say about him but what the winklevoss twins said about the supply of gold being about to increase because elon musk is going to go take it all from the stars is just complete nonsense the value of gold is stable over time and the current environment that we're in right now shows that somebody who understands how to find value is finding it in a company that doesn't pull gold out of the asteroids but it pulls it out of the earth now one last note before we go if you signed up for my weekly newsletter by now you would have gotten a confirmation email so you'll get an email now as soon as you subscribe you'll get an email that says are you sure that you subscribed to this was this an accident mistake you have to click confirm on that if you didn't get that email check your spam if you didn't get it in your spam just go resubscribe i've got the link in the description below it's a weekly email it's all set now i've got the tech issues taken care of so every single week on friday i'm going to be sending out an email blast it's a curated list of just a few of my favorite financial articles that i've found value in for that week it could be about economics or stocks or gold or bitcoin or investing or trading and it'll be just a few of the best articles that have provided me some value throughout the week and i'm going to be just sharing all of those with you once per week on friday this email will come out so if you want to get that email to see what i'm reading the best of the week go to the description below and sign up it's the link there just put your email address in and you'll be added to the list make sure that you confirm on the confirmation email that you'll get right away thank you so much for watching i really appreciate you guys have a great weekend you
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