저자: JoeBrown · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오 분석 기준으로 미국 주식시장 전체는 아직 버블 단계가 아니지만, 일부 신흥 기술주에는 강한 버블 신호가 나타나고 있다는 결론. 달리오 버블 판단 기준 6가지: 전통 밸류에이션 대비 가격 수준, 지속 불가능한 조건 반영 여부, 신규 매수자 유입, 강세 심리, 레버리지 매수, 확장된 선물성 매입(자사주·설비투자·M&A). 2007년에는 주식시장 전체에 버블 신호가 없었고, 닷컴 버블 때는 6개 지표 모두 버블을 가리켰으며, 1920년대도 대부분 최고 수준이었다는 역사적 비교. 현재 시장은 분절되어 있음: 신흥 기술주(테크 중 일부)는 밸류에이션·신규 매수자·강세 심리·레버리지 지표가 버블권이며, 선물성 매입은 다소 과열. 반면 S&P500 전체는 버블 신호가 없다는 해석. 백분위 데이터: 전체 시장 약 77~82분위(높지만 역사적 극단 수준은 아님), 신규 매수자 유입 95분위, 강세 심리 약 85%, 레버리지 약 80분위 수준이며 콜옵션 거래량이 풋옵션 대비 사상 최고 수준의 괴리. 신흥 기술주는 S&P500 대비 2020년 이후 크게 초과수익을 기록. IPO 급증(SPAC 활용)도 과열 신호로 언급. 선물성 매입 지표는 약 15~20%로 낮아 아직 연료가 남아 있으며, 기업 투자가 본격화되면 '블로우오프 탑(급등 후 정점)' 가능성이 있다는 전망. 다만 지표가 정확한 고점 시점을 알려주지는 않는다는 단서. 진행자는 여러 분석가·경제학자들이 서로 다른 근거로 비슷한 결과를 예상하고 있다는 점을 주목. 채널 회원 대상 월간 라이브 Q&A 홍보.
다듬은 글
what's up everybody welcome to heresy financial my name is joe brown and today we're going to be looking at a recent article that ray dalio wrote uh discussing whether we have a stock market bubble right now or not we're going to look at some of the charts that he's put together that uh will indicate if we have a stock market bubble right now what are some of the uh input sources that are coming into uh into these charts to uh indicate whether or not there's a bubble right now and if so what to do about it ready let's dive in all right so if you're not familiar with ray dalio ray dalio is uh the founder of the largest hedge fund in the world bridgewater and he puts out a lot of fantastic research he's written multiple books my favorite book by him is uh navigating big debt crises that's a fantastic book by him i highly recommend it and so uh there's really six uh well first of all how does ray dalio define a uh a bubble what he means when ray dalio says bubble he means an unsustainably high price and so there's six measures that uh that bridge water and and he looks at in order to determine whether something is in a bubble or not so the first one here is how high are prices relative to traditional measures so look back at the traditional measures of valuations and pricing and how high are they versus traditional measures not current uh measures that's important number two how are prices discounting unsustainable conditions so look at the prices and are the prices factoring in continuation into the future of something that actually can't continue number three how many new buyers have entered the market and by new buyers it means those who were not previously in the market because if the market has absorbed a ton of new buyers let's say every single person in the world has invested all their money in the stock market well that's the top right you can't go up from there there's no additional money to come in um number three or i'm sorry number four how broadly bullish is sentiment um so that's a sentiment gauge you just look around whether it's you know with uh depending on how you measure this you're just looking around and saying the average person the average investor the average company uh how bullish are they how much do they expect things to continue to go up number five are purchases being financed by high leverage and so again that's fairly self-explanatory is there a lot of debt being used or other forms of leverage such as derivatives like options in order to make purchases and then lastly have buyers meet exceptionally extended forward purchases which is built inventory contracted forward purchases to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains so these are the six measures that are looked at to determine whether you know a stock market or something is experiencing bubble dynamics now if we look at their uh their output and you take the answers to all these questions and you look at the stock market historically today versus the 20s versus the dot-com bubble versus 2007 take a look at this chart you can see here that during the 20s the bubble indicator hit all the way at the highest possible could hit bubble on all six of those except the last one buyers or businesses making extended forward purchases which was frothy which is just down from bubble during the dot-com bubble it was all six across the board the indicators were flashing bubble on all fronts during 2007 this is important because during 2007 right we had we had a crash following that maybe not immediately but there was a crash following that and in 2007 these indicators uh did not all turn up uh bubble uh when you look at traditional measures of valuation when you look at prices discounting unsustainable conditions the stock market was not flashing bubble signs at that point maybe the housing market was but the stock market was not um things like the whether new buyers have entered the market broad bullish sentiment those were frothy and then the last two were flashing bubble indicators purchases were being financed by high leverage and forward purchases were being made now when you look at today the market is fragmented so there are it what ray dalio and bridgewater's research is pointing to is that there are certain areas of the market that are flashing big bubble signs and then certain areas of the market that are not case in point tech and specifically merging tech showing a lot of bubble signs right now so the top two traditional valuation measures and uh discounting unsustainable conditions those are showing frothy uh when you look at new buyers entering the market obviously that's bubble right you can see in a lot of stocks they're being purchased by uh basically all by retail especially those who are brand new to the market there's a lot of stocks that are extremely concentrated in the hands of uh the the small retail investor just brand new entrance into the market especially after covet uh broad bullish sentiment in in certain stocks very bubbly um purchases being financed by high leverage very bubbly and then somewhat frothy are going to be businesses making extended forward purchases now the rest of the market is not flashing those same indicators in fact based on their proprietary uh data and indicators here there's no bubble signs being flashed anywhere in the stock market right now outside of these isolated companies in emerging tech so the highest bubble indicator that we get here is going to be frothy with new buyers entering the market and broad bullish sentiment everything else is is not uh is not there yet so if we look at the next chart here we can see that in aggregate we're getting up to the 77th percentile today when you look at the entire stock market we're up there in terms of you know how bubbly the market looks but we're not anywhere near uh the uh you know before the great depression we're not anywhere near the dot-com bubble burst yet now the fragmentation in the markets that's going on here where you see a lot of uh you know bubbliness going on a lot of overvalued a lot of but these bubble indicators are flashing strong bubble signs in certain stocks but not in the broad market that's highlighted when you look at these emerging tech stocks versus the s p 500 over the last year maybe a little over a year return since the start of 2020.
so if you look at the s p 500 the top 500 stocks you can see that the blue line there is the um is the return and then the red line is the return uh for these companies that are flashing bubble signs and uh and so you can see there that they've vastly outperformed the rest of the stock market now let's break it down into those six indicators let's look at the first one first how high are prices relative to traditional measures we look at this we're at about 82nd percentile here so just looking at this first metric on you know whether the market is flashing a bubble sign again we're up there but we're not uh you know we're not at the peak we're not at those extremes that we've seen before within the last 100 years the second indicator our price is discounting on sustainable conditions again we're in the 77th percentile here so it's high but it's not again anywhere near where it's gotten to multiple times in the past century now the third indicator this is where we're seeing it kind of peak out here and this is the new buyers entering the market and so that kind of makes sense right we're in the 95th percentile and that is a very very high historically we've got a flood of new investors coming to the into the market over the last year bridgewater has their uh for the fourth uh indicator broadly bullish sentiment how how broadly bullish is sentiment currently sitting at 85 percent and uh one of the reasons for this is the uh is because of ipos ipos are you know they're coming on hot right now lots of ipos lots of new companies going public that's typically one of the signs of uh right before uh there's gonna be some sort of crash you usually have a spike in ipos and obviously that's being led by specs it's much easier for a company to go public through spax special purpose acquisition companies uh there's a lot less red tape for a company to be able to go public through one of these uh throne of these deals so we're seeing a lot of that happen through specs right now which is contributing to the spike in ipos that we're seeing now the fifth indicator our purchase is being financed by high leverage we can see here that the usa leverage gauge percentile that they have there currently sitting a little under 80 percent uh nowhere near the dot-com bubble but there's a lot of leverage through the use of options specifically call options on single stocks that's at record highs driven mainly by retail purchases and so you can see here on this chart call volume versus put volume the divergence is is big compared to the you know the historical correlation there we got a lot higher buying of calls than we've had of puts over the last year or so now this last one is kind of what's keeping down the entire bubble index if you look at everything aggregated together this one is to what extent have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases which is done primarily through capex and m a and uh you're not going to you're not seeing a lot of this right now if you look at the uh it's what's the percentage on this it's down at you know it's under 20 right now maybe 15 percent and uh this is arguably one of the biggest drivers of um kind of bringing the bubble to completion if you will you always see a lot of this kind of stuff you obviously see a lot of corporate spending you obviously see a lot of this kind of stuff happen right at the end right at the the height of these uh of these bubbles so what's my take away from this my takeaway from this is essentially that we are getting into the top of we're getting into this blow off top area where uh we're starting to see some of these bubble indicators flash in parts of the market but it's not in terms of the stock market it's not flashing strong everywhere yet and that's important because that means there's still dry powder left to be burned and so especially this last one that's holding down the entire index once corporations start plunging money into this that's really going to start driving prices up and that's kind of this blow off top this melt up that you know it looks like these indicators are saying could be coming because you don't see these indicators these are more long-term view things and so you're not going to see them predict the exact timing of tops or bottoms and so it looks like the there's some remaining fuel in the fire which should push everything to kind of this blow off top which is you know you're you're seeing kind of a similar approach a similar expectation in the market being being looked at from different analysts different economists for completely different reasons that's one of the things i like about looking at things from different points of views is because hey if if you've got people who disagree on how things happen or uh you know their views on economics or anything like that but they're all kind of saying hey it looks like the same result is going to happen um then you're you're able to kind of start to isolate the signal from the noise there and start to see something that is you know a common theme spread throughout so that's uh that's kind of my takeaway from this and if you have any questions and that you'd like to ask me directly keep in mind i do a monthly live stream q a for members only go ahead and hit that join button next to the subscribe button below the video if you don't see it there you can always sign up through the join link in the description below 25 bucks a month members only these q and a's are never posted publicly they're only posted after the fact for members only so i do that once a month if you're interested in getting very specific questions asked about the market or portfolio allocation or anything like that go ahead and sign up there as always let me know what you think about this in the comments section below and i really appreciate you watching have a good day you
Comments 0