저자: JoeBrown · 외국인
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일론 머스크가 트위터 투표 결과에 따라 테슬라 주식 10%(약 1,700만 주, 약 210억 달러) 매도 의사를 밝힌 배경을 분석. 대량 매도가 주가를 폭락시키지 않고 NOT HELD 주문(VWAP/TWAP 알고리즘)으로 시간을 두고 처리 가능하다고 설명. 머스크는 급여가 없어 세금 납부를 위해 주식 매도가 필요하며, 스톡옵션 베스팅과 주식담보 대출 상환 필요가 있고, 테슬라 주가가 사상 최고 수준이라 지금이 매도 적기라고 봄. 부유세 논의에 대해 비판적이며 연방 적자 관점에서 세수 효과가 미미하다고 주장. 은 투자 광고가 중간에 포함됨.
다듬은 글
what's up everybody my name is joe brown and this is heresy financial we all know that elon musk is a genius and it's probably even better known that he is a troll and in light of the recent push for a billionaire tax a wealth tax a tax on unrealized capital gains elon put up a poll on twitter simply asking if people thought he should sell 10 of his tesla stock he detailed that number one he would abide by the results of the poll if the pulse had to sell he would sell number two he does not take a salary from any of his companies therefore number three the only way that he could ever pay taxes is if he sells some of his stock well turns out that either the tesla shorts or the socialists won that poll because 58 of respondents said he should sell so in this video we are going to look at number one is it even possible to sell that much without tanking the price number two why would he risk it why would he leave that up to the results of a poll on the internet and number three a little bit of my commentary on wealth taxes mixed in ready let's dive in it's well known that elon musk's company tesla popularized the electric car and is one of the largest producers of solar panels and one thing about both electric cars and solar panels is that silver is an essential element in the production of both and with the way things are going right now it doesn't look like spending on these things is going to slow down anytime soon so if you'd like to take advantage of the historically low prices in silver right now use one gold to buy allocated segregated silver in a private vault in a country of your choice and if you use my affiliate link in the description below you will get a five dollar sign up bonus as well now in building this solar and ev empire elon musk has obviously become very rich in fact he is now the richest person in the world by a significant margin but all this wealth is purely on paper he takes no salary from any of his companies so the only way he pays his bills is number one by selling stock or number two borrowing taking out debt and using that stock as collateral now all this wealth has started attracting the attention of the green-eyed greed soaked kleptocrats on capitol hill as they ring their hands trying to figure out ways to financially punish those who are literally bringing their own visions of a green environmentally friendly future into fruition making those plans a reality they want to find a way to take their money so in light of this elon offered i will sell 10 of my stock if the poll so chooses and so choose it did which brings up the question how is this even possible so to answer that first how much is 10 of elon musk's stock in tesla worth well he owns somewhere in the neighborhood of 170 million shares of tesla which means that depending on the price he gets if he sells 10 he'll get about 21 billion dollars worth so can tesla stock absorb the sale of 17 million shares well depending on the day tesla trades anywhere between 15 million to 60 million shares every day so you might look at that and think well yeah there's plenty of volume to support him selling 17 million but you have to remember for every trade that takes place there's both a buyer and a seller if you ever hear somebody say oh there's more buyers than there are sellers or the buyers one today there's way more sellers that's not true for every trade that takes place there's both a buyer and a seller somebody's buying somebody's selling for one trade to happen what they're really talking about is there's more potential buyers or more potential sellers or the sellers slowly accepted worse and worse prices or the buyers slowly accepted worse and worse prices so if elon tomorrow goes in size yolo hits market order to sell 17 million shares it absolutely would well it wouldn't take place that that trade would be blocked but let's say it happened it would crush the stock 100 because on top of the 15 million or so sellers every single day there would be an additional 17 million shares trying to be sold but remember not everybody who sells is selling at market a market order is say guarantee me execution make this trade happen no matter what the price is i just want the next available price and this is fine if your order is significantly under what the current total volume is but if you're gonna double the total daily volume not smart so you might think okay well what about a limit order because contrary to what a market order is a limit order says buy or sell as long as you can get me a specific price so i'd like to guarantee the price not the execution problem is if elon went in and slammed in a sell order at a limit of let's say 1200 it would likely never fill because now you have a de facto price cap on the stock at 1200 there are 17 million shares waiting to be unloaded at 1200.
so nobody was going to buy a 1200 because they know they can't ever get above that you're not going to buy 1200 if you know you can't get 1201 so the highest somebody would be willing to buy it for would be 1199.99 and you'd have sell orders coming in there to undercut that ceiling of 1200 so that's not a very effective move either and just in case you're thinking you can't just say okay well what if we set that limit order significantly below the current market because all that does is set the ceiling lower than 1200 like at 1100 immediately the stock would drop to 1100 and then you'd have the same effect take place there you'd have another defective ceiling at 1100.
so what can he do well it turns out that relatively large sell orders like this happen all the time every time an insider needs to unload a significant percentage of their shares this happens you usually have insiders whenever they go to sell are selling something that is a significant percent of the total daily volume so in these situations they just have their brokers work a not held order for them not held is different from both a market or and a limit order because they're saying we're not going to hold you to either time or price so a market order holds to a time now but not a price limit order doesn't hold to a time but does hold to a price a not held order says you work it at your discretion get me out whether it takes a day couple weeks or even sometimes a couple of months work the order at your discretion as best as possible to get me out at the best price you can the traders then take that order and they work it with very simple algorithms like v-wap or t-wop v-wop is volume weighted average price t-op is time weighted average price these simple algorithms just ensure that the traders are selling into strength that they're not overloading the market with sell orders and absorbing all the buys and pushing the price down too much sometimes it takes a few days sometimes a few weeks sometimes a few months but eventually the order is filled the trades have been worked and the 10 percent or whatever it is has been sold and the insider has their cash so the answer is yes elon musk can absolutely sell 10 of his stock without crushing the price of tesla now the price will almost certainly be lower than it would have been without that selling but the blow has been significantly softened sometimes to the point of nobody even noticing so the question is why would he do this why would he put up at risk 10 of his stock in tesla to the result of a poll well to be honest he really didn't he was going to sell a significant chunk of his stock in tesla anyway maybe not 10 percent but a good chunk earlier this year he talked about how this year his stock options were vesting and he was going to have a massive tax bill the only way he'd be able to pay that is by selling stock he also recently borrowed against his shares and was likely looking for a time to sell some shares to pay back that debt and this seems like as good a time as any considering how frequently elon musk has said he thinks tesla stock is too high he's been very vocal about that he's a smart man and he realizes that this insane valuation on his company is frothy to say the least so if you need to sell some stock to pay off debt to pay a tax bill to get some cash ready for future years where you won't be selling anything and you're still not taking a salary it's a good time to do it if the stock is at all-time highs and in fact he's looking at almost 15 billion dollars worth of tax liabilities this year now of course this sale will make that tax bill larger but he was going to have to sell some stock to pay that bill anyway now obviously this move is going to satisfy nobody ron wyden on twitter said whether he pays taxes or not should not be up to a twitter poll time for a billionaire's tax further it's not like this tax bill's going to make any dent in the federal budget deficit ryan selkiss on twitter did the math and he said that the 5 billion dollars in federal taxes that's produced just from this sale is enough to fund the us federal government for wait for it seven hours that's right seven hours but sure the solution to all the problems in the world is throw more money at this giant bottomless black hole as always really appreciate you guys thanks so much for watching have a great day
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