저자: DyslexicInvestor · 외국인
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S&P500 단기 조정 가능성에 대한 기술적 분석 영상. 데이비드 테퍼의 '99년 이후 두 번째로 과대평가된 시장' 발언을 인용하며 시장 고평가 우려를 제기함. 단, 이는 인용 소개일 뿐 진행자 자신의 직접 예측은 아님. S&P500은 최근 약 5% 하락했으며 200일 지수이동평균선 부근에서 이중 천장(double top) 신호가 나타났다고 봄. 상단 저항은 약 295, 하단 지지는 약 263으로 제시. 월봉 차트에서 5·8 이동평균선이 21 이동평균선을 하향 돌파하는 신호가 나타나면 더 강한 하락 가능성이 있다고 언급했으나, 아직 교차가 확정되지 않았다고 설명. 결론적으로 진행자는 확정적 하락을 예언하지 않고 경계와 관망을 강조함. 과도한 레버리지 투기(Yolo 베팅)는 피할 것을 권고.
다듬은 글
what up investors what appears can hear from dyslexic investor and we're looking at basically four minutes until the open here on this Thursday morning and SP Y being slightly down last couple days we've dropped a couple percentages really failing at the six one eight percentile move from the swing high swing low here that basically coincides with the two hundred exponential moving average for indicating signs that we've failed a double tap top here looking for potentially going lower seeing the initial first line of resistance around 278 lack of better words and then basically 278 to 277 could be some very light support and then potentially further down we're gonna be looking at support around 263 that's in the downside upside is going to be resistance again around that 295 level which we're needing to break out if the Bulls want to win this case so just a couple articles I wanted to share with you today kind of highlight that some of the stuff here so David Tepper so this is a guy who has been in the hedge fund business for three decades he is also you might know him as the owner of the Carolina Panther football team I mean he's saying that this is the second-most overvalued stock market that he's seen since 99 but again he made that statement two days ago and then the market dropped about 4% exactly let's see exactly how much we actually drop from two days ago he said it here so we took a swing high swing low we're looking at and I Corson needed to zoom out just a little bit more you're gonna hear the bell open up here in a second you're gonna get a big ding ding ding ding so about 5% he said that about 5% ago still indicating for potential lack of the liquidity is not a problem but the sense of just over valuations for a lot of companies so being that looking at this you can watch I'll put this link in description his interview is pretty fantastic really smart guy and to listen what he says I don't think he's just trying to run out there give the alarm and make people run for the fences but that being said looking at the basically the P p/e ratio here it's getting pretty high up there so that's what he's meaning by the evaluation of the standard poor's average company within the standard & poor's so basically being a little over 20 has been a very top B pattern for potential further downside resistance and then indicating that the swing that we've had in the market was a much greater upswing that he projected or thought but now seeing for potential more downside movement again he doesn't have a crystal ball I don't have a crystal ball we just kind of have to sit on our hands and wait to see on what happens next on what levels could be tested and so forth so I'm not gonna put an alert out here the bell is literally about to open in 38 seconds another great little article he'll - I'll put it in the description below this is basically stock market it's flashing some warning signs AKA looking for a potential downside I like this little bullet point employers and technical Nelsons are watching and waiting for Thursday's action there's the market open let's go ahead and take a look you loo what's going on here okay we definitely opened lower we kind of broke this downward candle again looking for initial support here nothing too violent to go down we could see a bounce here as well again we just have to wait and see going back to this article here looking at Thursday's actions again we want to look for how I trade is on clothes of the market to see how what what we need to do and move forward looking at the overall a lot of support again this is where the overhead resistance coming in what we talked about and then the down trough with the potential what they call a bear bounce and this is basically a bull trap where everyone thinks that can potentially going to go higher everyone's buying in getting all those Robin Hood spy calls with no commissions and then it just kind of could fall out of this guy again I don't have a crystal ball neither does anyone else in the market that I know of but that being said just being super mindful out there being very careful and selective on not just doing Yolo bets and placing bets that are the most advised means to here we are seeing a little bit of a positivity and some Bulls coming in here to try to buy this up this could be a nice little push higher again to 282 but if that fails we could be seeing a little bit more of a downside risk that could bounce up again looking for the initial guides of potentially we want the ticker to close by the end of the day above the 21 which is around 283 right now and then potentially that's the positive or bull case for the bear case again it could close lower on that ticker or close below the 34 which is this little dotted orange line here looking forth that being said there is another interesting thing that I shared actually to my patreon subscription folks this morning where I shared them a basically a monthly chart so this is a monthly let it hit the wrong button this is a monthly chart of the S&P 500 again this is oh wait oh nine over here and this is the bull run as we know it basically since then and again the way I trade and the technical analysis that we offer here is basically using the 21 exponential moving average as being the the average range or the guideline for a bull trend or a bear trend with the 5 and the 8 being a little bit more higher momentum side of things as you can see here we can kind of just zoom in here that the 5 and 8 since it's like 2011 has been very well above the 21 you can kind of see here writing it up now we're jumping to 16 the again the white and purple line are well above the 21 a lot but now we're seeing some early signs of potential divergence from that we did see the white cross through the pink line which is the ATM a on the monthly chart again this is a monthly chart so this chart takes forever to play out it's a whole full month so whatever 38 28 days depending on a month it is gonna take some time to play out that being said we are getting the white line again the 5x wasn't moving average crossing potentially into the 21 and that honestly hasn't happened in a really long time and the last time that kind of happened was basically in this area here that was in late 2010 after the overall financial stuff Christ isn't some of the trying to come out of it it could be somewhat here looking at basically of April of 2008 where we had actually the which is more significant and what we trade here is when the 8 EMA crosses through the 21 signaling some potential stronger downside and this is just something to be mindful about I'm not ringing the bell I'm not throwing the alarms I'm not he's saying I need evac immediately and need help here but potentially ringing and looking at potential downside once this EMA's get too close to the 21 and once they actually physically cross we could be seeing some potential downsides and we'll just have to see what goes from there again guys thank you so much for checking out the channel and if you enjoy all this stuff don't forget to Like and subscribe we do have a awesome discord server that we operate and just share trading ideas we trade memes and things like that and then also like I mentioned before we have a patreon as well we just kind of share charts I share some of the watch lists that I use I want to be posting some just videos directly to patreon discussing some market trends and things like that but again ] you
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