저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee는 최근 조정이 단기 바닥일 수 있으며 현재 주요 지지선에 도달했다고 주장. 메모리·반도체·neocloud·암호화폐가 지지선 부근이고 펀더멘털(AI)이 유지되므로 리스크 대비 수익이 좋은 셋업이라 봄. 다만 Dyslexic Investor 진행자는 단기 조정은 정상 범위(약 7%)이며 VIX 18은 아직 우려 수준이 아니라고 봄. 과도한 공포 대응 매도는 경계하라는 입장. 호재 수치는 WTI 100달러 이상, 나스닥 약 7% 조정 등.
다듬은 글
What up traders, what up investors? Ken here from Dyslexic Investor. And yes, Tom Lee is saying buy buy buy in the sense of hey, we could be hitting a short-term bottom Friday, this past Friday or this coming Monday. Technically speaking, he's saying that we're at support. Technically speaking, he's also saying that if you're an investor, he clearly said not a trader, that we could be seeing some market bottoms here within the memory space, the MUs, the Marvell's, the SM SH kind of ETFs.
Uh the Neo clouds, the R N E, the Nibius, all those kind of ones as well could be potentially bottoming here. The fear has swept out of the market potentially in the short-term, emphasis in the short-term. Um but Mr. Tom Lee has also said that hey, this pullback is nothing to completely run off and and and sell everything, which is is I think sound advice.
You can definitely see on CNBC that they're uh uh selling, uh making market sell off, the VIX is spiked and all this stuff. Like I think they're again, they're a news organization. They're they the talking heads want to kind of create that fear and that fear does trickle all over into the market. So just be mindful.
Let's be set. Let's cut to the Tom Lee clip of his interview just this past Friday um speaking to the correspondent of CNBC. And then after that clip, we'll go deep dive and looking at some of the charts and some of the stocks that he mentioned and seeing how uh myself could be potentially playing and looking at the markets from this standpoint.
All right, let's cut to the Tom Lee. Let's bring in CNBC contributor Fundstrat's Tom Lee. So this is Dan Greenhaus and Ed Clissold of Ned Davis Research. Thank you all for being here. Um so Tom, let's start with you. You know, the market today kind of has the contours of an unwind here. You've got the VIX significantly higher as well.
What do you make of the the market as as we've seen it today? Well, thanks for having me. You know, the market has been kind of climbing a wall of worry. AI fears escalated this week. And I think because it's Friday and there's I think concerns that, you know, with oil rising, you know, could tensions or the war escalate over the weekend.
So, I think it makes not to doesn't surprise me that markets are unwinding today. But I think before viewers think that this is, you know, the start of a bigger downturn. I mean, markets are at support. Uh our tech technical strategist Mark Newton thinks we actually probably could rally. We either bottom today or on Monday.
And I think from a fundamental perspective, I mean, as much as we should, you know, respect the idea that like AI debt markets uh may not be that confident, you know, the fundamental story and the and the drivers of AI are intact. So, to me, when you have the fundamentals holding in and and markets getting fearful, it's actually a pretty good risk reward setup for investors.
So, you'd be Tom buying this pullback everywhere or there specific pockets that you feel like are kind of reaching that that technical area that makes them attractive for a bounce? I I think the setup is for a buy on the memory, the semis, you know, the the the neo clouds, uh you know, tech broadly, crypto.
I think that they've all pulled back to support levels at a time when people have become maybe very fearful of fundamentals. But as you know, if the fundamentals remain intact, then it's it's a coiled spring. All right. So, we just watched the Tom Lee clip. So, he was saying US oil or WTI, which is West Texas basically crude, over 101.
Yes, it is touching near near all-time highs on Friday. This is on a daily side. This doesn't mean this is a cause of concern because higher oil means higher cost, higher cost of goods, inflation, blah blah blah blah. So, but this could be particularly fixed with some of the stuff from uh on a political standpoint.
So, higher oil, you can kind of see here on the chart, the Darvas box is at the top end here. Um it has pretty much keep in mind of like look at this rally. It's been 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 days, okay? Can you Can you everyone remember the number 10 here? Uh it's been going up. So, now on the on the flip side, we're going to be looking at the cloud scalers, which like uh IREN, uh Nimbus.
It looks a little Let's look at N NBIS here. Let's count the numbers. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9. So, 9 days. So, it's it's literally been This is not even a stair-step lower. This is just like walking off the cliff. Um again, looking on the daily side here. [clears throat and cough] Now, looking here on the daily side of NBIS, you can kind of see here it's been 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ish 10 almost.
Uh and it's hitting right at the 200-day. So, you can see that it's hit the 200-day before and bounced uh quite aggressively, but it was higher lows. This is also at higher low than this one. It was already breaking below 147. Technically speaking, that's when we're in in potentially in very much sell-off territory or like it it things are starting to correct at this standpoint.
Um if you watched the live stream, we would talk about IREN quite a bit. We've had the trampoline team come out here. If you're not familiar with the trampoline team, it's a Gary and and Jason here. They deploy the support level levels to kind of help hold the market for us. That being said, they have not done their job on IREN basically because that trampoline level has broken.
This one is very much a little bit inverse and look different than the one we just looked at of NBIS because this is well already below the 200-day and the structure of this chart does not look great as others. And then some of the other names that we want to talk about, we want to talk about like some of the cloud names, the energy names, the Marvell's, they're kind of coming back down not as steep as some of the other more beaten down stocks.
It's coming right back into the 50-day. Credo, uh this provides the connectivity for the data centers. Pretty aggressive downward trend not like the 8 to 10-day negative downward tape, but all of last week it was basically the bears came in and won every single day there. And then the semiconductor space.
So this is again this is the ETF for the semiconductors basically summing everything up. You got the 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 maybe 9 days if you want to count those 2 days here. Um basically for the last 2 weeks-ish it's just been selling off. And it was near all-time highs. Basically now we're at basically 20% from all-time highs.
We're coming into some potential level support here. That 200-day is going to be might be catching a bid there. We'll see on how that one plays out. But again, like like Tom Lee said, I'm like, "Hey, these memory names, things have everyone has just thrown everything out with the bathwater. Maybe some stocks should have been thrown out.
Maybe people got a little bit too speculative on some of those stocks. But that being said that there are some really good names that held up. Like Nvidia, yes, it was at all-time highs, but now it's 12% from all-time highs. Like it dropped quite a bit uh with the within last week and a half as well.
It's past the 50-day, which is the guardrail that we like to use here. Um basically, the CAN SLIM method uh with that that guardrail around the golden line there. On the weekly side, the trend still looks very much intact from my perspective. Um and seeing that that purple line still going up at like a 32° angle here, which we like to see.
Um if it starts breaking to like the 200 levels, then we have to to get the trampoline uh the bros out uh and Jason and Greg uh to potentially uh help us with that support level there. Looking at basically some of the overall markets, with the Nasdaq, again, a lot of these tech stocks got thrown out.
Like, that's a pretty aggressive move in a large ETF, right? So, we hit all-time highs, sold back really aggressively. Um actually, let me look at what the data is saying here. So, basically, 7% in about 10 days. So, like we talked about that eight or nine 10 days, 7% in a pullback in the market is completely normal.
That is a typical range pullback. If we're talking something a 10 15% plus, so if this continued to drop, and let's say we went down, let's see here, to the 200-day, that would still be considered normal cuz it's like around that 10% level. When we start seeing critical days of like two or three percent a day for multiple days, that's going to be uh the tides are changing.
Uh people are shuffling the the cards on the deck, uh meaning that hey, the the hedge funds are are are putting more capital into these consumer staples versus this. They're going to protection. They're going to treasuries. Like why would I own equities if I can get a great yield on treasuries and so forth with the bonds.
And looking at this potential play, we really would when we once we start hitting like the 15% plus, that's going to be this concerning days. Like as again, if you remember just this this past year, we had that pretty substantial correction in April, but it was a slowly grind lower and then we had a flush, right?
So, to give you perspective on that play from from that high to that low is about 12%. So, that's not Again, that's not a bear rotation. That again, that it falls into that line of those those levels there. But that took uh what is this? 43 days to do that? Uh to drop 12%. We dropped 7% a little bit more than half of that in like 10.
Um 25% faster or what is it? 1/4 1/4 of the time we already dropped more than half of that percentage. So, it's very sticky market in that sense cuz you can kind of see that in the a lot of names like Dell. Holy smokers, right? This thing was the market darling in in a matter of less than a week, it went from almost a 600 back down to 450.
It's lost $150 a share in about it went from all-time highs and dropped 24% basically um in a matter of five days. Like this is this is just like whoa, speculations are just getting out. They're taking their risk off the off the board. We're seeing that potentially with the volume spiking as well. The Vix like the the CNBC person shared that it is climbing, but it's still only at 18% $18.
That's nothing too concerning there. Once we hit above 20, that's going to be more concerning at these levels. But, I want everyone to focus of like, okay, that that was a really poopy poopy week. Um everything it it it will have market uh corrections and and rotations. Like Chamath says, let's see what happens this week.
Uh he's saying again, potential that market bottom coming potentially Monday. Again, these these are these are he doesn't have a crystal ball, I don't have a crystal ball, I don't think you have a crystal ball as well. But, yeah, let's stay tuned. Let's see what happens. And uh yeah, let's let's let's continue to watch the market.
Uh again, set stops, don't overtrade, don't put money into the gambling machine and just continuously churn churn your money in the in the market uh and just make precise trades. Be careful out there, and I'll catch you guys on the flip side. Peace.
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