저자: DyslexicInvestor · 외국인
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결론: 빌 애크먼의 SPAC PSTH에 230만 달러를 건 '매트리스 킹' 베팅을 소개하며, 주식 직접 매수를 선호하고 옵션은 신중히 접근해야 한다는 투기성 분석이다. PSTH 베팅 개요: 매트리스 킹이 여러 계좌로 20~27달러대에 매수해 230만 달러를 투입했고, 당시 약 6만 달러 수익 상태라고 소개. SPAC 구조 설명: 일반 SPAC과 달리 워런트가 아닌 주식 보유를 유도하는 구조로, 합병 실패 시 워런트가 무가치해지는 문제를 피하려는 설계라고 설명. 프리미엄 및 주가 흐름: 순자산 대비 프리미엄이 약 18~20% 수준으로 높고, 20달러에 상장 후 24달러 부근까지 상승. 발표된 인수 대상은 없음. 애크먼 소개: 퍼싱스퀘어 펀드 운용자로, 과거 철도주 턴어라운드, 제이씨페니 시도, 허벌라이프 공매도 손실, 팬데믹 중 공매도 수익 등 이력을 언급. 인수 타깃 전망: 매트리스 킹 인터뷰 기준 기업가치 100~150억 달러 규모의 성숙한 유니콘(예: Stripe, Airbnb, Epic Games, Robinhood 등 언급)을 찾을 것으로 봄. 전략 및 옵션 분석: 발언자는 본인은 주식을 선호하며, 옵션이 필요하면 내가격(ITM) 콜을 권장. 2021년 3월 만기 행사가별 세타 감소 사례(15달러 행사가 일 0.39달러, 30달러 행사가 일 1.20달러)를 들어 외가격 옵션의 시간가치 소멸 위험을 강조. 리스크 경고: 발언자는 매우 투기적이며 0원이 될 수 있고, 합병이 수년간 지연될 수도 있다고 명시. 포트폴리오의 10% 미만 권장. 대상 자산 가격 방향 예측: 대상 자산 목록 중 직접 예측 발언은 없음(PSTH 단기 가격 흐름에 대한 기술적 목표 2450센트 언급은 있으나 자산 목록 외 종목).
다듬은 글
what up traders whatever investors can hear from dyslexic investor and yes the mattress king has striked again his next overall bet if you're not familiar with the mattress king within wall street bets forms this is the guy who went completely long purple mattress uh many months ago before it was in the 20 30 range he was buying it well below seven or ten dollars and has held the shares and options and really just made a boatload from that his next overall bet and what he's looking at is actually pershing square's uh spack stock that is ticker symbol psth you can see here he goes he does a very well uh well thought out post on explaining on what he's doing which potentially he's doing of course highlighting as always please do your own due diligence very key point here and risk at your own uh at your own cause basically so with that being said we can look at what he's basically looking at he kind of bleeped out his uh information kind of made like a middle finger here kind of that was kind of funny but you can see the amount of volume that is coming in through i think it's through multiple different accounts that he has um at buying at certain prices at the 27 or 23 and 70 cents um adding to these positions uh to continue going higher here again not up a crazy amount but again he has 2.3 million dollars in this deal overall i mean he's up just a hair uh basically sixty thousand dollars as of a couple days ago or like a couple hours ago right lack of better words um with this being said what is what's his game plan here he kind of breaks it down what he's what he's planning to do um i really really going to link this down below so definitely this is a pretty well thought out understanding of what the spac really means he really goes into the details of what the spax vehicle's purpose is um and how it translates into being a little bit different than other specs on creating instead of getting these warrants and if the deal fails those warrants go useless it's really paying for the people to hold on to the shares until after the merger so there's not just like that that flip-floppy uh crazy volatility you see with some of these space stocks going up and down left and right before they even have the merger um coming through so be mindful of that be looking at this as well he breaks down exactly what the premium is on net assets of course it came out about twenty dollars it has gone up substantially to around twenty four twenty three dollars as we're currently speaking so what are they looking for who's who's running this blah blah blah if you're not familiar with persian square that's run by mr uh bill ackman so that's this little uh good-looking dude here get a little silver fox here um you'd probably see him on cnbc he's the guy who uh revitalized some old railroad companies i believe uh in the 2000s maybe late 90s tried to turn around jcpenney and then also shorted a herbal life to major losses but then also made a billion dollars over the pandemic because he went crazy on uh shorting the market uh into the march uh time frame into april so that's little bill ackman there he runs that uh persian square fund uh that's a basically a huge hedge fund that he manages there so what are some potential takeaways from where they can be looking at this article again i'll look this uh look at this as well so the billionaire is investing as a special purpose acquisition company again that's back so they're gonna be looking at some mature unicorns so again mature unicorns can be anything from some of the things that are being thrown around even um mr mattress king pointed out was like stripe airbnb uh epic games robin hood et cetera et cetera very mature companies and the interview that he gave was saying that he's looking for a company that's worth between 10 to 15 billion um again what do you mean by evaluations that can be very uh swayed in either direction and then really looking for these again mature unicorns that have high quality venture-backed businesses so as a takeover targets so again that you can speculate all you want on that there's a lot of mature unicorns that are currently not publicly traded um some of them that come to mind like we just mentioned there before so the thing i like about this guy he's at telling you what he's actually doing in his play so he's he's clearly saying he is not doing any options not trading a single option in this overall play here so he's literally just buying uh all the common shares as well um so buying so basically buying all these comments and he's saying that of course gambling is buying for these options especially out of the money options so that being said these uh buy commons as they come with the warrants and they're good at dated call options which is my preference um some also is selling the 2250 to 20 dollar strike price is for small potato gains again when you're selling puts or you're getting a little bit of premium here and once we switch over to tasty versus the account that i use um an affiliate link down below uh for setting up a fantastic options and equities trading account that being said he's also saying very clear not doing options he said if i would have to buy options i would buy in the money option so that that's what the im stands for there at 15 dollars or going again stocks well above 15 so it's going to be in the money um of just doing a strictly option play would be work because again if you're buying anything like in the delta of like 85 to 90 dollars it's basically sorry 80 to 90 delta it's basically like owning shares for you big ballers he says buying out of the money calls in december or later marcher june is better but i don't think these are the best plays i still believe commons uh by comments he means the common shares uh the stock is just the best play for you big gamblers who only do warrants i think you might be a good player only if the deal goes through warrants or strike price of 23 and could be called for a lower 30s but but not sure about that thing again wish you all well godspeed this is not investment nice do your own research so thank you my friend uh mr mattress king for another fantastic due diligence there let's go ahead and flip over to the charts here we can go look at that oh wrong window there we go so looking at the chart here again this kind of came live around 20 and it ran up pretty a little random pretty fast came back down and now it's still running up here to that 24 range where we're currently kind of trading at as of today um again it came live at 20 so it has still a little bit of premium it has not announced on what they're buying it just has that little bit of like that eighteen to twenty percent uh premium on it right now because people are a little giddy maybe a little fomo and really getting into these plays here so looking at this play looking at some stock itself at the charts we're hitting a nice level here at the one two seven two extension which is around twenty three dollars and ninety cents the next overall target would be around the 2450 to potentially run again this is going to be heavily heavily tied to any kind of announcement or work could or cannot be going um again we have no idea what company they're looking to buy so this is the that's what comes with the spec you're just kind of speculating that bill ackman the silver fox will have a fantastic idea on getting into xyz company for whatever reason so that being said let's go ahead and switch over to tastyworks again this is the what i use for options and equities trading so basically we're going to kind of go through the scenarios that he kind of highlighted out on basically just buying common stocks and then going all the way to selling a premium to buying out of the money and buying in the money calls so again not many too many options out on the board here we only have monthlies and that's november december january march and june so various large array or smorgasbord a buffet of options but you have to be very careful on what you choose here if you want to decide to do options for me honestly november won't even be in the question because again that's only 31 days away and i'm not seeing anything major happening in that time frame would rather give myself a little bit more time to play these as well again i'm also a huge fan of just buying the stock if you're really just like hey let me just put in two hundred dollars a thousand dollars ten thousand dollars whatever your limit is just to kind of speculate on each of that numbers varies on what you willing to risk on to person to person i have no problem initially maybe just buying some shares here and seeing where it goes as a very speculative play less than 10 of my portfolio that being said looking here around this january and march time frame is something that kind of gets a little bit lucrative especially in the march time frame we're seeing that 25 30 and 35 strike price again those are the out of money options so there's going to be less time decay is not going to be really friendly to those folks something around like the 20 or even like what he stated the 15 is going to be your better bet because that time decay is going to be substantially less so we can look at the time decay here so the time decay on the 15th strike so the 15 strike price on the 19th of march of 2021 um is about 39 cents a day you can see that right down here in the middle of the screen here there and we have a 92 delta going there that being said if so we looked at the 30 uh one we're looking for a substantial more uh theta decay at a dollar twenty so we went from basically 39 cents or 40 cents all the way nearly to a buck 20.
so only four times the amount of theta decay again that option is only worth two bucks so you're losing a dollar twenty a day that doesn't sound really doesn't sound really fancy does it and it's got a very low delta and of course the probability of profit um is very low because again it's out of the money and it's a very speculative place so i cannot hesitate that enough this is a very very speculative play on what could be happening here so be very mindful of that um this can go to zero they can never have a deal they could wait for two or three years before they find a deal and this thing just kind of be bounced around uh therefore and then even going down to that 35 dollar strike price you see that theta kind of uh kick up a little bit as well with again much lower delta probability profit and theta as well going all the way out like this for example so we just like hey i know that they're going to buy xyz um in the next 30 days this state of decay right here on the 30 call is still at a buck 50 a day that's pretty substantial for the 35 cents for that basically the option to buy that and of course the higher you go into the money that theta decay really starts deteriorating so that's why his suggestion is if you do play options make sure you buy within the strike price or within the money here so definitely something to be looking for again highlighting if you're a big baller you're most likely to be doing options um especially with the wall street bets that's the audience that he's currently talking to and what they'd be potentially looking at with this looking as well this can easily go to 25 30 who knows what can happen again very speculative be very careful out there guys um again key takeaways before i let you go the stock could go easily higher can go lower it could be bouncing around just look around at some of the other spacks that we've seen again this one's slightly structured a little bit differently than those other ones again it's really rewarding holding the stock uh rather than just kind of bouncing around maybe just trading it around it so that being said guys please don't forget to like and subscribe again in the flip side peace you
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