저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
나스닥·AI 관련주 급락 속에서 Tom Lee는 AI 매도세가 끝나가고 있으며 AI 투자 자금은 충분하고 수익을 내고 있어 건전한 조정이라고 주장. 금리가 5%에서 하락해 긴축 우려가 완화됐고, 반도체·소프트웨어·크립토·금융 등 광범위한 경기민감주를 매수 대상으로 제시. 1997년 시스코 사례를 들어 현재가 초기 단계라고 봄. 진행자는 나스닥 약 7.5~8% 하락, SMH 200일선 지지 여부를 차트로 점검하며 손절 원칙을 강조.
다듬은 글
What up traders? What up investors? Ken here from Dyslexic Investor and we're looking at Tom Lee banging his the hammer on the desk and saying it is time to stop selling AI names, giving a smorgasborg of different names to be looking at. He hinted that the the Neo clouds are basically uh ripe for picking even though they're well below the 200 day some of them and quite beaten up on a lot of different other components.
uh the AI trade is basically on. It's just a little blimp in the system and things are continue to rise. He gave a great uh example of Cisco during 97 run from 97 and had a 50% haircut but then still ran quite a bit uh nearly over 200% at that point before even even crashing anything close. So without further ado, let's cut to Tom Lee.
Then we'll look at some charts and so forth. But first and foremost, have to show a fantastic uh meme that we created um that Tom Lee is going to be coming in and saving the day. Let's cut to that and then to the CNBC MVU. We'll catch you back after that looking at some charts. Everything will be fine.
All right, welcome back. Another check on the markets. NASDAQ is tumbling as you know. Dow is now down more than 6% from its all-time high set just earlier this month. Our next guest sees opportunity within that sell-off. Joining me now is Funst Strats Tom Lee. He's also a CNBC contributor. Good to have you back.
Um, you say that AI concerns are preventing AI from becoming a bubble. Some would suggest that these concerns are merely popping what had become a bubble. Uh, God, I know there's going to be two sides of that debate, but the reason I'm going to say AI concerns are preventing a bubble is that we're continuing to see astounding discoveries made by AI.
I mean whether it's the muse and the agents but maybe two weeks ago open AI and discovering 770 math problems. This is not the end or late cycle for AI discovery and even the productivity boost. So as long as we're starting to see advances there every dollar of capital raised for AI is generating returns.
I think it's actually really healthy that the debt markets are sort of preventing a runaway uh speculative boom in AI. So I I think it's actually a very healthy correction that way. So you're you're focused more on the derivative impacts I I suppose you could say rather than spending concerns, funding concerns, capital crunch concerns, all the above.
Uh yeah, I mean unfortunately AI does require a lot of dollars. Um, we did a report a few weeks ago showing that if AI is going to spend 30 trillion over the next 25 years, one, there's actually plenty of investment dollars available because interest income from just American households annually is about 7 trillion.
So, you know, a trillion of that can be funded by just the interest income earned by Americans. But the mobile network build was about 25 trillion and roadways are 25 trillion. I think AI is a more important infrastructure build arguably than mobile and it's about the same dollar. So I I don't think there's too much money being thrown at AI today.
Would you buy the selloff yet? Yes, I think we're at the I think we're near the end stages of the selloff because it's become a consensus short uh to be shorting tech and I think yields which was really worrying markets as you know they've backed away. I mean, you've got two things that were headwinds before.
The Fed quite hawkish, now it's flipping being potentially doubbish and interest rates, which were touching five, people fearing 6% are now back below 5%. I think the only things you have now is the debt markets are kind of closed at the moment. And then of course the uncertainty about the war. I mean, would you if you say yes, I'd buy it, where would you buy it?
Would you you stay just with these largest AI related stocks in the market? Yeah, I Scott, I think the AI uh and the bottlenecks of the memories and the Nvidia and the Mag 7, they they're being sold because it is easy to short them now. And I think of course people are worried about the credit side, but I think they're bottoming, but I also like the software and I I like the crypto here.
I think kind of the whole broad cyclical trade I'd be pretty bullish on. And as you know, financials haven't been rallying, but rates are coming down. So, I think there's a lot of opportunity. This is what I view as a coiled stren spring because the fundamentals have been holding in. Wow. I mean, if you look at, you know, the the semiconductor index or the DRAM ETF, for example, we show that one.
Um, there's so much destruction within that trade. I I just I wonder what that chart what story that chart is really going to be telling in the weeks, if not months ahead. Uh Scott, I I think it just shows you what a battle AI is today. But keep in mind that in 1997, 3 years after the launch of the public internet and browsers, uh Cisco, which was the biggest stock at the time, had a massive 50% draw down partly because Alan Greenspan was saying we had a irrational exuberance and then later kind of hinted at preemptive hikes not too dissimilar to today.
Cisco went had a 50% correction, went down to five, a year later was 18. I I think the setup is similar. You know, Chat GBT is basically crossing its third anniversary. I think we're so early in this AI trade, but it's understandable for people to be worried. I mean, a lot of people made money and there's a lot of profit taking as well.
All right. All good stuff from Tom Lee there. Of course, being very much not completely bullish, but really selling the sentiment of like, hey, calm down. This is just a little blimp in the system and let's can see if we can continue um the run here. This is maybe some handwashing, hand ringing um and we'll see how that one plays out.
So without further ado, let's look at the NASDAQ. As you can see, the NASDAQ has been down quite a bit. The golden line of opportunity here. It is well below the 50-day, not by much. We're from all-time highs of only about seven and a half% almost 8% down. So that's basically the move that we've had basically the last like give it like two weeks.
Um we just have kind of been selling off and in in a lightly flavored correction. It's not a massive correction. A correction would be well over 10%. That would be putting us a little bit back down to another 200 day which still could happen. Like I'm not saying it can't. Um couple of the names that he talked about we can look at the bigger names like SMH.
This is the uh semiconductor space. uh looking at yes this is much more uh uh selling off. We had 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10. So basically last two weeks just like the NASDAQ has been selling off but guess what it is coming right into the 200 day which is right here. So, we're going to be putting out the trampoline, boys.
Um, aka putting down a level of support, uh, there to see if that can hold here, that trampoline, and we'll see if that can bounce off that level because, uh, Tom Lee says that the AI selling needs to stop. This kind of uh, repeats um, from what we saw basically in the summertime coming down to this this 518ish, 520 level.
We'll see if that can kind of continue. Some other names that he talked about um were the the scalers, right? The uh u the ones that we you hear a lot about the IRS, the IRA. These are the uh scalers that are very independent that are contracted from large hyperscalers. They're given money. They're given bulk of cashache and they set up uh Nvidia chips and they set up the data centers for Meta.
They set it up for Microsoft and so forth. The one you probably know the most is probably the Core Weeave, but there's a lot of these ones out here. We have this one. Then we have Nimbus as well. These are, as you can see, extremely broken, well below the 200 day. Not all of them are created equal. We had uh NBIS actually break past the 200 day.
uh just recently the last couple days. Um this is in you have to say it if you're technically speaking in bearish territory. Um, with that of course we can look at core weave. That's the one that got a lot of press about their financing options about yes like Tom Lee said there is going to be money in capitalable capital cap sorry you're going to need a lot of capital to build out out of this lot of this infrastructure.
But then they cut to the Jensen clip and they said hey guess what things will figure out. we'll figure out how to cross this bridge. We'll figure out how to to to traverse this terrain. Um, someone else is going to come in here and and bid these things up. This is definitely well, again, just like we just looked at, this one's not really created equal.
This is well below the 200 day. It had that crazy IPO run and it has not seen that uh 80ish 185 in forever. You can kind of see here I put a big arrow. Hey, let's see if it breaks 150. It has not been completely It's let's literally from this level where I put it in, it's lost $100 per share. So, um this is not one I'm going to be banging the drums on.
But let's look at ones that are actually coming into some levels of resistance. Um the Nvidas here, right? The Nvidia, this is the the picks and shovels of this age of information and technology. It is coming in right to the long-term trend line, which is that purple line here. This is a little bit better looked at.
When you look on the weekly side, this is still that purple upward trend. We're seeing that at that beautiful angle. Let's see if that can kind of hold. It can maybe touch past it, but we don't want it to crash past it dramatically with a very large red candle. That would kind of set things uh uh a little bit offkilter.
A lot of the other name other names that we saw kind of get beaten up over the last couple days. MU we talked about that has definitely broken the short-term trend. It has not broken the Darvis box. There's a lot of not short reports but short sellers saying, "Hey, this price action is not great. Guess what?
Um, we're never going to see MU break this level again. We'll see if that continues." As of right now, they are correct. Um, it is very beaten down. even this past like 3 weeks that's a pretty large drop from basically having uh fairly good earnings basically showing great growth but um this whole financing AI spend and capex and when is revenue going to come in kind of scenario has really thrown cold water on a lot of these stocks.
So we're seeing this hit that uh basically they're on 1100 and has crashed down to like 857. So now if it starts crashing below that 750 level, that's where it's going to be quite concerning and and getting into that more negative uh bare territory there. Um we can look at BE. They just had earnings I believe after the bell today.
Not looking great because they're trading at 181 here it looks like down below. Um that's uh not uh sorry 202 it looks like. Oh, know why that just reset like that. There we go. Thank you. So, it's a little bit trading a little bit lower here. That's not uh a great sign. Let's see how I have I haven't read that full report on that one yet.
We talked about Nvidia. Uh SpaceX got hit quite a bit today as well with a a massive earnings talking about potentially the merger with Tesla, all kinds of things. This has had a a beautiful run, but now a strong sell-off. This also could be tied to some lockups that kind of came through where people were selling some shares.
I think there was like 350 million shares I believe that were up for uh uh for lockups actually yesterday and today was basically after the earnings report I believe. Um so that was quite a bit. You can see here on the volume side it did pick up a little bit. We're kind of getting right back to that 50-day.
It kind of had a nice little run but kind of gave it all back. But I think that uh anyone who's listened to anything about SpaceX, this is just a phenomenal company and they're going to be just uh taking over many things. Um Crowd Strike is another AI name that's kind of made a pretty massive pullback, but it's holding the 50-day quite well from my opinion.
Um we'll have to put out the trampoline uh boys here. Um and seeing if this this can kind of build that level of resist resistance that we're looking for, level of support there. We'll see if that trampoline can bounce that market higher. But on that note, again, Tom Lee went on CNBC putting his neck out, honestly.
Um, and and and is is very I appreciate it because because it's it's very hard to go out on a day that the NASDAQ's down nearly 3%. Um, a lot of the AI names are down 8, nine, 10. Some some are down 15%, some are down 20% over the last week or so. um even more in some cases and and really sticking his head out and saying things like that.
So, I'm not saying the bottom end is in today or tomorrow, but um this has been a pretty rough selling for a lot of these names. Um we'll see if that can continue. Just remember, uh set limits. Do not try to catch falling knives. Um the market will always eat you up. Don't try to fight the trend. Look at price action.
Be disciplined. And again, thank you guys so much for watching. Please don't forget to like and subscribe, and I'll catch you guys on the next video or the next live stream. Godspeed. Peace.
Comments 0