저자: Dividendology채널진행자 · 외국인
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개인 포트폴리오에서 IBM을 매도하기로 한 이유를 설명. IBM은 매출·EPS·FCF/주가 감소, 배당 성장 둔화(5년 0.64%), FCF 배당성향 상승(약 80%대 TTM)으로 장기 배당 목표에 부적합. 평가는 높아진 반면 AI 경쟁력은 불확실. 반면 Broadcom(AVGO)은 EPS·FCF 급성장으로 보유 유지. Peter Lynch의 '몇 회 이닝' 비유로 성장주 매도 시점을 설명.
다듬은 글
there is currently a stock in my personal portfolio that I'm planning on selling now a lot of the times when people plan on selling it's because their investment hasn't performed the way they wanted or some news has come along that has changed their investment thesis but that's not the case in my scenario in fact the position I'm planning on selling is a position that I'm up nearly 50% on and also have a yield on cost of close to 5% on so why would I plan on selling a stock that I've seen such large gains on and is also paying me very large dividends well let's take a step back for a moment if we look at my growth chart here we can see broadcom stock ticker avgo this is a stock I'm up 163.5 3% on I could have sold when I was up around 50% on this position and locked in quite a few gains but it turns out I would have missed out on massive gains from this position so again why would I plan on selling out of the stock that I'm currently selling now there's a lot of different investing theory on when to sell a stock but I believe it's best articulated from the great investor Peter Lynch so let's go ahead and turn to a quick clip of him talking about this subject and then I'm going to reveal what stock I'm selling selling and why I'm selling it when you were actively managing money you presumably were under the same pressures as other fund managers to show performance results did that incline you to sell too quickly sometimes I think my greatest mistakes are you know it's it's funny on a stock all you can lose is 100% I've done that but your great mistakes is selling a good company and then doubles then it triples and cuples because you make a lot of mistakes and so it's ones that go up tenfold like call the 10 Baggers so some of my mistakes just saying oh my God the stock is too high and I was wrong and you had a figure out what inning am I in in this baseball game I sold Toys R R Us way too early it went up 20 fold after I sold I did the same thing at Home Depot those are probably my two greatest mistakes ever made when should you sell well you ought to find out why you bought a stock if you're saying it's a sickle company and they're doing poorly and they're doing awful you wait till things are getting better they're doing terrific and then you sell it but with a Growth Company you have to say Walmart's case 10 years after they went public you could have bought the stock and made 500 times your money because they still are only in 15% of the United States and they could say why why can't they go to 17 why can't they go to 19 why can't they go to 23 so for the next four decades going around the country so you have to say to yourself in this stock I have a 10 year story a 20 year story you'll be able to write that down and follow that that's what I do with a company and that's your decision that's how you sell it Peter Lynch dropped a lot of wisdom on us in that video but one of my favorite quotes that he had was in the form of a metaphor he said what inning of the baseball game are you in for example let's take avgo broadcom once again if we jump over to my profitability spreadsheet and plug in AVG and hit enter again we can see all this data is going to load in with the help of the ticker data add-on and Google Sheets and like always you can download any of my sheets at ticker dat.com in the link in the description but look at the earnings per share growth of this company look at the tenear revenue kager 30.4% look at the tenure net income kager 38.25 per.
this is a rapidly growing company if we jump over to the screener tab just look at the free cash flow per share growth over the past decade going from $1.97 per share to 2023 $42.49 look at the revenue per share growth it has been explosive and like we just saw earnings per share is rapidly growing as well so it's clear this company is not in the ninth inning they are rapidly growing their earnings rapidly growing their free cash flow per share and also growing their dividend payments over time which will help me achieve my long-term goal of one day living off dividend income so despite the fact I'm up over 163% on this position I have no interest in selling my shares even if I saw a slight decline in the coming months or even years I still wouldn't sell this position now in contrast let's take a look at the stock I'm planning on selling and the stock I'm planning on selling out of in my portfolio is IBM I'm currently up 47.24 on this position and when I originally bought in it had a very nice starting dividend yield and like I said my yield on cost is now close to 5% if we jump back over to my stock screener tab let's come up here and plug in IBM and hit enter and again all this data will automatically load in thanks to Ticker data now immediately we can see some things we're probably not a big fan of so first off we can see from 2013 to 2023 we've basically been seeing declining earnings per share now look at the revenue per share Revenue per share has been declining as well definitely not something we want to see and then we have free cash flow per share and it's important to remember Dividends are paid out of free cash flow and free cash flow per share has not really been growing over the past decade so it's been difficult for this company to continue to increase dividends at a rate above inflation again not necessarily something we want to see if we jump over to the profitability and income statement tab what we can see here again declining revenues and declining net income over the past decade we come over here look at this charted out we can see the blue bar chart is showing our revenue and the red bar chart our cost of Revenue so again revenues are declining during this period now there is a quick bright spot for this company we can see their 10-year average gross profit ratio sitting at about 49.8 6% and now their gross profit ratio in 2023 was sitting at 55.4% so they have become slightly more profitable in a sense that their gross profit ratio has increased but just how much can that help when the company is rapidly decreasing their revenue year-over-year and so again we have to keep in mind the end goal for my personal portfolio is to one day be able to live off dividend income so I need to find companies that are growing their free cash flow per share year-over-year so that in turn they can grow their dividend payments year-over-year at a rate high above inflation so if we jump over to my dividend breakdown chart let's go ahead and come up here plug in IBM and hit enter we can see as of right now IBM has a very nice starting dividend yield sitting at about 3 .
52% and if we look at the yearly dividend history they've done a pretty good job of increasing those dividend payments every single year but that dividend growth has really been slowing over the last few years we can see the 10-year dividend kager sitting at 4.56% that's pretty decent overall especially for a more mature company but look how much it's slown down over the past 5 years 5-year dividend kager sitting at 0.64% that is far below the rate of inflation meaning that technically they are paying out less in dividends every single year and now like we've already seen the reason they're having to slow down these dividend payments so much is because their free cash flow is not growing really whatsoever and the end result of growing your dividend payments without growing free cash flow is you can see the free cash flow payout ratio over time starting to increase more and more we can see in 2013 this company had a very healthy free cash flow payout ratio sitting at about 30% but in 2022 it jumped up as high as 69% and 2023 around 50% so we don't like seeing the free cash flow payout ratio increase over time and payout ratio trailing 12 months as a result of earnings sitting at 80.5 1% this company simply could not sustain increasing their dividends at a rate above inflation so again when we consider the fact that I want to live off dividends that's the end goal with my portfolio yes the company has a nice starting dividend yield and a good history of increasing dividends but the dividend growth is slowing and their top and bottom lines simply aren't growing at a healthy rate now the other thing that Peter Lynch mentioned is we have to ask oursel why did we buy this company in the first place well when I originally bought this company I liked what I saw from a dividend perspective from the most part I knew the company had slowing dividend payments but I felt they were trading at a great valuation at the time and like we've already seen this is a position I'm currently up around 47% off so I've definitely been a beneficiary of this company riding up the market but now we can see those dividend payments are slowing down considerably and the company is trading at a much higher valuation now to be fair there is one potential growth driver for this company and that is their aid driven Solutions and IBM is considering implementing their AI in Healthcare customer service and financial services but we do have to take into consideration AI is becoming a highly competitive market they're going to have to compete with some of the biggest companies in the world like meta and Microsoft and to be quite Frank I don't know if that's something that IBM will be able to handle so I don't regret buying IBM in the first place obviously I'm up pretty big on this position at almost 50% but when I take into consideration what the goal of my portfolio is and that's living off dividends long term and I look at the future growth drivers of this company and I consider what inning of the game that they're in just like Peter Lynch mentioned I realize that it is time to move on from this company especially when I take into consideration things like opportunity cost so go ahead and let me know what you think of this move in the comments down below and like always if you'd like to able to download any of my spreadsheets and also get access to the ticker data add-on on Google Sheets that allows you to automatically import financial data straight into your spreadsheet then you can head over to Ticker dat.com at the link in the description so with all
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