저자: DavidSkarica · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 엔비디아 급락 반전 신호를 근거로 단기 시장 조정 위험을 경고하며 현금 확보와 방어적 태도, 일부 종목 공매도를 권고한다. [시장 전반 및 연말 흐름] 12월 28일 기준 거래일 2일을 남겨둔 시점이며, 세금 목적 손실 매도가 통상 나타나지만 작년에는 그런 현상이 크지 않았고, 3일간 약세 후 2월까지 하락이 있었다. 현재 시장이 다음 해를 기다리지 않고 고점을 형성할 수도 있다는 우려가 제기된다. [엔비디아 분석] 엔비디아는 전일 5% 상승 후 당일 5,000만 주 거래량과 함께 상승분을 모두 반납하는 아우터 리버설을 보였다. 이는 기술적으로 약세 신호다. 2002년 22달러→2달러, 2007~08년 35달러→4~5달러, 2011~12년 25달러→10달러 등 과거 세 차례 급등락 이력이 있고, 현재 급등은 역대 최대 규모로 2015년 중반 20달러에서 약 109달러까지 올랐다. 테슬라 전기차 및 게임/PC 칩 수요가 모멘텀 요인이나, 전기차 경쟁(GM, 포드, BMW)과 기술 경쟁이 심화될 것으로 보고 있다. 언급 방향: 엔비디아 하락 (단기, 공매도 포지션 보유 중). [과거 과열 종목 사례] Bidu(바이두 관련 온라인 자동차 기업, 2014년 약 100달러→약 19달러), 스케처스(2015년 급등 후 1년 내 55달러→20달러 미만), 블랙베리(130~140달러→7달러), 핏빗(50→7달러), 고프로(90→9달러), 3D프린팅 종목들의 붕괴를 예로 들며, 포물선형 급등 후 급락이 빠르게 나타난다고 주장. [FANG 및 주요 종목] 2016년 12월 CNBC에서 '5개 종목만 보유하면 된다'는 주장이 나왔으나 페이스북, 아마존, 넷플릭스, 구글 등은 트럼프 당선 이후 정체. 아마존은 750달러 지지선 이탈 시 700~650달러로 하락 가능성. 페이스북, 아마존 등은 새로운 주도주에 자금 이동이 필요하다고 봄. [시장 지표와 리스크] Investors Intelligence 강세 대 약세 비율 3배, VIX 12대, Rydex 강세펀드 대 약세펀드 비율 6배(2000년 고점보다 높음) 등 과열 지표. 강세장은 열광 속에서 무너진다는 존 템플턴 인용. 2016년 초 정책 불확실성 시 현금 보유자가 유리했다는 점을 강조하며 현재 현금 비중 확대를 권고. 폭락은 보통 가을에 발생하며 상반기 고점 형성 후 하반기 하락 가능성을 제시. 조정 시 기술적 지표(과매도 후 반등 실패 시 추세 전환 신호, 과매도 후 VIX 급등 시 단순 조정으로 해석) 관찰을 권고. [조건과 리스크] 중앙은행 개입 축소로 변동성 시대가 재개될 것으로 봄. 과열 신호가 지속되면 하락 위험이 커지며, 시기 예측은 어렵다고 스스로 인정. [출연자 전망] 단기적으로 시장 고점 및 조정, 엔비디아 등 과열 종목 붕괴 가능성에 대해 경계. 내년에는 변동성 확대에 따른 기회가 있을 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
엔비디아 급등 후 반락, 시장 고점 신호일까
Hello, this is Mike Swanson, Wall Street. I'm speaking with David Skarica, who runs the website addictprofits.net. How you doing today, Dave?
Hey, good, Mike. How you doing? Oh, I'm doing good. Well, this is an interesting day. It's Wednesday, December 28th. We only have two more days left of trading.
연말 세금 매도와 이례적인 하락
It's common practice for people to sell losing positions going into the year for tax reasons and hold on to their winners, waiting to sell them next year to defer taxes. However, last year that didn't really happen. There was a little bit of a drop over the last three days of last year, then of course we had the decline into February, and today it almost seems like the market could start to come off the highs already, without waiting until next year.
엔비디아의 거래량 급반전
One thing that has me concerned about today's market action is the stock Nvidia, one of the most popular stocks right now on Fast Money and in the Kramer show. It was up 5% yesterday. It's actually the top-gaining stock in the NASDAQ 100 year to date, but after being up about 5% yesterday, it had a huge reversal, giving up all of yesterday's gains on 50 million shares of volume.
If a stock like Nvidia, the big fad stock of the moment, isn't going to wait to defer taxes until next year, then maybe the market has topped for now. What do you think?
엔비디아가 버블 주식인 이유
Well, the thing about Nvidia is interesting. Just as a disclosure, this is actually a stock we have puts on in my service. We just bought some January 2018 puts on it.
One reason I started looking at Nvidia as a bubble stock last year is that it has had three defined booms and busts in the last 20 years. It blew off during the dot-com bubble, then again around '07 at the top of the housing bubble, and it also had a mini blow-off in 2011. And now it's had this one, which is actually the biggest, even bigger than the dot-com blow-off. So this seems to be a boom-and-bust stock.
In 2002, the stock went from $22 to about $2 a share. In 2007-08, it went from about $35 to about $4 or $5 a share. And from 2011 to 2012 it went from about $25 to $10 a share. So this stock has a history of huge ramp-ups followed by huge collapses, and this is easily the biggest of the ramp-ups.
The reason is that they do a lot of the electrical work, computer systems, and chips for Tesla's cars. With Tesla's new car coming up, there's excitement that they'll get a lot more sales there. They also make a lot of chips for computers, laptops, and the gaming systems people play video games on, which is really the only segment of the PC market that's growing. That's where people are getting really excited about the stock now.
포물선형 차트와 과거 급등주의 교훈
If you look at a chart, it is the craziest, most parabolic chart you've ever seen. This stock was still a $20 stock in the middle of 2015, and it's now at $109. As you said, there was a big outside reversal on huge volume: the stock was up $7 on the 27th and then down $8 on the 28th. Technically, that is usually pretty bearish. So I think this stock has blown off like that, and these stocks can go down fast.
I shorted some similar blow-off stocks in 2014. One was Bitauto, a Chinese online car-sales company, and another was Skechers, a shoe company, which blew off like this in 2015. Skechers went from $55 to under $20 within a year after that, and Bitauto went from almost $100 to about $167 a share. When you have these kinds of parabolic moves, the downside can be quite vicious. Nvidia is also going to face competition. They were kind of first to gain traction in electric-car technology, and BlackBerry is really getting into electric-car technology too.
투자 심리: 모두가 강세일 때
What you're talking about is really interesting. Forget the fundamentals. It's the psychology: Jim Kramer pumps this stock every day, and everyone is bullish on it. If you just looked at the chart, you'd think this is completely crazy and the stock is going to crash. But when you look at the commentary in the financial pages every day, people are really bullish on this company.
I remember very vividly watching a CNBC segment in December of last year. The people on there were saying, "You only need to own five stocks." At the time, market internals were very bad in the fall of 2015. Most stocks weren't doing well at all. The Russell 2000 actually declined in December. Someone on there said you only need to own five stocks: Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, and the rest of the market is bad. Now those five stocks aren't really doing anything. Not since the Trump election. Most of them are sitting on support levels and look like they could break them and have some sort of dip.
It seems to me now that instead, I've heard someone say, I can't remember if it was Kramer or someone on Yahoo Finance, "Forget FANG, only buy Nvidia." So we've gone from only owning five stocks to only owning that one stock. The important thing is that those five stocks are no longer five stocks you must own, and you can't just think, "I'm going to buy this one thing or these five individual stocks." It just doesn't work 12 months later.
과거 유행주들의 몰락
I think that's what's interesting. You're seeing people change up, and it shows how these people are momentum players who just follow whatever is being talked about. People remember that in 2014 and 2015, people were pumping stocks like Fitbit and GoPro, and now those stocks are completely dead and have collapsed, and you don't hear about them anymore. Fitbit went from $50 to $7, and GoPro went from $90 to $9. Those stocks completely collapsed, and you haven't heard about them since.
Two years ago, three years ago, people were pumping 3D printing stocks, and they've collapsed too. This seems to be what happens: you get a stock or a sector that's hot, and everyone wants to tell you to chase it. There's a great saying by John Templeton: bull markets die on enthusiasm. You can see that in individual companies. The news is always fantastic at the tops. So you think the stock can't go down, because the company's earnings are growing and it's so great. But that's when the good news is all priced in. That's usually when those stocks top and then tumble a great deal.
I always think about BlackBerry. I was watching a couple of those financial-crisis movies over the holidays, like *Too Big to Fail* and *The Big Short*. It's funny, because everyone in those movies is using a BlackBerry, since the movie takes place in 2008. A BlackBerry then was like an iPhone is now. Everyone had one. No one ever thought they would lose that market share. BlackBerry was a $130 or $140 stock, and now it's at seven. That was the peak of good news.
So my warning is this: you may think a stock is the dominant player and can never go lower, but history shows that these things, especially in technology, are very fickle. Competition comes in. Look at Tesla, another hot stock, which ties back to Nvidia because Nvidia supplies some of the computer systems for them. Now GM, Ford, and BMW are all making electric cars, so Tesla is going to face huge competition and lose market share, and the stock price will probably tank. Look at Netflix too: Amazon, Hulu, and other companies are doing streaming video, so Netflix is going to lose market share to them. Often these hot companies, which dominate some sector, can fall off.
아마존 차트와 시장 조정 가능성
The chart of Amazon is a good indication of the stock market right now. It has support at $750 and is floating just above that level, with resistance at $800. If it breaks $750, it's probably going down to $700 or $650. That doesn't mean we're going to get a crash, but we could easily see a dip. People should position themselves to take advantage of a dip by doing some selling now, so they can buy back later or buy whatever sectors are best. Stocks like Amazon, Netflix, Facebook, and the others that were touted so much for so long have kind of run their course. There's new leadership people should buy, or move their money. The only way to do that is to do some selling. You either sell now, or you don't want to be one of the people who always chases. The video is so popular, I think, just because it went up, and the more something goes up, the more people want to buy it, when they should be looking to buy dips.
The perfect example is Skechers. People don't need some fancy new technology to get excited about these stocks. Skechers makes shoes. Crocs was a hot stock in 2007, and they make shoes too. People get excited because the news is good and the stock is going straight up.
지표로 본 과열 경고
I agree. I now think we're in danger of a pretty good-sized selloff. Both of us turned bullish right after the election because we thought there would be repositioning because of the Trump victory. But every indicator I watch now is flashing warning signs. Investors Intelligence shows three times as many bulls as bears. The VIX is in the low teens, with a 12 handle. The Rydex ratio, which compares bull funds to bear funds, shows six times as much money in bull funds as in bear funds, even higher than at the 2000 top in the stock market. When you see technical and psychological indicators reaching such extremes, it's time to get very cautious, maybe defensive, or even start shorting.
Crashes don't happen only in February and March. History shows they usually happen in the fall, but we could start the topping period in the first or second half of the year and then really fall in the second half. We don't know how it will play out. On a correction, watch how these technical indicators act. If they just get slightly oversold, the market bounces, they get overbought again, and the market doesn't make new highs, that's probably a sign we've topped. If you get a correction, everything gets really oversold, everyone gets really scared, and the VIX spikes, that's probably just a correction. But right now we're getting danger signs from how bullish everyone is.
현금 보유의 중요성
If you go back to the beginning of the year, if you and I and everyone listening could go back to January 1st, 2016, the thing to have done would have been to hold cash and be ready to buy the pullback that came at the beginning of the year. Instead, people were fully invested, the market fell, they panicked, and it hurt them. If people had some cash at the start of the year, the whole year could have been set up differently for them. I think that's the case now for 2017. I've got some cash now, and I think people should have some cash too, because it's a position you can use later, next year, when the time's right.
In terms of shorting, like I mentioned Bitauto and Skechers, these stocks have absolutely collapsed even though the market has continued to go to all-time highs. What's interesting about these kinds of stocks is that they're always tough to time. Nvidia was parabolic at $60 or $70, and it's even more parabolic at $110.
잘 맞추기는 늘 어렵습니다. 하지만 포물선 형태로 급등하며 블로우오프(폭등 마감) 양상이 보이면, 시장이 어떻게 움직이든 그런 종목들은 대개 무너지게 됩니다. 그리고 시장까지 떨어지면 붕괴 폭은 더 커지겠죠. 참고로 2014년 여름 비다(BIDU)도 비슷하게 큰 거래량을 동반한 블로우오프가 나왔고, 그게 고점이었습니다. 당시 거의 100달러 가까이 갔던 주가가 지금은 19달러 수준입니다. 이런 종목들은 정말 크게 무너질 수 있고, 엔비디아도 시장과 상관없이 무너질 가능성이 높다고 봅니다. 지금 말씀드릴 수 있는 건 여기까지입니다.
타이밍을 잡는 건 역시 어렵습니다. 올해 이 방송은 아마 이번이 마지막일 것 같습니다. 거래일도 이제 이틀밖에 남지 않았네요. 덧붙일 말씀이 있으신가요?
특별히 더 할 말은 없습니다. 다만 지금은 정말 조심해야 한다고 말씀드리고 싶습니다. 지난 7년간 이 시장은 좀처럼 내려가질 않았고, 그건 정말 놀라운 일이었습니다. 그래도 제가 보기에 지금 보이는 열기, 강세 심리, 모든 지표가 과매수 상태라는 점을 고려하면 아래로 큰 충격이 올 위험이 있습니다. 그러니 앞으로는 아주 아주 아주 조심하셔야 합니다. 또 하나 경고하고 싶은 게 있습니다. 강세장은 열광과 함께 끝난다는 점입니다. 시장이 6~7년 동안 곧장 올랐는데도 우리는 그런 극적인 도취와 열광을 경험하지 못했습니다. 그런데 트럼프 당선 이후 모든 일이 벌어질 거라는 기대가 그 열광을 불러왔고, 그래서 시장이 상당한 조정에 취약해질 수 있다고 봅니다.
이런 상황은 내년에 좋은 기회를 만들어 줄 것 같습니다. 여름에 사라졌던 변동성이 다시 돌아왔고, 이는 트레이딩하기 좋은 환경입니다. 제가 마지막으로 강조하고 싶은 건, 우리가 '변동성이 없는 시대'를 끝내고 있다는 겁니다. 이번 랠리에서 VIX가 다시 내려간 건 알지만, 중앙은행들이 이제 개입을 줄이면서 변동성이 더 커질 가능성이 높습니다. 중앙은행은 그동안 변동성을 없애려고 애써 왔는데, 앞으로는 시장이 훨씬 더 요동치는 시기를 맞게 될 겁니다.
말씀 나눠 주셔서 감사합니다. 저와 시청자 여러분 모두 내년에도 좋은 한 해 되시길 바랍니다.
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