저자: MikeSwanson · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 주식 포트폴리오를 거의 전량 청산하고 GEO Group 한 종목만 보유 중이라는 13F 공시를 소개하며, 이것이 랠리 이탈이 너무 이른 것인지 분석한다. 버리의 매도 내역: 애플(포트폴리오의 약 17~18%)을 포함해 브리스톨마이어스, 구글, 시그나, 메타 등 주요 기술·헬스케어주를 전량 청산했다. 버리의 과거 포지션 흐름: 2016~2018년 현금 보유, 2018년 12월 조정 시 재진입, 2020년 3월 폭락 시 대규모 매수(약 4억 달러), 포트폴리오 10억 달러 돌파 후 작년 하반기부터 청산 시작, 현재는 사실상 현금 포지션. S&P500 기술적 분석: 연초 고점 이후 약세장이며 현재 4,300선 부근으로 반등해 200일 이동평균선에 닿아 있다. 저항선 돌파 여부를 9월 후반까지 지켜봐야 한다고 봄. 연준 피벗 기대는 채권시장이 뒷받침하지 않아 회의적. 결론: 버리의 이탈은 다소 이르지만 실수라고 보기는 어렵다. 대규모 자금을 운용하는 입장에서 조기 청산은 합리적이다. 단기 밈주식 매매가 시장을 움직이고 있어 랠리는 추가 상승 가능성이 있다. 출연자 전망: 단기적으로 랠리가 더 갈 수 있으나 지속 여부는 불확실하며, 9월 후반 이전에 판단하기 어렵다고 본다.
다듬은 글
mike swanson wall street window here well michael bury has gotten off the stock market rally uh according to filings he's had it made make he runs a hedge fund he's got to file his positions uh every quarter he's liquidated his entire portfolio except for one stock uh and it's only a three million dollar position for him so he's gotten off the stock market rally this is him if you don't know he's the character that was in the big short movie uh and made billions shorting subprime mortgages and that made him famous people follow his market moves now he's been bearish overall on the financial markets and he made some big warnings last year uh in the first half of the year that the market would roll over and there'd be you know big troubles to come uh but at times he's gone long too and he has been long on this market rally owning stuff like apple and i'll show you what he sold and i'll show you the stock that he is holding on to as is one solo position then we'll figure out uh is he right or wrong to get off this market rally as he's done uh well let's look at the this is the one stock that he still owns uh geocorp it's a prison company and when he released the filing monday people saw it and they soared in to buy it so just the news that he's an owner of it triggered a lot of people to follow suit but here's what he sold apple was making up 17 of his portfolio almost 18 liquidated the entire position bristol myers liquidated brook holdings liquidated discovery liquidated it google liquidation cigna liquidated meta liquidation um eventive liquidation and next start broadcasting liquidation so he was playing a lot of the popular some of the popular tech stocks the leaders of the past couple years the apples the googles um and mana but he's out uh he's not a believer obviously in the stock market rally that we're going through or else he would still be holding on now he's as i said he has been someone that trades this is his um reported uh value of the portfolio and how it's changed over the years basically he at times he'll have very little money at work and at other times a huge amount of money at work and now he's basically gone back to having almost nothing so you can see what kind of happened here from 2016 to 2018 it's pretty much in cash out of the market and then after the mark and then he started to get back a little bit in december 2018 if you remember the stock market went through a 20 correction so he used that to start to get back in and then when the stock market uh had crashed in in march 2020 with the lockdowns with the shutdowns then he started to get back in in a big way up to close to 400 million dollars worth of stocks and then uh the portfolio grew uh and reached over a billion dollars and he then began to liquidate uh in the second half of last year and and and and now uh it sometimes he had some short positions and puts and this sort of thing hedges but now he is essentially returned to essentially a cash position and this is not that shocking because he's made several tweets uh mocking the speculation in the stock market making warnings of one sort or the other so he is doing with his money what he has been warning people about with his tweets he openly mocked uh the megal uh magic empire stock arise of the past two weeks even though it's risen up to be one of the most popular stocks to trade um among people because it's had a lot of volatility in it but is he right is he right is the real important question for you and me to be getting uh this you know bearish on the market and doubtful about this market rally well let's look at the s p 500 right now so it had a it fell you know into june um and then it's rallied back up to roughly right around 4 300 as i'm doing this video it essentially has rallied back up into its 200 day moving average while being below it for most of the year is now rallied back up into it now you know people say i i don't think it's useful you'll hear this in financial media oh bear markets when the stock market's down 20 percent and then when it gets back above being down 20 percent you're in a bull market that's pretty useless because once you're down that much or the market's down that much it's kind of silly to say oh now it's a bear market after i've lost 20 percent of my money it's more important to er to analyze the price trend of the market in a bear and full cycle are long term cycles and in between you get tops and bottoming processes that can take months sometimes a year to actually play out whether those long term tops and bottoms especially bottoms are much more rare so when it comes to that i used simple stage analysis it's a technical analysis philosophy where you look at instead of the day-to-day price action you look at how the long-term 200-day and 150-day moving averages are trending so when they're going sideways after a substantial decline you're in a stage one basing phase in a stage two bull market the moving averages slope up and the price of the market trades above those moving averages and typically we'll test it those moving averages once or twice a year for a great buying opportunity now in a bear market it goes below those moving averages and then you'll get a rally back to them which is resistance and if the market can't sustain a big rally after that then it will roll over and continue to decline so with that in mind in my way of seeing these things the market has been in a bear market since it peaked out in january and is now having a counter trend rally back up into those critical long-term moving averages it hasn't you know broken through it in a meaningful way it can get back above it and it could very well trade around the moving average or above it slightly uh for several weeks before we can determine whether this is really going into a bull market or simply rolling back over that won't be something we may not know until the second half of september or c i should say but i'm also very skeptical um that you know just because the market is up to this level we should get all excited and i know people are saying oh the pen the fed's going to pivot and this and that but that's not backed up in the bond market that's that and the same people are saying that inflation was transitory a year ago and then you know obviously that that was wrong and it's led to much of the problems we've we've been seeing all year uh so yeah so is is is he too late to get off well i don't think the market is going to drop immediately right here so i would say he is early getting off of this rally i do think the rally can run some more it's just we'll have to see if this is for real or not it's gonna we probably will be able to determine that uh for for several weeks but i think he did get off early on the rally that i do think but is that a mistake for him to have done that not necessarily because it's actually impossible to time the exact day or price point that a rally ends at so for someone who's got that massive amount of money at work in the markets getting out early makes sense to me because if you were to try to get out later you know do mass selling of hundreds of millions of dollars that could be a very difficult situation you don't want to be selling on the downside such massive positions when you're selling could in fact that that big could influence the some of the stocks so um you know i i think for him he's probably you know i'm not doubting what he's doing uh but what i'm seeing is individual traders in the market that are playing this rally they seem to be short-term orientated based on the stocks that have been going up the most so when we look at the market today the best buy is is one of the top gainers of the day uh and and the megal stock was the play of last week so these are this is reminiscent these meme stocks this type of meme stock trading is basically done by short-term day traders these aren't people that are buying these stocks for the most part thinking oh i'm going to hold these for a long-term investment they are in for the short-term swings day trading or trading over a couple day period um and short covering is is being influenced much like the first quarter of 2021 um so it's an interesting moment we're in i think these kind you know more the money will probably rotate into some other mean plays and this could this sort of process could type of trading could could last for the rest of this month so interesting times this market i wanted to tell you uh what michael bury was doing it's always interesting to see what he is doing in the markets now let me tell you this um i personally am not a meme stock trader or a day trader i i find it hard to try to trade based on one day's price action i find that difficult to do um but i have a stock trading pattern that look i've been trading since the 1990s and this is the single most consistent pattern i've ever used uh it it provides a good entry point with the most upside and i did a video about this pattern uh i think it was two weeks ago i call it the twofold formula i will link to that video in the description of this video and i recommend that you go to that and watch that video in in that video there's also an entire pdf book that's free uh in the description of that video so you can even read about it and see the examples and actually just as important understand why the pattern works um so always be learning in the markets now i do videos about all sorts of topics economy real estate news topics history topics got lots of interest if you want more stock marketing information for me hit the like button down there to make more videos like this and if you're new to me on youtube hit the subscribe button hit the bell and then youtube will send you an alert as soon as the next video is up for you to watch and be talking with you later
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