저자: WallStreetWindow진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리의 테슬라 관련 트윗(공매도 포지션은 없지만 해야 한다는 뉘앙스)을 계기로, 현재 약세장이 2009년 이후 제로금리·QE 기반 통화 체제의 종료 과정이라는 진행자의 해석을 설명하는 영상. 결론: 진행자는 테슬라에 포지션은 없지만 굳이 고른다면 공매도 쪽이며, 전반적으로 S&P500은 6월 저점 부근에서 횡보할 가능성이 커 단기 반등 매수는 실익이 적다고 본다. 테슬라 기술적 분석: 약 2개월간 270달러(지지)~310달러(저항) 박스권. 270 이탈 시 6월 저점 방향 하락, 310 종가 돌파 시 랠리 기대. 버리 트윗 해석: 'unfettered narrative'(연준이 시장을 떠받친다는 서사)가 붕괴 중이라는 의미로 해석. 진행자는 혁명 같은 표현은 다소 과장이라고 봄. 거시 환경: 2009년 이후 금리 인하·양적완화로 주가가 오르던 서사가 끝나고, 물가 상승 때문에 연준이 금리를 낮추기 어려운 상태로 전환. 영국의 감세·지원책이 채권·파운드 하락을 낳아 역효과가 났고, 금리 인상 논의까지 나온다고 언급. 현금 대안: 1년물 국채 약 4.15%, 3개월물 약 3.24%를 60일 단위로 롤오버하는 무위험 전략이 주식에서 자금을 빼는 경쟁 자산이 되었다고 설명. 투자자 행동: 피델리티 주문흐름 페이지에서 밈주식 등 고위험 종목 매수가 계속되던 점을 과거 신호로 언급했으나, 해당 페이지가 제거되어 더 이상 확인이 어렵다고 함. 매수 우위로 바뀌면 약세장 종료 신호로 볼 것이라고 함. 출연자 전망: 진행자의 개인 견해로, 단기 바닥 확인 전까지는 신중한 관망 입장.
다듬은 글
hey this is my swanse Wall Street window I got a couple things I want to talk to you about today um first of all this is a tweet that Michael burry recently made about Tesla stock he is the famous star I guess you'd call it of the movie The Big Short he made over a billion dollars well over a billion dollars shooting subprime Securities in 2008 he was running a hedge fund and made a killing and that made him famous and people follow what he says and talks about and here is a tweet he made about Tesla and he said if I am tweeting this you can bet I am not short yet but I should be and he talks about uh links to an article about a Tesla mega pack Factory that caught fire at a substation in California um I don't think the story is really important but it's more what he's implying in his tweet and that is he's not short Tesla but he should be short Tesla does that mean me and you should be betting against Tesla stock well here's Tesla today stock trading around 279 dollars a share it's been in a trading range now for almost two months between 310 as resistance 270 as support uh when a stock is in a Range like this it tends to make a big move you know if it breaks closes below support it'll just start dumping back down to the June lows or if it breaks out by closing above 310 you can expect a rally he says we should sure the the real the real thing is we are in a bear Market you're seeing the stock market decline and it's down again today uh so if you if you I don't have a position right now one way or the other Tesla but if I was going to take one I would be shorting it because the General market conditions and that takes me to the second tweet I want to talk with you about that he did and that is this one there is risk growing in many sectors The unfettered Narrative feeding itself until the absurdity explodes reviewing the Folly to all and easily starting a revolution now what is he talking about here in some ways I think this is a little bit hyperbolic I don't think we're all in the verge of a revolution but what is the unfettered narrative I would say that narrative is coming apart and there are people that see it happening and he was at the Forefront of having the foresight to see what was going to happen in 2008.
so what is really happening now what is the most important factor in the stock market it's so easy to focus on stock market price action you you look at the market you see it's up and down that's what catches your attention the television or the financial media online on the radio on YouTube no matter where we'll try to give an explanation of the market action why did it go up or down that given day because people want to know that but simple explanations are not really what drives things and what was the narrative well since 2009 since the crash that Michael burry made a fortune betting against subprime Securities their narrative has been that the Federal Reserve has your back on Market Corrections the FED would lower interest rates or increase quantitative easing Bond buying operations and then the market would go up and interest rates got so low in fact that we were even told that okay yeah stocks can have high p e ratios they may have strange valuations in in May and some people may say it's a bubble but because interest rates are low and at zero it makes sense to keep buying the stocks because there's no where else to get yield and people have got to put their money somewhere and that narrative only increased in 2020 when the stock market crashed that spring the FED lowered rates again more QE the market went up more as a result even went up to new highs and then had a great 2021 and that narrative provided the justification to keep buying stocks no matter but how high they went up and yes it got a bit absurd you saw that with so-called meme stocks the game stock the AMC and other stocks uh of similar nature and um and they peeked out uh but now the absurdity um is that simply exploding overnight it's more slowly dying their narrative is over um and and as he writes in the first sentence the risk is growing that's why almost everything in the financial markets is now fallen the only thing that has gone up uh that's you know in the past couple weeks is the US dollar Index almost every currency in the world has been declining even gold and silver have been declining even oil now has been falling in the past couple weeks stock market was already going down bond funds are already going down but we're seeing uh what is what this is the process of the the the the the the the the end uh really of what had been a monetary regime came from 2009 that ended his ending now where the FED is no longer lowering rates to make markets go up or doing QE to make markets go up because the cost now is high inflation and frankly the policies do not work you're seeing that in England where the government there announced we're lowering taxes and we're going to do a payment system for people to help them in this time of rising Energy prices in Europe and their bond market fell their the pound fell uh to cause the situation to actually get worse blow back on the policies and now there's talk that they're going to have to raise interest rates in England because of of what's happened in the currency market so there are no the easy solutions and easy money uh ways of doing things is over and now what we're seeing is the process of of of that unwinding and as we enter a new you know Financial era that's what this bear Market represents and um you know it's not exploding like in one day it's more of an unwinding process now um the thing about stocks like Tesla is over the past couple months I have at time well let me show you this first it's kind of really will drive the point I'm trying to make home to you these are treasury bond yields and let me ask you this if on January the 1st I could have told you I can guarantee that you can make four percent this year in your retirement accounts and your investment accounts now with no risk at all uh would you have taken that if you could jump back in time now to January the 1st you probably would say yes sign me up for a four percent return with zero risk I want that because look what's happened is everything is dropped and now you can get that you can get a guaranteed four percent return how by putting your money in a one year treasury bond you can make 4.15 yield um if you do that and that's one of the reasons why the stock market is fine because when rates were zero they no longer are zero and now people can take money out of stocks and into treasury bonds they don't even have to put it into a risky bond fund which can drop in value they can put it in a treasury bond of of actually uh three month duration and get three point two four percent or a 60-day treasury bond and just keep rolling that money over every 60 days until the stock market declines are over with and then put the money to work pretty uh easy strategy with zero risk people are doing that and that is competition for stock so that story you were told 10 years ago is that oh rates are zero so don't so uh you could you everyone has to put money in stocks it's no longer true we're in a new monetary regime or or or or making the transition into one now stock Brokers are doing funny things so for months at from time to time I would point out that on Fidelity you could track the top buys and sells every single day in real time and we were looking at this and watching that over the past couple months even though the stock market had been going down Traders were continuing to double down on risky stocks often buying meme stocks that are complete in total garbage the Fidelity had a list of the top 30 uh bought and sold stocks and these meme stocks would regularly appear on the risk that was evidence to us that small Traders uh were still taking extreme risks in the market they were not being cautious they were acting as if this was not a barrel Market but this was still 2021.
that was a sign for us to be cautious to ignore people who are calling for giant rallies and new bull markets and saying this is only correction because typically at the end of a bear Market people get cautious no one they weren't doing that on Fidelity and what Fidelity has done is something very sneaky they have gotten rid of that page with all the order flow I think they figured out this is really embarrassing to show the entire world that our customers are buying risky stocks and losing their behind in this market so you know they replaced it with this page and I can't show it to you anymore all we can see now are the top six positions and it's not very helpful Tesla is number one and these ETFs and it's just not meaningful but Tesla Remains the top bought stock today period on Fidelity we know that uh really nothing new though um so I just wanted if I if you notice why don't I talk about Fidelity anymore and that order flow page because they basically taken away covered it up they don't want us to see any more the recklessness that their customers engage in I want to see when they stop doing that and and do more selling than buying as a sign at the fair market is over but they you know maybe we can load this up and we'll see you know see that one day but not now so interesting time in the markets um you know when we look at the S P 500 here today we're basically right on the June low I know that's going to cause a lot of people to try to buy you know looking for a double bottom and and maybe the market can go up tomorrow maybe the market can go up a week maybe we can get a rally of a back up to 3 800 or something for people to Chase and get the opportunity to play a double bottom but it may not even do that it may just languish here so um it's not worth playing I'm not playing it I'm not looking to buy it too I really think the bottom is in short term you know trying to buy short-term rallies that might only last a few hours that's a tough way to make money and um I'm much more content to be cautious in this market environment so look uh it is the first time you've seen me on YouTube hit like uh so I know you're out there and hit the Subscribe button and hit the Bell next to it and then YouTube will send you an alert as soon as my next video is up and I'll be talking with you later
Comments 0