저자: EricWilkinson · 외국인
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Eric Wilkinson은 2016년 12월 29일 시장 코멘터리에서 경제지표와 원자재·지수·개별주 흐름을 짚으며 단기 조정 가능성을 강조했다. [경제지표] 실업수당 청구건수는 26.5만 건으로 예상(27.7만)보다 낮았으나 채용 증가를 뜻하지 않는다고 보았다. 도매재고는 0.9%로 예상(0.1%)을 웃돌아 연말 재고 소진이 안 된 신호로 해석하며 소매판매 둔화 우려를 제기했다. 천연가스 재고는 2370억 입방피트 감소(예상 2190억)로 한파 영향을 언급했다. 원유 재고는 600만 배럴 증가로 예상(130만 배럴 감소)과 반대 방향으로 나왔다. [원자재·금리] WTI 원유는 배럴당 54달러 저항선 아래에서 약세로 보았으며 54.24달러를 라인인 더 샌드로 제시했다. 금은 18달러 상승하며 하락 추세가 단기적으로 깨졌다고 보고 1175달러 저항 테스트를 예상했다. 채권은 9일 이동평균선 위에 안착하지 못해 단기 약세 가능성을 언급했다. [지수] 다우는 9일 이동평균선을 하회했고 나스닥은 16포인트 하락해 일중 저점 부근이었다. 나스닥 5000선과 다우 20000선에 대한 과도한 기대(유포리아)를 경계하며 조정이 먼저 올 것으로 보았고, 나스닥 4800선(포인트 오브 컨트롤) 하락 가능성을 제시했다. S&P 미니 선물도 가치영역 상단 위에 있으나 장 막판 매도로 일중 저점 근처라고 짚었다. 스마트머니가 주식에서 금 등 안전자산으로 이동하는 징후로 해석했다. [개별 종목] 엔비디아(NVDA)는 하향 조정 이후 변동성이 확대되어 1월물 93 풋 매도와 120 콜 매도 스트랭글을 설정했고 222달러를 수취했다. 52주 고점 아래 유지를 기대하며 손익분기는 약 91달러 부근이라고 설명했다. 엔비디아에 대해서는 연말 홀리데이 판매 서프라이즈 가능성으로 상방 강세 입장을 밝혔다(PC 수요 회복 근거). FXE(유로 ETF)는 2월물 98 풋·106 콜 스트랭글로 72센트를 수취했고 방향성 가정은 없다고 밝혔다. [리스크·후속] 방향성 베팅보다 변동성 축소(볼래틸리티 크러시)를 노린 옵션 전략 중심이며, 개인 위험 성향에 따라 달라질 수 있다고 강조했다. 다음 웨비나는 커버드콜 주제로 예고했다. [출연자 전망] 단기적으로 주식 조정 후 상승 가능성을 열어두었으나 조정 이후에야 상승이 시작된다고 보는 신중한 관점이다.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to prot Trader strategies Market commentary for Thursday December the 29th my name is Eric Wilkinson some of you may recognize me as the Wolfman from CNBC Fox Business or even the Wall Street Journal for my commentary on everything from economic to geopolitical and market analysis please keep in mind that everything that we talk about in these daily Market commentaries is not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these Securities or strategies at the end of the day we're here to teach you some different strategies that you can implement into your portfolios but please do that in your own way the reason why I can't give you a recommendation on a particular stock or strategy is because I don't know your risk parameters I don't know what's in your portfolios and therefore what I'm doing could be counterintuitive to what you are already doing having that out of the way let's get this on uh we have had some economic data here in the United States not so much across the pond but uh here in the United States we had unemployment claims come in at 265,000 lower than the expected 277,000 uh some might might believe that that is a good thing just is people uh not really looking for unemployment right now but anyway it doesn't necessarily mean they're being hired uh onto wholesale premium wholesale inventories came in at 9% was expected to be .1% so that increased more than expected that to me I usually don't look at these wholesale inventory numbers very very uh very much but being a holiday season that's a little bit of a red flag to me because I would have expected to see some more uh draw down in inventories heading into the new year people want to get rid of their inventory so that they don't have that cost of carry into the new year that isn't being reflected in this number so that could lead me to believe that they ramped up production getting into the holiday season and just didn't move inventory which would lead me to believe that maybe uh retail sales is not doing as well as they would have expected then we had uh natural gas storage come in at a draw down of 237 billion cubic feet was expected to be a draw down of 219 billion cubic feet so a little bit more of a draw down than was expected there but uh we have seen a lot of cold temperatures across the Midwest and in the northern states so uh even down south uh towards New Mexico Arizona uh has seen unseasonably cold weather if you will and then on to crude oil inventories we had a build of6 million barrels was expected to be a draw down of 1.3 million barrels again uh expecting holiday traffic things of that nature we should have seen more of a draw down there but crude oil inventory is surprising to the upside on a build uh that brings us to the crude oil chart here which is forcl crude oil just slightly a negative territory by 19 cents 20 cents right now but back below that $54 a barrel area it was trading up and above there before that data point came out it was actually trading right on the highs as that data was released and the market has since come off from there uh we have come off that low a little bit right after that initial sell off that could be a little bit of short covering going on but below that 54 a barrel area and I talked about that resistance area being around 5424 so uh that's kind of a Line in the Sand if you will uh then on to Gold Futures gold Futures surprisingly the upside up about 1718 doll today on the highs as we speak for the most part uh looks like the Bears have uh lost control of this as we've gotten above that 9-day moving average solidly now and looking to go up and test that 50-day moving average so the downward Trend here is at least broken in the near term so uh I would expect it to want to come up and try and test this 1175 area which is a uh a nice area of which is going to act as the next next resistance area I should say to be tested so uh I could expect to see that relatively soon I think it's going to go up there and try and hit that um onto the bonds bonds waning a little bit almost unchanged for the most part but this dogee even though we've gotten above that 9-day moving average it tested it several times as we were talking about this on the daily Market commentaries yesterday blasted above and settled above there but today's dogee is not looking too good uh could easily start to see it slip tomorrow and as these start to expand a little bit wider we could see a little bit of uh movement to the downside in the bonds uh in the near Futures any in the near future anyway uh but the reason why bonds are down is because yesterday we had or or up I should say yesterday we had a big down move especially late in the day I talked about it on uh the market commentary how we saw the Big Move off the economic data yesterday with the uh pinning home sales we saw a blast down again in the late afternoon as a lot of these hedge funds were getting out that was that's atypical of big money moving uh moving around the markets we see it early in the morning and then late in the day and in the middle there's just not a whole lot of going things going on it's mostly retail Traders I talked about this week being a down we week as we start to see some of these guys cover and re uh if you will their portfolios to rebalance them um and I think that's what we're going to be seeing going on yesterday the Dow Jones did settle below that nday moving average which was acting as support on the way up but now that we're below that it's going to be really interesting to see how today reacts uh and whether or not the Bears take control of that market and keep it below that 9-day moving average because it was just a smidge under yesterday then on to the NASDAQ NASDAQ down about 16 points again continuing to the downside we are pretty much on the lows of the day in the NASDAQ looks like we are on the lows actually and pulling away from that historical 5,000 Mark I've talked about this I think we're going to see more of a correction before it actually takes off there there's just too much Euphoria around those two numbers numbers between the Dow 20,000 the NASDAQ 5000 those historical marks uh are not looking very good also the yesterday's settlement below this value area high leads one to believe that we could easily see the correction come down here to R 4,800 which is the point of control anytime the market goes up tests above that settles back below it it is usually an indication that the market is going to want to Trend down to the point of control then on to the - mini S&P - mini S&P is solidly above that value area high uh but again yesterday's late day selloff really pushed the market down and we are pretty close to the lows of the day as we speak it as well overall markets equities down uh gold pushing up you know all of these things bonds rallying a lot of these things are starting to look like the people are starting to maybe move some money out some smart money is moving out of the equities and into the safe haven of things like gold and uh other Commodities along those lines this is the e- mini snps very close to the lows of the day for the most part overnight trade pretty you know lackluster at best right before we started today's overnight session was when we printed those lows so we could easily see this Market want to come in there and print those lows during the day session that has uh has pretty much always been the case the market does not like it when the overnight session has printed a high or a low it it has a tendency to want to be the big dog if you will and uh have those prints within the day session of open market trading on a few things that I've done I talked about Nidia yesterday or the day before maybe it was yesterday that it got downgraded some uh funds were talking about how they thought n video was going to go down towards this 90 area uh I I'm still on the camp that the I'm these are one of the few markets that I'm actually bullish I think that they're going to surprise to the upside uh with holiday sales I think a lot of people are starting to switch to these PCS back to the PC you know at one point in time we were saying the PC is dead because everybody was going to these uh uh laptops and um the you know smartphones were going to take over all of this but the more infrastructure around these PCS you know they're just really robust for a lot of these games that are coming out the the uh tablets can't keep up with it and you can do a lot more with the home PC they're just a lot more robust uh in nature for uh what these new video games are pulling so uh you can't really do it on a laptop necessarily unless you're going to be spending you know $5,000 or more whereas you could get a nice PC for under $1,000 and it will perform probably better than what that laptop will so I lot I think a lot of these kids are are starting to venture back towards that anyway with Nvidia it is down on the day but um it's had a big move I decided to put it in an iron or uh sorry a strangle which is very similar to the iron Condor but it's not a defined risk strategy uh because we've gotten this uh expansion in volatility due to that downgrade yesterday so we saw that expansion really happen yesterday I'm looking for a little bit of that contraction and volatility so that's why I went into that strangle and Nvidia I went in and did the January and sold the 93 puts and the 120 calls to create that strength Le that's right in line with what I talk about in these webinars the rules right around it perfectly set up with Nvidia and I collected $222 for that strategy so what I'm looking for is it to stay just below that uh 52 week high or it's probably a historical high for NVIDIA I mean it's had such a massive rally and then uh just above this volume node right here with those 93s so uh my break even is right there at that volume note because I've collected such a big credit I actually have it all the way to 91 is going to be right around where my break even is so that fits in line with all of those rules that I talk about in those daily Market commentaries then on to the other trade that I did fxe decided the same thing fxe has pretty high implied volatility but it looks like it might be wanting to come off a little bit it's not really gone anywhere uh so I did another uh strangle around round fxe and went into the February this time and did the 98 puts and the 106 calls and collected 72 cents for that I did that one a little bit smaller not a big fan of this contract but uh and I don't really have a directionality assumption on it but I did this one a little bit smaller so uh and I wasn't able to collect a real chunky credit like I was with Nvidia so just a little bit smaller credit going to try and take advantage of a little bit of volatility Crush if we can get some of that so that's about all I got for you guys today tomorrow's webinar is going to be on the covered calls so that's a really good one especially when markets are at alltime highs we start seeing a bit of a correction that will help lower your basis on these uh stocks that we have in our portfolio or ETFs if you have some of those we'll be able to lower our basis lower our risk and uh I'll show you the probabilities around that how you can be successful with using a covered call strategy and increase your yield over time all right that's all I got for you guys today and if you can't take that take it easy
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