저자: EricWilkinson · 외국인
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2017년 12월 26일 방송으로, 미국·유럽 휴장일로 거래량이 적은 가운데 유가 급등과 금·비트코인 등락을 짚고 옵션 전략 위주로 설명한 시황 코멘터리다. 유가: 리비아 송유관 폭파로 하루 약 9만 배럴(생산량의 약 10%) 차질이 생겨 WTI가 60달러 부근까지 오른 것으로 설명했다. 다만 공급 차질 규모는 작다고 평가했다. 금: 금 선물이 약 9달러 올라 피보나치 레벨 위로 올라섰으나, 지지·저항보다 거래량 집중 가격대(Point of Control)에 끌리는 '자석' 효과로 본다고 했다. 본인은 GLD 숏을 보유 중이며 목표는 2120(12.21 표기 추정)이고 손절 가능성을 언급했다. 비트코인: 금요일 저점 이후 약 1700달러 반등했으며 변동성이 매우 크다고 평가했다. 주식: 다우 소폭 약세, 나스닥은 약 22포인트 하락, 채권 금리 약 20bp 하락(채권 가격 상승)과 VIX 두 자릿수 복귀를 언급했다. S&P 선물은 보합이다. 애플: 매장 실적 부진 뉴스로 주가가 하락해 50일 이동평균선에서 지지를 확인했다며, 1월 만기 162.5 풋을 매도해 프리미엄을 확보했다. 최대이익 50% 청산을 목표로 한다. 기타 포지션: 엔비디아, 페이팔, UPS, 베라이즌 등 숏 풋 포지션 일부를 최대이익의 50% 부근에서 정리할 계획이라고 했다. 연말 쎄타 감소를 노린 전략이라고 설명했다. 리스크: 개별 종목 추천이 아니며 투자자 리스크 성향을 알 수 없으니 본인 방식으로 참고하라고 명시했다. 과거 성과가 미래를 보장하지 않는다는 면책도 덧붙였다.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to pro trader strategies market commentary formed Monday or sorry no Tuesday December the 26th my name is Eric Wilkinson some of you may recognize me as a wolf man from CNBC Fox business or even the Wall Street Journal for my commentary on everything from economic to geopolitical and market analysis please keep in mind that everything that we talk about in these market commentaries is not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities or strategies at the end of the day we're here to teach you some different strategies that you can implement into your portfolios but please do that in your own way the reason why I can't give you a recommendation on a particular stock or strategies because I don't know your risk parameters I don't know what's in your portfolios and therefore what I'm doing could be counterintuitive to what you are already doing and please remember the past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results having the idea out of the way let's get it on I hope everybody had a great extended weekend and that's why we didn't have Monday right for a trading day it is going to still be a quiet day in the markets because although we and the United States only take one day off for a bank holiday for Christmas the rest of the European region for the most part is taking today off as well we have an Italian bank holiday Great Britain Canon Canadian and German bank holidays today so even pretty much just everybody across the board in Europe is taking an extra get an extra day good to be European I guess anyway that's about it for that so onto the overall markets we are gonna see a little bit lighter volume although crude oil is moving quite a bit higher today a one data point that I did miss on economic data plane was Richmond Manufacturing Index came in at 20 expected to be 22 but as you can see with crude oil moving higher today by about a dollar 31 right now almost into that 60 handle trying to get up there today it looks like it might action make it there and the reason why we're seeing this spike here is a lot of people are grabbing on to the fact that there's disruption happening in Libya as some Libyan fraction or something like that some armed militants went out there and blew up a pipeline and it is going to disrupt the flow of oil by ninety thousand barrels a day Libya produces about ninety or sorry nine hundred thousand barrels a day so about a ten percent production cut coming out of Libya now if you remember Libya and Nigeria are one of the two libya being one of the two Libyan Nigeria or the to basically countries that don't have limits according to OPEC so they've gotten off that hook of limiting production so all the rest of the OPEC members have to kind of stick by a production schedule Libya and Nigeria do not have that same clause in their OPEC production limits so they can produce as much as they want but it's really only a ten percent cut but everybody grasping onto that disruption and you know moving crude oil higher I also people are talking about a you know supplies coming back and this disruption really could create more of you know lack of supply throughout the world but in ninety thousand barrels a day is really a drop in the bucket to be quite honest that not that being said you know we're also seeing a lot of this oil you know with the inventories going down the oil is actually being refined so those inventories are rising but those aren't the headline numbers and people are grabbing on to that and really pushing crude oil higher so it's up quite a bit today gold futures moving higher as well up nine dollars got back above that fit level which isn't going to like I've talked about this several times this isn't going to act as a support and resistance like a normal Fibonacci would because it's lining up with this point of control which is where the most time in volume has been spent because it lines up there it's really acting as a magnet so it's gonna kind of slice through that like butter like we've seen back here that wasn't acting much as a support resistance that you can really trade off of necessarily you didn't kind of trade it to want to come back to that level moreso than having it create support and resistance once it gets above it acting as support and things of that nature so just keep that in mind it's more of a magnet but we have gotten above that not happening out my short GLD position at all I was looking for GLD to go down to around 2120 our sorry 12:21 was a target I had on gold so that might be out of the picture now and I may cut my losses on that particular trade as of right now alright so I'm going to have to go through these as we go this is an interesting I think I've talked about this before this is Long Island iced tea corporation they basically came out and talked about switching over pivoting to some blockchain stuff and changing their name to long blockchain and that caused this market to really spike quite a bit higher okay on to gold futures like I've mentioned gold futures where all my charts are all messed up gold futures are up let's talk about Bitcoin blockchain moving onto blockchain again Bitcoin out quite a bit today up $1700 as you can see after that low we saw on Friday the market has rebounded quite a bit since then you know I mean you could say it rebounded since Friday's lows this is one of the most volatile products I think I've ever seen but Bitcoin futures up quite a bit today bonds up as well as we're seeing a little bit of pull back in some of the equities but as you can see with bonds up 20 basis points we got the VIX back into double digits because we're seeing some of this negative or downside pressure in the equities you can see the Dow Jones down about 32 points right now it looks like it's a green bar but that's because we are higher than where we opened on the day at this point we've got the Nasdaq off by about 22 points but well off the lows of the day it did look like it was going to come down here today and test the value area high got pretty close to it it's really kind of lining up with this top right here so this is really the area that's going to act as support resistance right there around 64 30 so that is the line in the sand for a support resistance it's not going to be as much this value very high right now but it will act this whole area of this area about 20 points is going to act as a support for any of the bulls now we've on to the emini S&P e-mini S&P s unchanged for all intents and purposes right I mean we're only off by you know a quarter of a point but the overall markets pretty quiet in here almost no volume happening across the board in most of these markets now one of the trades that I have added and it is not Nvidia but I am looking at getting out of some of my Nvidia but I did add Apple to my portfolio it just wanted to take advantage of some high implied volatility volatility kind of spike it dropped quite a bit on some news that the stores weren't doing as well over the holiday season things that nature I think that people were still buying Apple phones and Apple watches and some of those other products so I decided to take advantage of this with some selling some puts in there you know it came down to tested this 50-day moving average so I think that that was a good test that the downside to think we're still going to be in this range for at least until we start seeing earnings and we do get the earnings right after this after this January expiration so I stayed in the January with this with the high implied volatility was able to get down to the 162 and a half strike so well below all of this support area you know it's gonna act as a support if it comes down and tested 165 area so pretty comfortable with these 162 and a half calls or sorry 162 and outputs that I sold so I went into the January like I said that it's going to expire in basically 24 days sold those January 162 and 1/2 calls or sorry 62 and a half puts sold to 162 and a puts for 95 cents I think it got a nice location on that looking for a bit of a rebound after this little pullback and gonna look to take 50% of my max profit a couple of other things I'm looking to get out of I was looking at trade out of my Nvidia of looking in my margin account I have on Verizon I have on some short puts in there that are really close to 50% of my max profit maybe even just slightly better squeezing everything out for a couple extra pennies at the end of the year here trying to increase my overall yield at the end of the year I have a tendency to do that when I go into December it's a little bit quieter market settles down and with those premiums settle selling strategies like to capture a little bit more of that theta decay so that's kind of what I'm doing right now so in I'm looking at getting out at Nvidia I'm also looking to get out of PayPal and what else was there UPS and a few other ones that I'm just kind of keeping an eye on that I'm really close on my 50% of my ex profit maybe slightly more than that I'm trying to squeeze out a couple extra pennies so keep your eye out for that tomorrow I'll talk about that if I get hit on any of those but as of right now the only thing that I've added or done my account is and an apple to my margin account okay so I hope everybody had a great extended weekend that's about all I got for you guys today Friday's webinar is going to be a really good one especially if you have a lot of stock in your portfolio and you're kind of worried about protecting the downside I'm going to show you how to set up but a lot of people go out there and buy puts to protect themselves to the downside and I'm going to show you how to create a collar in there if I actually get collars that way but with the hand signal create a collar in a portfolio so that you're not increasing what you really paid for that stock because when you just go out buy stock and then buy puts around that you increase what you paid for that overall stock so I'm gonna show you how to kind of isolate that a little bit better than just buying that protection and increasing what you paid for it which lowers your overall yield alright so check it out at pro trader strategies com and if you can't take that take it easy
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