저자: EricWilkinson · 외국인
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결론: 펜딩홈세일 부진으로 증시가 하락 압력을 받는 가운데, 연말 소비와 섹터 로테이션을 주시하되 특정 종목 추천은 하지 않는다는 시장 해설. 경제지표: 기존주택 펜딩홈세일이 예상치 +6%였으나 -2.5%로 발표돼 약 10개월 만의 최대 하락폭이었다. 연준 금리인상의 소비 위축 효과가 나타난 것으로 해석했다. 소비·리테일: 연말 쇼핑 시즌 소매판매에서 금리인상 효과가 드러날 수 있어 리테일 섹터에 부담이 될 수 있다고 봤다. 연준이 연말 이후까지 금리인상을 미뤘어야 했다는 견해를 밝혔다. 지수: 다우는 2만 포인트 근처에서 소폭 하락, 나스닥은 약 0.25% 하락해 직전 가치영역 고점(저항)을 밑돌고 있다. S&P 선물은 약 4포인트 하락. 지표 발표 직후 다우가 약 13포인트 급락했다. 원자재·채권·금: 원유는 배럴당 49달러대 핵심 구간. 금은 9일 이동평균선 근처에서 지지 여부를 보고 있으며, 채권 선물은 반등 중이다. 수급: 대형 펀드들의 리밸런싱으로 과다 상승 섹터 매도와 저평가 섹터 매수가 이어질 것이므로 며칠간 섹터 로테이션과 변동성이 커질 수 있다고 봤다. 개별 종목: 엔비디아는 하향 조정 소식 후 90달러 부근을 지지로 보는 펀드 견해가 언급됐고, 발언자는 엔비디아 등 PC 게이밍 관련주(EA, 마이크로소프트, 어도비 언급)에 강세 견해를 밝혔다. 닌텐도·플레이스테이션 관련 투자는 줄이는 방향을 제시했다. 브리스톨마이어스(BMY) 풋옵션과 필립모리스(MO) 스트랭글 포지션을 보유 중이라 정리를 고려한다고 했다. 리스크: 펀드 리밸런싱과 금리인상 여파로 단기 변동성 확대 가능성. 발언자는 개인별 리스크 성향을 모르므로 개별 추천은 하지 않는다고 명시했다. 출연자 전망: 연말 이후 소비 둔화 우려를 제기하며 단기 조정 가능성을 시사했으나, 예측 기간이 명확한 가격 목표는 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to protrader strategies Market commentary for Wednesday December the 28th my name is Eric Wilkinson some of you may recognize me as The Wolf Man from CNBC Fox Business or even the Wall Street Journal for my commentary on everything from economic to geopolitical and market analysis please keep in mind that everything that we talk about in these daily Market commentaries is not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these Securities or strategies at the end of the day we're here to teach you some different strategies that you can Implement into your portfolio but please do that in your own way the reason why I can't give you a recommendation on a particular stock or strategy is because I don't know your risk parameters I don't know what's in your portfolios and therefore what I'm doing could be counterintuitive to what you are already doing having that out of the way let's get this on uh the only economic data we got today was pending home sales came in at - 2.5% was expected to increase by 6% that was the biggest uh drop basically since the last 10 months that being said that's probably a bit of repercussions for the FED raising the interest rates that idea of increasing interest rates is to crimp spending fed got what they wished for and pending home sales not necessarily what the Market's looking for we're going to have to see if that increase in interest rates is going to show up in retail sales going into the holiday season because that could be uh a big Downer for the retail sector If the Fed was able to Crim spending going into uh the holiday season it's going to be the biggest part of their income for these retailers that's why they call the day after Thanksgiving Black Friday is because that's when the retailers go from red ink meaning a loss for the year into the black ink which means a profit for the year so uh that timing is what I've been talking about throughout these daily Market commentaries how they probably should wait until after this holiday season in order to raise those rates but you know they're not listening to me anyway on to the overall markets we've got crude oil right now coming just off their highs uh they were on their highs just a second ago as I started to gear up for this up 29 cents though and above that uh $49 a barrel area so that is a pretty key area as a matter of fact uh one of the lines in the sand that I saw was uh 24 or sorry 5424 was one of the uh lines that I had driven drawn there uh on a different chart on to Gold Futures gold Futures pushing a little bit higher they were you know obviously above that 9-day moving average after we saw the equities fall out of bed on that pending home sales number recovering uh you know coming back off off and you know testing that 9-day moving average to the downside if we can get above that for gold that should act as support on the way down the bond Futures up on the day about a half a point again they are above that nday moving average it seems like it's been back and forth battle to uh stay above and or below that depending on whether you're a bull or a bear but right now in the 149 handle just by two ticks with the bonds pushing higher Dow Jones Industrial Average is off just a little bit nine points opened really close 20 20 ticks away from the 20,000 Mark which was pretty significant this morning a lot of people were really talking that up hoping that we would get there today but with that pending home sales number we really uh kind of pulled away from that on to the NASDAQ NASDAQ off by about 14 points right now uh about a quar percent but back below this value area high which is going to be acting as resistance as you can see it's acted as resistance before uh now that it is back below that it will act as resistance again it traded above there yesterday came back off but uh settled below there so it's it's holding tight there then on the mini S smps down just four points on the day off the lows though for the most part it was looking pretty pretty shady for a while there they're only down um about 18 an 18th of a percent but down four points on the day pretty bearish Cloud over everything as we're starting to see a lot of these big funds rebalance their portfolios which means they're going to be selling a lot they've got to equal weight everything right so what happens is uh when a stock goes down they get underweighted in that sector but when a stock goes up quite a bit as we've seen across the board this year that becomes overweighted in that sector so they need to be selling off some of those more profitable stocks and adding to some of those ones in the sectors that are undervalued in a sense so we're going to start seeing that sector rotation these next couple of days so we could see a lot of volatility now the overall markets were up pretty good this morning but on that retail sale or on the uh existing or sorry pinning home sales number this is what happened we dropped from basically uh right around 2267 let's call it down to uh 22 54 so about a 13-point drop in a matter of a half an hour just off of that economic data now on to what I've done I haven't done a whole lot oh this is one thing that U Nvidia got downgraded today and some big fund basically said that they were going to be Trading down to 90 is where they thought that their spot was funny that it correlates to this volume node right there but anyway I'm I'm kind of fading this I'm looking at a couple of ideas for NVIDIA I'm bullish these stocks with Nvidia uh EA Sports Microsoft I'm just seeing a lot of people talk about how kids are kind of getting away from the PlayStations than Nintendos and going back to the home computer so people are getting that P PC setup so that they can have gaming computers that seems to be the new trend is what I'm starting to see so I don't think that the P PC is dead as a matter of fact I'd be pushing away from uh things like Nintendo PlayStation and putting my money towards these other companies Adobe Nvidia Microsoft because I think that the PC is alive and well uh then on to a couple of things that I'm looking at do I haven't done anything today but this is a trade that I have on right now I'm looking to take it off in uh Bristol Meer which ticker symble BM I have on the Jan 55 puts and originally sold them for around 60 cents but I'm trying to get out for about 50% of my Max profit I'm about a dime away on that uh but I just figured I'd go ahead and put in an order right there see if I uh could catch that trade uh going forward today then on to Altera Altera is ticker symbol m Mo this is another trade I have on but I have on a strangle in there and it's the jam 6471 strangles so it's the 64 puts and the 71 calls and I'm trying to get out of that it's about a nickel away right now so haven't gotten anything off today despite this pullback uh and leaving a couple of Trades and letting them run if we get more of a pullback later this week so that's all I got for you guys today this Friday we're going to to be doing a webinar on covered calls covered calls are going to be great for markets where we're at these historical highs you can start selling calls against that let those Decay lower your overall basis which lowers your overall risk and increases your yield in your portfolio all right so check that out go to protrader strategies.com and sign up if you can't take that take it easy
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